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The U.S. job market is stagnant right now

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Rudi_suardi | E+ | Getty Images

The U.S. job market has been stagnant of late, a dynamic that contains both good and bad news for U.S. workers.

On the one hand, businesses are holding on to their existing workforce, meaning employees are unlikely to lose their jobs, economists said. But it also may be hard for jobseekers to land a new gig as employers pull back on hiring, economists said.

It’s a “low-hire, low-fire environment,” Bank of America economists wrote in a research note Friday.

“The labor market is currently characterized by a lack of churn: soft hiring and low layoffs,” they said.

That news may be disappointing for many workers: About half, or 51%, of U.S. employees were seeking a new job as of Nov. 1, the highest share since 2015, according to a Gallup poll published Tuesday. Overall job satisfaction has dipped to a record low, it found.

The ‘great resignation’ became the ‘great stay’

By many metrics, the job market is strong for American workers.

The unemployment rate — which was 4.2% in November — is near historical lows dating to the late 1940s. The layoff rate in October was also at its lowest since the early 2000s, when record keeping began, and has hardly budged since 2021.

However, employer hiring in October was sluggish: The hiring rate was at its lowest since 2013. The average duration of unemployment ticked up to 23.7 weeks in November, from 19.5 weeks a year earlier.  

The current lack of dynamism in the job market represents whiplash for many workers, said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

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Workers quit their jobs at a torrid pace in 2021 and 2022, as the U.S. economy awoke from its pandemic-era hibernation. Job openings ballooned to record highs and businesses competed for labor by raising wages at the fastest clip in decades, incentivizing workers to leave their gigs for better opportunities.

This era, dubbed the “great resignation,” has been replaced by the “great stay,” Pollak said.

This is due to a variety of factors, labor economists said.

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Many businesses were scarred by their recent experience of holding onto workers amid fierce labor competition and have reacted by “labor hoarding,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at the job site Indeed.

Employers have shifted their policies more toward retention and away from recruiting, Pollak said.

The labor market has also gradually cooled.

The U.S. Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs aggressively starting in 2022 to slow the economy and tame inflation, which applied the brakes on the job market. The central bank started cutting interest rates in September, as inflation declined significantly and the labor market flashed some warning signals.

A ‘diverging’ labor market

While strong in the aggregate, the job market is “diverging” for workers, Stahle said.

Overall job growth has been “robust” but the bulk of job gains are occurring in a handful of industries like health care, government, and leisure and hospitality, Stahle said.

Meanwhile, job growth in white-collar fields like software development, marketing, and media and communications “has been very, very slow,” he said. “Right now your experience with the labor market will depend on the type of job you’re doing,” he said.

Hiring may bounce back if the Fed continues to cut interest rates, as employers may be more inclined to invest more in their businesses if borrowing costs are lower, economists said.

In the meantime, “things are going to be a little more competitive than they were a couple years ago,” Stahle said.

Job seekers should be sure to align their resumes with the skills that employers list on job posts, especially since many businesses use “applicant tracking systems” to automatically screen applications, he said.

“People who really want out [of their job] may need to widen their search, expand their parameters, and get a bit uncomfortable and reskill,” Pollak said.

But those with jobs they really like “have unprecedented job security,” she said.

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Student loan should take these steps amid risks to Education Department

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Students walk through the University of Texas at Austin on February 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas. 

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Gather student loan records ASAP

If the Trump administration is successful in dismantling key parts of the Education Department, the Treasury Department would be the next most logical agency to administer student debt, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

It’s also possible that the Justice Department or the Department of Labor could carry out some of the Education Department’s functions, according to a December blog post by The National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators.

But the transfer of tens of millions of borrowers’ account information between agencies would likely lead to errors, experts said. As a result, borrowers should gather the latest information on their student loan balance now, and keep an updated record of it, Yu said.

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At Studentaid.gov, borrowers should be able to access data on their student loan balance and payment progress, Yu said. If you don’t know which company services your student debt, you can find that information on that site, as well.

Borrowers should also request a complete payment history of their student loans if their debt has been transferred between companies in the past, Yu said. All this documentation will come in handy if your loan balance or payment history is reported inaccurately in the future.

Those who are pursuing Public Service Loan Forgiveness should certify their work history with the Education Department now, Yu said, “to ensure all eligible periods of employment count toward PSLF.”(PSLF offers debt erasure for certain public servants after 10 years of payments, and borrowers have already long complained of inaccurate payment counts.)

Protecting your student loan data

Consumer and privacy advocates are also concerned by recent reports that Musk’s DOGE had entered the Department of Education and gained access to federal student loan data on tens of millions of borrowers.

In a Feb. 6 letter signed by 16 Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Chuck Schumer of New York, the lawmakers said that the Education Department’s student loan database “contains millions of borrowers’ highly sensitive information, including Social Security numbers, marital status, and income data.”

That data “could be used to target financially vulnerable people for Musk’s upcoming financial services company, could be easily breached, or abused in any number of ways,” said Ben Winters, the director of artificial intelligence and privacy at the Consumer Federation of America.

A federal judge in Maryland on Monday granted a temporary restraining order barring DOGE staffers from accessing individuals’ sensitive data at the Education Department until March 10 while a lawsuit unfolds.

Unfortunately, “it’s nearly impossible to track a specific source of data, including how it’s leaked or used or sold,” Winters said. With that being said, people can check if certain information was included in a data breach on websites like, haveibeenpwned.com, he said.

Some services manage your online presence to try to limit where your data ends up, such as one offered by Discover, Winters said. Monitoring your credit score each month to ensure no unauthorized accounts have been opened in your name can also be useful, he added.

“Also carefully scan your card and account statements periodically,” Winters said.

