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The first quarter is on track for negative GDP growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says

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A customer shops for produce at an H-E-B grocery store on Feb. 12, 2025 in Austin, Texas.

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Early economic data for the first quarter of 2025 is pointing towards negative growth, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta measure.

The central bank’s GDPNow tracker of incoming metrics is indicating that gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5% for the January-through-March period, according to an update posted Friday morning.

Fresh indicators showed that consumers spent less than expected during the inclement January weather and exports were weak, which led to the downgrade. Prior to Friday’s consumer spending report, GDPNow had been indicating growth of 2.3% for the quarter.

While the tracker is volatile and typically becomes a more reliable measure much later in the quarter, it does coincide with some other measures that are showing a growth slowdown.

“This is sobering notwithstanding the inherent volatility of the very high frequency ‘nowcast’ maintained by the Atlanta Fed,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz and president of Queens’ College Cambridge, said in a post on social media site X.

The gauge had pointed to GDP gains as high as 3.9% in early February but has been on a decline since then as additional data has come in.

On Friday, the Commerce Department reported that personal spending fell 0.2% in January, missing the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.1% increase. Adjusted for inflation, spending fell 0.5%. As a result, that shaved a full percentage point off the expected contribution to GDP, down to 1.3%, according to the GDPNow calculation.

At the same time, the contribution of net exports tumbled from -0.41 percentage point to -3.7 percentage points.

The combination of data and its impact on the growth outlook comes with surveys showing decreasing consumer confidence and worries about rising inflation. The Commerce Department also reported that an inflation measure the Fed favors moved lower during the month, as the core personal consumption expenditures price index fell to 2.6%, down 0.3 percentage point from December.

The week also brought some concerning news out of the labor market as initial unemployment claims hit a level that was last higher in early October.

In addition, the bond market also has been pricing in slower growth. The 3-month Treasury yield this week moved above the 10-year note, a historically reliable indicator of a recession at the 12- to 18-month horizon.

The economic and policy uncertainty has led to a bumpy start to the year for the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2% in 2025 amid wild fluctuations in a volatile news cycle.

“My sense is that the complacency that has crept into asset markets is about to be disrupted,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at RSM.

Markets increasingly believe the Fed will respond to the slowdown with multiple interest rate cuts this year. Traders in the fed funds futures market increased the odds of a quarter percentage point reduction in June to about 80% as of Friday afternoon and raised the possibility of three such cuts total this year.

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Germany’s economy chief Reiche sets out roadmap to end turmoil

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09 May 2025, Bavaria, Gmund Am Tegernsee: Katherina Reiche (CDU), Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, takes part in the Ludwig Erhard Summit. Representatives from business, politics, science and the media are taking part in the three-day summit. Photo: Sven Hoppe/dpa (Photo by Sven Hoppe/picture alliance via Getty Images)

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Germany needs to take more risks and boost its stagnant economy with a decade of investment in infrastructure, German Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Katherina Reiche said Friday.

“The next decade will be the decade of infrastructure investments in bridges, in energy infrastructure, in storage, in maritime infrastructure… telecommunication. And for this, we need speed. We need speed and investments, and we need private capital,” Reiche told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on the sidelines of the Tegernsee summit.

While 10% of investments could be taken care of with public money, the remaining 90% relied on the private sector, she said.

The newly minted economy minister also addressed regulation coming from Brussels, warning that it could hinder companies from investments and start-ups from growing if it is too restrictive. Germany has had to learn that investments comes with risks “and we have to kind of be open for taking more risks,” she said.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche

“This country needs an economic turnaround. After two years of recessions the previous government had to announce again [a] zero growth year for 2025 and we really have to work on this. So on the top of the agenda is an investor booster,” the minister added.

Lowering energy prices, stabilizing the security of energy supply and reducing bureaucracy were among the key points on the agenda, Reiche said.

Germany’s economy contracted slightly on an annual basis in both 2023 and 2024 and the quarterly gross domestic product has been flipping between growth and contraction for over two years now, just about managing to avoid a technical recession. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.2% expansion.

Forecasts do not suggest much of a reprieve from the sluggishness, with the now former German government last month saying it still expects the economy to stagnate this year.

This is despite a major fiscal U-turn announced earlier this year, which included changes to the country’s long-standing debt rules to allow for additional defense spending and a 500-billion-euro ($562.4 billion) infrastructure package.

Several of Germany’s key industries are under pressure. The auto industry for example is dealing with stark competition from China and now faces tariffs, while issues in housebuilding and infrastructure have been linked to higher costs and bureaucratic hurdles.

Trade is also a key pillar for the German economy and therefore uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s changing tariff policies are weighing heavily on the outlook.

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Andrew Bailey on why UK-U.S. trade deal won’t end uncertainty

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey attends the central bank’s Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in the City of London, on May 8, 2025.

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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told CNBC on Thursday that the U.K. was heading for more economic uncertainty, despite the country being the first to strike a trade agreement with the U.S. under President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff regime.

“The tariff and trade situation has injected more uncertainty into the situation… There’s more uncertainty now than there was in the past,” Bailey told CNBC in an interview.

“A U.K.-U.S. trade agreement is very welcome in that sense, very welcome. But the U.K. is a very open economy,” he continued.

That means that the impact from tariffs on the U.K. economy comes not just from its own trade relationship with Washington, but also from those of the U.S. and the rest of the world, he said.

“I hope that what we’re seeing on the U.K.-U.S. trade side will be the first of many, and it will be repeated by a whole series of trade agreements, but we have to see that happen of course, and where it actually ends up.”

“Because, of course, we are looking at tariff levels that are probably higher than they were beforehand.”

Trump unveils United Kingdom trade deal, first since ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause

In Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report released Thursday, the word “uncertainty” was used 41 times across its 97 pages, up from 36 times in February, according to a CNBC tally.

The U.K. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Thursday, taking its key rate to 4.25%. The decision was highly divided among the seven members of its Monetary Policy Committee, with five voting for the 25 basis point cut, two voting to hold rates and two voting to reduce by a larger 50 basis points.

Bailey said that while some analysts had perceived the rate decision as more hawkish than expected — in other words, leaning toward holding rates elevated than slashing them rapidly — he was not surprised by the close vote.

“What it reflects is that there are two sides, there are risks on both sides here,” he told CNBC.

“We could get a much more severe weakness of demand than we were expecting, that could then pass through to a weaker outlook for inflation than we were expecting.”

“There’s a risk on the other side that we could get some combination of more persistence in the inflation effects that are gradually working their way through the system,” such as in wages and energy, while “supply capacity in the economy is weaker,” he said.

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