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Spring homebuying season brings slightly more optimism as listings continue to rise

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The Home Purchase Sentiment Index is up by 2.1% in February.  (iStock)

The spring buying season is heating up as more houses are on the market and homebuyers are eager to buy now that the winter frost has settled.

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index, which measures home-selling conditions, increased by 2.1 points in February. This is the third consecutive month the index increased.

This increase is largely due to the optimism slowly seeping through the real estate market as selling conditions improve slightly.

“The HPSI increased for the third straight month, continuing its slow but steady rise from the low-level plateau observed through much of 2023; and consumer sentiment toward housing now rests firmly above where it was this time last year,” Fannie Mae Senior Vice President Doug Duncan said.

While the percentage of prospective homebuyers that think it’s a good time to buy has increased to 19%, many buyers are still pessimistic.

This pessimism comes mainly from the state of home prices. About 42% of respondents surveyed in Fannie Mae’s report expect home prices to increase within the next 12 months, up from 37% a year ago.

Potential buyers also aren’t as positive about where mortgage rates stand. The number of survey respondents who think rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 36% to 35%. 

“A decline in mortgage rates — and the resulting uptick in sentiment — would obviously bode well for the upcoming spring homebuying season,” Duncan said.

“Although affordability will likely remain a significant challenge for buyers, at least until there’s a meaningful addition to net supply.”

Interest rates remain lower than they did at the height of the pandemic, so if you’re ready to take advantage of these lower rates, now may be the time to consider a mortgage. A site like Credible can let you view multiple mortgage lenders and provide you with personalized rates within just minutes, all without impacting your credit.

HOMEBUYERS CONSIDERING PURCHASING TINY HOMES AND FIXER-UPPERS TO COMBAT HIGH HOME PRICES

New construction homes remain popular

New construction became a haven for buyers during the pandemic when fewer listings of existing homes were on the market. New construction remains popular for many buyers. More than half of prospective buyers last year preferred to search for new-build homes, a Zillow study found.

Of the buyers who wanted new construction homes, 42% said they were only interested in new construction. This is an increase of six percentage points from 2022 and up 10 percentage points from 2021.

Home listings in general are up around the country. Listings for all houses increased 3.8% month over month in February, according to Redfin. This is the largest increase in six months.

“The housing market is nothing like it was two years ago during the pandemic homebuying frenzy, but it’s better than it was last year. It’s coming back,” David Palmer, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Seattle, said.

If you think you’re ready to shop around for a home loan, consider using Credible to help you easily compare interest rates from multiple lenders in minutes.

GEN Z MOVERS ARE HEADING TO WARMER CLIMATES, WILLING TO PAY HIGHER HOUSING COSTS: ZILLOW

Mortgage rates are no longer expected to dip below 6% this year

Last month, mortgage rates were predicted to end the year around 5.9%, but 30-year fixed mortgage loans are now expected to hover around 6.4% at year’s end, Fannie Mae estimated in its most recent rates forecast.

The Federal Reserve isn’t cutting rates as aggressively due to better job numbers and higher inflation than expected.

“Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast, as markets continue to evolve their expectations of future monetary policy,” Doug Duncan said.

“Still, while we don’t expect a dramatic surge in the supply of homes for sale, we do anticipate an increase in the level of market transactions relative to 2023 — even if mortgage rates remain elevated.”

To see what mortgage rates you qualify for based on your current credit score and salary, consider visiting Credible, where you can compare multiple mortgage lenders at once.

HOMEBUYERS GAINED THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS AS MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES FALL: REDFIN

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Walmart sell-off bizarre, buy stock despite tariff risks: Bill Simon

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Walmart's stock drop after earnings is bizarre, says former CEO Bill Simon

Walmart stock may be a steal.

Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.

“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.

But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.

“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”

Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.

“The big guys, Walmart, Costco, Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”

Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.

Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.

“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”

It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.

But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.

“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.

Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.

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China carries big risks for investors, money manager suggests

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Is China abandoning capitalism?

Investors may want to reduce their exposure to the world’s largest emerging market.

Perth Tolle, who’s the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, warns China’s capitalism model is unsustainable.

“I think the thinking used to be that their capitalism would lead to democracy,” she told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Economic freedom is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for personal freedom.”

She runs the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF — which is up more than 43% since its first day of trading on May 23, 2019. So far this year, Tolle’s ETF is up 9%, while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks the country’s biggest stocks, is up 19%.

The fund has never invested in China, according to Tolle.

Tolle spent part of her childhood in Beijing. When she started at Fidelity Investments as a private wealth advisor in 2004, Tolle noted all of her clients wanted exposure to China’s market.

“I didn’t want to personally be investing in China at that point, but everyone else did,” she said. “Then, I had clients from Russia who said, ‘I don’t want to invest in Russia because it’s like funding terrorism.’ And, look how prescient that is today. So, my own experience and those of some of my clients led me to this idea in the end.”

She prefers emerging economies that prioritize freedom.

“Without that, the economy is going to be constrained,” she added.

ETF investor Tom Lydon, who is the former VettaFi head, also sees China as a risky investment.

 “If you look at emerging markets… by not being in China from a performance standpoint, it’s provided less volatility and better performance,” Lydon said.

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Read Warren Buffett’s latest annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised its stakes in Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co., Itochu, Marubeni and Sumitomo — all to 7.4%.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Warren Buffett released Saturday his annual letter to shareholders.

In it, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway discussed how he still preferred stocks over cash, despite the conglomerate’s massive cash hoard. He also lauded successor Greg Able for his ability to pick opportunities — and compared him to the late Charlie Munger.

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