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Remittance tax plan poses threat to US allies in Central America

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A Republican proposal to tax remittances would deliver an economic blow to some of the U.S.’s poorest neighbors, including a close ally of President Donald Trump. 

The bill, presented to the House of Representatives last week, would levy a 5% tax on remittances for noncitizens and foreign nationals. That’s on top of a roughly 5% to 10% fee already charged on the payments by senders like Western Union Co. and MoneyGram International Inc., services migrants in the U.S. use to send money to family members back home.

The tax would directly hit payments that represent about one-fifth of the gross domestic product of El Salvador, where President Nayib Bukele has formed a strong alliance with the Trump administration by accepting deportees to be imprisoned. Honduras, which hosts a U.S. military base that has facilitated deportations to Venezuela, gets a similar proportion of remittances to the size of its economy, and Guatemala isn’t far behind.

A MoneyGram transfer location in San Salvador, El Salvador.

“It’s not good news for those who receive remittances,” said Carlos Acevedo, former central bank chief for El Salvador. “It might have a negative impact on economic growth.” 

Migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras sent home record amounts of remittances last year, helping drive economic growth across Central America. Remittance flows have surged since Trump took office in January as migrants increase the amount of money they send home in anticipation of being deported. 

The funds are used largely for consumption by poorer families who often have few other sources of income. Mexico and Central America are the world’s most dependent areas for remittances sent from the U.S.  

“The effect isn’t just macroeconomic, it’s at a microeconomic level too, affecting families,” Guatemala Central Bank chief Alvaro Gonzalez Ricci said in a written response to questions. “The importance of remittances to the Guatemalan economy is growing, not just as a proportion of GDP, but also because the flows of millions of dollars boosts family consumption.” 

Gonzalez Ricci said migrants in the U.S. would likely absorb the additional tax, minimizing disruption to the inflows to Guatemala. Some states, especially those with sanctuary cities, will likely oppose the measure, he said. 

However, Manuel Orozco, who researches remittances at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank, estimates that the proposed tax could lead to a 10% decline in volume of remittances sent and number of transactions.

“That’s very conservative — in other words, it’s your best-case scenario,” he said. “If this were to happen, I can see lots of people going crypto and other people relying on relatives that are U.S. citizens to send money for them.”

Mexican Foreign Affairs Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente said the government would mount a legal and political defense to stop the plan, while the country’s Ambassador to the U.S. Esteban Moctezuma Barragan urged House representatives to reject the bill in a letter sent May 13. The proposal would mean double taxation of migrant workers who already pay income taxes in the U.S. Mexicans living and working in the U.S. paid $121 billion in taxes in 2021, the ambassador said. 

“Imposing a tax on these transfers would disproportionately affect those with the least, without accounting for their ability to pay,” Barragan wrote. “The workers referenced in this bill migrated out of necessity and now contribute substantially to the U.S. economy. We respectfully urge you to reconsider.” 

Representatives for the governments of El Salvador and Honduras didn’t reply to requests for comment on the tax proposal.

A trade group of digital payment firms — the Electronic Transactions Association — also urged lawmakers to rethink the proposal. The tax would affect unbanked populations who rely on cross-border transfers as lifelines and could force consumers to send money through unregulated channels, they wrote in a letter on May 8.  

“These services are not luxuries — they are essential tools for paying bills, supporting family members abroad and managing daily finances,” the group wrote. “A tax on remittances effectively penalizes those who can least afford it.” 

It’s not the first time Trump has taken aim at remittances. During his first term, his administration proposed a similar tax, but it was never implemented because of legal and technical difficulties to discriminate between trade-related and worker outflows, Barclays analysts Gabriel Casillas and Nestor Rodriguez wrote in a note on May 14.

Oklahoma is the sole state in the U.S. that has implemented a similar policy: a $5 fee on any wire transfer under $500 and 1% on any amount in excess of $500, passed in 2009. In the first year after it was put in place, the state brought in $5.7 million via the rule; that’s climbed to $13.2 million in the most recent fiscal year.

