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Stock pickers are on record run. Don’t be fooled, says index fund guru

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Active stock pickers have a 'poker with all the cards face up' problem, says Charley Ellis

Stock picking looks easy, but the numbers prove it isn’t. S&P Global reports that after one year, 73% of active managers underperform their benchmarks. After five years, 95.5% of active managers miss the mark. After 15 years, nobody outperforms.

That is not going to change, according to Charles Ellis, a veteran investment industry figure and believer in the power of indexing. In fact, the growth of passive funds has led some in the industry to worry it will kill the active management business, a charge Ellis says doesn’t hold true, but it will remain true that active managers struggle to find an edge in the market. 

“The number of people that get hired into active management keeps rising and we’re way overloaded with talent in that area and we’ll stay there as long as it is great fun, with high pay and you can also make a small fortune,” Ellis said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.

ETF industry expert Dave Nadig agreed that active managers aren’t going away. “We just had the best year for active management inflows that we’d ever had,” he said on “ETF Edge.” 

Active ETFs continued their hot streak bringing in investor money in January. Still, good times for active fund flows can’t compare to the index fund and ETF flows behemoth. “It isn’t that anybody thinks active management shouldn’t exist, but the vast majority of flows are coming from fairly unsophisticated individual investors going into big indexes and big target data funds,” Nadig added. 

Ellis, who first made his mark in finance by founding the consulting group Greenwich Associates, and was later a board member at low-cost index fund giant The Vanguard Group, is worried about the ETF space as it grows. “What you have to be really positive about is the increase of ETFs that are available and a steady reduction in the fees that are being charged,” he told CNBC’s Bob Pisani.

But Ellis, whose new book is called “Rethinking Investing – A Very Short Guide to Very Long-Term Investing” said success has bred some new investor dangers. “You must worry about the ETFs that are being produced much more for the salesperson than the buyer and how they’re too specialized and too narrow,” he said.  Ellis is especially concerned about leveraged ETFs “so that you get explosive upside but also explosive downside.” 

Ellis believes investors have to look for ETFs “that are best for you, and what you want to accomplish.”

Nadig made the point that technology has become the great equalizer in the markets: everyone has it, meaning getting an edge on other traders who often have the same or similar technology, is difficult.  “Active management is possible, you’ll just never find it in advance,” he said.

“The ironic reason that active managers underperform is that they’re all so good at what they’re trying to do, they cancel each other out,” Ellis said. Because of the computing power and quantitative models that are now so accessible to stock pickers, “it’s like playing poker with all the cards face up,” he added.

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How buy now, payer later apps could be crushing your credit

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Small, everyday purchases like a meal from DoorDash are now able to be financed through eat now, pay later options — a practice that some experts deem “predatory.”

“You’ve got to have enough sense to not follow the urge to finance a taco, okay? You have got to be an adult,” career coach Ken Coleman told “The Big Money Show,” Wednesday. 

“This is predatory, and it’s going to get a lot of people in deep trouble.”

RISKS OF BUY NOW, PAY LATER: ‘TICKET TO OVERSPENDING,’ EXPERT SAYS

klarna, doordash

DoorDash and Klarna are now partnering up to extend buy now, pay later options to consumers. (Reuters, Getty / Getty Images)

Financial wellness experts are continuously sounding the alarm to cash-strapped consumers, warning them of the devastating impact this financial strategy could have on their credit score as some lenders will begin reporting those loans to credit agencies.

Consumers may risk getting hit with late fees and interest rates, similar to credit cards. 

“So your sandwich might show up on your FICO score, especially if you pay for it late,” FOX Business’ Jackie DeAngelis explained.

EXPERTS WARN HIDDEN RISKS OF BUY NOW, PAY LATER

Major players like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna have risen to prominence at a time when Americans continue to grapple with persisting inflation, high interest rates and student loan payments, which resumed in October 2023 after a pause due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“The Big Money Show” co-host Taylor Riggs offered a different perspective, suggesting that company CEOs have a “duty” to attract as many customers as they want. 

“Unfortunately for me, this always comes down to financial literacy — which I know is so much in your heart about training people to save now by later,” she told Coleman, who regularly offers financial advice to callers on “The Ramsey Show.”

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Coleman continued to come to the defense of financially “desperate” consumers, arguing that companies are targeting “immature” customers. 

“I’m for American businesses being able to do whatever they want to do under the law. That’s fine. But let’s still call it what it is: it’s predatory, and they know who their customers are,” Coleman concluded, “And I’m telling you, they’re talking about weak-minded, immature, desperate people.”

FOX Business’ Daniella Genovese contributed to this report.

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DeepSeek AI excitement spills over to Hong Kong’s IPO market

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The Exchange Square Complex, which houses the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on Feb. 26, 2025.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BEIJING — Chinese companies are jumping at a window of opportunity to go public in Hong Kong as global investors start to return to the region, following the news of DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence breakthrough in late January.

It’s a level of excitement that has not been felt for more than three years, despite the overhang of U.S. trade tensions. Initial public offerings are a lucrative way for early investors in startups to exit and reap a return.

