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Tariff ruling threatens $2T fiscal hole in Trump plan

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The court ruling that blocked much of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs threatens to blow what some economists estimate as a $2 trillion hole into the U.S. fiscal outlook over the coming decade, should the judgment stay in place. 

The ruling could also present a new obstacle for Republicans who are relying on the revenue to help offset the cost of a roughly $4 trillion tax cut moving through Congress. 

“At face value, this ruling will take away billions of dollars of prospective tariff revenue” annually, said Douglas Elmendorf, a Harvard Kennedy School professor and former director of the Congressional Budget Office — a nonpartisan arm of the U.S. legislature.

A federal appeals court Thursday paused the Court of International Trade’s Wednesday ruling striking down a swath of Trump’s levies, and the White House is pushing to overturn the judgment entirely, aiming to appeal to the Supreme Court as soon as Friday.

If the CIT ruling survives appeal, it would remove duties that would have raised nearly $200 billion on an annual basis, according to estimates by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. Trump and his aides had been relying on that increased revenue to get Republican lawmakers united behind the president’s “big beautiful bill” tax-cut package.

Plan B

The $2 trillion in added revenue over a decade would have gone some way toward offsetting the cost of the tax cuts, as measured by the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, as the legislation’s spending reductions aren’t expected to cover even half the tab. 

Failing judicial success, Trump’s trade team would have to stitch together duties using executive authority other than the one struck down. But the process would take months, and decisions could still end up facing legal challenges, economists say. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox News Thursday that “anything that the courts do to get in the way both harms the American people in terms of trade and in terms of tariff revenue.”

Even a short-term hit to revenue would pose problems: the government is currently barred from raising net new debt, and the Treasury has been using special accounting maneuvers to make good on payments. Monthly customs revenue just hit a record of over $16 billion, helping the department’s cash flows.

Barclays Plc warned that the court ruling will bring forward the date by when the Treasury will have exhausted its cash and extraordinary measures. That in turn builds pressure on Republicans to get the tax bill done, as it includes an increase in the debt limit.

Average tariff

“The fiscal outlook just got a lot worse as a result of this court ruling,” said Ernie Tedeschi, who is director of economics at Yale University’s Budget Lab and a former Biden administration official. “Very high tariffs just got less likely.”

The Budget Lab also estimated revenues would be about $2 trillion lower over 10 years — roughly $700 billion compared with $2.7 trillion — if the court ruling stands, and current tariff levels remain in place.

Wednesday’s court ruling involved Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to threaten the highest tariff rates in more than a century. The April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs involved a universal baseline levy of 10% plus much bigger rates for various trading partners — though Trump had put those on pause prior to the ruling. Bloomberg Economics estimated that the average US tariff rate got as high as nearly 27% at one point. The court ruling takes it below 6%.

Other channels Trump has to impose tariffs include Section 232 authority to impose sectoral levies. The administration has already invoked it to set the stage for import taxes on items including smartphones and jet engines. Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber and other products are also being eyed for tariffs. Existing duties are in place on steel and autos, among others.

“There are other avenues to do the tariffs,” said Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, who sees a $180 billion annual revenue hit from the court ruling.

Economists at Citi, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect the administration will ultimately raise the tariff revenue it needs.

Estimates contested

White House Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran on May 27 told Bloomberg Television the tariffs would take in hundreds of billions of dollars a year, helping alleviate concerns about the fiscal deficit.

Those estimates have bolstered the Trump administration against charges that its tax bill blows a hole in the budget.

“The blatantly wrong claim that the one, big beautiful bill increases the deficit is based on the Congressional Budget Office and other scorekeepers who use shoddy assumptions,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday. They have “historically been terrible at forecasting,” she said.

After the House passed a version of the tax bill earlier this month, it’s now in the Senate’s hands. It’s possible that Senate Republicans could propose adding tariffs in the multitrillion dollar spending bill to help offset costs, though it’s unclear it would garner enough support to pass.

“They might include trying to get some tariffs,” said Alex Durante, senior economist at the Tax Foundation. “But I really don’t see the appetite for something as broad as what the president has done.”

Trump in a Truth Social post Thursday evening blasted the option, saying, “In other words, hundreds of politicians would sit around DC for weeks, and even months, trying to come to a conclusion as to what to charge other countries that are treating us unfairly.”

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AICPA wants Congress to change tax bill

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The American Institute of CPAs is asking leaders of the Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee to make changes in the wide-ranging tax and spending legislation that was passed in the House last week and is now in the Senate, especially provisions that have a significant impact on accounting firms and tax professionals.

In a letter Thursday, the AICPA outlined its concerns about changes in the deductibility of state and local taxes pass-through entities such as accounting and law firms that fit the definition of “specified service trades or businesses.” The AICPA urged CPAs to contact lawmakers ahead of passage of the bill in the House and spoke out earlier about concerns to changes to the deductibility of state and local taxes for pass-through entities. 

“While we support portions of the legislation, we do have significant concerns regarding several provisions in the bill, including one which threatens to severely limit the deductibility of state and local tax (SALT) by certain businesses,” wrote AICPA Tax Executive Committee chair Cheri Freeh in the letter. “This outcome is contrary to the intentions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is to strengthen small businesses and enhance small business relief.”

