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Students earning college degrees notched steepest decline on record

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College degree earners fall nearly 3%

For the second year in a row, the number of students earning a bachelor’s or associate degree declined, according to a recent report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Overall, undergraduate degree earners fell nearly 3% in the 2022-23 academic year — the steepest decline ever recorded, the report found, while bachelor’s degree earners sank to the lowest level in nearly a decade after notching a one-year loss of almost 100,000 graduates.

Meanwhile, the number of students earning a certificate hit a 10-year high, largely due to the growth in vocational programs.

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“That number of newly minted college graduates has been shrinking,” said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Nationwide, enrollment has lagged since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, when a significant number of students decided against a four-year degree in favor of joining the workforce or completing a certificate program instead.

High schoolers are putting more emphasis on career training and post-college employment, other reports also show.

Now, fewer students are pursuing a four-year degree and more students are stopping out, due to financial constraints, among other factors, Shapiro said.

“Shorter-term certificates have picked up some of the slack, accelerating declines in associate and bachelor’s degree earners mean fewer new college graduates this year.”

Community college pathway is ‘at risk’ 

Historically, a two-year degree was considered an economical alternative to a bachelor’s, or even a more affordable pathway to a four-year college. These days, the latter is less likely to be the case.

In fact, just 16% of all community college students ultimately attain a bachelor’s degree, according to recent reports by the Community College Research Center at Columbia University, the Aspen Institute College Excellence Program and the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Community college as a stepping stone is “at risk,” Shapiro said, and “that’s very bad news.”

“That escalator… has been one of the most promising, if not always the most successful, paths to access to the bachelor’s degree for lower-income and disadvantaged students,” Shapiro said. “Those students, in particular, will face more challenges.”

(In his budget for fiscal 2025, President Joe Biden proposed expanding access to free community college across the U.S. to make higher education less costly.)

FAFSA issues could also hurt enrollment

FAFSA rollout bugs and blunders: Here's what you need to know

Ongoing problems with the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid have also discouraged many high school seniors from applying for the financial aid necessary to afford college. Those that opt out are often low-income students, who stand to benefit most from financial aid and increasingly feel priced out of a postsecondary education.

The FAFSA serves as the gateway to all federal aid money, including loans, work study and grants, the latter of which are the most desirable kinds of assistance because they typically do not need to be repaid.

Submitting a FAFSA is also one of the best predictors of whether a high school senior will go on to college, according to the National College Attainment Network. Seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to immediately enroll in college. 

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As of the latest update, only roughly 7 million 2024-25 FAFSA applications have been submitted and sent to schools, according to the U.S. Department of Education, less than half of the more than 17 million students who use the FAFSA in ordinary years.

Still, it’s too soon to say whether those remaining students will ultimately apply for aid and how that could impact their decisions about college in the fall, according to Sandy Baum senior fellow in the Center on Education Data and Policy at the Urban Institute.

If students don’t fill it out, some will not go to college,” Baum said.

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2025 is a renter’s market — here’s how to take advantage

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Vgajic | E+ | Getty Images

If you’re a renter, the market may be shifting in your favor.

As of December, the median asking rent price in the U.S. was $1,695, down 0.5% — or $8 — from November, according to a new report by Realtor.com.

The latest rent price is 1.1% lower — or $18 — from a year before, and down 3.7% from peak highs in July 2022.

We’re calling it a renter’s market.

Daryl Fairweather

chief economist at Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm

Rental affordability is improving in part because of a “construction boom” of new apartment buildings during the pandemic, according to Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.

“There are still units coming online now from projects that were started back in 2021, 2022,” she said.

With more new units available, some property managers are considering lowering their asking prices to attract tenants, experts say.

This means renters should have more negotiating power when it comes to the terms of their leases, Fairweather explained.

“We’re calling it a renter’s market. We think that’s going to continue for the next year,” she said.

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To be sure, the volume of newly built apartments is concentrated in some areas more than others, making rent prices decline faster in certain parts of the country.

By way of example, Austin, Texas, where the median rent is $1,394 as of December, saw some of the highest levels of multifamily housing construction over the past few years, according to Redfin. That figure is down from $1,482 in August when the median price fell 17.6% from a year prior.

Rents in Austin are likely to continue to fall as supply grows and demand balances itself out, experts say.

What you’re able to leverage as a renter will depend on what’s happening in your current market or where you plan to live.

Here are three key steps to consider if you’re on the rental market this year: 

1. Find out what other units are renting for in the area

You might live in an area that is becoming more affordable. To find out, compare what other units in the neighborhood similar to yours are renting for — it’s the “best way to arm yourself” in negotiations with your landlord or property manager, Fairweather said.  

