Connect with us

Accounting

Trump to reshape US economy with tariffs, crackdown on migrants

Published

on

Donald Trump is returning to the White House, and the U.S. economy is in for a wild ride.

The former and soon-to-be next president has promised an escalation of tariffs on all U.S. imports and the biggest mass deportation of migrants in history. He also wants a say in Federal Reserve policy. Many economists reckon the platform adds up to higher inflation and slower growth ahead.

Trump also promised sweeping tax cuts during the campaign that culminated in his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. His ability to deliver them may hinge on the outcome of a House contest that remains in doubt, even as Republicans won control of the Senate. A divided government would require the new president to bargain more intensively with Congress over fiscal policy.

Donald Trump during an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida
Donald Trump during an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida

Win McNamee/Photographer: Win McNamee/Getty

Still, it’s Trump’s tariffs — which he’s threatened to slap on adversaries and allies alike — that stand to have the biggest impact on the U.S. economy, analysts say. The self-proclaimed “tariff man” enacted duties on about $380 billion in imports in his first term. Now he’s promising much wider measures, including a 10% to 20% charge on all imported goods and 60% on Chinese products. 

Trump says the import taxes can help raise revenue, as well as reduce U.S. trade deficits and re-shore manufacturing. What’s more, as Trump demonstrated last time he was in office, a president can enact tariffs essentially single-handedly. 

“He’s going to be off and running,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “I think we’re going to get these policies in place very quickly and they’re going to have impact immediately.”

Most economists say inflation will rise as a result, because consumers will pay higher costs that are passed on by importers who pay the tariffs.

Moody’s predicted before the vote that with Trump as president inflation would rise to at least 3% next year — and even higher in the event of a GOP sweep — from 2.4% in September, fueled by higher tariffs and an outflow of migrant labor. If targeted countries retaliate and a trade war ensues, the US will face “a modest stagflationary shock,” Wells Fargo economist Jay Bryson said in an Oct. 16 webinar, a situation in which economic output stalls and price pressures rise. 

‘Winners and losers’

Such a scenario will put the Federal Reserve in the position of wanting to raise interest rates to combat inflation, but also to cut rates to prevent the risk of a recession, said Jason Furman, the former head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama.

“In economics, everything has winners and losers,” Furman said in an Oct. 17 webinar. “In this case, the losers are consumers and most businesses.”

Trump will likely have thoughts on how the central bank should respond. He told Bloomberg News he should have a “say” on interest rates, “because I think I have very good instincts.” Pressure on the Fed during a second Trump term would worry investors, because history suggests countries that allow politicians to direct monetary policy are likely to face higher inflation.

In general, Trump and his supporters dismiss the downbeat projections from “Wall Street elites.” They point out that inflation didn’t spike in his first term while he enacted tariffs and tax cuts — and presided over robust economic growth, until the pandemic hit.

The Coalition for a Prosperous America, which supports trade protectionism, estimated that a 10% “universal” tariff, combined with income-tax cuts that Trump is promising, would add more than $700 billion to economic output and create 2.8 million additional jobs.

‘Loosening up’

Michael Faulkender, chief economist at the America First Policy Institute that’s staffed with officials from Trump’s first administration, said the negative projections don’t account for the economic growth that Trump’s deregulatory agenda and plans to boost energy production would generate.

“There’s a lot of loosening up of our economy, removing structural costs in our economy, that can generate growth in an actually deflationary way,” Faulkender said.

Trump promised to make permanent the tax cuts he pushed through in 2017 for households, small businesses and the estates of wealthy individuals — most of which are due to expire at the end of 2025. Even if the GOP loses its sway over the House, there’s likely some room to strike a deal with Democrats, who also favor keeping some of those measures in place. 

Any such bargaining will take place under the pressure of another looming debt-ceiling showdown, with borrowing limits set to kick in again next year under a deal to resolve a 2023 standoff. Congress-watchers see other areas for potential agreement, because some — like a tax-credit for childcare and an exemption for tips — were backed by both parties during the campaign. But some of Trump’s proposals, including further cuts in the corporate tax rate, would likely be off the table if Republicans lose the House. 

