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Spring homebuying season brings slightly more optimism as listings continue to rise

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The Home Purchase Sentiment Index is up by 2.1% in February.  (iStock)

The spring buying season is heating up as more houses are on the market and homebuyers are eager to buy now that the winter frost has settled.

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index, which measures home-selling conditions, increased by 2.1 points in February. This is the third consecutive month the index increased.

This increase is largely due to the optimism slowly seeping through the real estate market as selling conditions improve slightly.

“The HPSI increased for the third straight month, continuing its slow but steady rise from the low-level plateau observed through much of 2023; and consumer sentiment toward housing now rests firmly above where it was this time last year,” Fannie Mae Senior Vice President Doug Duncan said.

While the percentage of prospective homebuyers that think it’s a good time to buy has increased to 19%, many buyers are still pessimistic.

This pessimism comes mainly from the state of home prices. About 42% of respondents surveyed in Fannie Mae’s report expect home prices to increase within the next 12 months, up from 37% a year ago.

Potential buyers also aren’t as positive about where mortgage rates stand. The number of survey respondents who think rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 36% to 35%. 

“A decline in mortgage rates — and the resulting uptick in sentiment — would obviously bode well for the upcoming spring homebuying season,” Duncan said.

“Although affordability will likely remain a significant challenge for buyers, at least until there’s a meaningful addition to net supply.”

Interest rates remain lower than they did at the height of the pandemic, so if you’re ready to take advantage of these lower rates, now may be the time to consider a mortgage. A site like Credible can let you view multiple mortgage lenders and provide you with personalized rates within just minutes, all without impacting your credit.

HOMEBUYERS CONSIDERING PURCHASING TINY HOMES AND FIXER-UPPERS TO COMBAT HIGH HOME PRICES

New construction homes remain popular

New construction became a haven for buyers during the pandemic when fewer listings of existing homes were on the market. New construction remains popular for many buyers. More than half of prospective buyers last year preferred to search for new-build homes, a Zillow study found.

Of the buyers who wanted new construction homes, 42% said they were only interested in new construction. This is an increase of six percentage points from 2022 and up 10 percentage points from 2021.

Home listings in general are up around the country. Listings for all houses increased 3.8% month over month in February, according to Redfin. This is the largest increase in six months.

“The housing market is nothing like it was two years ago during the pandemic homebuying frenzy, but it’s better than it was last year. It’s coming back,” David Palmer, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Seattle, said.

If you think you’re ready to shop around for a home loan, consider using Credible to help you easily compare interest rates from multiple lenders in minutes.

GEN Z MOVERS ARE HEADING TO WARMER CLIMATES, WILLING TO PAY HIGHER HOUSING COSTS: ZILLOW

Mortgage rates are no longer expected to dip below 6% this year

Last month, mortgage rates were predicted to end the year around 5.9%, but 30-year fixed mortgage loans are now expected to hover around 6.4% at year’s end, Fannie Mae estimated in its most recent rates forecast.

The Federal Reserve isn’t cutting rates as aggressively due to better job numbers and higher inflation than expected.

“Hotter-than-expected inflation data and strong payroll numbers are likely to apply more upward pressure to mortgage rates this year than we’d previously forecast, as markets continue to evolve their expectations of future monetary policy,” Doug Duncan said.

“Still, while we don’t expect a dramatic surge in the supply of homes for sale, we do anticipate an increase in the level of market transactions relative to 2023 — even if mortgage rates remain elevated.”

To see what mortgage rates you qualify for based on your current credit score and salary, consider visiting Credible, where you can compare multiple mortgage lenders at once.

HOMEBUYERS GAINED THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS AS MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES FALL: REDFIN

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

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Investor Ric Edelman reacts to crypto ETF boom

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Ric Edelman cuts through crypto confusion specifically for the long-term investor

Bitcoin’s milestone week comes as new crypto exchange-traded funds are hitting the market.

Investor and best-selling personal finance author Ric Edelman thinks the rollout gives investors more access to upside.

He finds buffer ETFs and yield ETFs particularly exciting.

