U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) annual meeting in National Harbor, Maryland, U.S., February 22, 2025.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
U.S. importers and their customers are about to experience the full force of President Donald Trump’s unprecedented use of emergency economic powers.
To that point, 25% tariffs on imports from America’s top two trading partners, Canada and Mexico, went into effect at midnight Tuesday, as did an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Canadian energy will be tariffed at a lower rate of 10%, also as of midnight Tuesday.
It’s difficult to overstate how far-reaching the impact of these tariffs will be, or how quickly they will be felt.
U.S. trade with Mexico, Canada and China last year accounted for around 40% of America’s total commerce in goods around the world.
And unlike traditional trade policy, these tariffs are designed to deliver a financial sting right away, trade experts told CNBC.
“From a technical standpoint, the imposition of the tariffs is basically a light switch. They’re on or they’re off,” said Daniel Anthony, the president of Trade Partnership Worldwide, a policy research firm.
Literally overnight, the cost of importing, for example, $100,000 worth of limes from Mexico increased by $25,000 Tuesday. This is money that the importer will need to pay directly to U.S. Customs and Border Protection when the limes cross the border.
Even if a glitch prevented tariffs from being collected starting at exactly 12:01am Eastern Time Tuesday, they would still be tallied, and importers could expect to receive a tax bill retroactively, said Nicole Bivens Collinson, a Washington trade lobbyist and managing principal at Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg.
“It’s like when you get an Uber bill and you forgot to tip, and add it on later,” she said.
Along with the two new North American tariff rates, Trump also signed an order Monday doubling his earlier 10% tariff on imports from China, for a total 20% additional tariff rate on the nation.
Taken together, Canada, China and Mexico accounted for $2.2 trillion worth of U.S. overseas trade in 2024, according to federal census data. About $840 billion of that came from trade with Mexico, $762 billion from Canadian imports and exports and $582 billion from China.
Extraordinary power
Container at the Port of Vancouver in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, on Feb. 28, 2025.
Ethan Cairns/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Part of the reason Trump could do this so quickly is because the White House is invoking a sweeping national security law to justify the new levies.
Until now, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, IEEPA, had been used mainly to impose emergency sanctions on foreign dictators or suspected terrorist groups.
But the Trump administration argues that the illicit global fentanyl trade and immigrants at the Mexican border both qualify as “unusual and extraordinary” foreign threats to American national security, justifying Trump’s use of emergency powers under IEEPA.
Trump is using the law in a broader way than any president has before, Trade Partnership Worldwide’s Anthony explained.
Trump is also inviting legal challenges, he said, by pushing the boundaries of presidential authority.
For now, consumers will bear the brunt of the tariffs in higher prices, experts say. The Tax Policy Center estimates that Trump’s Mexico and Canada tariffs alone will cost the average household an additional $930 a year by 2026.
The imposition of massive new tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada, China and Mexico are a sharp reminder of how much power Trump wields over global commerce.
But they also hint at the limitations of this power.
In the case of so-called de-minimis shipments, the Trump administration imposed new levies on millions of shipments entering the United States, before the federal government had the means to actually collect the fees.
The de minimis mess
Oscar Wong | Moment | Getty Images
So-called “de minimis” imports are international shipments valued at $800 or less. Historically, these low-value, person-to-person imports have been exempt from U.S. tariffs.
Several of the world’s biggest e-commerce companies take advantage of the de-minimis loophole by shipping their products directly to consumers from overseas.
Fast fashion sites, like Temu and Shein, ship goods directly from China to American consumers. They have helped fuel an explosion in U.S.-bound de-minimis shipments in recent years.
But collecting tariffs on de-minimis goods is harder than it looks.
“There’s a whole infrastructure system set up for normal shipments that come in to the country,” said Collinson, who previously served as a U.S. trade negotiator. But this system doesn’t exist for de-minimis imports, she added.
Last year alone, the U.S. accepted more than 1.3 billion overseas shipments that qualified for de-minimis tariff exemptions, according to federal data.
To process that many new shipments, the federal government will need to hire more customs agents, experts said.
Nonetheless, in early February Trump announced that the United States would begin collecting tariffs on low-value shipments from overseas.
Trump’s order gave the U.S. Postal Service mere days to implement a system to begin collecting tariffs on millions of small packages every day.
