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Trump faces a variety of choices as he seeks to fill Fed vacancies

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U.S. President Donald Trump points towards Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holding a document during a tour of the Federal Reserve Board building, which is currently undergoing renovations, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 24, 2025.

Kent Nishimura | Reuters

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler’s surprise resignation last week brought back a scenario that seemed to be fading but could have important ramifications for how the central bank conducts policy.

With the open seat on the influential central bank board, President Donald Trump now has a number of strategic options, including one where he could appoint a so-called shadow chair whose job would be largely to serve as an instigator until a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell could be named.

This in turn raises the tantalizing possibility that an institution historically known for collegiality and an ivory-toweresque approach to policy now will have to deal with a sudden dose of political intrigue.

Will Trump use the position to nominate a gadfly to torment Powell, a frequent target of blistering criticism from the president, or pursue a different strategy focused more on the long-term direction of the Fed?

“The president has two options. One is he can put a stop-gap appointment to fill the Kugler seat for the remaining four months of the unexpired term,” Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said Wednesday on CNBC. “Or he could just decide to compress the entire process and pick the person he wants to be the Fed chair now.”

Vast majority of the FOMC is 'extremely loyal' to Fed Chair Powell: Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha

Kugler’s decision to leave the Fed with little notice would be important under normal circumstances, but the nature of her situation on the board raises the ante.

Former President Joe Biden in 2023 named Kugler to the position, succeeding Lael Brainard, who moved over to the White House to serve as a senior economic advisor. Kugler served less than two years of Brainard’s unexpired term and left with only about six months remaining, accounting for the couple of months it will take for her replacement to be confirmed.

Taking into account the Senate calendar, the new governor would serve at best three or four months, then have to undergo yet another confirmation hearing should Trump decide to reappoint the person.

While Trump could be tempted to go the shadow-chair route — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the past has advocated for that course — it might be an unappetizing choice for the nominee.

The shadow chair “is still just going to be one person among many, not enjoying the powers of the office of chairman,” Guha said.

‘Apprentice’ Fed-style

For Trump, though, selecting a shadow chair would be in keeping with his affinity for conflict and making people prove themselves, Guha added.

“He likes to run things like ‘Celebrity Apprentice,'” Trump’s former reality show on NBC, Guha said. “He likes to have people trialing, dueling it out with each other. So he might be tempted with the idea of putting somebody in the seat for a few months, see how they do, if they pass the audition, then be given the nod for the next Fed chair. So I suspect he’s probably pulled in both directions here.”

The time span that came with Kugler’s announcement carries added risk. If she had stayed in the seat, the appointment wouldn’t have come at least until her term expired in January and would have been for a full 14-year term on the board. The window between now and then created by the resignation carries both opportunity and peril.

Accepting such an appointment also is a dicey proposition.

Trump has made it clear he will only appoint governors who are in favor of cutting rates. The president has stated that he not only wants reductions, but is looking for dramatic moves, along the lines of 3 percentage points. Former Fed Chair and past Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on CNBC that Trump’s rate demands “should be frightening to markets.”

“A shadow chairman with only four months to go has some risk,” said Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel. “Someone can say something that annoys Trump. Maybe there they have to take a position that Trump doesn’t like. Just the time that we’re talking about increases the chances of that happening so it becomes a more difficult option. That being said, I think the administration thinks it’s an attractive idea, and does give them some flexibility.”

The next chair

The alternative to a shadow chair, at least regarding the Kugler vacancy, is to appoint the actual person who Trump wants to serve as chair, with the understanding that they would be nominated when Powell exits.

In that case, it would present a more conventional approach and not push the new governor into a potentially adversarial relationship with colleagues with whom he or she will serve for potentially the next 14 years.

“Maybe they do this as kind of a backup plan to make sure that they have the person they want in place when the Powell chairmanship ends in in May,” Gardner says.

White House officials did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump told CNBC on Tuesday that he has the choice for Kugler’s seat down to four finalists — former Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett and two unnamed candidates. One of those in contention is thought to be current Governor Christopher Waller. Other names mentioned included economist and former World Bank President David Malpass as well as economist Judy Shelton, whom Trump tried to appoint during his first term but failed to clear Senate approval.

Betting markets are split between Warsh and Hassett as the favorite, with Shelton also drawing some interest. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has taken himself out of contention, Trump told CNBC.

Assuming Powell leaves the board after his tenure as chair ends, Trump has the chance to hold a majority of his appointees on the seven-member group. However, he would not have a majority on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which entails the seven governors plus a rotating cast of five regional presidents. His current appointees are Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, who also is the vice chair in charge of bank supervision.

Trump has promised a decision in the next few days. However, he also said he would name a Powell successor weeks ago and has not done so yet.

Yellen and others have criticized Trump for leaning so hard against the Fed for lower rates, something that previous presidents have done but in a much less public manner.

The concern is that Trump is treading on the Fed’s independence, something officials feel is vital for proper monetary policy free of political influence.

“There is going to be a bit of an institutional pushback from the Fed,” Gardner said, noting that Powell was at the Treasury Department in the early 1990s when President George H.W. Bush was pressuring then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan for lower rates. “I think it’s in a secure enough place for now, but things can change. So I don’t think it’s existential now, but of course, it’s a fluid situation.”

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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