“If your property manager is trying to raise your rent, you can come to them with information to show them that your rent shouldn’t be increased,” she said. “In some markets, it should even go down.” 

Pending home sales fell 5.5% in December, missing estimates

If you’ve been living in the same unit for a couple years and have consistently paid rent on time, try to use that history to negotiate for a lower monthly rent, said Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com.

A “good point to negotiate from” is to show your landlord that rent prices are coming down for similar properties but you have no desire to move ― unless you can save money elsewhere, he said.

Tenant turnover can be expensive for landlords, especially if the property sits unoccupied for a few months.

2. Negotiate any additional fees you pay

3. Consider teaming up with housemates

Meanwhile, if you’re living in an area that’s still “really expensive to rent,” consider splitting a larger unit with other people, Berner said.

Having roommates or housemates is a tried-and-true way to lower housing costs. It’s more effective now because the cost for larger units in some places is not growing as fast as rents for smaller units, he said.

“You can find a pretty good deal on maybe a three-bedroom apartment and split it with other folks,” he said. 

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2 moves retirees may make now to boost benefit checks

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A customer walks by a display of fresh eggs at a grocery store on Sept. 25, 2024 in San Anselmo, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

The first Social Security benefit checks for 2025 include a 2.5% increase — the lowest annual cost-of-living adjustment since 2021.

For retirees, that amounts to an increase of about $50 per month, on average, according to the Social Security Administration.

Still, amid stubborn inflation and persistent elevated costs for everyday items, some retirees may feel that the increase is not enough.

“I think overall folks are glad to see the raise,” said Jim Blair, founder at NSSA Professionals and a former Social Security administrator. “It’s not necessarily keeping up with everything, but it’s better than nothing.”

The latest government inflation data shows the measure used to calculate the annual Social Security COLA — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W — was up 2.8% over the last 12 months as of December.

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Another measure used by the Federal Reserve to gauge long-run inflation — core inflation excluding food and energy under the personal consumption expenditures price index — was up 2.8% in December, according to data released on Friday.

For retirees who would like to see bigger Social Security benefit checks, there are a couple of strategies they may consider trying, Blair said.

Adjust your tax withholdings

Social Security beneficiaries may have up to 22% of their benefits withheld for taxes.

“If you’re struggling a little bit, particularly if you’re not in too high of a tax bracket, you can always adjust that,” Blair said.

If you’ve been getting refunds, reducing how much you have withheld will allow you to access those funds sooner, though you will get back less during next year’s tax filing season, Blair said.

But there may be a risk you may owe money at tax time next year, depending on your personal circumstances, he said.

Beneficiaries can adjust the tax withholdings on their benefits by filing Form W-4V with the Social Security Administration.

Here's how to calculate your personal inflation rate

Ask to have your Medicare premiums adjusted

Most retirees pay a standard monthly premium rate for Medicare Part B, which covers preventive care, medically necessary services and durable medical equipment.

In 2025, that standard monthly premium is $185 per month.

But higher-income retirees pay more for what’s known as an income-related monthly adjustment amount, or IRMAA.

That also applies to monthly premiums for Medicare Part D prescription drug plans, which have average estimated monthly premiums of $46.50 in 2025.

The premiums are based on income tax filings from two years prior. If you’ve since had a life changing event that has prompted your income to go down — such as if you’ve retired, sold an income-producing business or survived the death of a spouse — you can apply to have your Medicare withholdings adjusted.

To do that, complete Form SSA-44 and submit it to the Social Security Administration.

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How tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico may impact U.S. consumers

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President Donald Trump on Jan. 27, 2025 in Doral, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images

President Donald Trump has repeatedly discussed imposing tariffs, both on the campaign trail and since taking office — and the first tranche, on goods from Canada, China and Mexico will take effect Feb. 1, the White House confirmed on Friday.

While there are still some unknowns, one thing is clear, economists said: U.S. consumers should brace for a negative financial impact.

It’s “hard to find positives” from tariffs, said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, whose research specializes in trade with China and global supply chains.

Trump plans to put 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% duty on China, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said Friday.

China, Mexico and Canada are the three largest trading partners with the U.S., as measured by imported goods. They respectively supplied about $536 billion, $455 billion, and $437 billion of goods to the U.S. in 2022, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1

Tariffs are a tax on foreign imports. U.S. businesses pay that tax to the federal government.