It also sowed chaos throughout the international postal system, culminating on Feb. 4 with an announcement that USPS had suspended all parcel delivery services from China and Hong Kong “until further notice.”
A day later, the postal service reversed course and resumed processing the de-minimis parcels. But it did not collect any tariffs on them.
Soon after, the Trump administration issued an amendment to the China order, formally delaying any effort to collect tariffs on de-minimis imports until “adequate systems are in place to fully and expediently process and collect tariff revenue” on them.
The U.S. Postal Service didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
A month later, the White House put similar de-minimis waivers in place Sunday for Canada and Mexico, ahead of imposing the new 25% tariffs.
It’s unclear when a de-minimis tariff collection system might be up and running.
A U.S. Customs and Border Protection spokeswoman told CNBC, “The dynamic nature of our mission, along with evolving threats and challenges, requires CBP to remain flexible and adapt quickly while ensuring seamless operations and mission resilience.”
But Anthony noted that the delay for China was “open ended.”
“Part of the challenge is [federal] personnel and bandwidth,” he said. Customs and Border Protection may not have the staff or resources available to handle the new volume of shipments and packages, he said.
Officials must also determine how the levy will be assessed and paid, and how customs officials will process tens of millions of new data points furnished by shippers for each individual package, the experts said.
“Anyone can develop a good policy, but whether that policy can actually be effectuated is critical,” Collinson said.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, may be cut about 30% under the terms of the bill, which would be the “biggest cut in the program’s history,” according to Ty Jones Cox, vice president for food assistance policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, currently provides food assistance to more than 40 million individuals including children, seniors and adults with disabilities.
Yet cuts to the program proposed by the House — which would shrink the program’s funding by about $300 billion through 2034 — would put those benefits at risk.
“The House Republican plan would take away food assistance for millions who struggle to afford the high cost of groceries, including families with children and other vulnerable people with low incomes,” Cox said during a Tuesday webinar hosted by the CBPP, a progressive think tank.
The SNAP reform efforts come amid a broader effort to reduce waste and fraud in government programs. SNAP, like other government benefits, can be susceptible to improper or fraudulent payments.
The “one big, beautiful bill restores integrity to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., said in a May 14 statement, through “long-overdue accountability incentives to control costs and end executive and state overreach.”
Many Americans cite high food costs as a top economic concern, according to an April Pew Research Center survey. If new tariff policies are put into effect, that could prompt food prices to go higher.
Moreover, the proposed SNAP cuts come as some experts say the U.S. is facing higher recession risks. In previous downturns, every additional dollar spent on SNAP generates about $1.54 in returns to the economy, according to Elaine Waxman, senior fellow at the Urban Institute’s tax and income support division.
“People spend SNAP dollars right away, and they spend them locally,” Waxman said.
The proposed SNAP cuts would largely happen by expanding work requirements to qualify for benefits and by cutting federal funding for food benefits and administration and leaving it up to states to make up the difference.
Federal cuts would leave states with tough choices
The largest cut to SNAP would come from federal funding cuts to basic SNAP benefits ranging from 5% to 25% starting in 2028, according to CBPP.
It would then be up to states to find ways to make up for that benefit shortfall, which could include making it more difficult to enroll in the program or finding other localizedcuts to the program, according to CBPP.
“The change in the bill that is most dramatic is asking states to share part of the benefit cost,” Waxman said. “That’s new; since SNAP was originated, the federal government has always paid the full cost of the benefits.”
Notably, it would also mark the first time in the history of SNAP that the federal government would no longer ensure children in every state have access to food benefits, according to CBPP.
In addition, the proposal also seeks to make it so states pay a larger portion of the program’s administrative costs.
How states may react to the changes may vary. In worst-case scenarios, some states could even opt out of the program altogether, according to CBPP.
However, Waxman said most states will likely try to protect benefits because they’re “so critical,” even though they are not legally obligated to offer the program.
“The vast majority, if not all, will try to do something,” Waxman said.
In addition to the benefits SNAP provides to individuals and families, it also provides an “integral” part of economies, Waxman said. In lower-income rural areas, for example, rural grocery stores that rely on SNAP customers would see food spending go down.