If you’re worried about how your personal data with the Education Department may have been used, you can make a complaint with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau at consumerfinance.gov/complaint. You may also report it to your state’s attorney general.

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Why single-family rents have grown faster than those for multifamily buildings

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Oscar Wong | Moment | Getty Images

Renters looking for a better deal may need to rethink the kind of properties they’re focused on in their search. 

As of January, median single-family home rent prices are up about 41% since before the pandemic, according to a recent report by Zillow. Meanwhile, multi-family rents are up 26% in the same timeframe.

A construction boom of multi-family buildings helped rein in rent prices for apartment units in the U.S., prompting some economists to dub 2025 as a “renter’s market.”

But single-family rentals did not see that same level of construction, keeping the available supply low.  Single-family rent growth also remains strong amid high demand, as high mortgage rates keep would-be buyers out of the for-sale market, Zillow noted in the report.

Multi-family housing often includes many units or separated dwellings within the same building, whereas a single-family rental is often in the form of a detached house.

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The typical asking rent price for a single-family home in January was $2,179, up 0.3% from a month prior, and up 4.4% from a year ago, Zillow found. Meanwhile, the typical asking rent for a property in a multifamily home was $1,820, up 0.2% from a month ago and up 2.7% from a year prior.

The gap between the costs to rent a single-family home versus a unit in a multi-family apartment is the largest difference Zillow has recorded since it began tracking the metrics in 2015.

But while there’s a lack of single-family rentals compared to multi-family properties, “demographics play a huge role here,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

If you can’t afford to buy a home yet, but need the space, here’s what the high cost of single-family rental housing means for you. 

‘Renters are stuck renting for longer’

The millennial generation — those born between 1981 and 1996 — has had a tough time getting into homeownership.

The typical first-time homebuyer in the U.S. is now 38 years old, an all-time high, according to a 2024 report by NAR.

“Renters are stuck renting for longer,” said Orphe Divounguy, an economist at Zillow. 

This means many people are staying renters for longer. Zillow found in a separate 2024 report that the median age of renters in the U.S. is 42, and millennials make up about 31% of renters in the U.S. In Zillow’s analysis, millennials were those age 30 to 44 at the time of the survey.

As homeownership has become “so unaffordable and out of reach,” the cohort has had to find bigger rental properties to accommodate major life changes, such as getting married, and having kids or pets.

Bad housing starts in January due to weather, says Zillow's Orphe Divounguy

The appeal of single-family rentals, experts say, is a homeownership experience without the same costs. That can be meaningful for buyers who are faced with affordability challenges in the for-sale market. Coming up with the down payment can be a hurdle, as well as navigating volatile mortgage rates and rising home prices.

The median sale price for homes nationwide was $375,475 in the four weeks ending February 16, up 3.7% from a year prior, according to Redfin.

Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage inched down to 6.87% the week ending Feb. 13, per Freddie Mac data. That’s the lowest so far in the year, and down from the latest peak of 7.04% in January.

What to do in the meantime

Factors like “having a strong income, strong credit score and lower debt-to-income ratios” are essential for renters in looking into single-family rental homes, Divounguy said.

Paying down debt can help improve your debt-to-income ratio, which measures your debt repayment obligations relative to your income.

When landlords look at your financials, it helps them gauge how easily you can afford the rent based on your current income.

This measure is even more important for renters looking into single-family rental properties, Divounguy said. If you plan to buy a home in the future, keeping this in check will increase your chances of having an approved mortgage application.

Overall, stay on top of your bills and make sure to keep tabs of your credit reports from the major bureaus to ensure there are no errors that could be problematic when you apply. Having a solid credit history makes you more competitive as a renter, and it can also set you up for success if you ever look at the for-sale market, experts say. 

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Here’s what upcoming budget negotiations may mean for Social Security

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Richard Stephen | Istock | Getty Images

As lawmakers in Washington, D.C., work to rein in government spending, some advocates and consumers are concerned that Social Security could see cuts.

Congress faces a March 14 deadline to extend funding for the federal government in order to avoid a government shutdown. Meanwhile, the Trump administration had hoped to slash $2 trillion in government spending.

Because Social Security accounts for 21% of the budget, or $1.5 trillion in spending in 2024, there are concerns that the program could be a target.

Here’s what experts are keeping a watchful eye on with regard to Social Security in the upcoming negotiations.

Benefit cuts are off the table in budget reconciliation

Last year, the Republican Study Committee, a large group of House Republicans, released a budget proposal to cut federal spending by $17.1 trillion over 10 years.

That included a proposal to raise the Social Security retirement age to 69. Currently, retirees are eligible for the full benefits they’ve earned at age 66 to 67, depending on their date of birth.

With that change, anyone born after 1971 would see their benefit cuts an average of 13%, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Importantly, no changes can be made to Social Security benefits in upcoming budget reconciliation legislation, due to the Byrd Rule. That law prevents the addition of extraneous provisions, according to Maria Freese, senior legislative representative at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.

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But a proposal to raise the retirement age came up during last-minute Senate negotiations over the Social Security Fairness Act in December, and could come up again, experts say.

“Any opportunity that they [Congress] have, I could see it coming up,” Freese said. “They just can’t put it in reconciliation.”

For his part, President Donald Trump said he is opposed to cutting Social Security, except for any waste, fraud or abuse of the program.

Underfunding agency would hurt customer service

Without additional funding, it may take the agency more time to implement the Social Security Fairness Act, a new law that provides benefit increases to more than 3 million beneficiaries, experts have said.

“Congress has consistently and repeatedly underfunded that agency,” Freese said.

That has left the agency more susceptible to criticism, particularly with recent scrutiny of beneficiaries over age 100, she said.

“Part of what is among the first things to go are upgrades to computer systems and things that are considered non essential,” Freese added.

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