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Small business optimism hits 11-year low as inflation fears won’t go away

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A man checks the label of a vitamins jar at a Costco Wholesale store on April 3, 2024 in Colchester, Vermont. 

Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images

Small business confidence hit its lowest level in more than 11 years for March as proprietors worried that inflation is still very much a problem.

At a time when other data points show inflation receding, the National Federation of Independent Business reported Tuesday that its survey showed a reading of 88.5, down nearly a point from February to the lowest since December 2012.

A quarter of all respondents reported that rising costs were the biggest problem.

“Small business optimism has reached the lowest level since 2012 as owners continue to manage numerous economic headwinds,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said. “Inflation has once again been reported as the top business problem on Main Street and the labor market has only eased slightly.”

A quarter of all respondents cited inflation, and in particular higher input and labor costs, as their most pressing issue. A net 28% reported raising average selling prices for the month, according to seasonally adjusted data.

As part of those escalating costs, a net 38% said they raised compensation, up 3 percentage points from the February reading that was the lowest since May 2021. The Labor Department on Friday reported that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in March and 4.1% from a year ago.

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The survey comes with other indicators showing that inflation, while not eradicated, is at least receding.

A Commerce Department measure of personal consumption expenditures prices put the annual inflation rate at 2.5% in February. The measure, which the Federal Reserve uses as its main inflation gauge, showed a 2.8% level when excluding food and energy, which policymakers prefer as a better sign of longer-run trends.

The consumer price index, a more widely watched figure by the public, will be released Wednesday and is expected to show a 3.4% headline rate and 3.7% on core. Fed policymakers target 2% annual inflation.

Inflation expectations have been fairly well-anchored in recent months. A New York Fed survey on Monday showed respondents for March expected a 3% rate over the next year, unchanged from February. The three-year outlook rose slightly but the five-year expectation decreased.

However, the survey did show a big jump in the expectations for rent increases — by 8.7% over the next year, a 2.6 percentage point surge from February. Declining shelter inflation is at the core of the Fed’s thesis that inflation will continue to ebb toward the central bank’s 2% target, allowing for interest rate cuts later in the year.

Fed survey respondents also said they expect prices to rise substantially for most other major components. They see gas prices up 4.5% in the next year and food up 5.1%, both 0.2 percentage point higher than the February survey.

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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Economics

What would Robert Kennedy junior mean for American health?

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AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).

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UK economy ekes out 0.1% growth, below expectations

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Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.

It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.

The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.

The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.

“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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