After last month’s excitement over stimulus plans, Chinese stocks now face mounting challenges as earnings have yet to pick up and heightened U.S. trade tensions loom. “Stock picking remains important with [the] headwind of tariffs, a weaker currency and persistent deflation,” Morgan Stanley chief China equity strategist Laura Wang and a team said in a report Thursday. For investment options, she referred to the firm’s survey of China stocks the investment bank’s analysts already cover. The firm screened for stocks that could outperform depending on which of three scenarios unfolded. Only the bear case accounted for significant U.S. tariffs and restrictions. The base and bull cases assumed the status quo in U.S.-China relations. The bear case also expects 1 trillion yuan, or $140 billion, in fiscal stimulus a year and MSCI China earnings per share growth of 3% this year and 5% next year. Morgan Stanley’s basket of bear case stocks only includes overweight-rated names with a dividend yield above 4% this year. They also have free cash flow yield above 4% from 2023 to 2025 and market capitalization above $2 billion, among other factors. The companies must not be on Morgan Stanley’s lists of stocks at a disadvantage from Republican policy and supply chain diversification. The only consumer name that made the list was Tingyi , a Hong Kong-listed company that owns instant noodles brand Master Kong. The company is also PepsiCo ‘s exclusive manufacturer and seller in China. Tingyi’s net profit in beverages rose nearly 26% in the first half of 2024 compared to a year ago, while that of instant noodles rose 5.4%. Morgan Stanley expects Tingyi’s earnings per share to grow 12% this year and 11% in 2025. Other Chinese companies that made Morgan Stanley’s bear case basket included two state-owned energy stocks: drilling company China Oilfield Services and Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation , which specializes in shipping oil and natural gas. Both stocks are listed in Hong Kong, as is the only industrials name on the bear case list, Sinotruk . The truck manufacturer is also state owned. Morgan Stanley expects China Oilfield Services can grow earnings per share by 41% this year and 33% next year, while Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation can see its earnings rise 33% this year, before slowing to 16% growth next year. Sinotruk earnings can grow 18% this year and 17% next year, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. MSCI China constituents are on track for their 13th straight quarter of earnings misses, despite recent improvements in economic data, Morgan Stanley’s Wang said. “We expect further earnings downward revisions amid lingering deflationary pressure and geopolitical uncertainties until more policy clarity emerges.” Asia equity fund managers have modestly increased their exposure to China since September’s stimulus announcements, Morningstar strategist Claire Liang said in a phone interview Friday. “But many managers have said whether this rally can continue will depend on whether the policies can see real results,” Liang said in Mandarin, which was translated by CNBC. Beyond stabilizing the economy, she said the managers are looking for whether corporate earnings can recover. China’s October data release on Friday underscored a slow economic recovery despite the latest barrage of stimulus announcements. Industrial production missed forecasts. Fixed asset investment grew more slowly than forecast as the drop in real estate investment steepened, albeit with new home sales narrowing their decline. Only retail sales beat expectations with 4.8% growth . For China’s export-heavy economy, the risk of U.S. tariffs has only risen over the past two weeks as the Republican Party has taken control of the U.S. Congress and President-elect Donald Trump has filled his cabinet with China hawks. Morgan Stanley’s U.S. policy team expects Trump to impose tariffs soon after he takes office, and potentially hit Europe and Mexico along with China imports. While China is better positioned than six years ago to stave off the effects of targeted tariffs, the analysts said global duties on U.S. imports would hit China as much as targeted tariffs did in 2018.
