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U.S. economy will see ‘more things break’ in 2025 if rates stay high: Strategist

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024.

Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters

The U.S. economy could be headed for stormy waters in 2025 if the Federal Reserve does not take action soon on interest rates, State Street’s head of investment strategy in EMEA said Tuesday.

Altaf Kassam told CNBC that classic monetary policy mechanisms had “broken,” meaning that any changes made by the Fed will now take longer to trickle down into the real economy — potentially delaying any major shocks.

“The traditional transmission policy mechanism has broken, or doesn’t work as well,” Kassam told “Squawk Box Europe.”

The research chief attributed that shift to two things. Firstly, U.S. consumers, whose largest liability is typically their mortgage, which were mostly secured on a longer-term, fixed rate basis during the Covid-19 low-interest rate era. Similarly, U.S. companies largely refinanced their debts at lower rates at the same time.

As such, the impact of, for example, sustained higher interest rates may not be felt until further down the line when they come to refinance.

“The problem is, if rates stay at this level until say 2025, when a big wall of refinancing is due, then I think we will start to see more things break,” Kassam said.

“For now, consumers and corporates aren’t feeling the pinch of higher interest rates,” he added.

JPMorgan's Michael Feroli: Still expect the Fed to carry out its first rate cut in July

Expectations of a near-term Fed rate cuts have faded lately amid persistent inflation data and hawkish commentary from policymakers.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Monday there was “no urgency” to cut U.S. interest rates, with the economy and labor market continuing to show signs of strength, and inflation still above the Fed’s target of 2%.

Until as recently as last month, markets had been anticipating up to three rate cuts this year, with the first in June. However, a string of banks have since pushed back their timelines, with Bank of America and Deutsche Bank both saying last week that they now expect just one rate cut in December.

That marks a deviation from the European Central Bank, which is still broadly expected to lower rates in June after holding steady at its meeting last week. However, Morgan Stanley on Monday trimmed its 2024 rate cut expectations for the ECB from 100 basis points to 75 basis points, which it said was due to “the change in the forecast of the Fed cutting cycle.”

Kassam said Tuesday that State Street’s expectations of a June Fed rate cut had not changed.

Economics

A protest against America’s TikTok ban is mired in contradiction

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AS A SHUTDOWN looms, TikTok in America has the air of the last day of school. The Brits are saying goodbye to the Americans. Australians are waiting in the wings to replace banished American influencers. And American users are bidding farewell to their fictional Chinese spies—a joke referencing the American government’s accusation that China is using the app (which is owned by ByteDance, a Chinese tech giant) to surveil American citizens.

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Economics

Home insurance costs soar as climate events surge, Treasury Dept. says

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Firefighters battle flames during the Eaton Fire in Pasadena, California, U.S., Jan. 7, 2025.

Mario Anzuoni | Reuters

Climate-related natural disasters are driving up insurance costs for homeowners in the most-affected regions, according to a Treasury Department report released Thursday.

In a voluminous study covering 2018-22 and including some data beyond that, the department found that there were 84 disasters costing $1 billion or more, excluding floods, and that they caused a combined $609 billion in damages. Floods are not covered under homeowner policies.

During the period, costs for policies across all categories rose 8.7% faster than the rate of inflation. However, the burden went largely to those living in areas most hit by climate-related events.

For consumers living in the 20% of zip codes with the highest expected annual losses, premiums averaged $2,321, or 82% more than those living in the 20% of lowest-risk zip codes.

“Homeowners insurance is becoming more costly and less accessible for consumers as the costs of climate-related events pose growing challenges to both homeowners and insurers alike,” said Nellie Liang, undersecretary of the Treasury for domestic finance.

The report comes as rescue workers continue to battle raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area. At least 25 people have been killed and 180,000 homeowners have been displaced.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the costs from the fires are still unknown, but noted that the report reflected an ongoing serious problem. During the period studied, there was nearly double the annual total of disasters declared for climate-related events as in the period of 1960-2010 combined.

“Moreover, this [wildfire disaster] does not stand alone as evidence of this impact, with other climate-related events leading to challenges for Americans in finding affordable insurance coverage – from severe storms in the Great Plans to hurricanes in the Southeast,” Yellen said in a statement. “This report identifies alarming trends of rising costs of insurance, all of which threaten the long-term prosperity of American families.”

Both homeowners and insurers in the most-affected areas were paying in other ways as well.

Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk areas were about 80% higher than those in less-risky areas, while insurers paid average claims of $24,000 in higher-risk areas compared to $19,000 in lowest-risk regions.

In the Southeast, which includes states such as Florida and Louisiana that frequently are slammed by hurricanes, the claim frequency was 20% higher than the national average.

In the Southwest, which includes California, wildfires tore through 3.3 million acres during the time period, with five events causing more than $100 million in damages. The average loss claim was nearly $27,000, or nearly 50% higher than the national average. Nonrenewal rates for insurance were 23.5% higher than the national average.

The Treasury Department released its findings with just three days left in the current administration. Treasury officials said they hope the administration under President-elect Donald Trump uses the report as a springboard for action.

“We certainly are hopeful that our successors stay focused on this issue and continue to produce important research on this issue and think about important and creative ways to address it,” an official said.

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Economics

How bad will the smoke be for Angelenos’ health?

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Where there is fire, there is smoke. For the people of Los Angeles, this will add to the misery. Some are already suffering from burning throats and irritated eyes. Many miles from the wildfires, people are wearing masks; shops are running out. The fires may also cause long-term problems.

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