The tax and spending promises that the Trump campaign rolled out during the election could collectively cost more than $10 trillion over a decade, according to Bloomberg News calculations. Trump said he’d use tariff revenues to help pay for them, but economists at the Peterson Institute estimate that the import duties could only raise a fraction of that sum.

Many economists also doubt that Trump’s trade policy can quickly boost manufacturing employment, one of the stated goals. It takes years to build factories, and automation means they nowadays require fewer workers.

A National Bureau of Economic Research study concluded that Trump’s past tariffs failed to increase jobs in protected industries, while hurting jobs in other sectors that got caught up in the trade war.

“The tariffs are not going to bring down the trade deficit, they’re not going to restore manufacturing jobs, but it’ll take several years to discover that and a lot of pain in between,” Maurice Obstfeld, formerly a chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said in an Oct. 17 webinar.

‘Significant chaos’

Trump’s threat to deport millions of undocumented migrants is another source of alarm to many economists and businesses. It would reduce the labor pool available to companies that have found it hard to hire. 

Deporting post-2020 arrivals would shrink the economy by some 3% by the next election in 2028, while the drop in demand from a smaller population would lower prices, Bloomberg Economics’ Chris Collins wrote in a note. The impact would likely land hardest in industries like construction, leisure and hospitality — and states including Texas, Florida and California — where migrants make up the biggest share of the labor force.

Of course, campaign pledges often fall by the wayside, and the economic impact of Trump’s second-term policies will depend on which ones he prioritizes and can get done.

Many doubt that deportations of migrants are feasible on the scale Trump has proposed. He’s floated using the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or even the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 — used to justify World War II-era internment of noncitizens — to carry out the plan, which would likely face court challenges.

As for tariffs, Trump himself has indicated the numbers he floats are often intended as bargaining levers. But even the threat of tariffs will be disruptive as companies scramble to renegotiate contracts and reconfigure supply chains to get ahead of the potential duties, said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project. 

“We’re going to see this significant chaos across the entire business landscape,” she said.

Continue Reading

Accounting

Continuous Auditing Transforms Corporate ERPs

Published

on

continuous auditing transforms corporate erps

As corporate accounting departments cross the threshold into late July 2026, the adoption of continuous, automated auditing systems has reached a definitive turning point. Driven by advances in artificial intelligence and deep integration with modern Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) platforms, leading finance organizations are moving away from traditional, periodic post-hoc audits in favor of real-time, 100% transactional verification. This technological transition is redefining internal control environments, reducing compliance costs, and eliminating the structural delays inherent in legacy quarterly closing processes.

Unlike traditional auditing frameworks that rely on statistical sampling—a process that inevitably leaves operational blind spots—continuous auditing software monitors operational data feeds continuously. Every purchase order, electronic invoice, payroll disbursement, and cross-border wire transfer is automatically cross-referenced against established corporate governance parameters, regulatory tax schedules, and anti-fraud algorithms in real time. Anomalies or unauthorized ledger entries are flagged instantly, allowing internal audit teams to investigate and remediate compliance gaps immediately rather than months after the close of a financial period.

The implications for executive financial management are far-reaching. By embedding continuous verification directly into daily transaction workflows, chief financial officers gain uninterrupted visibility into the organization’s true financial standing. Real-time balance sheet auditing eliminates the severe operational bottlenecks associated with month-end and quarter-end financial reconciliations, freeing accounting professionals to focus on strategic financial modeling, tax planning, and capital allocation rather than manual data entry and spreadsheet consolidation.

However, implementing continuous auditing requires accounting leadership to invest heavily in data governance and technical upskilling. Internal audit teams must evolve from manual ledger reviewers into system architects capable of auditing complex algorithms and validating automated data pipelines. Accounting firms and corporate controllers that master continuous auditing will establish a resilient compliance framework capable of meeting stringent international regulatory standards with total transparency.

Continue Reading

Accounting

U.S. Imposes New 50% Tariffs on Canadian Imports Under Rare Legal Provision

Published

on

U.S. Imposes New 50% Tariffs on Canadian Imports Under Rare Legal Provision

WASHINGTON — In a major escalation of cross-border trade friction, U.S. President Donald Trump has signed executive orders imposing new 50% tariffs on a wide selection of Canadian exports, citing discriminatory practices by Ottawa targeting American auto, dairy, and beverage industries.