“It has all these ripples that will hurt a lot of people other than just the people who are on the program,” Waxman said.
Work requirements may cost families $254 per month
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., at the House Democrats’ news conference on Medicaid and SNAP cuts proposed by the Republicans’ reconciliation process.
Bill Clark | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
Work requirements for SNAP already make it so certain individuals must work at least 80 hours per month to qualify for the program’s benefits. That includes individuals ages 18 to 54 who are able to work and who have no dependents.Current policy also limits SNAP benefits for certain individuals to three months within a 36-month period unless work requirements are met.
The proposed legislation would expand that those work requirements, according to the Urban Institute, by:
extending the requirements to households with children, unless they have a child under age seven;
expanding the work requirements and time limits to individuals ages 55 through 64;
limiting states’ flexibility to request waivers of the work requirement policies in high unemployment areas; and
reducing discretionary exemptions from the time limits that states may provide.
Expanded work requirements would affect 2.7 million families and 5.4 million individuals, according to a new report from the Urban Institute.
That includes 1.5 million families who would lose benefits entirely and 1.2 million families who would receive lower benefits. It also includes 1.8 million people, including 48,000 children, who would lose benefits entirely; and 3.6 million people, including 1.5 million children, who would receive lower benefits, according to the Urban Institute.
Families that lose some or all their benefits would lose $254 per month on average, according to the research. Meanwhile, families with children would lose $229 per month on average, the Urban Institute found.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at an event about the economy at the Circa Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., January 25, 2025.
Leah Millis | Reuters
The Senate on Tuesday unanimously passed the No Tax on Tips Act in a surprise vote, which could boost momentum for an idea floated by President Donald Trump during his 2024 campaign.
If enacted, the legislation would create a federal income tax deduction of up to $25,000 per year, with some limitations. The tax break applies to workers who typically receive cash tips reported to their employer for payroll tax withholdings, according to a summary of the bill.
To qualify for the deduction, there’s a $160,000 earnings limit for 2025. That limit would be indexed for inflation yearly.
Currently, workers who receive cash tips of $20 or more monthly must report those earnings to employers, according to the IRS. Cash tips can include funds received directly from customers, tip-sharing from other employees or tips paid via credit card.
Lawmaker support for a tax break on tip income
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both called for no tax on tips during appearances in Nevada.
The bill advanced by the House Ways and Means Committee last week also includes a no tax on tips provision. If enacted, workers could deduct all “qualified tips” from 2025 through 2028. Tips must be reported to qualify for the deduction. However, this could still change before the full House floor vote.
“Whether it passes free-standing or as part of the bigger bill, one way or another, no tax on tips is going to become law and give real relief to hard-working Americans,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas., said from the Senate floor on Tuesday.
Cruz introduced the bipartisan bill in January with Sens. Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto from Nevada.
Who benefits from no tax on tips
In 2023, there were roughly 4 million U.S. workers in tipped occupations, representing 2.5% of all employment, according to estimates from The Budget Lab at Yale University.
“This is a very narrow subset of the workforce,” said Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation.
Tipped occupations include jobs in restaurants and hotels, as well as courier services like taxis, rideshares and food delivery services, he said.
What’s more, a good chunk of tipped workers are part-time employees, and they wouldn’t see a significant benefit from a tip exemption, he said. Many such workers already don’t pay federal income tax because their earnings fall under the standard deduction.
“For the lowest income tipped workers, it provides no marginal benefit” Muresianu said. “It would benefit moderate to middle income workers substantially.”
Policy ‘clearly violates some principle of fairness’
A no tax on tips policy could create several issues, Muresianu said.
For example, there could be the introduction of tips in new occupations, or a shift in compensation in already tipped occupations toward a greater reliance on tips. It’s also possible that income could be misclassified as tips to take advantage of the tax benefit, he said.
“It’s tough to model or project because tipping is a social behavior, not strictly an economic transaction,” Muresianu said.
From a general economic standpoint, it doesn’t make sense to treat one type of income earned in specific industries differently than another type of income, he said. Take, for example, a waitress and a retail cashier: Both earn $35,000, but the waitress makes $10,000 in tips, which would be tax exempt.
“Why does the cashier pay full income tax on her income but the waitress gets a very substantial tax exemption?” he said. “That clearly violates some principle of fairness.”