Many businesses will funnel those extra costs to customers — either directly or indirectly — which is why tariffs generally trigger higher prices for consumers, economists said.

“Part of these tariffs will be passed on to consumers,” Lovely said.

Americans could also find they have fewer choices for brands and products stocked on store shelves, she said.

Exemptions may ‘limit the damage’ to consumers

There are still many question marks over the looming tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico.

For example, it’s unclear if any imports will be exempt. Trump suggested this week, for example, that Canadian oil might be exempt. The White House said the tariffs will be open for public inspection on Saturday.

Discussions around such specifics are “ongoing,” a White House official told CNBC Friday morning.

Auto stocks will be hit hard by Trump's proposed Canada & Mexico tariffs, says RBC's Tom Narayan

“There are always exemptions and carve-outs,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.

Trump might try to “limit the damage to the U.S. consumer” via those exemptions, Zandi said. For example, he could choose not to impose duties on apparel from China, avocados from Mexico or cheese from Quebec, he said.

Debates about economic impact

The White House expects tariffs and Trump’s broader economic agenda to benefit the U.S. economy.

Trump imposed tariffs during his first term that — along with tax cuts, deregulation and energy policy — “resulted in historic job, wage, and investment growth with no inflation,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a written statement.

During his second term, Trump will use tariffs again to “usher in a new era of growth and prosperity for American industry and workers,” Desai said.

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A 25% Canada-Mexico tariff and 10% China tariff would raise about $1.3 trillion in revenue through 2035 on a net basis, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates. That revenue may be used to partially offset the cost of tax cuts, a package that might cost more than $5 trillion over 10 years.

However, a 10% additional tariff on China would shrink the U.S. economy by $55 billion during the Trump administration’s second term, assuming China retaliates with its own tariffs, according to an analysis by Warwick McKibbin and Marcus Noland, economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

A 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would cause a $200 billion reduction in U.S. gross domestic product, they found.

Meanwhile, economists expect more tariffs in the future.

On the campaign trail, Trump floated a 10% or 20% universal tariff on all imports and a tariff of at least 60% on Chinese goods, for example.

A 20% worldwide tariff and a 60% levy on Chinese goods would raise costs by $3,000 in 2025 for the average U.S. household, according to an October analysis by the Tax Policy Center.

“Broad-based, universal tariffs and the damage they will do is not really a debate,” Zandi said. “They will do damage. It’s just a question of how much and to whom.”

How tariffs may impact consumers

Consumers can pay for tariffs both directly and indirectly, economists said.

Tariffs on China would likely have such the largest direct impact on consumers — the bulk of what China exports to the U.S. is consumer goods like apparel, toys and electronics, Zandi said.

China is the “dominant supplier” of toys and sports equipment to the U.S., and provides 40% of its footwear imports, and 25% of its electronics and textiles, according to a recent analysis by PIIE economists.

Mexico and Canada tariffs would also “put upward pressure on food prices,” according to PIIE economists.

The nations are “important sources” of vegetables, accounting for 47% of total U.S. imports, and prepared foodstuffs (42%), for example. Transportation equipment and machinery, electronics and fuel are other sectors that stand to be most impacted, they found.

“The U.S. imports roughly 40% of its crude oil, with Canada as the dominant supplier,” Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, a financial consulting firm, said in a written statement.

“If oil is hit with tariffs, the impact could hit energy markets, pushing up costs for businesses and consumers,” Green wrote.

However, domestic energy producers, certain U.S. manufacturers and other industries “could see short-term gains from reduced competition,” he added.

Indirectly, U.S. producers might raise their prices because they face less foreign competition for certain goods, Lydia Cox, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said during a recent webinar.

U.S. companies that use tariffed goods to manufacture their products might also raise prices for downstream goods, Cox said. For example, steel tariffs might lead to higher prices for cars, heavy machinery and other products that use steel.

Tariffs ‘create a lot of collateral damage’

Other nations might also respond with retaliatory tariffs that start a trade war, which might cause U.S. producers to lose sales abroad, she said.

“Unlike Canada and Mexico, for which retaliation would be inconceivable, China has retaliated in the past and would likely do so again,” PIIE economists wrote recently.

Further, tariffs may have the unintended consequence of destroying jobs, economists said.

Their ability to create U.S. jobs is “vastly, vastly overstated,” said Lovely of PIIE.

Take steel, for example. There are 80 workers in jobs in industries that use steel as an input for every one job that produces steel, Cox found in a recent paper.

Tariffs create “a lot of collateral damage along the way,” which is why economists warn against broad-based use, Cox said.

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