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U.S. ‘industrial renaissance’ is driving a rebound in fundraising

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Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of Blackstone Inc., from left, Ron O’Hanley, chief executive officer of State Street Corp., Ted Pick, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, Marc Rowan, chief executive officer of Apollo Global Management LLC, and David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., during the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong, China, on Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024. 

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An “industrial renaissance” in the U.S. is fueling demand for capital, Marc Rowan, CEO of Apollo Global Management said at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong.

“There is so much demand for capital, [including through debt and equity] … What’s going on is nothing short of extraordinary,” Rowan said on Tuesday during a panel discussion. 

This demand has been supported by massive government spending, particularly on infrastructure, the semiconductor industry and projects under the Inflation Reduction Act, said the asset manager, who is reportedly in the running for Treasury Secretary position under President-elect Donald Trump.

“What we’re watching is this incredible demand for capital happening against a backdrop of a U.S. government that is running significant deficits. And so the capital raising business, I think that’s going to be a good business,” he said. 

Industrial policies, including the CHIPS and Science Act and the 2021 infrastructure legislation, warrant billions in spending.

Rowan added that the U.S. has been the largest recipient of foreign direct investment over the past three years and is expected to stay at the top spot this year as well.

Rowan and other panelists also identified energy and data centers — needed for artificial intelligence and digitization — as growth sectors requiring more capital. 

Blackstone President and COO Jonathan Gray told the panel that data centers were the biggest theme across his entire firm, with the company employing billions on their development.

“We’re doing it in equity, we’re doing it financing … this is a space we like a lot, and we will continue to be all in as it relates to digital infrastructure.”

Fundraising and M&A recovery

Other panelists at the summit organized by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said that capital raising was well-positioned to recover from a recent slowdown. 

According to David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, capital raising activity had reached peak levels in 2020 and 2021 amid massive Covid-era stimulus but later became muted amid the war in Ukraine, inflation pressures and tighter regulation from the Federal Trade Commission. 

There has been a recent pick up in activity as conditions have normalized, along with expectations of friendlier regulation on dealmaking from the FTC under the incoming Donald Trump administration, Solomon said. 

While there remains an inflationary backdrop and other risks in the current environment, Ted Pick, CEO of Morgan Stanley said that the consumer and corporate community are “by in large, in good shape” as the economy continues to grow. 

“This environment has been one where, if you are in the business of allocating capital, it’s been great,” he said, adding that the group was now gearing up to get into “raising capital mode.” 

“That is [the] hallmark of a growing and thriving economy, which is where the classic underwriting and mergers and acquisitions businesses take hold,” he said. 

Solomon predicted that these trends would see “more robust” capital raising and M&A activity in 2025.

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Fintechs are 2024’s biggest gainers among financials

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Jason Wilk

Source: Jason Wilk

Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.

It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.

“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”

But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.

The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.

Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.

Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.

Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.

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Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.

But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.

Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.

“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”

While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”

Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.

Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.

Gas & groceries

Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.

It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.

Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.

The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.

While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.

“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”

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Stocks making the biggest moves midday: NVO, AVO, OXY

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CFPB sues JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo over Zelle fraud

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Rohit Chopra, director of the CFPB, testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Semi-Annual Report to Congress,” in the Dirksen Building on Nov. 30, 2023.

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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Friday sued the operator of the Zelle payments network and the three U.S. banks that dominant transactions on it, alleging that the firms failed to properly investigate fraud complaints or give victims reimbursements.

The CFPB said customers of the three banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo — have lost more than $870 million since the launch of Zelle in 2017. Zelle, a peer-to-peer payments network run by bank-owned fintech firm Early Warning Services, allows for instant payments to other consumers and businesses and has quickly surged to become the biggest such service in the country.

“The nation’s largest banks felt threatened by competing payment apps, so they rushed to put out Zelle,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “By their failing to put in place proper safeguards, Zelle became a gold mine for fraudsters, while often leaving victims to fend for themselves.”

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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