Finance

UK car finance industry in crisis, with banks bracing for mega payouts

Published

2 months ago

November 14, 2024

View looking towards the Royal Exchange and in the City of London where the glass architecture of the tower 22 Bishopsgate disappears into mist on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

Britain’s motor finance industry is in disarray, with analysts warning of worst-case scenarios similar in magnitude to the country’s costliest consumer banking scandal.

The burgeoning crisis stems back to a landmark judgement from the U.K.’s Court of Appeal in late October, when the court ruled it was unlawful for car dealers to receive bonuses from banks providing motor finance — without getting the customer’s informed consent.

The decision caught many in the motor finance industry off guard and appears to have paved the way for a multi-billion-pound redress scheme to compensate consumers.

It has prompted comparisons to Britain’s payment protection insurance (PPI) scandal, which was estimated to have cost banks more than £50 billion ($63.8 billion) and is regarded as the biggest mis-selling scandal in the country’s financial services history.

Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority, the country’s financial watchdog, said on Wednesday that it will write to the Supreme Court to expedite a decision over whether to give lenders the green light to appeal the ruling.

Banks left ‘in limbo’

The FCA, which noted that car financing groups were likely to have received a surge in complaints in recent weeks, said that it would consider intervening “to share its expertise” if permission to appeal is granted.

It urged motor finance groups to consider setting aside financial provisions to resolve the high volume of complaints.

Niklas Kammer, equity analyst at Morningstar, said Britain’s banks have been left in “in limbo” since the Oct. 25 court ruling, with Lloyds thought to be the most at risk through its Black Horse business. Barclays also has some exposure, Kammer said, “but meaningfully less.”

A Lloyds Banking Group Plc bank branch in London, UK, on Monday, Oct. 21, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“I think it is fair to say that the ruling by the Court of Appeal came as a surprise to the banks as well as the FCA. According to the banks, they followed the rules and guidelines set by the FCA, which are not aligned with the new Court of Appeal ruling,” Kammer told CNBC via email.

“As such, there exists significant uncertainty which set of rules banks have to abide by. The FCA has said that it will await the outcome of a potential Supreme Court ruling before taking a decision on the matter,” Kammer said.

“If the ruling stands, the FCA will have to change its rules on disclosures. Initially, the FCA pointed out that the matter should not take similar proportions to the PPI mis-selling, but should the new ruling stand, worst case scenarios do come close to the same magnitude in impact.”

Lenders ‘likely to pull out of the market’

Benjamin Toms, U.K. banks analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said that if the Supreme Court upholds the lower courts verdict, the downside impact for the motor finance sector, which includes both banks and non-banks, could be as much as £28 billion.

“Some lenders are likely to pull out of the market, which will mean less choice and higher prices for those looking to buy a vehicle,” Toms said.

“There is also the potential for legal creep, with other types of lending like premium finance also coming under the spotlight,” he added.

London Taxis wait in a queue at a taxi rank outside Fenchurch Street Station on October 14, 2024 in London, United Kingdom.

John Keeble | Getty Images News | Getty Images

In January, the FCA launched a review into the motor finance industry to probe whether there was widespread misconduct related to discretionary commission arrangements, or DCAs, before they were banned in 2021.

It said on Wednesday that it is currently considering the impact of the Court of Appeal’s judgement on its review.

Fitch, an influential rating agency, warned earlier this month that it had placed the ratings of Close Brothers Group on “Rating Watch Negative” due to the lender’s “high exposure” to motor finance.

Other lenders that have been “significantly involved” in motor finance lending include Barclays, Investec, Lloyds and Santander UK, Fitch said.

Lloyds, Britain’s largest car finance business, has set aside £450 million in financial provisions.

Finance

Fed Governor Bowman says December interest rate cut should be the last

Published

18 hours ago

January 9, 2025

Business Finance News

Michelle Bowman, governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during the Exchequer Club meeting in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 21, 2024.

Kent Nishimura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Thursday she supported the recent interest rate cuts but doesn’t see the need to go any further.

In a speech to bankers in California that was part monetary policy, part regulation, Bowman said concerns she has that inflation has held “uncomfortably above” the Fed’s 2% goal lead her to believe that the quarter percentage point reduction in December should be the last one for the current cycle.

“I supported the December policy action because, in my view, it represented the [Federal Open Market Committee’s] final step in the policy recalibration phase,” the central banker said in prepared remarks. Bowman added that the current policy rate is near what she thinks of as “neutral” that neither supports nor restrains growth.

Despite the progress that has been made, there are “upside risks to inflation,” Bowman added. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a rate of 2.4% in November but was at 2.8% when excluding food and energy, a core measure that officials see as a better long-run indicator.