The AICPA urged lawmakers to retain entity-level deductibility of state and local taxes for all pass-through entities, strike the contingency fee provision, allow excess business loss carryforwards to offset business and nonbusiness income, and retain the deductibility of state and local taxes for all pass-through entities.

The proposal goes beyond accounting firms. According to the IRS, “an SSTB is a trade or business involving the performance of services in the fields of health, law, accounting, actuarial science, performing arts, consulting, athletics, financial services, investing and investment management, trading or dealing in certain assets, or any trade or business where the principal asset is the reputation or skill of one or more of its employees or owners.”

The AICPA argued that SSTBs would be unfairly economically disadvantaged simply by existing as a certain type of business and the parity gap among SSTBs and non-SSTBs and C corporations would widen.

Under current tax law (and before the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017), it noted, C corporations could deduct SALT in determining their federal taxable income. Prior to the TCJA, owners of PTEs (and sole proprietorships that itemized deductions) were also allowed to deduct SALT on income earned by the PTE (or sole proprietorship). 

“However, the TCJA placed a limitation on the individual SALT deduction,” Freeh wrote. “In response, 36 states (of the 41 that have a state income tax) enacted or proposed various approaches to mitigate the individual SALT limitation by shifting the SALT liability on PTE income from the owner to the PTE. This approach restored parity among businesses and was approved by the IRS through Notice 2020-75, by allowing PTEs to deduct PTE taxes paid to domestic jurisdictions in computing the entity’s federal non-separately stated income or loss. Under this approved approach, the PTE tax does not count against partners’/owners’ individual federal SALT deduction limit. Rather, the PTE pays the SALT, and the partners/owners fully deduct the amount of their distributive share of the state taxes paid by the PTE for federal income tax purposes.”

The AICPA pointed out that C corporations enjoy a number of advantages, including an unlimited SALT deduction, a 21% corporate tax rate, a lower tax rate on dividends for owners, and the ability for owners to defer income. 

“However, many SSTBs are restricted from organizing as a C corporation, leaving them with no option to escape the harsh results of the SSTB distinction and limiting their SALT deduction,” said the letter. “In addition, non-SSTBs are entitled to an unfettered qualified business income (QBI) deduction under Internal Revenue Code section 199A, while SSTBs are subject to harsh limitations on their ability to claim a QBI deduction.”

The AICPA also believes the bill would add significant complexity and uncertainty for all pass-through entities, which would be required to perform complex calculations and analysis to determine if they are eligible for any SALT deduction. “To determine eligibility for state and local income taxes, non-SSTBs would need to perform a gross receipts calculation,” said the letter. “To determine eligibility for all other state and local taxes, pass-through entities would need to determine eligibility under the substitute payments provision (another complex set of calculations). Our laws should not discourage the formation of critical service-based businesses and, therefore, disincentivize professionals from entering such trades and businesses. Therefore, we urge Congress to allow all business entities, including SSTBs, to deduct state and local taxes paid or accrued in carrying on a trade or business.”

Tax professionals have been hearing about the problem from the Institute’s outreach campaign. 

“The AICPA was making some noise about that provision and encouraging some grassroots lobbying in the industry around that provision, given its impact on accounting firms,” said Jess LeDonne, director of tax technical at the Bonadio Group. “It did survive on the House side. It is still in there, specifically meaning the nonqualifying businesses, including SSTBs. I will wait and see if some of those efforts from industry leaders in the AICPA maybe move the needle on the Senate side.”

Contingency fees

The AICPA also objects to another provision in the bill involving contingency fees affecting the tax profession. It would allow contingency fee arrangements for all tax preparation activities, including those involving the submission of an original tax return. 

“The preparation of an original return on a contingent fee basis could be an incentive to prepare questionable returns, which would result in an open invitation to unscrupulous tax preparers to engage in fraudulent preparation activities that takes advantage of both the U.S. tax system and taxpayers,” said the AICPA. “Unknowing taxpayers would ultimately bear the cost of these fee arrangements, since they will have remitted the fee to the preparer, long before an assessment is made upon the examination of the return.”

The AICPA pointed out that contingent fee arrangements were associated with many of the abuses in the Employee Retention Credit program, in both original and amended return filings.

“Allowing contingent fee arrangements to be used in the preparation of the annual original income tax returns is an open invitation to abuse the tax system and leaves the IRS unable to sufficiently address this problem,” said the letter. “Congress should strike the contingent fee provision from the tax bill. If Congress wants to include the provision on contingency fees, we recommend that Congress provide that where contingent fees are permitted for amended returns and claims for refund, a paid return preparer is required to disclose that the return or claim is prepared under a contingent fee agreement. Disclosure of a contingent fee arrangement deters potential abuse, helps ensure the integrity of the tax preparation process, and ensures compliance with regulatory and ethical standards.”

