After last month’s excitement over stimulus plans, Chinese stocks now face mounting challenges as earnings have yet to pick up and heightened U.S. trade tensions loom. “Stock picking remains important with [the] headwind of tariffs, a weaker currency and persistent deflation,” Morgan Stanley chief China equity strategist Laura Wang and a team said in a report Thursday. For investment options, she referred to the firm’s survey of China stocks the investment bank’s analysts already cover. The firm screened for stocks that could outperform depending on which of three scenarios unfolded. Only the bear case accounted for significant U.S. tariffs and restrictions. The base and bull cases assumed the status quo in U.S.-China relations. The bear case also expects 1 trillion yuan, or $140 billion, in fiscal stimulus a year and MSCI China earnings per share growth of 3% this year and 5% next year. Morgan Stanley’s basket of bear case stocks only includes overweight-rated names with a dividend yield above 4% this year. They also have free cash flow yield above 4% from 2023 to 2025 and market capitalization above $2 billion, among other factors. The companies must not be on Morgan Stanley’s lists of stocks at a disadvantage from Republican policy and supply chain diversification. The only consumer name that made the list was Tingyi , a Hong Kong-listed company that owns instant noodles brand Master Kong. The company is also PepsiCo ‘s exclusive manufacturer and seller in China. Tingyi’s net profit in beverages rose nearly 26% in the first half of 2024 compared to a year ago, while that of instant noodles rose 5.4%. Morgan Stanley expects Tingyi’s earnings per share to grow 12% this year and 11% in 2025. Other Chinese companies that made Morgan Stanley’s bear case basket included two state-owned energy stocks: drilling company China Oilfield Services and Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation , which specializes in shipping oil and natural gas. Both stocks are listed in Hong Kong, as is the only industrials name on the bear case list, Sinotruk . The truck manufacturer is also state owned. Morgan Stanley expects China Oilfield Services can grow earnings per share by 41% this year and 33% next year, while Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation can see its earnings rise 33% this year, before slowing to 16% growth next year. Sinotruk earnings can grow 18% this year and 17% next year, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. MSCI China constituents are on track for their 13th straight quarter of earnings misses, despite recent improvements in economic data, Morgan Stanley’s Wang said. “We expect further earnings downward revisions amid lingering deflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainties until more policy clarity emerges.” Asia equity fund managers have modestly increased their exposure to China since September’s stimulus announcements, Morningstar strategist Claire Liang said in a phone interview Friday. “But many managers have said whether this rally can continue will depend on whether the policies can see real results,” Liang said in Mandarin, which was translated by CNBC. Beyond stabilizing the economy, she said the managers are looking for whether corporate earnings can recover. China’s October data release on Friday underscored a slow economic recovery despite the latest barrage of stimulus announcements. Industrial production missed forecasts. Fixed asset investment grew more slowly than forecast as the drop in real estate investment steepened, albeit with new home sales narrowing their decline. Only retail sales beat expectations with 4.8% growth . For China’s export-heavy economy, the risk of U.S. tariffs has only risen over the past two weeks as the Republican Party has taken control of the U.S. Congress and President-elect Donald Trump has filled his cabinet with China hawks. Morgan Stanley’s U.S. policy team expects Trump to impose tariffs soon after he takes office, and potentially hit Europe and Mexico along with China imports. While China is better positioned than six years ago to stave off the effects of targeted tariffs, the analysts said global duties on U.S. imports would hit China as much as targeted tariffs did in 2018.
Check out the companies making headlines in premarket trading. Home Depot — The home improvement retailer gained 2.4% after it stuck by its guidance for the full year . CFO Richard McPhail also told CNBC Home Depot doesn’t plan to increase prices due to tariffs. Viking Holdings — Shares of the cruise line fell 5.6% despite first-quarter results coming in better than expected. Viking lost 24 cents per share, excluding items, on revenue of $897.1 million. Analysts polled by FactSet expected a loss of 29 cents per share on revenue of $841.2 million. Hewlett Packard Enterprise — The cloud tech stock gained advanced 3% following an upgrade to outperform from Evercore ISI, with analyst Amit Daryanani labeling its risk-to-reward skew as an attractive entry point for investors. Uber Technologies — Shares gained 1% following news that Uber, as well as Waymo, will partner to foster autonomous ridesharing in Atlanta. Pony AI — The U.S.-listed shares of the autonomous vehicle technology company jumped more than 5%. The Guangzhou, China-based company posted strong quarterly results driven by growing demand for Pony AI’s robotaxi services. The company also said it plans to expand its fleet to 1,000 vehicles by year-end. MongoDB — Shares of the database company ticked down 2% after a downgrade to hold at Loop Capital. Analyst Yun Kim cited “lackluster” market adoption of the company’s Atlas platform as one of the catalysts for the rating change. Amer Sports — Shares of the sports equipment conglomerate surged 10% after first-quarter results surpassed analyst estimates. Amer reported earnings per share of 27 cents, excluding items, on revenue of $1.47 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for 15 cents per share and revenue of $1.39 billion. Bilibili — The Chinese video sharing company added 3% after first-quarter results beat analyst estimates, while daily active users increased to 106.7 million compared to 102.4 million a year ago. D-Wave Quantum — Shares rallied 18% after the company released its latest computing system , known as Advantage2. Other quantum computing stocks, Rigetti and Quantum Computing, popped 4.9% and 10.8%, respectively. — CNBC’s Michelle Fox, Sarah Min and Alex Harring contributed reporting.
