U.S. brands are rapidly losing their appeal in China as locals increasingly prefer competitive homegrown players, especially as economic growth slows, according to a TD Cowen survey released Thursday. While overall preference for Western brands dropped to 9%, down from 14% last year, certain American companies face higher risks than others, the report said, citing in-person interviews of 2,000 consumers with varied income levels in larger Chinese cities. TD Cowen partnered with an unnamed Beijing-based advisory firm to conduct the survey in February 2025, following a similar study in May 2024. The analysts see Apple ranking among the better-positioned brands in China. But they warned that several other American companies face high regional risks despite management optimism. China’s top leaders on Friday acknowledged the growing effect of trade tensions, and pledged targeted measures for struggling businesses. The official readout stopped short of a full-on stimulus announcement. “This year’s survey was conducted before the US-China trade war intensified, though threats were on the horizon,” the TD Cowen analysts said. “Add this factor to the equation, and it’s easy to see why uncertainty will remain elevated and households are likely to remain cautious going forward.” The survey found income expectations declined, with the share of respondents expecting a decline in pay over the next 12 months rising to 10% from 6%. In particular, Chinese consumers plan to spend less on a beauty items over the next six months, the survey showed, while increasing their preference for Chinese brands. U.S. cosmetics giant Estée Lauder retained first place in terms of highest awareness among Western beauty brands in China, but preference among consumers dropped to 19.6% of respondents, down from 24.3% last year. That contrasted with increases in respondents expressing a preference for the second and third market players Lancome and Chanel, respectively. In the quarter that ended Dec. 31, Estée Lauder said its Asia Pacific net sales fell 11%, due partly to “subdued consumer sentiment in mainland China, Korea and Hong Kong.” Asia Pacific accounted for 32% of overall sales in the quarter. In the lucrative sportswear category, Nike “lost meaningful preference in every category” versus last year, while local competitors Li-Ning and Anta saw gains, the survey found. TD Cowen’s analysis showed that among U.S. sportswear brands facing the most earnings risk relative to consensus expectations, Nike has the highest China sales exposure at 15%. “The China market is one characterized as a growth opportunity for sport according to Nike management in its recent fiscal Q3:25 earnings call in March 2025,” the analysts said, “but that the macro offers an increasingly challenging operating environment.” It’s not necessarily about slower growth or nationalism. While the survey found a 4-percentage-point drop in preference for foreign apparel and footwear brands, it also showed a 3-percentage-point increase in the inclination to buy the “best” product regardless of origin. “The implied perception here is that Western brands are offering less in the way of best product or value,” the TD Cowen analysts said. Starbucks similarly is running into fierce local competition while trying to maintain prices one-third or more above that of competitor Luckin Coffee, the report said. The survey found that the U.S. coffee giant “lags peers in terms of value and quality perception improvement.” Other coffee brands such as Manner, Tim’s, Cotti, %Arabica and M Stand have also expanded recently in China. Starbucks’ same-store sales in China fell 6% year on year in the quarter that ended Dec. 29, bringing the region’s share of total revenue to just under 8%. More worrisome is that a highly anticipated coffee boom in China may not materialize. “We note daily and weekly frequency of purchase among coffee drinkers are decreasing, suggesting the coffee habit seen in the U.S. is not taking hold in China,” the analysts said. They noted a new ownership structure for Starbucks‘ China business would be positive for the stock given the lack of near-term catalysts. TD Cowen rates Starbucks a buy, but has hold ratings on Nike and Estée Lauder.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, leaves the U.S. Capitol after a meeting with Republican members of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on the issue of de-banking on Feb. 13, 2025.
Dimon, the veteran CEO and chairman of the biggest U.S. bank by assets, explained his worldview during his bank’s annual investor day meeting in New York. He said he believes the risks of higher inflation and even stagflation aren’t properly represented by stock market values, which have staged a comeback from lows in April.
“We have huge deficits; we have what I consider almost complacent central banks,” Dimon said. “You all think they can manage all this. I don’t think” they can, he said.
“My own view is people feel pretty good because you haven’t seen effective tariffs” yet, Dimon said. “The market came down 10%, [it’s] back up 10%; that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”
Dimon’s comments follow Moody’s rating agency downgrading the U.S. credit rating on Friday over concerns about the government’s growing debt burden. Markets have been whipsawed the past few months over worries that President Donald Trump‘s trade policies will raise inflation and slow the world’s largest economy.
