U.S. President Donald Trump with Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia, at the start of the Group of 20 summit on 28 June 2019.
Bernd von Jutrczenka | picture alliance | Getty Images
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The wealthy Arab Gulf states are in a better position than many other regions of the world to manage the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, economists and regional investors say. But a shaky outlook for the price of oil could put some countries’ budgets and spending projects at risk.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar make up the Gulf Cooperation Council. Together, they comprise around $3.2 trillion in sovereign financial assets, accounting for 33% of the total sovereign assets worldwide, according to GCC Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi.
The GCC also holds approximately 32.6% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves, according to the Statistical Center of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.
That makes it both an asset for the Trump administration as well as vulnerable to its policies, as Trump has long pushed for OPEC, the oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia, to pump more oil to help lower oil prices and offset inflation in the U.S.
A lower oil price, however, can significantly impact the budget deficits and spending plans for those countries, whose economies — despite diversification efforts — still rely heavily on hydrocarbon revenues.
Beneficial relations with Trump
Ben Powell, BlackRock’s chief investment strategist for Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, who is based in Abu Dhabi, said the region’s warm relations with Trump strengthens its hand when it comes to potential tariff negotiations. Some GCC countries have also expanded their role in global diplomacy. One example is Riyadh’s hosting of peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which has made it ever more important to Washington.
“I do think the Middle East, with the deep relationship with the U.S. that they have, should come out okay,” Powell told CNBC’s “Access Middle East” on Monday.
“I think we’re all going to be swept into the maelstrom over the next short period of time. That’s inevitable. But the Middle East, with the balance sheet strength that they have, with the energy support that they still have, providing funding on a near ongoing basis … for me, the Middle East — maybe not today, but over time — should be a relative winner within that mix” when it comes to emerging markets, Powell said.
In considering what the firsthand impact of tariffs might be, Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, noted that the U.S. is not a major export market for the Gulf.
“The GCC should be in a relatively favourable position to withstand headwinds, especially the UAE,” she wrote in a report for the bank on Friday.
While the region faces the blanket 10% universal tariff as well as previously imposed tariffs on all foreign steel and aluminum — products that the UAE and Bahrain both export — “we expect the direct impact to be relatively contained, as the US is not a key destination for Gulf exports, averaging just c.3.7% of the GCC’s total exports in 2024,” she said.
Threat to spending plans
But the oil price outlook is critical for Gulf states’ budgets and future spending plans — particularly for Saudi Arabia, which has embarked on trillions of dollars worth of ambitious mega-projects as part of Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s sweeping initiative to diversify the kingdom’s economy away from oil. The success of the plan, perhaps ironically, relies heavily on oil revenues.
Global benchmark Brent crude was trading at $61.44 per barrel on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. in London, down nearly 17% year-to-date. Additional pressure was put on the price after OPEC+, the oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, made a surprise decision to accelerate planned crude production hikes, further bolstering global supply.
Saudi Arabia needs oil at more than $90 a barrel to balance its budget, the International Monetary Fund estimates. Goldman Sachs this week lowered its oil price forecast for 2026 to $58 for Brent and $55 for U.S. benchmark WTI crude. That’s a significant move lower from its forecast just last Friday of $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI in 2026.
“A weaker global demand and greater supply adds downside risk to our Brent forecast for 2025, though we wait for more market clarity before making any changes,” ADCB’s Malik told CNBC on Monday. OPEC+ is meant to increase oil production levels again in May, and she predicts the group will pause that plan if crude prices stay where they are or fall further.
“Our greatest concern would be a sharp and sustained oil price fall, which would require a reassessment of spending plans – government and off budget – including capex, while also potentially affecting banking sector liquidity and wider confidence,” Malik warned.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk attends the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 13, 2025.
Hamad I Mohammed | Reuters
Elon Musk criticized the Republican spending bill that recently made it through a House vote, saying it counters the work he’s been doing to reduce wasteful government spending.
