Donald Trump is returning to the White House, and the U.S. economy is in for a wild ride.
The former and soon-to-be next president has promised an escalation of tariffs on all U.S. imports and the biggest mass deportation of migrants in history. He also wants a say in Federal Reserve policy. Many economists reckon the platform adds up to higher inflation and slower growth ahead.
Trump also promised sweeping tax cuts during the campaign that culminated in his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. His ability to deliver them may hinge on the outcome of a House contest that remains in doubt, even as Republicans won control of the Senate. A divided government would require the new president to bargain more intensively with Congress over fiscal policy.
Donald Trump during an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida
Win McNamee/Photographer: Win McNamee/Getty
Still, it’s Trump’s tariffs — which he’s threatened to slap on adversaries and allies alike — that stand to have the biggest impact on the U.S. economy, analysts say. The self-proclaimed “tariff man” enacted duties on about $380 billion in imports in his first term. Now he’s promising much wider measures, including a 10% to 20% charge on all imported goods and 60% on Chinese products.
Trump says the import taxes can help raise revenue, as well as reduce U.S. trade deficits and re-shore manufacturing. What’s more, as Trump demonstrated last time he was in office, a president can enact tariffs essentially single-handedly.
“He’s going to be off and running,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “I think we’re going to get these policies in place very quickly and they’re going to have impact immediately.”
Most economists say inflation will rise as a result, because consumers will pay higher costs that are passed on by importers who pay the tariffs.
Moody’s predicted before the vote that with Trump as president inflation would rise to at least 3% next year — and even higher in the event of a GOP sweep — from 2.4% in September, fueled by higher tariffs and an outflow of migrant labor. If targeted countries retaliate and a trade war ensues, the US will face “a modest stagflationary shock,” Wells Fargo economist Jay Bryson said in an Oct. 16 webinar, a situation in which economic output stalls and price pressures rise.
‘Winners and losers’
Such a scenario will put the Federal Reserve in the position of wanting to raise interest rates to combat inflation, but also to cut rates to prevent the risk of a recession, said Jason Furman, the former head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama.
“In economics, everything has winners and losers,” Furman said in an Oct. 17 webinar. “In this case, the losers are consumers and most businesses.”
Trump will likely have thoughts on how the central bank should respond. He told Bloomberg News he should have a “say” on interest rates, “because I think I have very good instincts.” Pressure on the Fed during a second Trump term would worry investors, because history suggests countries that allow politicians to direct monetary policy are likely to face higher inflation.
In general, Trump and his supporters dismiss the downbeat projections from “Wall Street elites.” They point out that inflation didn’t spike in his first term while he enacted tariffs and tax cuts — and presided over robust economic growth, until the pandemic hit.
The Coalition for a Prosperous America, which supports trade protectionism, estimated that a 10% “universal” tariff, combined with income-tax cuts that Trump is promising, would add more than $700 billion to economic output and create 2.8 million additional jobs.
‘Loosening up’
Michael Faulkender, chief economist at the America First Policy Institute that’s staffed with officials from Trump’s first administration, said the negative projections don’t account for the economic growth that Trump’s deregulatory agenda and plans to boost energy production would generate.
“There’s a lot of loosening up of our economy, removing structural costs in our economy, that can generate growth in an actually deflationary way,” Faulkender said.
Trump promised to make permanent the tax cuts he pushed through in 2017 for households, small businesses and the estates of wealthy individuals — most of which are due to expire at the end of 2025. Even if the GOP loses its sway over the House, there’s likely some room to strike a deal with Democrats, who also favor keeping some of those measures in place.
Any such bargaining will take place under the pressure of another looming debt-ceiling showdown, with borrowing limits set to kick in again next year under a deal to resolve a 2023 standoff. Congress-watchers see other areas for potential agreement, because some — like a tax-credit for childcare and an exemption for tips — were backed by both parties during the campaign. But some of Trump’s proposals, including further cuts in the corporate tax rate, would likely be off the table if Republicans lose the House.
The tax and spending promises that the Trump campaign rolled out during the election could collectively cost more than $10 trillion over a decade, according to Bloomberg News calculations. Trump said he’d use tariff revenues to help pay for them, but economists at the Peterson Institute estimate that the import duties could only raise a fraction of that sum.
Many economists also doubt that Trump’s trade policy can quickly boost manufacturing employment, one of the stated goals. It takes years to build factories, and automation means they nowadays require fewer workers.
