Economics
Saudi Arabia slashes growth forecasts, sees wider budget deficits
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Xavierarnau | E+ | Getty Images
Saudi Arabia cut its growth forecasts and raised its budget deficit estimates for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026, looking ahead to a period of higher spending and lower projected oil revenues.
Real gross domestic product is now expected to grow 0.8% this year, a dramatic drop from a previous estimate of 4.4%, according to the latest pre-budget report published by the Ministry of Finance on Monday. The GDP growth projection for 2025 has also been cut from a previous estimate of 5.7% to 4.6%; while the outlook for 2026 has been trimmed from 5.1% to 3.5%.
“The FY2025 budget highlights the Kingdom’s commitment to accelerate the regulatory and structural reforms, as well as the development of policies,” the pre-budget report read. “It also focuses on transformative spending to promote sustainable economic growth, improve social development, and enhance quality of life.”
The latest report further emphasized the Saudi government’s plans to deploy sovereign and development funds “for capital investment while empowering both the private and non-profit sectors to foster growth and prosperity.”
Saudi authorities also expect that the budget will remain in deficit for the next several years, as the kingdom prioritizes spending to achieve the targets of its Vision 2030 plan to modernize and diversify the heavily oil-dependent Saudi economy.
The Finance Ministry projected a wider budget shortfall of about 2.9% of GDP for 2024, compared with a previous projection of 1.9% for the year. It predicted deficits of 2.3% and 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, also wider than previous estimates.
Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven oil price — what it needs a barrel of crude to cost in order to balance its government budget — has increased in recent months and years and may well rise higher along with spending increases.
The IMF’s latest forecast released in April put that fiscal breakeven figure at $96.20 for 2024, marking a roughly 19% increase on the year before. The figure is also about 36% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which was trading at around $70.70 as of Tuesday afternoon.
Oil prices are expected to remain subdued at least in the medium-term amid slowing demand and increased supply globally.
Saudi Arabia is hosting major international events that will require steep spending — like the World Cup 2034 and Expo 2030 — as well as building out multi-trillion dollar megaprojects like Neom, which is backed by the kingdom’s mammoth sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund.
“Saudi Arabia’s GDP dances to the rhythm of oil, and with recent data from the Ministry of Finance, it’s clear that as oil gushes, so does the economy,” Tarik Solomon, chairman emeritus at the American Chamber of Commerce in Saudi Arabia, told CNBC. “But when the wells slow, so does the growth.”
Saudi Arabia’s public debt has grown from around 3% of its GDP in the 2010s to roughly 28% today, according to the International Monetary Fund — a huge jump, but still low by international standards. Public debt in EU countries, for instance, averages 82%. In the U.S. in 2023, that figure was 123%.
Its relatively low debt level and high credit rating makes it easier for Saudi Arabia to take on more debt as it needs to. The kingdom has also rolled out a series of reforms to boost and de-risk foreign investment and diversify revenue streams. While the country’s economy has contracted for the last consecutive four quarters, non-oil economic activity grew 4.4% in the second quarter year-on-year, up 3.4% in the previous quarter.
Production at the VW plant in Emden.
Sina Schuldt | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.
As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.
Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.
Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.
“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.
The CDU/CSU economic agenda
The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.
It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.
“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.
“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.
Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”
But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.
Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.
Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.
Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.
Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.
“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.
“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.
Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.
“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.
Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.
Coalition talks ahead
Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.
The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.
“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.
The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.
“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.
Critical Role of Bookkeeping in a Small Business Success
Lutnick’s tax comments give cruise operators case of deja vu
Don’t wait to file your taxes this season, experts say. Here’s why
New 2023 K-1 instructions stir the CAMT pot for partnerships and corporations
The Essential Practice of Bank and Credit Card Statement Reconciliation
Are American progressives making themselves sad?
-
Economics1 week agoDonald Trump wants states and cities to do as they are told
-
Economics1 week agoDefense stocks drop after Trump says Pentagon spending could be halved
-
Economics1 week agoCut debt or face economic heart attack
-
Technology7 days agoReddit CEO Steve Huffman Unveils Monetization Strategy for 2025
-
Economics1 week agoPPI January 2025:
-
Leaders7 days agoAdebayo Ogunlesi – From Nigerian Roots to Global Financial Leadership
-
Economics1 week agoMexico, Canada tariffs could add $6,000 to the cost of a car, by one estimate
-
Blog Post7 days agoPower of Ratio Analysis in Business Performance Assessment