Dimon said Monday that he believed Wall Street earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies, which have already declined in the first weeks of Trump’s trade policies, will fall further as companies pull or lower guidance amid the uncertainty.
In six months, those projections will fall to 0% earnings growth after starting the year at around 12%, Dimon said. If that were to happen, stocks prices will likely fall.
“I think earnings estimates will come down, which means PE will come down,” Dimon said, referring to the “price to earnings” ratio tracked closely by stock market analysts.
The odds of stagflation, “which is basically a recession with inflation,” are roughly double what the market thinks, Dimon added.
Separately, one of Dimon’s top deputies said that corporate clients are still in “wait-and-see” mode when it comes to acquisitions and other deals.
Investment banking revenue is headed for a “mid-teens” percentage decline in the second quarter compared with the year-earlier period, while trading revenue was trending higher by a “mid-to-high” single digit percentage, said Troy Rohrbaugh, a co-head of the firm’s commercial and investment bank.
On the ever-present question of Dimon’s timeline to hand over the CEO reins to one of his deputies, Dimon said that nothing changed from his guidance last year, when he said he would likely remain for less than five more years.
“If I’m here for four more years, and maybe two more” as executive chairman, Dimon said, “that’s a long time.”
Of all the executive presentations given Monday, consumer banking chief Marianne Lake had the longest speaking time at a full hour. She is considered a top successor candidate, especially after Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Piepszak said she would not be seeking the top job.
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading. UnitedHealth — The health insurer’s stock popped roughly 7% as investors scooped up shares of the beaten-down name, which lost 23% last week. UnitedHealth had suspended its 2025 guidance, announced that its CEO is stepping down and is reportedly the subject of a U.S. Department of Justice investigation . Reddit — Shares of the social media stock dropped more than 4% following a downgrade to equal weight from overweight at Wells Fargo. The firm said search traffic disruptions at Reddit are likely to become lasting as Google’s search integrates full artificial intelligence capabilities. Tesla , Palantir — Shares of retail investor favorites Tesla and Palantir each slid more than 3% as key tech stocks led Monday’s stock market losses. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals — Shares of the drugmaker dropped about 1% after the company announced it had agreed to pay $256 million to buy most of the assets of genetic data company 23andMe out of bankruptcy. Regeneron’s deal does not include Lemonaid Health, 23andMe’s telehealth subsidiary. Bath & Body Works — Shares ticked 1% lower after the personal care retailer said CEO Gina Boswell would step down immediately. The company said former Nike executive Daniel Heaf would replace her. Alibaba — U.S.-listed shares of the Chinese e-commerce giant traded 1% lower after the New York Times reported that the Trump administration has raised concerns about Apple’ s plan to use Alibaba’s A.I. on iPhones in China. TXNM Energy — Shares of the energy company popped 7% after TXNM agreed to be acquired by Blackstone’s infrastructure unit. TXNM Energy shareholders will receive $61.25 in cash for each share as part of the deal. — CNBC’s Alex Harring, Jesse Pound and Michelle Fox contributed reporting.
Sebastian Siemiatkowski, CEO of Klarna, speaking at a fintech event in London on Monday, April 4, 2022.
Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images
Klarna saw its losses jump in the first quarter as the popular buy now, pay later firm applies the brakes on a hotly anticipated U.S. initial public offering.
The Swedish payments startup said its net loss for the first three months of 2025 totaled $99 million — significantly worse than the $47 million loss it reported a year ago. Klarna said this was due to several one-off costs related to depreciation, share-based payments and restructuring.
Revenues at the firm increased 13% year-over-year to $701 million. Klarna said it now has 100 million active users and 724,00 merchant partners globally.
It comes as Klarna remains in pause mode regarding a highly anticipated U.S. IPO that was at one stage set to value the SoftBank-backed company at over $15 billion.
Klarna put its IPO plans on hold last month due to market turbulence caused by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plans. Online ticketing platform StubHub also put its IPO plans on ice.
Prior to the IPO delay, Klarna had been on a marketing blitz touting itself as an artificial intelligence-powered fintech. The company partnered up with ChatGPT maker OpenAI in 2023. A year later, Klarna used OpenAI technology to create an AI customer service assistant.
Last week, Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski said the company was able to shrink its headcount by about 40%, in part due to investments in AI.