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell. Netflix — Shares popped more than 15% after the company announced a top- and bottom-line beat on Tuesday night. The streaming service earned $4.27 per share on $10.25 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected earnings of $4.20 per share and revenue of $10.11 billion. Netflix also topped 300 million paid subscribers in the quarter. United Airlines — The airline stock rose 5% after issuing a better-than-expected outlook . United expects to earn 75 cents to $1.25 per share, after adjustments, in the first three months of 2025, which is more than the 54 cents analysts had expected, per LSEG. Trump Media & Technology — The parent company of Truth Social shed 2%, continuing its post-inauguration slide. Shares dropped around 11% on Tuesday. Procter & Gamble — Shares climbed 3% after P & G posted fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ forecasts. The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.88 per share, while analysts had expected $1.86 per share, according to LSEG. Revenue came in at $21.88 billion, beating estimates of $21.54 billion. P & G cited growing demand for household staples. Oracle — Shares surged more than 10% on the back of President Donald Trump’s announcement of project “Stargate” on Tuesday, a joint venture with OpenAI, Oracle and Softbank to invest up to $500 billion in U.S. artificial intelligence infrastructure. Ford — The automaker’s shares slipped nearly 2% after Barclays downgraded shares to equal weight from overweight. The investment bank expects volume headwinds and cost improvement uncertainty will weigh on the stock. Abbott Labs — The health-care stock fell about 2% after fourth-quarter sales of $10.97 billion came in below the $11.03 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount. Sales at its diagnostics division were down slightly year over year. Abbott expects to earn $1.05 to $1.09 per share on an adjusted basis in the first quarter, below the $1.11 per share expected by analysts, according to FactSet. Seagate Technology Holdings — Shares of the data storage company jumped more than 6% the day after it announced strong fiscal second-quarter results. Seagate Technology posted adjusted earnings of $2.03 per share on revenue of $2.33 billion. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected per-share earnings of $1.88 on revenue of $2.32 billion. GE Vernova — The energy company moved about 1% higher after reporting fourth-quarter earnings of $1.73 per share, and reiterating its outlook for 2025. Revenue of $10.56 billion, however, fell short of the $10.79 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG. Travelers — The insurance stock jumped more than 5% after its fourth-quarter results came in well above estimates. Travelers earned $9.15 per share, topping estimates for $6.64 per share, according to LSEG. Revenue of $12.01 billion also beat analysts’ forecasts for $10.84 billion. Textron — Shares shed nearly 4% after the aviation and defense company missed top-line estimates. Textron posted revenue of $3.61 billion in the fourth quarter, while analysts had called for $3.81 billion, per LSEG. Meanwhile, the company posted adjusted earnings of $1.34 per share, which came in a penny above consensus forecasts. Johnson & Johnson — Shares dipped 1.5% after the drugmaker narrowly beat fourth-quarter expectations , driven by strong sales of its cancer treatment. However, the company’s sales forecast for 2025 was slightly lower than analysts were expecting. — CNBC’s Jesse Pound, Michelle Fox and Pia Singh contributed reporting
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday the looming tariffs that President Donald Trump is expected to slap on U.S. trading partners could be viewed positively.
Despite fears that the duties could spark a global trade war and reignite inflation domestically, the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets said they could protect American interests and bring trading partners back to the table for better deals for the country, if used correctly.
“If it’s a little inflationary, but it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it,” Dimon told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “National security trumps a little bit more inflation.”
Since taking office Monday, Trump has been saber-rattling on tariffs, threatening Monday to impose levies on Mexico and Canada, then expanding the scope Tuesday to China and the European Union. The president told reporters that the EU is treating the U.S. “very, very badly” due to its large annual trade surplus. The U.S. last year ran a $214 billion deficit with the EU through November 2024.
Among the considerations are a 10% tariff on China and 25% on Canada and Mexico as the U.S. looks forward to a review on the tri-party agreement Trump negotiated during his first term. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement is up for review in July 2026.
Dimon did not get into the details of Trump’s plans, but said it depends on how the duties are implemented. Trump has indicated the tariffs could take effect Feb. 1.
“I look at tariffs, they’re an economic tool, That’s it,” Dimon said. “They’re an economic weapon, depending on how you use it, why you use it, stuff like that. Tariffs are inflationary and not inflationary.”
Trump leveled broad-based tariffs during his first term, during which inflation ran below 2.5% each year. Despite the looming tariff threat, the U.S. dollar has drifted lower this week.
“Tariffs can change the dollar, but the most important thing is growth,” Dimon said.
Check out the companies making headlines in extended trading. Netflix — Shares soared more than 13% after the streaming giant surpassed 300 million paid memberships . Netflix also beat fourth-quarter expectations on the top and bottom lines, and it raised its revenue expectations for the full year 2025. United Airlines — Shares popped more than 3% after United Airlines’ fourth-quarter results came in better than expected. The airline operator posted adjusted earnings of $3.26 per share on revenues of $14.70 billion. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected per-share earnings of $3.00 on revenues of $14.47 billion. The company also issued a strong forecast for first-quarter earnings. Interactive Brokers Group — Shares jumped about 3% after the brokerage posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Interactive Brokers reported adjusted earnings of $2.03 per share on revenues of $1.42 billion in the quarter. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had expected per-share earnings of $1.86 on revenues of $1.37 billion. Seagate Technology — Shares gained 1% after Seagate Technology surpassed second-quarter expectations, with adjusted earnings of $2.03 per share on revenues of $2.33 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected per-share earnings of $1.88 on revenues of $2.32 billion. Capital One Financial — Shares dipped 0.5% after Capital One missed fourth-quarter revenue expectations, reporting $10.19 billion compared to the LSEG consensus estimate of $10.21 billion. On the other hand, adjusted earnings of $3.09 per share topped the anticipated $2.82 earnings per share.