A National Bureau of Economic Research study concluded that Trump’s past tariffs failed to increase jobs in protected industries, while hurting jobs in other sectors that got caught up in the trade war.
“The tariffs are not going to bring down the trade deficit, they’re not going to restore manufacturing jobs, but it’ll take several years to discover that and a lot of pain in between,” Maurice Obstfeld, formerly a chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said in an Oct. 17 webinar.
‘Significant chaos’
Trump’s threat to deport millions of undocumented migrants is another source of alarm to many economists and businesses. It would reduce the labor pool available to companies that have found it hard to hire.
Deporting post-2020 arrivals would shrink the economy by some 3% by the next election in 2028, while the drop in demand from a smaller population would lower prices, Bloomberg Economics’ Chris Collins wrote in a note. The impact would likely land hardest in industries like construction, leisure and hospitality — and states including Texas, Florida and California — where migrants make up the biggest share of the labor force.
Of course, campaign pledges often fall by the wayside, and the economic impact of Trump’s second-term policies will depend on which ones he prioritizes and can get done.
Many doubt that deportations of migrants are feasible on the scale Trump has proposed. He’s floated using the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or even the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 — used to justify World War II-era internment of noncitizens — to carry out the plan, which would likely face court challenges.
As for tariffs, Trump himself has indicated the numbers he floats are often intended as bargaining levers. But even the threat of tariffs will be disruptive as companies scramble to renegotiate contracts and reconfigure supply chains to get ahead of the potential duties, said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project.
“We’re going to see this significant chaos across the entire business landscape,” she said.
Corporate accounting departments face an expanded regulatory mandate as mandatory sustainability and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting frameworks take full effect internationally. Governed by the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) IFRS S1 and S2 standards, enterprise financial controllers are now legally required to track, verify, and report non-financial data with the same internal controls and auditability as traditional financial statements.
The expansion shifts ESG compliance
This regulatory expansion shifts ESG compliance from marketing departments to corporate accounting offices. Financial managers are now responsible for gathering, consolidating, and verifying carbon emissions metrics, supply chain labor conditions, water usage, and climate risk exposures across multi-tiered corporate structures. These non-financial metrics must be integrated into standardized general ledgers to withstand rigorous third-party audit assurance processes.
To comply with these rigorous reporting mandates, accounting software providers have added dedicated ESG modules designed to aggregate data from IoT sensors, utility platforms, and vendor management systems. Controllers are implementing internal control frameworks—modeled after traditional COSO frameworks—to ensure the completeness, accuracy, and consistency of sustainability disclosures, protecting organizations against greenwashing penalties and litigation risks.
The transition requires significant cross-functional collaboration between accounting teams, legal counsel, and operational directors. Accounting professionals are expanding their technical expertise beyond financial ledgers to master carbon accounting methodologies, lifecycle assessment standards, and non-financial data governance protocols, fundamentally expanding the role of the modern corporate accountant.
Why This Information Matters
Mandatory ESG disclosures require companies to treat environmental and social metrics as audited financial records. Executives, accountants, and board members must institute formal tracking and assurance processes to satisfy legal mandates, maintain investor confidence, and mitigate regulatory non-compliance risks.
A proposal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to potentially shift some public companies away from quarterly financial reporting toward a semiannual model is drawing significant pushback from investors, even as it continues moving through the regulatory process. The debate has direct implications for corporate finance teams, auditors, and the broader transparency of U.S. capital markets.
What the SEC Proposed
According to a summary published by accounting advisory firm Cohen & Co., the SEC issued a proposed rule on May 19, 2026, aimed at simplifying financial reporting requirements for many U.S. public companies. The proposal would potentially reduce the frequency of certain mandatory disclosures from quarterly to semiannual, a structural change that has not been made to core U.S. reporting requirements in decades.
The proposal follows an extended debate within U.S. policy circles, with proponents arguing that reduced reporting frequency could lower compliance costs and free up management time for longer-term strategic planning rather than quarter-to-quarter results management.
Why Investors Are Pushing Back
Comment letters submitted in response to the proposal have been extensive, and according to Cohen & Co.’s review of the public record, investors “appear to be largely opposed” to the shift, viewing frequent interim reporting as a core benefit of U.S. capital markets relative to other jurisdictions.