A visitor waves an American flag near the U.S. Capitol, as the U.S. House of Representatives considers U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 19, 2025.
Nathan Howard | Reuters
A tax package House Republicans may pass as soon as this week would kill a slew of consumer tax breaks tied to clean energy, as currently drafted. If it becomes law, households interested in the tax breaks may have to rush to claim them this year, experts said.
The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, which made historic investments to combat climate change, created or enhanced those tax breaks.
Most would be terminated after 2025, about seven years earlier than under current law.
“Based on the existing proposed language, if you’ve been considering an EV or planning to get one, now is the time to do it,” Alexia Melendez Martineau, senior policy manager at Plug In America, wrote in an e-mail.
Termination of EV tax credits
Halfpoint Images | Moment | Getty Images
Consumers who buy a new EV can claim a tax break worth up to $7,500. One for used EVs is worth up to $4,000. Car dealers can also pass along a $7,500 credit to consumers who lease an electric vehicle.
The House tax proposal would terminate these tax credits after 2025. The Inflation Reduction Act made them available through 2032.
A “special rule” would keep the $7,500 credit in place for some new EVs for an additional year, through 2026. However, it would only be available for new vehicles from automakers that haven’t yet sold 200,000 EVs. That would disqualify EVs from companies like General Motors (GM), Tesla (TSLA) and Toyota (TM).
About 7.5% of all new-vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2025 were EVs, an increase from 7% a year earlier, according to Cox Automotive. Tax credits for EVs have been available in some form since 2008, when George W. Bush approved them.
The Inflation Reduction Act made it easier for consumers to access the EV credit, by allowing dealers to issue the tax break to consumers upfront at the point of sale instead of waiting until tax season. Consumers who buy an EV in the near term would be wise to pick this option, experts said.
“We recommend taking the upfront rebate at the dealership, as it reduces the price you pay now and shifts liability to the dealer to manage getting the credit from the IRS,” Martineau said.
Axing home efficiency tax credits
Owngarden | Moment | Getty Images
House Republicans also aim to axe various tax breaks tied to making existing homes more energy-efficient.
These breaks defray the cost of projects like installing insulation, solar panels, heat pumps, and installing energy-efficient windows and doors, for example.
One — the energy efficient home improvement credit, also known as the 25C credit — is worth up to 30% of the cost of a qualifying project. Taxpayers can claim up to $3,200 per year on their tax returns, with the overall dollar amount tied to specific projects.
Another — the residential clean energy credit, or the 25D credit — is also worth 30% of qualifying project costs. It doesn’t have an annual or lifetime dollar, except for certain limits on fuel cells, according to the IRS.
They are currently available through 2032. (The 25D credit phases down to 26% for installations in 2033 and 22% for those in 2034.)
Both tax credits would be repealed after 2025 under the House bill.
The 25C and 25D credits have been available in some form since 1978 and 2005, respectively, according to economists at the Haas Energy Institute at the University of California, Berkeley.
More than 3.4 million U.S. households claimed one of the credits in 2023, receiving more than $8 billion, according to the Treasury Department.
Experts recommend that consumers considering a home-efficiency project have it completed by year’s end to be able to claim a tax credit.
“If a homeowner was looking to take advantage of the 25C tax credit, under what is being proposed [by the House] they’d need to ensure their system was put in service this year,” said Kara Saul Rinaldi, president and CEO of AnnDyl Policy Group, an energy and environmental policy strategy firm.
The House tax bill may change
Republicans are eyeing the climate tax breaks as a way to raise money for a sprawling package that also extends measures from President Trump’s 2017 tax law and cuts taxes on overtime and tips, for example.
The House tax plan’s repeal or modification of clean energy credits — including those for EVs and home efficiency — would raise $707 billion over a decade, according to an analysis published Monday by the Penn Wharton Budget Model.
As drafted, the overall House bill would raise the U.S. deficit by a net $3.3 trillion over a decade, after accounting for spending cuts, Penn Wharton said.
The Senate also needs to pass the measure before it heads to the president’s desk.
“Republicans are far from united, with deficit hawks pushing for greater deficit reduction, centrists objecting to steep welfare cuts and blue-state Republicans fighting for bigger State and Local Tax (SALT) exemptions,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note on Tuesday.