The new duties, announced Monday, will take effect in 30 days. They target a broad spectrum of consumer and industrial goods—ranging from wine, liquor, and milk products to commercial cement, furniture, clothing, and hockey equipment.

Untested Legal Mechanism

To enact the sweeping measures, the administration invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930—a rarely used legal provision allowing the executive branch to levy additional tariffs of up to 50% on foreign nations deemed to discriminate against U.S. commerce.

White House officials noted that Section 338 addresses trade discrimination rather than national security or economic emergencies. The move comes months after prior global emergency tariffs faced legal challenges in domestic courts, signaling Washington’s pivot toward alternate statutory authorities to maintain import duties.

Senior administration officials briefed reporters that the measure directly responds to Canadian provincial bans on U.S. alcohol, restrictions on American vehicle exports, and import quota disparities affecting U.S. dairy and cheese producers relative to third-party trading partners.

“While the administration continues to secure reciprocal trade agreements globally, Canada retaliated against efforts to protect domestic industry,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated.

USMCA Impact and Carve-Outs

Significantly, the newly ordered 50% duties will apply to designated items even if they otherwise comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

However, the administration confirmed key targeted exemptions:

  • Energy products (including oil and natural gas)
  • Potash and critical minerals
  • Fish and seafood
  • Goods already governed by sector-specific duties (such as existing steel and aluminum tariffs)

Administration representatives emphasized that the tariffs do not stem from recent disputes concerning drifting Canadian wildfire smoke, noting that policy options regarding environmental spillover remain under separate review.

Canadian Response and Market Reaction

Following the White House announcement, the Canadian dollar experienced a sharp decline against the U.S. dollar, falling approximately 0.4% during evening trading.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney issued a statement emphasizing that Canada’s earlier counter-duties had merely matched previous U.S. trade actions. “Canada stands ready to engage intensively to address outstanding issues with the U.S. to the mutual benefit of our citizens,” Carney stated, pointing to detailed proposals Ottawa submitted to modernize the USMCA framework.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford took a firmer stance, urging a “dollar-for-dollar” reciprocal response if the measures go into effect on August 19.

With a 30-day implementation window before the duties officially lock in, industry associations and trade groups on both sides of the border are calling for urgent bilateral negotiations to avert further supply chain disruption across North America.

Continue Reading

Accounting

Automated Continuous Auditing: Transforming Compliance and Real-Time Financial Oversight

Published

on

Transforming Compliance and Real-Time Financial Oversight

The traditional accounting paradigm—defined by periodic monthly closures and post-hoc annual audits—is rapidly giving way to continuous, automated financial oversight. As of July 2026, forward-thinking accounting practices and multinational corporate finance departments are leveraging continuous auditing systems powered by advanced machine learning models. These systems monitor operational transactions in real time, shifting audit methodologies from sample-based post-analysis to absolute, 100% transaction-level verification.

The operational advantages of continuous auditing are transformative. Standard auditing procedures historically relied on statistical sampling, which, despite rigorous methodology, inherently left gaps where anomalies or fraudulent transactions could go undetected for months. Modern continuous auditing platforms integrate directly with enterprise resource planning (ERP) databases, instantly cross-referencing purchase orders, invoices, bank feeds, and tax records. Any deviation from established control parameters or unusual transaction behavior triggers immediate flags for internal audit teams, dramatically reducing detection lag from quarters to seconds.

Beyond fraud prevention, continuous auditing fundamentally alters internal reporting and decision-making. Executive leadership no longer has to wait weeks after the close of a quarter to evaluate precise financial standing; real-time verified ledger data provides an uninterrupted view of operating margins, tax liabilities, and cash flow dynamics. This real-time visibility enables corporate controllers to adjust capital allocation strategies dynamically, mitigating liquidity constraints and capitalizing on emerging commercial opportunities far more efficiently than competitors bound to legacy reporting cycles.

However, implementing continuous auditing requires accounting professionals to acquire new analytical capabilities. The role of the auditor is evolving from manual data reconciliation toward system validation, algorithmic model governance, and strategic risk interpretation. Accounting firms and corporate finance departments must invest in continuous technical education, ensuring that audit staff possess the data engineering skills necessary to design, maintain, and evaluate complex automated compliance systems.

Continue Reading

Trending