Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 29, 2024.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
The volatility in the bond market has had equity investors on their toes for months, but at what point will rising yields spoil stocks’ 2024 rally?
The answer is 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield, according to Goldman Sachs. In a new 19-page paper using market data since the 1980s, the Wall Street firm said when that threshold is reached, the correlation between bond yields and stocks turns negative.
“While there is no ‘magic number’, historically bond yields at around 5% is when higher yields become a clear problem for equities — that is the point where the correlation with bond yields is no longer decisively positive,” wrote a team of Goldman strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist.
The benchmark 10-year yield jumped 5 basis points Tuesday to 4.67% after data showed employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year. It marked yet another danger sign about persistent inflation, which the market thinks will keep the Federal Reserve on hold until later this year before it starts to consider cutting rates.
Goldman said investors are currently in the “optimism phase” of the cycle, where confidence — and complacency — grow, pushing valuations higher.
“Equity valuations are higher and the cycle is more mature so equity markets are very sensitive to moves in bond yields,” Goldman said. “They underperform with yields moving higher around news of overheating and higher inflation, while they outperform when the market prices Central Banks to cut interest rates.”
The 10-year Treasury yield, a key barometer for mortgage rates, auto loans and credit cards, has risen almost 80 basis points this year as the market adjusts to a higher-for-longer rate regime. The current rate on the Federal Reserve’s fed funds for overnight lending is 5.25%-5.50%.
After starting the year forecasting at least six reductions in interest rates, the market is now pricing in a 75% chance of just one rate cut, according to the CME Group’s widely followed FedWatch tracker that derives its probabilities from where 30-day fed funds futures are trading. The central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting Tuesday.
Warren Buffett has long stressed the impact of interest rates on all investments, saying higher rates exert a huge gravitational pull on asset values, lowering the present value of any future earnings.
Rising yields dent the appeal of risk assets as shorter-dated Treasury bills and longer-dated Treasury notes offer solid yields and a risk-free alternative to stocks.
Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.
According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.
“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.
‘DoorDash of India’
One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.
“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”
Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.
“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”
“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.
Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.
Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.
In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”
Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.
“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.
In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.
“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.
Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.
It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.
“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”
But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.
The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.
Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.
Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.
Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.
Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.
But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.
Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.
“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”
While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”
Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.
Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.
Gas & groceries
Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.
It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.
Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.
The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.
While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.
“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”