Business loss carryforwards

The AICPA also called for allowing excess business loss carryforwards to offset business and nonbusiness income. It noted that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act amends Section 461(l)(2) of the Tax Code to provide that any excess business loss carries over as an excess business loss, rather than a net operating loss. 

“This amendment would effectively provide for a permanent disallowance of any business losses unless or until the taxpayer has other business income,” said letter. “For example, a taxpayer that sells a business and recognizes a large ordinary loss in that year would be limited in each carryover year indefinitely, during which time the taxpayer is unlikely to have any additional business income. The bill should be amended to remove this provision and to retain the treatment of excess business loss carryforwards under current law, which is that the excess business loss carries over as a net operating loss (at which point it is no longer subject to section 461(l) in the carryforward year).

AICPA supports provisions

The AICPA added that it supported a number of provisions in the bill, despite those concerns. The provisions it supports and has advocated for in the past include 

• Allow Section 529 plan funds to be used for post-secondary credential expenses;
• Provide tax relief for individuals and businesses affected by natural disasters, albeit not
permanent;
• Make permanent the QBI deduction, increase the QBI deduction percentage, and expand the QBI deduction limit phase-in range;
• Create new Section 174A for expensing of domestic research and experimental expenditures and suspend required capitalization of such expenditures;
• Retain the current increased individual Alternative Minimum Tax exemption amounts;
• Preserve the cash method of accounting for tax purposes;
• Increase the Form 1099-K reporting threshold for third-party payment platforms;
• Make permanent the paid family leave tax credit;
• Make permanent extensions of international tax rates for foreign-derived intangible income, base erosion and anti-abuse tax, and global intangible low-taxed income;
• Exclude from GILTI certain income derived from services performed in the Virgin
Islands;
• Provide greater certainty and clarity via permanent tax provisions, rather than sunset
tax provisions.

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On the move: HHM promotes former intern to partner

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KPMG anoints next management committee; Ryan forms Tariff Task Force; and more news from across the profession.

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Accounting

Mid-year moves: Why placed-in-service dates matter more than ever for cost segregation planning

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In the world of depreciation planning, one small timing detail continues to fly under the radar — and it’s costing taxpayers serious money.

Most people fixate on what a property costs or how much they can write off. But the placed-in-service date — when the IRS considers a property ready and available for use — plays a crucial role in determining bonus depreciation eligibility for cost segregation studies.

And as bonus depreciation continues to phase out (or possibly bounce back), that timing has never been more important.

Why placed-in-service timing gets overlooked

The IRS defines “placed in service” as the moment a property is ready and available for its intended use.

For rentals, that means:

  • It’s available for move-in, and,
  • It’s listed or actively being shown.

But in practice, this definition gets misapplied. Some real estate owners assume the closing date is enough. Others delay listing the property until after the new year, missing key depreciation opportunities.

And that gap between intent and readiness? That’s where deductions quietly slip away.

Bonus depreciation: The clock is ticking

Under current law, bonus depreciation is tapering fast:

  • 2024: 60%
  • 2025: 40%
  • 2026: 20%
  • 2027: 0%

The difference between a property placed in service on December 31 versus January 2 can translate into tens of thousands in immediate deductions.

And just to make things more interesting — on May 9, the House Ways and Means Committee released a draft bill that would reinstate 100% bonus depreciation retroactive to Jan. 20, 2025. (The bill was passed last week by the House as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill and is now with the Senate.)

The result? Accountants now have to think in two timelines:

  • What the current rules say;
  • What Congress might say a few months from now.

It’s a tricky season to navigate — but also one where proactive advice carries real weight.

Typical scenarios where timing matters

Placed-in-service missteps don’t always show up on a tax return — but they quietly erode what could’ve been better results. Some common examples:

  • End-of-year closings where the property isn’t listed or rent-ready until January.
  • Short-term rentals delayed by renovation punch lists or permitting hang-ups.
  • Commercial buildings waiting on tenant improvements before becoming operational.

Each of these cases may involve a difference of just a few days — but that’s enough to miss a year’s bonus depreciation percentage.

Planning moves for the second half of the year

As Q3 and Q4 approach, here are a few moves worth making:

  • Confirm the service-readiness timeline with clients acquiring property in the second half of the year.
  • Educate on what “in service” really means — closing isn’t enough.
  • Create a checklist for documentation: utilities on, photos of rent-ready condition, listings or lease activity.
  • Track bonus depreciation eligibility relative to current and potential legislative shifts.

For properties acquired late in the year, encourage clients to fast-track final steps. The tax impact of being placed in service by December 31 versus January 2 is larger than most realize.

If the window closes, there’s still value

Even if a property misses bonus depreciation, cost segregation still creates long-term savings — especially for high-income earners.

Partial-year depreciation still applies, and in some cases, Form 3115 can allow for catch-up depreciation in future years. The strategy may shift, but the opportunity doesn’t disappear.

Placed-in-service dates don’t usually show up on investor spreadsheets. But they’re one of the most controllable levers in maximizing tax savings. For CPAs and advisors, helping clients navigate that timing correctly can deliver outsized results.

Because at the end of the day, smart tax planning isn’t just about what you buy — it’s about when you put it to work.

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