Inflation in the U.K. eased to 3.2% in March, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.
That was slightly higher than the forecast from economists polled by Reuters of 3.1%, but was down from 3.4% in February.
Food prices provided the biggest downward drag on the headline rate, the ONS said, while motor fuels pushed it higher.
The core figure, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 4.2%, compared with a projection of 4.1%. Services inflation, a key watcher for U.K. monetary policymakers, declined from 6.1% to 6%.
This week, investors have been monitoring signs of a cooling U.K. labor market, with unemployment unexpectedly rising to 4.2% in the period between December and February. Wage growth excluding bonuses meanwhile dipped from 6.1% in January to 6% in February.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday said he saw “strong evidence” that higher interest rates were working to tame the rate of price rises, which has cooled from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022. The central bank’s own forecast is for inflation to “briefly drop” to its 2% target in the spring before increasing slightly.
But a higher-than-expected March core print firmly above 4% is likely to increase speculation that inflation is proving stickier than recent forecasts have suggested, and the timing of the first interest rate cuts may be moving further down the line.
Market pricing currently suggests the BOE will implement two interest rate cuts in 2024 from its current rate of 5.25%, starting in August or September. Uncertainty over this timeline has now increased, given signs of continued inflationary pressures in the U.S.
‘The U.S. direction’
Camille de Courcel, head of European rates strategy at BNP Paribas, on Wednesday told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” that the latest data showed that the U.K. was “going in the U.S. direction” and provided a risk to her call for a June rate cut from the BOE.
While labor data surprised to the downside, the ONS has cautioned its month-on-month figures may be skewed by methodological issues. That means the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee will be far more focused on upside surprises on wage growth and services, de Courcel said.
The British pound moved higher against both the U.S. dollar and euro following the announcement, trading up 0.1% against the greenback at $1.243 and 0.15% stronger against the euro at 1.1718.
U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, who is gearing up for a national election this year, said on social media platform X that the inflation data was “welcome news.”
AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).
AS IN MOST marriages of convenience, Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy junior make unusual bedfellows. One enjoys junk food, hates exercise and loves oil. The other talks of clean food, getting America moving again and wants to eliminate oils of all sorts (from seed oil to Mr Trump’s beloved “liquid gold”). One has called the covid-19 vaccine a “miracle”, the other is a long-term vaccine sceptic. Yet on November 14th Mr Trump announced that Mr Kennedy was his pick for secretary of health and human services (HHS).
Bank of England in the City of London on 6th November 2024 in London, United Kingdom. The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the primary central business district CBD of London. The City of London is widely referred to simply as the City is also colloquially known as the Square Mile. (photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images)
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images
The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
That was below the expectations of economists polled by Reuters who forecast 0.2% gross domestic product growth on the previous three months of the year.
It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%.
The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government’s tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year’s time. Policymakers also noted that the government’s fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts.
The outcome of the recent U.S. election has fostered much uncertainty about the global economic impact of another term from President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump’s proposed tariffs are expected to be widely inflationary and hit the European economy hard, some analysts have said such measures could provide opportunities for the British economy.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave little away last week on the bank’s views of Trump’s tariff agenda, but he did reference risks around global fragmentation.
“Let’s wait and see where things get to. I’m not going to prejudge what might happen, what might not happen,” he told reporters during a press briefing.
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