Personal Finance
The U.S. job market is stagnant right now
Rudi_suardi | E+ | Getty Images
The U.S. job market has been stagnant of late, a dynamic that contains both good and bad news for U.S. workers.
On the one hand, businesses are holding on to their existing workforce, meaning employees are unlikely to lose their jobs, economists said. But it also may be hard for jobseekers to land a new gig as employers pull back on hiring, economists said.
It’s a “low-hire, low-fire environment,” Bank of America economists wrote in a research note Friday.
“The labor market is currently characterized by a lack of churn: soft hiring and low layoffs,” they said.
That news may be disappointing for many workers: About half, or 51%, of U.S. employees were seeking a new job as of Nov. 1, the highest share since 2015, according to a Gallup poll published Tuesday. Overall job satisfaction has dipped to a record low, it found.
The ‘great resignation’ became the ‘great stay’
By many metrics, the job market is strong for American workers.
The unemployment rate — which was 4.2% in November — is near historical lows dating to the late 1940s. The layoff rate in October was also at its lowest since the early 2000s, when record keeping began, and has hardly budged since 2021.
However, employer hiring in October was sluggish: The hiring rate was at its lowest since 2013. The average duration of unemployment ticked up to 23.7 weeks in November, from 19.5 weeks a year earlier.
The current lack of dynamism in the job market represents whiplash for many workers, said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.
Workers quit their jobs at a torrid pace in 2021 and 2022, as the U.S. economy awoke from its pandemic-era hibernation. Job openings ballooned to record highs and businesses competed for labor by raising wages at the fastest clip in decades, incentivizing workers to leave their gigs for better opportunities.
This era, dubbed the “great resignation,” has been replaced by the “great stay,” Pollak said.
This is due to a variety of factors, labor economists said.
More from Personal Finance:
Fed slashed interest rates but some credit card APRs aren’t falling
Retail returns: An $890 billion problem
What to know before taking your first RMD
Many businesses were scarred by their recent experience of holding onto workers amid fierce labor competition and have reacted by “labor hoarding,” said Cory Stahle, an economist at the job site Indeed.
Employers have shifted their policies more toward retention and away from recruiting, Pollak said.
The labor market has also gradually cooled.
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs aggressively starting in 2022 to slow the economy and tame inflation, which applied the brakes on the job market. The central bank started cutting interest rates in September, as inflation declined significantly and the labor market flashed some warning signals.
A ‘diverging’ labor market
While strong in the aggregate, the job market is “diverging” for workers, Stahle said.
Overall job growth has been “robust” but the bulk of job gains are occurring in a handful of industries like health care, government, and leisure and hospitality, Stahle said.
Meanwhile, job growth in white-collar fields like software development, marketing, and media and communications “has been very, very slow,” he said. “Right now your experience with the labor market will depend on the type of job you’re doing,” he said.
Hiring may bounce back if the Fed continues to cut interest rates, as employers may be more inclined to invest more in their businesses if borrowing costs are lower, economists said.
In the meantime, “things are going to be a little more competitive than they were a couple years ago,” Stahle said.
Job seekers should be sure to align their resumes with the skills that employers list on job posts, especially since many businesses use “applicant tracking systems” to automatically screen applications, he said.
“People who really want out [of their job] may need to widen their search, expand their parameters, and get a bit uncomfortable and reskill,” Pollak said.
But those with jobs they really like “have unprecedented job security,” she said.
franckreporter | Getty Images
Nearly 2 million federal student loan borrowers who’ve requested to be in an affordable repayment plan are stuck in a backlog of applications, waiting to be approved or denied, according to new data recently shared by the U.S. Department of Education.
The Education Department disclosed the information in a May 15 court filing in response to a legal challenge lodged by the American Federation of Teachers. The teachers’ union sued the Trump administration in March for shutting down access to income-driven repayment plan applications on the Education Department’s website.
IDR plans cap borrowers’ monthly bills at a share of their discretionary income with the aim of making their payments manageable.
More from Personal Finance:
House Republican bill calls for bigger child tax credit
Student loan borrowers in default may see 15% of Social Security benefit garnished
How college savers can manage 529 plans in a turbulent market
In late March, the Trump administration made the online applications available again, and said that it pulled the forms because it needed to make sure all repayment plans complied with a court order that blocked the Biden administration’s new IDR plan, known as SAVE, or the Saving on a Valuable Education plan.
Trump officials argued that the ruling had broader implications for other IDR plans, and it ended up removing the loan forgiveness component under some of the options.
The backlog complicates things for borrowers as the Trump administration restarts collection activity. The Education Department estimates that nearly 10 million people could be in default on their student loans within months.
Without access to an affordable repayment plan, student loan borrowers can be suspended on their timeline to loan forgiveness and at risk of falling behind and facing collection activity.
‘The opposite of government efficiency’
In the May court document, the Education Department disclosed that more than 1.98 million IDR applications remained pending as of the end of April. Only roughly 79,000 requests had been approved or denied during that month.
Consumer advocates slammed the findings.
“This filing confirms what borrowers have known for months: Their applications for loan relief have effectively been going into a void,” said Winston Berkman-Breen, legal director at the Student Borrower Protection Center.
The Center said that if the Education Department continued to move at its current rate, it would take more than two years to process the existing applications.
AFT President Randi Weingarten called the backlog “outrageous and unacceptable.”
