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Susie Wiles, the unassuming operative powering Donald Trump’s campaign

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SUSIE WILES cannot control everything. Take Donald Trump, her boss: his rants on the campaign trail, his unvetted social-media posts, his questionable guests at Mar-a-Lago. Some of these over the past three years, made her job harder. The Democrats, too, are beyond her reach—their decision to replace Joe Biden, around whom Ms Wiles had designed a campaign, scrambled her plans.

But Ms Wiles, a 67-year-old grandmother who has spent decades helping Republicans get elected in Florida, works hard to control what she can. She is level-headed, highly organised and a problem-solver. With her boxy blazers, mirrored shades and hair so blond it sometimes appears silver, she can seem severe—but is by all accounts warm and affable. She has developed a powerful network of politicians, policy types, lobbyists and reporters. The loyal staffers she has brought over to the Trump campaign are known as the “Florida mafia”.

Her success as de facto manager of Mr Trump’s campaign will depend on what voters do on November 5th. But the low-key Ms Wiles, who avoids photo ops and is reportedly quick to give others credit, has already achieved a lot. Mr Trump left the White House in 2021 as a political pariah. He is on the verge of a triumphant return.

She has acknowledged to Politico that she sees similarities between the former president and her late father, Pat Summerall, an American-football player, who became a famous sports broadcaster, and an alcoholic. Like Mr Trump he was a very hard man to manage. Her mother ensured that the home functioned well in spite of him, before finally convincing him to get treatment.

Ms Wiles grew up prosperous in New Jersey, playing tennis and basketball. She got her start in politics by working for Jack Kemp, a Republican congressman from New York who had been her father’s teammate. She worked for Ronald Reagan, on his presidential campaign and in the White House, and in 1985 moved to Florida with her then husband.

Ms Wiles started a political-consulting firm in Jacksonville and raised two daughters. She worked for three Republican mayors and developed a reputation as a smart, pragmatic and well-connected operative. She helped an unknown businessman named Rick Scott win the governorship (he is now in the Senate). She seems to be motivated more by the challenge of winning a campaign than by ideology. None of her previous bosses, however, has been as challenging as Mr Trump.

Florida was a swing state in 2016, considered by some a bellwether. Mr Trump cold-called her to head up his operation in Florida, where he lived part-time at Mar-a-Lago, his resort in Palm Beach. “As a card-carrying member of the [GOP] establishment, many thought my full-throated endorsement of the Trump candidacy was ill-advised—even crazy,” Ms. Wiles told the New York Times in 2016. After a polling dip he nearly fired her that autumn (a dressing down reportedly delivered while he was eating a steak at Mar-a-Lago), but she insisted she could deliver.

As Florida went, so went the country—for Mr Trump. Ms Wiles then worked for Ron DeSantis, a little-known congressman whose bid for governor was salvaged when Mr Trump endorsed him. He won, but made the unwise decision to cut ties with her. She helped Mr Trump win Florida in the 2020 election, though he lost the presidency. After his defeat, and the January 6th Capitol riot, it was far from certain that he would run again. But in early 2021, when few others would have taken the gamble, she agreed to join the board of a fund-raising committee he was setting up to channel money to midterm races. Within weeks she took control of a chaotic post-White House operation, which was endorsing down-ballot Republican candidates, covering Mr Trump’s allies’ legal fees and charting the ex-president’s next steps. .

By November 2022 he had declared he would run again. Ms Wiles and Chris LaCivita, her campaign co-manager (though in practice not her equal), developed a strategy that would play to their candidate’s strengths. At first Mr DeSantis, who aspired to be the Republicans’ presidential candidate, had more money and a bigger operation in Iowa, where the first Republican primary takes place. So rather than knock on endless doors, they used a lean, targeted plan to identify Trump fans who might not even be registered to vote. They won Iowa in a landslide. In the general election they pushed—successfully, according to poll numbers from July—an utterly simple narrative: Mr Biden was weak, and Mr Trump was strong. They similarly pushed for a bare-bones party platform—no more “textbook-long” treatises, they wrote. The resulting 16-page document bore Mr Trump’s signature policy proposals, rendered in his style (“We are a Nation in SERIOUS DECLINE”).

Ms Wiles has claimed to have convinced her boss to do some practical things: for example, urge his supporters to vote by mail and tone down the stolen-election comments. In reality he remains paranoid about election integrity, cannot help but insist that he won in 2020 and has never stayed “disciplined” for long. But his message still resonates, his delivery still thrills, his character flaws still leave many Republicans undeterred and either enthusiastic supporters or ready to hold their noses and vote for him. If enough of them do, Ms Wiles might be heading for an even harder Trump-management job. He may well offer her the job of White House chief of staff.

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Young Americans are losing confidence in economy, and it shows online

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For economists, harbingers of a recession can include a slowdown in consumer spending and rising unemployment.

For the chronically online, indicators can range from the perceived fall of fake eyelashes to more commercials for online colleges. Or, maybe, it’s a skin care company selling eggs.

And for Sydney Brams, a Miami-based influencer and realtor, it’s a decline in prices on clothing resale platform Depop.

“I was literally running to my parents and my boyfriend, and I’m like, ‘Look at this. Look, something is very wrong,'” Brams told CNBC after seeing some Depop sellers “come back to Earth,” as she described it. “I feel like Chicken Little.”

Making a joke of so-called recession indicators in everyday life has gained traction in recent weeks as the stock market pullback and weak economic data raised anxiety around the health of the economy. This trend also underscores the uniquely sharp sense of financial dissatisfaction among America’s young adults.

