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The pivotal February jobs report is out Friday. Here’s what to expect

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People walk past digital billboards at the Moynihan Train Hall displaying a new initiative from New York Governor Kathy Hochul titled ‘New York Wants You’, a program designed to recruit and employ displaced federal workers across New York State, in New York, U.S., March 3, 2025. 

David Dee Delgado | Reuters

Mixed signals lately from the labor market are adding to angst for investors already on a knife’s edge over the potential threat that tariffs pose to inflation and economic growth.

Depending on the perspective, employers either are cutting workers at the highest rate in years or skating by with current staffing levels.

What has become clear is that workers are increasingly uncertain of their employment status and less prone to seek other opportunities, at the same time as job hunters are reporting it harder to find new positions, according to several recent surveys.

The sentiment indicators counter otherwise solid numbers showing up in more traditional data points like nonfarm payrolls growth and the jobless rate, which is still at a level historically associated with full employment and a bustling labor market.

Sound fundamentals

“Fundamentally speaking, things are still relatively sound in the United States. That doesn’t mean there are no cracks,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “You can just whistle past that and just hang your hat on the payrolls report, or recognize that the payrolls report is a lagging indicator and some of those other indicators that give you a better flavor of what’s happening under the surface are looking softer by comparison.”

Markets will get another snapshot of labor market health when the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its February nonfarm payrolls report Friday at 8:30 ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect growth of 170,000 jobs, up from 143,000 in January, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%.

While that represents a stable labor market, there are a number of caveats that point to more difficult times ahead.

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that layoff announcements from companies soared in February to their highest monthly level since July 2020. A big reason for that move was the effort by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to cull the federal workforce. Challenger reported more than 62,000 DOGE-related cuts.

DOGE actions as well as other labor survey indicators showing worker angst likely won’t be reflected in Friday’s jobs number, primarily due to the timing of the cuts and the methodology the BLS uses in its twin counts of household employment and jobs filled at the establishment level.

Consumer confidence drop

But a recent Conference Board report showed an unexpectedly large drop in consumer confidence that coincided with a spike in respondents expecting fewer jobs to be available as well as harder to get. Similarly, a University of Michigan’s survey saw a slide as respondents worried about inflation.

In the world of economics, such fears can quickly become self-fulfilling prophecy.

“If workers don’t feel confident that they’re going to be able to find a new job … then that’s going to be reflected in the economy, and the same in terms for how willing employers are to hire,” said Allison Shrivastava, economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “Don’t ever discount sentiment.”

In recent days, economists have been ramping up the potential impact for DOGE cuts, with some saying that multiplier effects involving government contractors could take the total labor force reduction to half a million or more.

“They’re going to have some trouble being reabsorbed into the economy,” Shrivastava said. “It also does shake people’s confidence and sentiment, which can certainly impact the actual economy.”

For now, Goldman Sachs said the DOGE cuts probably will lower the headline payrolls number by just 10,000 or so and exepcts weather-related impacts to be small. Overall, the bank said the current picture, according to alternative figures, is one of “a firm pace of job creation, and we expect continued, albeit moderating, contributions from catch-up hiring and the recent surge in immigration.”

In addition to the employment numbers, the BLS will release figures on pay growth. Average hourly earnings are expected to show a 0.3% monthly gain, up 4.2% from a year ago and about 0.1 percentage point above the January level.

Economics

The judge losing his patience with the Trump administration

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DONALD TRUMP likes picking fights with judges. In 2016 Mr Trump said a judge’s Mexican heritage rendered him incapable of fairly adjudicating fraud cases against Trump University, a for-profit institution that closed in 2011. Two years later the president condemned a ruling against his immigration policies as a “disgrace”. Lawsuits against him during the Biden years—including one for conspiring to steal the 2020 election—spurred many attacks.

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Jobs report April 2025:

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Job growth was stronger than expected in April despite worries over the impact of President Donald Trump’s blanket tariffs against U.S. trading partners.

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 177,000 for the month, slightly below the downwardly revised 185,000 in March but above the Dow Jones estimate for 133,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The unemployment rate, however, held at 4.2%, as expected., indicating that the labor market is holding relatively stable.

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Euro zone inflation, April 2025

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Shoppers buy fresh vegetables, fruit, and herbs at an outdoor produce market under green-striped canopies in Regensburg, Upper Palatinate, Bavaria, Germany, on April 19, 2025.

Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Euro zone inflation was unchanged at 2.2% in April, missing expectations for a move lower, flash data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters had been expecting the reading to come in at 2.1% in April compared to March’s 2.2% as inflation has been easing back towards the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, accelerated to 2.7% from March’s 2.4%. The closely-watched services inflation print also picked up again, coming in at 3.9% compared to the previous 3.5% reading.

The increase in services inflation was likely “driven mainly by Easter timing effects,” Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. These effects would reverse in the coming month, she added, suggesting that this left the door open for further interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

“We think the services rate will decline significantly in the rest of this year as US tariffs weigh on activity and the labour market continues to weaken,” Palmas added.

ECB President Christine Lagarde told CNBC last week that “we’re heading towards our [inflation] target in the course of 2025, so that disinflationary process is so much on track that we are nearing completion.”

Lagarde and other policymakers last week warned the picture for inflation was less clear in the medium-term, with factors such as potential retaliation countermeasures from Europe against U.S. tariffs and fiscal shifts like Germany’s major infrastructure package coming into play.

Lagarde said the ECB would be “data dependent to the extreme,” when making interest rate decisions. The central bank last cut interest rates last month, taking its key rate — the deposit facility rate — to 2.25%, down from highs of 4% in mid-2023.

An interest cut in June seems appropriate amid many deflationary forces, ECB governing council member says

Several major euro zone economies had already earlier in the week released their latest inflation figures, which are harmonized for comparability across the bloc. Germany’s statistics office said Wednesday it expects consumer prices to have risen by 2.2% in April, below the previous month’s reading but slightly higher than expected. Meanwhile French harmonized inflation came in at 0.8%, also slightly ahead of expectations.

Data released earlier this week indicated that the euro zone economy could be picking up steam, with the bloc’s gross domestic product rising 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025, according to a preliminary reading. This was higher than the forecast of 0.2%, and followed a revised 0.2% growth print in the last quarter of 2024.

Growth is however widely expected to slow in the coming months due to the global tariff fallout.

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