“You can now invest in bitcoin ETFs that protect you against the downside volatility while preserving your ability to enjoy the upside profits,” Edelman told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.” You can generate massive amounts of yield, much more than you can in the stock market.”

Edelman is the founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, which educates financial advisors on cryptocurrencies. He is also in Barron’s Financial Advisor Hall of Fame.

“Crypto is meant to be a long-term hold, just like the stock market,” said Edelman. “It’s meant to diversify the portfolio.”

His thoughts came as a bitcoin rally got underway. The cryptocurrency crossed $100,000 on Thursday for the first time since February. As of Friday’s close on Wall Street, bitcoin gained 6% this week. It is now up almost 10% so far this month.

However, Edelman sees problems when it comes to leverage and inverse bitcoin ETFs. He warned that not all crypto ETFs are appropriate for retail investors, suggesting most don’t understand how they work.

‘Same thing as buying a lottery ticket’

“These leveraged ETFs often have an assumption you’re going to hold the fund for a single day, a daily reset,” he said. “That’s literally the same thing as buying a lottery ticket. This isn’t investing.”

During the same interview, “ETF Edge” host Bob Pisani referenced 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) as an example of a leveraged bitcoin product that includes daily fees and resets.

The fund is beating bitcoin this week, jumping more than 12%. So far this month, the ETF is up 19%. But the BITX is underperforming bitcoin this year. It is up about 1.5%, while bitcoin is up roughly 10%.

Volatility Shares is the ETF provider behind BITX.

The company writes on its website: “The Fund is not suitable for all investors … An investor in the Fund could potentially lose the full value of their investment within a single day.”

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America failing its young investors, warns financial guru Ric Edelman

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Legendary investor Ric Edelman on why financial literacy hasn't improved in a generation… and what can be done.

One of the most recognized names in personal finance is urging Americans to increase their financial literacy, and urging the country to do a better job of providing the education. 

“We spend a lot of time trying to improve financial literacy. We stink at it,” said Ric Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Engines, on this week’s CNBC “ETF Edge.”

Edelman believes the problem is rooted in the fact the U.S. has never had a great tradition of encouraging smart personal finance, and he says it has never been more important to fix, given how long people are now living. That increases the risks related to running out of money later in life and creates serious questions about standard investing models for long-term financial security, such as the 60-40 stock and bond portfolio.

“We are the first generation, as baby boomers, that will live long lives as part of the norm,” Edelman said. “Everyone before us, our parents and grandparents mostly died in their 50s and 60s. You didn’t have to plan for the future, because you weren’t going to have one,” he added.

One of his biggest concerns with the current generation of young investors is that they seem to believe in get-rich-quick schemes. Many of the new investing websites have been too encouraging of risky strategies that lure young investors in, he says, promoting financial gambling rather than investing. Options and zero-day options have become a significant part of the daily trading landscape in the last several years. According to data from the New York Stock Exchange, the percent of retail traders participating in the options market approached the 50% mark in 2022. In 2024, options volume hit an all-time record.

Edelman says younger generations should be wary of a corporate America that makes consumer finance more complicated than it should be, which includes the manufacturing of overly sophisticated and expensive financial products. “They want to make it complex, to make you a hostage rather than a customer,” he said. 

He also cautions young investors to make sure they are getting information about personal finance from credible sources. “When so many are getting their financial education from TikTok, that’s a little scary,” he said.

Edelman believes the cards are stacked against young investors because of the lack of high schools mandating a course in personal finance. “The only way we discover the issues of money is through the school of hard knocks as adults, and we’re over our heads when it comes to buying a car, getting a mortgage, insurance and saving for college” he said. 

That situation is improving for the next generations of adults. Utah was the first state to require a personal finance course for high school graduation in 2004, and the list grew to include 11 states by 2021. As of this year, 27 states now require high school students to take a semester-long personal finance course for graduation, according to Next Gen Personal Finance. 

Another big challenge for young investors is they often don’t have a lot of money to invest, with many recent college graduates struggling to pay bills and left with little to put towards other financial goals. But there is at least one reason to be hopeful about younger Americans, Edelman says: they are highly motivated to reach financial success.