“The rate of inflation declined significantly in 2023, but this progress appears to have stalled last year with core inflation still uncomfortably above the Committee’s 2 percent goal,” Bowman added.

The remarks come the day after the FOMC released minutes from the Dec. 17-18 meeting that showed other members also were concerned with how inflation is running, though most expressed confidence it will drift back towards the 2%, eventually getting there in 2027. The Fed sliced a full percentage point off its key borrowing rate from September through December.

In fact, other Fed speakers this week provided views contrary to that of Bowman, who is generally regarded as one of the committee’s more hawkish members, meaning she prefers a more aggressive approach to controlling inflation that includes higher interest rates.

In a speech delivered Wednesday in Paris, Governor Christopher Waller had a more optimistic take on inflation, saying that imputed, or estimated, prices that feed into inflation data are keeping rates high, while observed prices are showing moderation. He expects “further reductions will be appropriate” in the Fed’s main policy rate, which currently sits in a range between 4.25%-4.5%.

Earlier Thursday, regional presidents Susan Collins of Boston and Patrick Harker of Philadelphia both expressed confidence the Fed will be able to lower rates this year, if it a slower pace than previously thought. The FOMC at the December meeting priced in the equivalent of two quarter-point cuts this year, as opposed to the four expected at the the September meeting.

Still, as a governor Bowman is a permanent voter on the FOMC and will get a say this year on policy. She is also considered one of the favorites to be named the vice chair of supervision for the banking industry after President-elect Donald Trump takes office later this month.

Speaking of the incoming administration, Bowman advised her colleagues to refrain from “prejudging” what Trump might do on issues such as tariffs and immigration. The December minutes indicated concerns from officials over what the initiatives could mean for the economy.

At the same time, Bowman expressed concern about loosening policy too much. She cited strong stock market gains and rising Treasury yields as indications that interest rates were restraining economic activity and tamping down inflation.

“In light of these considerations, I continue to prefer a cautious and gradual approach to adjusting policy,” she said.

Finance

Slower pace ahead for rate cuts

Published

2 days ago

January 8, 2025

Business Finance News

Federal Reserve officials at their December meeting expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump‘s policies could have, indicating that they would be moving more slowly on interest rate cuts because of the uncertainty, minutes released Wednesday showed.

Without calling out Trump by name, the meeting summary featured at least four mentions about the impact that changes in immigration and trade policy could have on the U.S. economy.

Since Trump’s November election victory, he has signaled plans for aggressive, punitive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada as well as the other U.S. trading partners. In addition, he intends to pursue more deregulation and mass deportations.

However, the extent of what Trump’s actions will be and specifically how they will be directed creates a band of ambiguity about what is ahead, which Federal Open Market Committee members said would require caution.

“Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased,” the minutes said. “As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.”

FOMC members voted to lower the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%.

However, they also reduced their outlook for expected cuts in 2025 to two from four in the previous estimate at September’s meeting, assuming quarter-point increments. The Fed cut a full point off the funds rate since September, and current market pricing is indicating just one or two more moves lower this year.

Minutes indicated that the pace of cuts ahead indeed is likely to be slower.

“In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants indicated that the Committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing,” the document said.

Moreover, members agreed that “the policy rate was now significantly closer to its neutral value than when the Committee commenced policy easing in September. In addition, many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters.”

Those conditions include inflation readings that remain above the Fed’s 2% annual target, a solid pace of consumer spending, a stable labor market and otherwise strong economic activity in which gross domestic product had been growing at an above-trend clip through 2024.

“A substantial majority of participants observed that, at the current juncture, with its policy stance still meaningfully restrictive, the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity and inflation, including the economy’s responses to the Committee’s earlier policy actions,” the minutes said.

Officials stressed that future policy moves will be dependent on how the data unfolds and are not on a set schedule. The Fed’s preferred gauge showed core inflation running at 2.4% rate in November, and 2.8% when including food and energy prices, compared with the prior year. The Fed target’s inflation at 2%.

In documents handed out at the meeting, most officials indicated that while they see inflation gravitating down to 2%, they don’t forecast that happening until 2027 and expect that near-term risks are to the upside.

At his news conference following the Dec. 18 rate decision, Chair Jerome Powell likened the situation to “driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down.”

That statement reflected that mindset of meeting participants, many of whom “observed that the current high degree of uncertainty made it appropriate for the Committee to take a gradual approach as it moved toward a neutral policy stance,” the minutes said.

The “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations showed that they expect two more rate cuts in 2026 and possibly another one or two after, ultimately taking the long-run fed funds rate down to 3%.