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U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses

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The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025, fueling recession fears at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term in office as he wages a potentially costly trade war.

Gross domestic product, a sum of all the goods and services produced from January through March, fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 0.4% after GDP rose by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, over the past day or so some Wall Street economists changed their outlook to negative growth, largely due to an unexpected rise in imports as companies and consumers sought to get ahead of the Trump tariffs implemented in early April.

Indeed, imports soared 41.3% for the quarter, driven by a 50.9% increase in goods. Imports subtract from GDP, so the contraction in growth may not be viewed as negatively given the potential for the trend to reverse in subsequent quarters. Imports took more than 5 percentage points off the headline reading.

Consumer spending slowed during the period but was still positive. Personal consumption expenditures increased 1.8% for the period, the slowest quarterly gain since Q2 of 2023 and down from a 4% gain in the prior quarter.

Moreover, private domestic investment soared during the period, rising 21.9%.

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Economics

Joe Biden did not decline alone

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Accept, for a moment, Joe Biden’s contention that he is as mentally as sharp as ever. Then try to explain some revelations of the books beginning to appear about his presidency: that he never held a formal meeting to discuss whether to run for a second term; that he never heard directly from his own pollsters about his dismal public standing, or anything else; that by 2024 most of his own cabinet secretaries had no contact with him; that, when he was in Washington, he would often eat dinner at 4.30pm and vanish into his private quarters by 5.15; that when he travelled, he often skipped briefings while keeping a morning appointment with a makeup artist to cover his wrinkles and liver spots. You might think that Mr Biden—that anyone—would welcome as a rationale that he had lost a step or two. It is a kinder explanation than the alternatives: vanity, hubris, incompetence.

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Economics

Three paths the Supreme Court could take on birthright citizenship 

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AMERICA’S SUPREME COURT appears unusually uncertain about how to resolve Trump v CASA—a case that could redefine who qualifies as an American citizen and reshape the limits of judicial power. At issue is the 14th Amendment’s promise of citizenship for “all persons born or naturalised” in America. For more than 125 years this has been understood to grant automatic citizenship to almost everyone born on American soil (the children of diplomats and soldiers of invading armies are exceptions). Donald Trump has issued an executive order that claims the clause was never intended to apply to children of undocumented immigrants and temporary visa-holders.

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Economics

The MAGA revolution threatens America’s most innovative place

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Cuts to funding risk hobbling Boston’s science establishment

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