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Small business optimism hits 11-year low as inflation fears won’t go away

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A man checks the label of a vitamins jar at a Costco Wholesale store on April 3, 2024 in Colchester, Vermont. 

Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

Small business confidence hit its lowest level in more than 11 years for March as proprietors worried that inflation is still very much a problem.

At a time when other data points show inflation receding, the National Federation of Independent Business reported Tuesday that its survey showed a reading of 88.5, down nearly a point from February to the lowest since December 2012.

A quarter of all respondents reported that rising costs were the biggest problem.

“Small business optimism has reached the lowest level since 2012 as owners continue to manage numerous economic headwinds,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said. “Inflation has once again been reported as the top business problem on Main Street and the labor market has only eased slightly.”

A quarter of all respondents cited inflation, and in particular higher input and labor costs, as their most pressing issue. A net 28% reported raising average selling prices for the month, according to seasonally adjusted data.

As part of those escalating costs, a net 38% said they raised compensation, up 3 percentage points from the February reading that was the lowest since May 2021. The Labor Department on Friday reported that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in March and 4.1% from a year ago.

Investors should seek opportunities both within yields and equities, says Citi's Kristen Bitterly

The survey comes with other indicators showing that inflation, while not eradicated, is at least receding.

A Commerce Department measure of personal consumption expenditures prices put the annual inflation rate at 2.5% in February. The measure, which the Federal Reserve uses as its main inflation gauge, showed a 2.8% level when excluding food and energy, which policymakers prefer as a better sign of longer-run trends.

The consumer price index, a more widely watched figure by the public, will be released Wednesday and is expected to show a 3.4% headline rate and 3.7% on core. Fed policymakers target 2% annual inflation.

Inflation expectations have been fairly well-anchored in recent months. A New York Fed survey on Monday showed respondents for March expected a 3% rate over the next year, unchanged from February. The three-year outlook rose slightly but the five-year expectation decreased.

However, the survey did show a big jump in the expectations for rent increases — by 8.7% over the next year, a 2.6 percentage point surge from February. Declining shelter inflation is at the core of the Fed’s thesis that inflation will continue to ebb toward the central bank’s 2% target, allowing for interest rate cuts later in the year.

Fed survey respondents also said they expect prices to rise substantially for most other major components. They see gas prices up 4.5% in the next year and food up 5.1%, both 0.2 percentage point higher than the February survey.

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Trump greenlights Nippon merger with US Steel

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A tugboat pushes a barge near the U.S. Steel Corp. Clairton Coke Works facility in Clairton, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 9, 2024.

Justin Merriman | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President Donald Trump said Friday that U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel will form a “partnership,” after the Japanese steelmaker’s bid to acquire its U.S. rival had been blocked on national security grounds.

“This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.

U.S. Steel’s headquarters will remain in Pittsburgh and the bulk of the investment will take place over the next 14 months, the president said. U.S. Steel shares jumped more than 24%.

President Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel from purchasing U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion in January, citing national security concerns. Biden said at the time that the acquisition would create a risk to supply chains that are critical for the U.S.

Trump, however, ordered a new review of the proposed acquisition in April, directing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to determine “whether further action in this matter may be appropriate.”

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A court resurrects the United States Institute of Peace

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The night the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) was taken over, March 17th, staffers from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) walked round its headquarters smoking cigars and drinking beers while they dismantled the signage and disabled the computer systems. The takeover of the USIP building in Washington, DC, earlier that afternoon was one of the more notable moments of President Donald Trump’s revolution in the capital, because the think-tank is not actually part of the executive branch. The Institute’s board and president, George Moose, a veteran diplomat, were summarily fired. He and other senior staff were ultimately forced out of the building at the behest of three different police agencies. Then a DOGE staffer handed over the keys to the building to the federal government.

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How much worse could America’s measles outbreak get?

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AMERICA’S MEASLES outbreak is alarming for several reasons. What began as a handful of cases in Texas in January has now surpassed 800 across several states, with many more cases probably going unreported. It is the worst outbreak in 30 years and has already killed three people. Other smaller outbreaks bring the total number of cases recorded in 2025 so far to over 1,000. But above all, public-health experts worry that the situation now is a sign of worse to come. Falling vaccination rates and cuts to public-health services could make such outbreaks more frequent and impossible to curb, eventually making measles endemic in the country again.

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