Read more CNBC analysis on culture and the economy

Many of today’s young adults experienced childhood during the Great Recession and came of age as the pandemic threw everything from in-person work to global supply chains out of orbit. Now, they’re concerned about what’s been deemed a white-collar job market slowdown and President Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policies — the latter of which has battered financial markets in recent weeks.

To be clear, when they share their favorite recession indicators, they’re kidding — but they don’t see the future path of the U.S. economy as a laughing matter.

“It’s gallows humor,” said James Cohen, a digital culture expert and assistant professor of media studies at Queens College in New York. “This is very much a coping mechanism.”

These omens can be found across popular social media platforms such as X, TikTok and Instagram. Some users see cultural preludes to a recession in, say, Lady Gaga releasing her latest album or the quality of the new season of HBO’s “The White Lotus.” Others chalk up social trends such as learning to play the harmonica or wearing more brown clothing as forewarnings of a financial downturn on the horizon.

Social media users Sydney Michelle (@sydneybmichelle), left; Celeste in DC (@celesteiacevedo), and Sulisa (@ssclosefriendstory) share their personal “recession indicators” on TikTok.

Courtesy: Sydney Michelle | Celeste in DC | Sulisa | via TikTok

Just last week, several social media users saw a slam-dunk opportunity to employ variations of the joke when DoorDash announced a partnership with Klarna for users to finance food delivery orders. A spokesperson for Klarna acknowledged to NBC News that people needing to pay for meals on credit is “a bad indicator for society.”

Some content creators have made the humor an entry point to share budget-friendly alternatives for everyday luxuries that may have to go if wallets are stretched.

“We are heading into a recession. You need to learn how to do your nails at home,” TikTok user Celeste in DC (@celesteiacevedo) said in a video explaining how to use press-on nail kits as opposed to splurging at a salon.

Declining confidence

These jokes don’t exist in a vacuum. Closely followed data illustrates how this trend reflects a growing malaise among young people when it comes to the economy.

At the start of 2024, 18-to-34-year-olds had the highest consumer sentiment reading of any age group tracked by the University of Michigan. The index of this group’s attitude toward the economy has since declined more than 6%, despite the other age cohorts’ ticking higher.

This switch is particularly notable given that young people have historically had stronger readings than their older counterparts, according to Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers at Michigan.

A typically cheerier outlook can be explained by younger people being less likely to have additional financial responsibilities, such as children, Hsu said. But she added that this age bracket is likely grappling with rising housing costs and debt right now, while also feeling uncertainty tied to economic policy under the new White House.

“I have a suspicion that young people are starting to feel like — or have been feeling like — many markers of the American dream are much more difficult to reach now,” Hsu said.

Young people are also less likely to have assets such as property or investments that can buoy financial spirits when the economy flashes warning signs, according to Camelia Kuhnen, a finance professor at the University of North Carolina.

The potential for a recession, which is broadly defined as at least two consecutive quarters of the national economy contracting, has been on the minds of both Wall Street and Main Street. A Deutsche Bank survey conducted March 17-20 found the average global market strategist saw a nearly 43% chance of a recession over the next 12 months.

An index of consumer expectations for the future released Tuesday by the Conference Board slid to its lowest level in 12 years, falling well below the threshold that signals a recession ahead. Meanwhile, Google searches in March for the word “recession” hit highs not seen since 2022.

This onslaught of news comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on March 16 that there were “no guarantees” the U.S. would avoid a recession. Bessent said a “detox” period is needed for the national economy, which he and other Trump administration officials have argued is too reliant on government spending.

‘The vibes are off’

Though the recession humor has had a yearslong history online, it’s gained momentum in recent weeks as the state of the economy has become a more common talking point, according to Cohen, the Queens College professor. While a recession indicator entry was added to the digital culture encyclopedia Know Your Meme only this month, the jokes have tracked back to at least 2019.

“Especially with Gen Z, there’s a lot of jokes with never being in a stable economic environment,” said Max Rosenzweig, a 24-year-old user experience researcher whose personal recession indicator was the number of people he’s seen wearing berets. “It’s funny, but it’s like, we’re making light of something that is scary.”

Cohen said he heard from Gen Z students that this type of humor helped them realize others are experiencing the same uncertainty. These students may not feel control over the country’s economic standing, he said, but they can at least find community and levity in a precarious moment.

Cohen sees the recent surge of this humor as a sort of “barometer” for what he calls the vibes around the economy. His conclusion: “The vibes are off.”

Brams sees a similar story playing out in South Florida and on social media. “I’m not going to lie, it just feels really grim,” the 26-year-old said.

But, “it’s not anything that me or my friend or my boyfriend or my parents can really do anything about,” she said. “There’s no choice but to just stay in your lane, try to keep your job, try to find joy where you can and just stay afloat.”

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Economics

Texas troopers are in more and more lethal car chases

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A RED CAR weaves in and out of traffic on a highway in El Paso, Texas. It’s June 2022 and Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) troopers are in hot pursuit. They are chasing someone they suspect of smuggling migrants across the southern border. The high-speed pursuit, which reaches 100mph (160kph), eventually runs parallel to the border wall. As the troopers drive closer they seem to hit the car. It flips and lands upside down. One passenger flies through a window; the others crawl out. The DPS radio traffic is mostly unintelligible except for one word. “Shit.”

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Economics

Elon Musk is powersliding through the federal government

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But to what end?

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