In an interview to be aired June 1 on “CBS Sunday Morning,” the richest man in the world and the head of the Department of Government Efficiency advisory board said the “big, beautiful bill” will not help the nation’s finances.
“I was, like, disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decrease it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing,” Musk said in a clip the program shared on social media platform X.
DOGE says it has saved $170 billion in taxpayer money since it began in January, targeting areas of government waste and redundancy in sometimes-controversial ways.
For instance, it has gutted the U.S. Agency for International Development and reduced staff elsewhere. DOGE-related moves have been responsible for some 275,000 government layoffs, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a consultancy firm.
The sweeping One Big Beautiful Bill Act by contrast, is projected to raise the federal budget deficit by $3.8 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The deficit is on track in 2025 to run close to $2 trillion, with the national debt now at $36.2 trillion.
“I think a bill can be big or it could be beautiful, but I don’t know if it could be both,” Musk said in the clip.
Trump and congressional Republicans counter that the bill reduces spending in key areas and will generate enough growth to compensate for the tax reductions. The legislation, though, is expected to face strong resistance in the Senate.
For his part, Musk has pulled back his DOGE work, saying he plans to focus on running his companies, which include X, Tesla and SpaceX. Musk had been a frequent presence in the White House since Trump’s election.
In an interview with The Washington Post published Tuesday, Musk said the federal bureaucracy is “much worse than I realized” and that DOGE became “the whipping boy for everything.”
THE 2024 election unfolded like a political thriller, replete with a last-minute candidate change, backroom deals, a cover-up, assassination attempts and ultimately the triumphant return of a convicted felon. But amidst the spectacle, a quieter transformation unfolded. For the first time, millennials and Gen Z, people born between 1981 and 2006, comprised a plurality of the electorate, and their drift towards Donald Trump shaped the outcome.
U.S. President Donald Trump gestures at the annual National Memorial Day Observance in the Memorial Amphitheater, at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., May 26, 2025.
Ken Cedeno | Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he welcomed the European Union, after he agreed to delay a 50% tariff on goods from the bloc until July 9.
“I have just been informed that the E.U. has called to quickly establish meeting dates,” Trump wrote in a post on the Truth Social platform.
“This is a positive event, and I hope that they will, FINALLY, like my same demand to China, open up the European Nations for Trade with the United States of America.”
Trump also said Tuesday that the EU had been “slow walking” in negotiations with the White House over a trade deal.
The sudden prospect of even greater tariffs on one of the U.S.’ biggest trade partners rattled markets when it was threatened by Trump last Friday. In a post last week, Trump said discussions with the EU were “going nowhere.”
However, sentiment turned positive on Tuesday amid hopes of a breakthrough. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a post on X over the weekend that the EU was “ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively,” while European Trade CommissionerMaros Sefcovic said Monday that he had “good calls” with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 index slightly extended gains after Trump’s comments on Tuesday, last trading up 0.55% on the previous session, while U.S. markets opened broadly higher.
The 27-member alliance was hit with a 20% tariff on the EU on April 2 as part of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff strategy, which was then cut for almost all trading partners to 10% for 90 days. Concurrent U.S. duties on autos, steel and aluminum are also hitting the bloc’s exporters.
EU officials have repeatedly stressed that they want to reach a deal with the White House, but that this will not come at any cost. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, earlier this month launched a consultation on tariff countermeasures targeting U.S. imports worth 95 billion euros ($107.4 billion) if a deal is not reached.
CNBC has contacted the European Commission for comment.
On May 8, the U.S. unveiled the outline of a trade deal with the U.K., the first such agreement under the latest Trump administration, although businesses say they are awaiting further details. The deal maintains a 10% baseline tariff on U.K. imports to the U.S., suggesting other countries will face a similar rate at a minimum.
Trump has generally struck a favorable tone toward the U.K. due to its more balanced trade relationship in goods with the U.S. He has accused the EU, however — with which it has a deficit in goods — of treating the U.S. unfairly. EU-U.S. trade is roughly balanced when accounting for both goods and services, according to EU figures.