“Today’s youth looks at their parents and sees how poorly they were prepared for retirement. They don’t want that to be their future” he said.

ETF Edge: New crypto ETFs, 60/40 investing and bond ETFs

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Powell may have a hard time avoiding Trump’s ‘Too Late’ label even as Fed chief does the right thing

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 7, 2025.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

History suggests that President Donald Trump’s new “Too Late” nickname for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has a strong chance of coming true, though he’d hardly be alone if it does.

After all, central bank leaders have a long history of being too reluctant to raise or lower interest rates.

Whether it was Arthur Burns keeping rates too low in the face of the stagflation threat during the 1970s, Alan Greenspan not responding quickly enough to the dotcom bubble in the ’90s, or Ben Bernanke’s dismissal of the subprime housing prices as “contained” and not lowering rates prior to the 2008 financial crisis, Fed leaders have long been criticized as slow to act absent compelling data showing them something needs to be done.

So some economists think Powell, faced with a unique set of challenges to the Fed’s twin goals of full employment and low inflation, has a strong chance of wearing the “Too Late” label.

In fact, many of them think nothing is exactly what Powell should do now.

“Historically, go back and look at any Federal Reserve, and I’m going back into the ’70s, the Fed is always late both ways,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “They tend to wait. They want to wait to make sure that they won’t make a mistake, and by the time they do that, usually it is too late. The economy is almost always in recession.”

The Fed will have to get back in the business of forecasting, says New Century's Claudia Sahm

However, he said that given the volatile policy mix, with Trump’s tariffs threatening both growth and inflation, Powell has little choice but to sit tight absent more clarity.

Powell is in a no-win situation, with threats to both sides of the Fed mandate, “and that’s why he’s doing the exact right thing at this moment, which is nothing, because one way or another it’s going to be a mistake,” North said.

Trump wants a cut

Though Trump said the economy probably will be fine no matter what the Fed does, he has been badgering the central bank lately to cut rates, insisting that inflation has been slayed.

In a Truth Social post after the Fed decision this week to keep rates unchanged, Trump declared that “Too Late’ Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue.” The president declared there is “virtually NO INFLATION,” something that was true for March at least when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in unchanged for the month.

However, the president’s tariffs have yet to be felt in the real economy, as they are barely a month old.

Recent economic data do not indicate price spikes nor a perceptible slowdown in economic activity. However, surveys are showing heightened worries in both the manufacturing and service sectors, while consumer sentiment has soured, and nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies mentioned tariff concerns on their quarterly earnings calls.

At this week’s post-meeting news conference, though, Powell repeatedly voiced confidence in what he called a “solid” economy and a labor market “consistent with maximum employment.”

No ‘pre-emptive’ cuts

The 72-year-old Fed chair also dismissed any idea of a pre-emptive rate cut, despite what sentiment survey data is indicating about current conditions.

“Powell offered two reasons for not being in a hurry. The first – ‘no real cost to waiting’ – is one he may live to regret,” Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a client note. “The second – ‘we are not sure what the right thing will be’ – makes more sense.”

Powell has his own particular history of being late, with the Fed reluctant to hike when inflation began spiking in 2021. He and his colleagues labeled that episode “transitory,” a call that came back to haunt them when they had to institute a series of historically aggressive hikes that still have not brought inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.

“If they’re waiting for the labor market to confirm whether they should cut rates, by definition they’re too late,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities and a senior economic advisor to Trump in his first term. “I don’t think the Fed is being forward-looking enough.”

Indeed, if the Fed is using the labor market as a guide, it almost certainly will be behind the curve. An old adage on Wall Street says, “the labor market is the last to know” when a recession is coming, and history has been fairly consistent that job losses generally don’t start until after a downturn has begun.

LaVorgna thinks the Fed is hamstrung by its own history and will miss this call as well, as policymakers unsuccessfully try to game out the impact of tariffs.

“We’re not going to know if it’s too late until it’s too late,” he said. “Economic history combined with current market pricing suggests there’s a real risk the Fed will be too late.”

Fed Chair Powell: I’ve never asked for a meeting with any president and I never will

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