“This is the opposite of government efficiency,” Weingarten said. “Millions of borrowers are being denied their legal right to an affordable repayment option.”
What’s behind the backlog
A spokesperson for the Education Dept. blamed the backlog on the Biden administration, saying that it “failed to process income-driven repayment applications for borrowers, artificially masking rising delinquency and default rates and promising illegal student loan forgiveness to win points with voters.”
“The Trump Administration is actively working with federal student loan servicers and hopes to clear the Biden backlog over the next few months,” they said.
The Biden administration put the student loan borrowers who’d enrolled in its new IDR plan, SAVE, into an interest-free forbearance while the GOP-led legal challenges to the program unfolded. Many of the currently pending IDR requests are likely from borrowers who are trying to leave that blocked plan to get into an available one.
Sarah Sattlemeyer, a project director at New America and senior advisor under the Biden administration, said that the current backlog began last year “and has existed across both the Biden and Trump administrations” as a result of the legal battle over the SAVE plan.
“It is a demonstration of how complicated the loan system is, how much uncertainty there has been over the last few years and what is at stake,” Sattlemeyer said. “There also isn’t clarity around how some applications in the backlog should or will be handled, such as those where a borrower chose an option that no longer exists on the application.”
In recent months, the Trump administration has terminated around half of the Education Department’s staff, including many of the people who helped assist borrowers.
That is also likely one reason why so many of the applications haven’t been processed, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
“Perhaps the reduction in staff is affecting their ability to process the forms,” Kantrowitz said.
The Trump administration’s resumption of collection efforts on defaulted federal student loans has far-reaching consequences for delinquent borrowers.
For starters, borrowers who are in default may have wages, tax returns and Social Security payments garnished.
But involuntary collections could also have a “spillover effect,” which puts consumers at risk of falling behind on other debt repayments, according to a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
As collection activity restarts, disposable income falls
“We were obviously somewhat concerned about potential spillovers to delinquencies on other types of debt,” the New York Fed researchers said on a press call earlier this month.
“During the period where people were not required to make payments on their student loans, they could have used that money to pay their credit card bills and auto loans,” the researchers said. “Now they have to make these payments again on their student loans, so that could put pressure on their ability to pay these other loans.”
More from Personal Finance:
Wage garnishment for defaulted student loans to begin
What loan forgiveness opportunities remain under Trump
Is college still worth it? It is for most, but not all
The U.S. Department of Education’s crack down on student loan repayments could take billions of dollars out of consumers’ pockets, reports show. Monthly collections on defaulted loans may reduce disposable personal income between $3.1 billion to $8.5 billion a month, according to research by JPMorgan.
“Part of the reason that some people are adding to credit card debt is because they have student loan payments — that’s the spillover effect,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. “Something’s got to give.”
‘It’s just money that can’t go to other financial things’
Until earlier this month, the Department of Education had not collected on defaulted student loans since March 2020. After the Covid pandemic-era pause on federal student loan payments expired in September 2023, the Biden administration offered borrowers another year in which they would be shielded from the impacts of missed payments. That on-ramp officially ended on Sept. 30, 2024, and the Education Department restarted collection efforts on defaulted student loans on May 5.
Whether borrowers face garnishment, or opt to resume payments to get current on their loan, that’s likely to have a significant impact on their wallet.
“It’s just money that can’t go to other financial things,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.
After the five-year pause ended and collections are resumed, the delinquency rate for student loan balances spiked, the New York Fed found. Nearly 8% of total student debt was reported as 90 days past due in the first quarter of 2025, compared to less than 1% in the previous quarter.
Currently, around 42 million Americans hold federal student loans and roughly 5.3 million borrowers are in default, according to the Education Department. Another 4 million borrowers are in “late-stage delinquency,” or over 90 days past due on payments.
Among borrowers who are now required to make payments — not including those who are in deferment or forbearance or are currently enrolled in school — nearly one in four student loan borrowers are behind in their payments, the New York Fed found.
As borrowers transition out of forbearance and into repayment, those borrowers may also face challenges making payments, according to a separate research note by Bank of America. “This transition will likely drive delinquencies and defaults on student loans higher and could have further knock-on effects for consumer finance companies,” Bank of America analyst Mihir Bhatia wrote to clients on May 15.
In a blog post, the New York Fed researchers noted that “it is unclear whether these penalties will spill over into payment difficulties in other credit products, but we will continue to monitor this space in the coming months.”
Misunderstandings keep families from claiming tax credits
Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Palo Alto Networks, Take-Two Interactive and more
Senate panel grills IRS commissioner nominee Billy Long
New 2023 K-1 instructions stir the CAMT pot for partnerships and corporations
The Essential Practice of Bank and Credit Card Statement Reconciliation
Are American progressives making themselves sad?
-
Economics1 week agoCPI inflation April 2025: Rate hits 2.3%
-
Economics1 week agoTariff receipts topped $16 billion in April, a record that helped cut the budget deficit
-
Personal Finance6 days agoHouse Republicans advance Trump’s tax bill. ‘SALT’ deduction in limbo
-
Economics5 days agoViolent crime is falling rapidly across America
-
Economics1 week agoGerman business leaders tell new government: It’s time to deliver
-
Personal Finance1 week agoHow to save on groceries amid food price inflation
-
Personal Finance1 week agoFidelity technical issues kept some investors out of their accounts
-
Economics4 days agoThe low-end consumer is about to feel the pinch as Trump restarts student loan collections