Accounting and law firms have taken a more measured position, generally urging any changes to remain aligned with the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), whose existing disclosure requirements and guidance are built around a quarterly reporting cadence. A shift to semiannual reporting without corresponding changes to FASB guidance could create friction between SEC filing requirements and GAAP-based disclosure expectations.
Lessons From the U.K. Experience
The debate is not without precedent. The United Kingdom moved away from mandatory quarterly reporting for listed companies in 2014, returning to a semiannual disclosure requirement. According to Cohen & Co.’s analysis, that experience offers a cautionary data point: there was no measurable increase in capital expenditure or R&D investment following the change, while analyst coverage of affected companies declined as reliable interim information became less available — a particular risk for smaller and newly public companies that rely on analyst coverage to maintain investor visibility.
Practical Implications for Finance Teams
Beyond the debate over disclosure philosophy, the proposal carries practical complications. Many companies have debt covenants and credit agreements structured around quarterly financial delivery; a shift to semiannual reporting could require renegotiating those terms. Reduced reporting frequency would also extend the “window of market silence” between disclosures, a factor that governance and investor-relations teams would need to manage carefully to avoid information asymmetry.
Separately, and unrelated to the reporting-frequency debate, the SEC and FASB have continued finalizing more routine updates this year. New Accounting Standards Updates are taking effect for December 31, 2026, fiscal year-ends covering income tax disclosures, credit loss measurement, induced debt conversions, and stock compensation, according to Eide Bailly’s review of 2026 ASU activity. Additional guidance on paid-in-kind dividends and environmental credits is also on the near-term horizon.
What to Watch Next
The semiannual reporting proposal remains in the comment and review phase, and no final rule has been adopted as of this writing. Finance leaders should monitor the SEC’s regulatory agenda for further movement, while treating the current quarterly reporting requirement as the operative standard until any final rule is issued and an effective date is set.
Given the extent of investor opposition documented in the comment file, a full shift to mandatory semiannual reporting appears more likely to result in either a scaled-back compromise or continued study rather than swift adoption — though the SEC’s ultimate direction remains uncertain.
The accounting profession is undergoing a fundamental structural transition as enterprise finance departments shift from periodic month-end closes toward automated continuous accounting models. By integrating specialized machine learning algorithms directly into enterprise resource planning (ERP) platforms, chief accounting officers are transforming financial reporting from a retrospective exercise into a real-time operational asset.
The Shift from Periodic Close to Continuous Financial Reporting
Traditional accounting workflows heavily relied on manual data reconciliation, spreadsheet calculations, and multi-week closing cycles at the end of each fiscal period. In contrast, continuous accounting frameworks utilize automated software agents to process, validate, and post transactional data in real time as business activities occur.
Automated bank reconciliation tools cross-reference incoming bank feeds, invoice records, and purchase orders automatically. By resolving transactional variances instantly throughout the month, corporate accounting teams eliminate the traditional workload spikes associated with quarterly and annual closes.
Machine Learning in Audit Trails and Anomaly Detection
Advanced natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning tools are redefining internal audit and financial control environments. Automated systems analyze 100% of general ledger entries, identifying anomalous transactions, duplicate payments, and unauthorized journal entries in real time.
Rather than relying on random statistical sampling, corporate internal auditors can focus their attention on high-risk flags automatically surfaced by algorithmic monitoring platforms. This continuous risk assessment strengthens internal controls over financial reporting (ICFR) and significantly reduces fraud risk.
Evolving Roles for Accounting Professionals
As routine data entry and manual reconciliation tasks become fully automated, the skill set required for accounting professionals is shifting toward data analysis, system design, and strategic business advisory.
– Systems Governance: Accountants are increasingly responsible for monitoring algorithmic accuracy and managing data integration pipelines.
– Business Partnership: Finance professionals leverage real-time financial dashboards to advise operational leaders on margin management and working capital allocation.
– Regulatory Compliance Management: Accounting teams utilize automated platforms to ensure compliance with dynamic tax codes and international accounting standards.
Core Implementation Recommendations
1. Deploy Automated Reconciliation Tools: Integrate continuous transaction processing modules into existing enterprise ERP architectures.
2. Establish Algorithmic Governance Controls: Implement strict internal testing protocols to ensure automated accounting rules comply with GAAP/IFRS standards.
3. Reskill Accounting Teams: Invest in training finance staff on data analytics, workflow automation, and predictive financial modeling.