The renewed push for the tax, if approved, could lead to currency depreciations in countries like Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico. But remittances have been resilient even amid recent threats like the COVID-19 pandemic and “such a tax would be a one-time hit rather than a structural change on remittances,” the Barclays analysts wrote.

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Accounting

Accounting firms seeing increased profits

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Accounting firms are reporting bigger profits and more clients, according to a new report.

The report, released Monday by Xero, found that nearly three-quarters (73%) of firms reported increased profits over the past year and 56% added new clients thanks to operational efficiency and expanded service offerings.

Some 85% of firms now offer client advisory services, a big spike from 41% in 2023, indicating a strategic shift toward delivering forward-looking financial guidance that clients increasingly expect.

AI adoption is also reshaping the profession, with 80% of firms confident it will positively affect their practice. Currently, the most common use cases for AI include: delivering faster and more responsive client services (33%), enhancing accuracy by reducing bookkeeping and accounting errors (33%), and streamlining workflows through the automation of routine tasks (32%).

“The widespread adoption of AI has been a turning point for the accounting profession, giving accountants an opportunity to scale their impact and take on a more strategic advisory role,” said Ben Richmond, managing director, North America, at Xero, in a statement. “The real value lies not just in working more efficiently, but working smarter, freeing up time to elevate the human element of the profession and in turn, strengthen client relationships.”

Some of the main challenges faced by firms include economic uncertainty (38%), mastering AI (36%) and rising client expectations for strategic advice (35%). 

While 85% of firms have embraced cloud platforms, a sizable number still lag behind, missing out on benefits such as easier data access from anywhere (40%) and enhanced security (36%).

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Private equity is investing in accounting: What does that mean for the future of the business?

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Private equity firms have bought five of the top 26 accounting firms in the past three years as they mount a concerted strategy to reshape the industry. 

The trend should not come as a surprise. It’s one we’ve seen play out in several industries from health care to insurance, where a combination of low-risk, recurring revenue, scalability and an aging population of owners create a target-rich environment. For small to midsized accounting firms, the trend is exacerbated by a technological revolution that’s truly transforming the way accounting work is done, and a growing talent crisis that is threatening tried-and-true business models.

How will this type of consolidation affect the accounting business, and what do firms and their clients need to be on the lookout for as the marketplace evolves?

Assessing the opportunity… and the risk

First and foremost, accounting firm owners need to be aware of just how desirable they are right now. While there has been some buzz in the industry about the growing presence of private equity firms, most of the activity to date has focused on larger, privately held firms. In fact, when we recently asked tax professionals about their exposure to private equity funding in our 2025 State of Tax Professionals Report, we found that just 5% of firms have actually inked a deal and only 11% said they are planning to look, or are currently looking, for a deal with a private equity firm. Another 8% said they are open to discussion. On the one hand, that’s almost a quarter of firms feeling open to private equity investments in some way. But the lion’s share of respondents —  87% — said they were not interested.

Recent private equity deal volume suggests that the holdouts might change their minds when they have a real offer on the table. According to S&P Global, private equity and venture capital-backed deal value in the accounting, auditing and taxation services sector reached more than $6.3 billion in 2024, the highest level since 2015, and the trend shows no signs of slowing. Firm owners would be wise to start watching this trend to see how it might affect their businesses — whether they are interested in selling or not.

Focus on tech and efficiencies of scale

The reason this trend is so important to everyone in the industry right now is that the private equity firms entering this space are not trying to become accountants. They are looking for profitable exits. And they will do that by seizing on a critical inflection point in the industry that’s making it possible to scale accounting firms more rapidly than ever before by leveraging technology to deliver a much wider range of services at a much lower cost. So, whether your firm is interested in partnering with private equity or dead set on going it alone, the hyperscaling that’s happening throughout the industry will affect you one way or another.

