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The pivotal February jobs report is out Friday. Here’s what to expect

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People walk past digital billboards at the Moynihan Train Hall displaying a new initiative from New York Governor Kathy Hochul titled ‘New York Wants You’, a program designed to recruit and employ displaced federal workers across New York State, in New York, U.S., March 3, 2025. 

David Dee Delgado | Reuters

Mixed signals lately from the labor market are adding to angst for investors already on a knife’s edge over the potential threat that tariffs pose to inflation and economic growth.

Depending on the perspective, employers either are cutting workers at the highest rate in years or skating by with current staffing levels.

What has become clear is that workers are increasingly uncertain of their employment status and less prone to seek other opportunities, at the same time as job hunters are reporting it harder to find new positions, according to several recent surveys.

The sentiment indicators counter otherwise solid numbers showing up in more traditional data points like nonfarm payrolls growth and the jobless rate, which is still at a level historically associated with full employment and a bustling labor market.

Sound fundamentals

“Fundamentally speaking, things are still relatively sound in the United States. That doesn’t mean there are no cracks,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “You can just whistle past that and just hang your hat on the payrolls report, or recognize that the payrolls report is a lagging indicator and some of those other indicators that give you a better flavor of what’s happening under the surface are looking softer by comparison.”

Markets will get another snapshot of labor market health when the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its February nonfarm payrolls report Friday at 8:30 ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect growth of 170,000 jobs, up from 143,000 in January, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%.

While that represents a stable labor market, there are a number of caveats that point to more difficult times ahead.

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that layoff announcements from companies soared in February to their highest monthly level since July 2020. A big reason for that move was the effort by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to cull the federal workforce. Challenger reported more than 62,000 DOGE-related cuts.

DOGE actions as well as other labor survey indicators showing worker angst likely won’t be reflected in Friday’s jobs number, primarily due to the timing of the cuts and the methodology the BLS uses in its twin counts of household employment and jobs filled at the establishment level.

Consumer confidence drop

But a recent Conference Board report showed an unexpectedly large drop in consumer confidence that coincided with a spike in respondents expecting fewer jobs to be available as well as harder to get. Similarly, a University of Michigan’s survey saw a slide as respondents worried about inflation.

In the world of economics, such fears can quickly become self-fulfilling prophecy.

“If workers don’t feel confident that they’re going to be able to find a new job … then that’s going to be reflected in the economy, and the same in terms for how willing employers are to hire,” said Allison Shrivastava, economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “Don’t ever discount sentiment.”

In recent days, economists have been ramping up the potential impact for DOGE cuts, with some saying that multiplier effects involving government contractors could take the total labor force reduction to half a million or more.

“They’re going to have some trouble being reabsorbed into the economy,” Shrivastava said. “It also does shake people’s confidence and sentiment, which can certainly impact the actual economy.”

For now, Goldman Sachs said the DOGE cuts probably will lower the headline payrolls number by just 10,000 or so and exepcts weather-related impacts to be small. Overall, the bank said the current picture, according to alternative figures, is one of “a firm pace of job creation, and we expect continued, albeit moderating, contributions from catch-up hiring and the recent surge in immigration.”

In addition to the employment numbers, the BLS will release figures on pay growth. Average hourly earnings are expected to show a 0.3% monthly gain, up 4.2% from a year ago and about 0.1 percentage point above the January level.

Economics

Trump greenlights Nippon merger with US Steel

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A tugboat pushes a barge near the U.S. Steel Corp. Clairton Coke Works facility in Clairton, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 9, 2024.

Justin Merriman | Bloomberg | Getty Images

President Donald Trump said Friday that U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel will form a “partnership,” after the Japanese steelmaker’s bid to acquire its U.S. rival had been blocked on national security grounds.

“This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.

U.S. Steel’s headquarters will remain in Pittsburgh and the bulk of the investment will take place over the next 14 months, the president said. U.S. Steel shares jumped more than 24%.

President Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel from purchasing U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion in January, citing national security concerns. Biden said at the time that the acquisition would create a risk to supply chains that are critical for the U.S.

Trump, however, ordered a new review of the proposed acquisition in April, directing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to determine “whether further action in this matter may be appropriate.”

This is breaking news. Please refresh for updates.

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Economics

A court resurrects the United States Institute of Peace

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The night the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) was taken over, March 17th, staffers from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) walked round its headquarters smoking cigars and drinking beers while they dismantled the signage and disabled the computer systems. The takeover of the USIP building in Washington, DC, earlier that afternoon was one of the more notable moments of President Donald Trump’s revolution in the capital, because the think-tank is not actually part of the executive branch. The Institute’s board and president, George Moose, a veteran diplomat, were summarily fired. He and other senior staff were ultimately forced out of the building at the behest of three different police agencies. Then a DOGE staffer handed over the keys to the building to the federal government.

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Economics

How much worse could America’s measles outbreak get?

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AMERICA’S MEASLES outbreak is alarming for several reasons. What began as a handful of cases in Texas in January has now surpassed 800 across several states, with many more cases probably going unreported. It is the worst outbreak in 30 years and has already killed three people. Other smaller outbreaks bring the total number of cases recorded in 2025 so far to over 1,000. But above all, public-health experts worry that the situation now is a sign of worse to come. Falling vaccination rates and cuts to public-health services could make such outbreaks more frequent and impossible to curb, eventually making measles endemic in the country again.

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