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This is where the 10-year yield is a ‘clear problem’ for stocks, Goldman says

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 29, 2024. 

Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters

The volatility in the bond market has had equity investors on their toes for months, but at what point will rising yields spoil stocks’ 2024 rally?

The answer is 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield, according to Goldman Sachs. In a new 19-page paper using market data since the 1980s, the Wall Street firm said when that threshold is reached, the correlation between bond yields and stocks turns negative.

“While there is no ‘magic number’, historically bond yields at around 5% is when higher yields become a clear problem for equities — that is the point where the correlation with bond yields is no longer decisively positive,” wrote a team of Goldman strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist.

The benchmark 10-year yield jumped 5 basis points Tuesday to 4.67% after data showed employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year. It marked yet another danger sign about persistent inflation, which the market thinks will keep the Federal Reserve on hold until later this year before it starts to consider cutting rates.

Goldman said investors are currently in the “optimism phase” of the cycle, where confidence — and complacency — grow, pushing valuations higher.

“Equity valuations are higher and the cycle is more mature so equity markets are very sensitive to moves in bond yields,” Goldman said. “They underperform with yields moving higher around news of overheating and higher inflation, while they outperform when the market prices Central Banks to cut interest rates.”

The 10-year Treasury yield, a key barometer for mortgage rates, auto loans and credit cards, has risen almost 80 basis points this year as the market adjusts to a higher-for-longer rate regime. The current rate on the Federal Reserve’s fed funds for overnight lending is 5.25%-5.50%.

After starting the year forecasting at least six reductions in interest rates, the market is now pricing in a 75% chance of just one rate cut, according to the CME Group’s widely followed FedWatch tracker that derives its probabilities from where 30-day fed funds futures are trading. The central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting Tuesday.

Warren Buffett has long stressed the impact of interest rates on all investments, saying higher rates exert a huge gravitational pull on asset values, lowering the present value of any future earnings.

Rising yields dent the appeal of risk assets as shorter-dated Treasury bills and longer-dated Treasury notes offer solid yields and a risk-free alternative to stocks.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

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Walmart sell-off bizarre, buy stock despite tariff risks: Bill Simon

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Walmart's stock drop after earnings is bizarre, says former CEO Bill Simon

Walmart stock may be a steal.

Former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon contends the retailer’s stock sell-off tied to a slowing profit growth forecast and tariff fears is creating a major opportunity for investors.

“I absolutely thought their guidance was pretty strong given the fact that… nobody knows what’s going to happen with tariffs,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter results.

But even if U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico move forward, Simon predicts “nothing” should happen to Walmart.

“Ultimately, the consumer decides whether there’s a tariff or not,” said Simon. “There’s a tariff on avocados from Mexico. Do you have guacamole with your chips or do you have salsa and queso where there is no tariff?”

Plus, Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands, sees Walmart as a nimble retailer.

“The big guys, Walmart, Costco, Target, Amazon… have the supply and the sourcing capability to mitigate tariffs by redirecting the product – bringing it in from different places [and] developing their own private labels,” said Simon. “Those guys will figure out tariffs.”

Walmart shares just saw their worst weekly performance since May 2022 — tumbling almost 9%. The stock price fell more than 6% on its earnings day alone. It was the stock’s worst daily performance since November 2023.

Simon thinks the sell-off is bizarre.

“I thought if you hit your numbers and did well and beat your earnings, things would usually go well for you in the market. But little do we know. You got to have some magic dust,” he said. “I don’t know how you could have done much better for the quarter.”

It’s a departure from his stance last May on “Fast Money” when he warned affluent consumers were creating a “bubble” at Walmart. It came with Walmart shares hitting record highs. He noted historical trends pointed to an eventual shift back to service from convenience and price.

But now Simon thinks the economic and geopolitical backdrop is so unprecedented, higher-income consumers may shop at Walmart permanently.

“If you liked that story yesterday before the earnings release, you should love it today because it’s… cheaper,” said Simon.

Walmart stock is now down 10% from its all-time high hit on Feb. 14. However, it’s still up about 64% over the past 52 weeks.

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China carries big risks for investors, money manager suggests

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Is China abandoning capitalism?

Investors may want to reduce their exposure to the world’s largest emerging market.

Perth Tolle, who’s the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes, warns China’s capitalism model is unsustainable.

“I think the thinking used to be that their capitalism would lead to democracy,” she told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “Economic freedom is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for personal freedom.”

She runs the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF — which is up more than 43% since its first day of trading on May 23, 2019. So far this year, Tolle’s ETF is up 9%, while the iShares China Large-Cap ETF, which tracks the country’s biggest stocks, is up 19%.

The fund has never invested in China, according to Tolle.

Tolle spent part of her childhood in Beijing. When she started at Fidelity Investments as a private wealth advisor in 2004, Tolle noted all of her clients wanted exposure to China’s market.

“I didn’t want to personally be investing in China at that point, but everyone else did,” she said. “Then, I had clients from Russia who said, ‘I don’t want to invest in Russia because it’s like funding terrorism.’ And, look how prescient that is today. So, my own experience and those of some of my clients led me to this idea in the end.”

She prefers emerging economies that prioritize freedom.

“Without that, the economy is going to be constrained,” she added.

ETF investor Tom Lydon, who is the former VettaFi head, also sees China as a risky investment.

 “If you look at emerging markets… by not being in China from a performance standpoint, it’s provided less volatility and better performance,” Lydon said.

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Read Warren Buffett’s latest annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway raised its stakes in Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co., Itochu, Marubeni and Sumitomo — all to 7.4%.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Warren Buffett released Saturday his annual letter to shareholders.

In it, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway discussed how he still preferred stocks over cash, despite the conglomerate’s massive cash hoard. He also lauded successor Greg Able for his ability to pick opportunities — and compared him to the late Charlie Munger.

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