Private equity thrives in fragmented businesses where the ability to roll up companies with complementary skill sets and specialized services creates an outsized growth opportunity. Andrew Dodson, managing partner at Parthenon Capital, recently commented after his firm took a stake in the tax and advisory firm Cherry Bekaert, “We think that for firms to thrive, they need to make investments in people and technology, and, obviously, regulatory adherence, to really differentiate themselves in the market. And that’s going to require scale and capital to do it. That’s what gets us excited.”

Over time, this could reshape the industry’s market dynamics by creating the accounting firm equivalent of the Traveling Wilburys — supergroups capable of delivering a wide range of specialized services that smaller, more narrowly focused firms could never previously deliver. It could also put downward pressure on pricing as these larger, platform-style firms start finding economies of scale to deliver services more cost-effectively.

The technology factor

The great equalizer in all of this is technology. Consistently, when I speak to tax professionals actively working in the market today, their top priorities are increased efficiency, growth and talent. Firms recognize they need to streamline workflows and processes through more effective use of technology, and they are investing heavily in AI, automation and data analytics capabilities to do that. Private equity firms, of course, are also investing in tech as they assemble their tax and accounting dream teams, in many cases raising the bar for the industry.

The question is: Can independent firms leverage technology fast enough to keep up with their deep-pocketed competition?

Many firms believe they can, with some even going so far as to publicly declare their independence.  Regardless of the path small to midsized firms take to get there, technology-enabled growth is going to play a key role in the future of the industry. Market dynamics that have been unfolding for the last decade have been accelerated with the introduction of serious investors, and everyone in the industry — large and small — is going to need to up their games to stay competitive.

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Trump tax bill would help the richest, hurt the poorest, CBO says

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The House-passed version of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending bill would deliver a financial blow to the poorest Americans but be a boon for higher-income households, according to a new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.

The bottom 10% of households would lose an average of about $1,600 in resources per year, amounting to a 3.9% cut in their income, according to the analysis released Thursday. Those decreases are largely attributable to cuts in the Medicaid health insurance program and food aid through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

Households in the highest 10% of incomes would see an average $12,000 boost in resources, amounting to a 2.3% increase in their incomes. Those increases are mainly attributable to reductions in taxes owed, according to the report from the nonpartisan CBO.

Households in the middle of the income distribution would see an increase in resources of $500 to $1,000, or between 0.5% and 0.8% of their income. 

The projections are based on the version of the tax legislation that House Republicans passed last month, which includes much of Trump’s economic agenda. The bill would extend tax cuts passed under Trump in 2017 otherwise due to expire at the end of the year and create several new tax breaks. It also imposes new changes to the Medicaid and SNAP programs in an effort to cut spending.

Overall, the legislation would add $2.4 trillion to US deficits over the next 10 years, not accounting for dynamic effects, the CBO previously forecast.

The Senate is considering changes to the legislation including efforts by some Republican senators to scale back cuts to Medicaid.

The projected loss of safety-net resources for low-income families come against the backdrop of higher tariffs, which economists have warned would also disproportionately impact lower-income families. While recent inflation data has shown limited impact from the import duties so far, low-income families tend to spend a larger portion of their income on necessities, such as food, so price increases hit them harder.

The House-passed bill requires that able-bodied individuals without dependents document at least 80 hours of “community engagement” a month, including working a job or participating in an educational program to qualify for Medicaid. It also includes increased costs for health care for enrollees, among other provisions.

More older adults also would have to prove they are working to continue to receive SNAP benefits, also known as food stamps. The legislation helps pay for tax cuts by raising the age for which able bodied adults must work to receive benefits to 64, up from 54. Under the current law, some parents with dependent children under age 18 are exempt from work requirements, but the bill lowers the age for the exemption for dependent children to 7 years old. 

The legislation also shifts a portion of the cost for federal food aid onto state governments.

CBO previously estimated that the expanded work requirements on SNAP would reduce participation in the program by roughly 3.2 million people, and more could lose or face a reduction in benefits due to other changes to the program. A separate analysis from the organization found that 7.8 million people would lose health insurance because of the changes to Medicaid.

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