Retail buyers came out in full force in the trading session following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, continuing their dip-buying pattern throughout recent volatility. Individual investors bought a net $4.1 billion worth of stocks on Monday from the open through 12:30 p.m. ET, the largest level ever for the time of day and a more than 11 standard deviation move, according to data from JPMorgan’s trading desk. They closed the session with $5.4 billion net purchases. The retail cohort was also responsible for 36% of total trading volume Monday, marking another record, JPMorgan said. .SPX 1D mountain S & P 500 Their aggressive buying came after Moody’s Ratings cut the United States’ sovereign credit rating down one notch to Aa1 from Aaa, the highest possible, citing the growing burden of financing the federal government’s budget deficit and the rising cost of rolling over existing debt amid high interest rates. The S & P 500 slipped about 1% at its session low but ended up squeezing out a 0.09% gain for its sixth consecutive winning session thanks to the record retail buying. The “buy the dip” mentality has been well-anchored on Main Street this year. Retail traders net bought $40 billion in April during the tariff chaos, setting a new record for the largest monthly inflow. Their buying came even as Wall Street pros worried about a recession and a shift away from U.S. assets due to President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies. Still, the Moody’s debt downgrade pressured bond prices and sent yields higher Monday with the 30-year U.S. bond yield jumping above 5% and the 10-year yield topping 4.5%. “US Equities followed a similar path from last week where the daily lows were experienced in the pre-mkt, opening higher, and then seeing another leg higher after the UK/EU close,” JPMorgan said in a note Tuesday. “This may point to retail investors and corporate buybacks as the incremental buyers.”
U.S. births rose by 1% in 2024, with 3.6 million births recorded for the year, according to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 26: A woman pushes a stroller while walking along the La Jolla coastline at sunset on October, 2024 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kevin Carter/Getty Images)Kevin Carter | Getty Images News | Getty Images
BEIJING — One Chinese baby products company announced Tuesday it is officially entering the United States, the world’s largest consumer market — regardless of the trade war.
Shanghai-based Bc Babycare expects its supply chain diversification and the U.S. market potential to more than offset the impact of ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, according to Chi Yang, the company’s vice president of Europe and the Americas.
“Even [if] the political things are not steady … I’m very confident about our product for the moment,” he told CNBC, adding he anticipates “very fast” growth in the U.S. in coming years. That includes his bold predictions that Bc Babycare’s flagship baby carrier can become the best-seller on Amazon.com in half a year, and that U.S. sales can grow by 10-fold in a year.
The $159.99 carrier, eligible for a $40 discount, already has 4.7 stars on Amazon.com across more than 30 reviews. The device claims to reduce pressure on the parent’s body by up to 33%. A far cheaper version of the baby carrier is a top seller among travel products for pregnancy and childbirth on JD.com in China.
Bc Babycare already has the carrier stocked in its U.S. warehouses, and has a network of factories and raw materials suppliers in the Americas, Europe and Asia, Yang said. “The global supply chain is one of the things we keep on building in the past couple years.”
The Trump administration has sought to reduce U.S. reliance on China-made goods and to encourage the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. In a rapid escalation of tensions last month, the U.S. and China had added tariffs of more than 100% on each other’s goods. Last week, the two sides agreed to a 90-day pause for most of the new duties in order to discuss a trade deal.
Baby gear is particularly sensitive to tariffs since the majority of those sold in the U.S. are made in China, said U.S.-based Newell Brands, which owns stroller company Graco, on an April 30 earnings call. That’s according to a FactSet transcript.
The company said it raised baby gear prices by about 20% in the last few weeks, but had not incorporated the additional 125% tariffs announced in mid-April. Newell said on the call it had about three to four months of inventory in the U.S., and had paused additional orders from China.
The company did not respond to a request for comment about whether it had resumed orders from China and whether it planned more price increases.
U.S. office plans
Bc Babycare declined to share how much it planned to invest in the U.S. But Yang said the company plans to open an office in the country and hire about five to 10 locals.
The company initially plans to sell online, spend on marketing and eventually work with major retailers for offline store sales. Its partners for raw materials and research include three U.S. companies: Lyra, Dow and Eastman.
The Chinese company, which entered the baby products segment in 2014, in 2021 claimed a 700 million yuan ($97.09 million) funding round from investors including Sequoia Capital China.
Yang said the company scrutinizes the comments section on Chinese and U.S. e-commerce websites to improve its products. As a result, the U.S. version of the baby carrier is softer and larger than the Chinese version, he said.
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Bc Babycare’s U.S. market ambitions reflect how large U.S. and European multinationals not only face growing competition in China, but also in their home markets.
“After experiencing substantial growth due to the premiumization of consumption in the Chinese market, multinational brands are now entering a challenging second phase where they compete fiercely for market share,” Dave Xie, retail and consumer goods partner in Shanghai at consultancy Oliver Wyman, said in a statement last week.
Oliver Wyman said in a report last month that the Chinese market has become the incubator for premium product innovations that are being exported. The authors noted, for example, that Tineco floor scrubbers have become Amazon best-sellers.