“Everyone is working so perfectly together. IPO candidates, the investor and the regulators,” said George Chan, global IPO leader at EY. “All these three parties are working so perfectly at this moment to actually cultivate a healthy Hong Kong IPO market.”

“The U.S. long-term fund has returned. It shows investors are getting more confident [about] China,” he said, adding that post-IPO performance has also been encouraging.

Chinese bubble tea giant Mixue went public on March 3 in a highly oversubscribed Hong Kong listing. And in a sign of more to come, Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) filed in February for what could be Hong Kong’s largest IPO since 2021, when short-video company Kuaishou listed.

Still think it is a little risky to bet on specific companies or industries in China: GAO Capital

News of China-based DeepSeek’s claims to rival OpenAI’s ChatGPT in reasoning capabilities at a lower cost — despite U.S. restrictions on Chinese access to advanced chips for training AI models — hit global tech stocks in late January, while spurring a rally in China. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index surged to three-year highs.

Chinese President Xi Jinping also held a rare meeting with tech entrepreneurs in February, and Beijing has signaled greater support for the private sector, after taking a more restrictive stance in recent years.

Six initial public offerings in Hong Kong raised more than 1 billion Hong Kong dollars ($130 million) in the first quarter — a jump from just one listing of that size in the year-ago period — according to KPMG.

In all, the consultancy said, Hong Kong saw 15 IPOs in all of the first quarter which raised 17.7 billion HKD — the best start to a year since 2021.

There’s still a long way to go before recovering to that level. Hong Kong saw 32 IPOs in the first quarter of 2021 that raised a whopping 132.7 billion HKD, according to KPMG.

The Hong Kong stock exchange has adjusted its listing rules in the interim, including ones that support companies already listed in mainland China to offer shares in Hong Kong.

In addition to CATL, other companies listed in mainland China — Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Mabwell, Haitian Flavoring and Food, Fortior Tech and Sanhua Intelligent Controls — are “actively seeking Hong Kong listings,” said Tiger Brokers, an underwriter of many Chinese companies’ IPOs in the U.S. and Hong Kong.

“Chinese regulators are encouraging companies to list in Hong Kong to broaden financing channels and support the outbound merger and acquisition needs of Chinese enterprises,” the firm said.

Still not out of the woods

Back in the summer of 2021, the fallout over Chinese ride-hailing company Didi’s IPO in the U.S. prompted both countries’ regulators to scrutinize what was then a wave of Chinese companies listing in New York.

The major issues have since been resolved and Beijing has clarified rules for Chinese companies wanting to list outside the mainland. But the Trump administration indicated in its “America First Investment Policy” that it could increase scrutiny on U.S. capital flowing to China, on top of heightened tariffs.

The U.S. and China have yet to indicate when their two leaders might meet in an attempt to forge a deal. A surge of interest in AI and tech are also not yet enough to speed up a recovery in China’s economy.

“At this point in time, all we can see is the good indicators,” EY’s Chan said. But “there could be one single incident happening which could pretty much reverse the trend.”

“Things tend to have a pattern,” he said. “If things can keep on for three months, four months, it will likely continue for the rest of the year.”

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Treasury Secretary Bessent says market woes are more about tech stock sell-off than Trump’s tariffs

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters outside the West Wing after doing a television interview on the North Lawn of the White House on March 13, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday the sell-off in the stock market is due more to a sharp pullback in the biggest technology stocks instead of the protectionist policies coming from the Trump administration.

“I’m trying to be Secretary of Treasury, not a market commentator. What I would point out is that especially the Nasdaq peaked on DeepSeek day so that’s a Mag 7 problem, not a MAGA problem,” Bessent said on Bloomberg TV Wednesday evening.

Bessent was referring to Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, whose new language models sparked a rout in U.S. technology stocks in late January. The emergence of DeepSeek’s highly competitive and potentially much cheaper models stoked doubts about the billions that the big U.S. tech companies are spending on AI.

The so-called Magnificent 7 stocks — Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia — started selling off drastically, pulling the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite into correction territory. The tech-heavy benchmark is down about 13% from its record high reached on December 16.

However, the secretary downplayed the impact from President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs, which caught many investors off guard and fueled fears of a re-acceleration in inflation, slower economic growth and even a recession. Many investors have blamed the tariff rollout for driving the S&P 500 briefly into correction territory from its record reached in late February. Wall Street defines a correction as a drop of 10% from a recent high.

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S&P 500, YTD

Trump signed an aggressive “reciprocal tariff” policy at the White House Wednesday evening, slapping duties of at least 10% and even higher for some countries. The actions sparked a huge sell-off in the stock market overnight, with the S&P 500 futures declining nearly 4% and the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding 1,100 points. The losses will likely but the S&P 500 back into correction territory in Thursday’s session.

“It’s going to be fine if we put the best economic conditions in place,” Bessent said in a separate interview on Fox Wednesday evening. “If you go back and look, the stock market actually peaked on the [DeepSeek] Chinese AI announcement. So a lot of what we have seen has been just an idiosyncratic tech sell-off.”

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