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US Presidential election: live results

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On November 5th America will pick its next president, as well as the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. The Economist will publish live results and analysis covering every race. Check back here soon after first polls close at 6pm EST / 11pm GMT to see in real-time how many votes Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are picking up, and which of them will win the White House, as well as which party will control the two chambers of Congress.

Before then, this page provides a guide for what to look out for ahead of the election. Elsewhere, our daily updated election forecasts calculate each presidential candidate’s chances of winning, and who might take the House and the Senate. Our poll tracker rounds up the latest presidential polls. And The US in brief, our daily update delivered by newsletter, gives you all the election stories that matter.

What to watch

This year, given large numbers of people have voted early, many expect the counting will be slow. Officials, however, insist that ballot tallying will be faster than in previous years. The results could be known just a few hours after polls close across the country—as they were for seven of the past ten elections (see chart). Or they could take days to become clear.

The first states to conclude voting will be on the east coast. Six states, including the key battleground of Georgia, will finish voting statewide at 7pm EST. By 8pm, 19 more states will have joined them and a flurry of data will be published. Readers should exercise caution: little of substance will be revealed at this stage of the night, unless the election is a landslide.

In some states, where one candidate is heavily favoured, the election result will be called almost immediately. Unless there is a major upset or a striking trend, these calls may not say much about the election overall. The absence of a call may be more informative: it may indicate that an expected landslide has not happened, for instance.

The final result will probably come down to seven key states. Of those, Georgia and Michigan may be the fastest to count. North Carolina is also traditionally quick to count but may experience disruption due to Hurricane Helene.

Others could well be slower. Pennsylvania will not start processing millions of postal ballots until the morning of election day. Arizona and Nevada, in the west, finish voting later that day and take longer to count their mail-in ballots, which are popular in both states. Nevada accepts and counts ballots which arrive after election day, too (although these are unlikely to flip the state).

Read more about what to watch on the night, and in the days that follow.

What are the candidates’ paths to victory?

Pennsylvania is the most important state for both candidates. (Mr Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but it flipped to Joe Biden in 2020.) According to our forecast model, as of November 4th, Ms Harris wins in 92% of our simulations when she takes the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes; Mr Trump wins in 88%.

Mr Trump has even better odds when he wins Michigan (95%), but he has more alternative routes to the presidency without Michigan than without Pennsylvania. Other swing states are less influential: Ms Harris and Mr Trump win the election in only 71% and 67% of simulations, respectively, when they win Nevada, a state with only six electoral votes.

The most likely outcome—occurring in 19% of our simulated elections on November 4th—is that Mr Trump will win all seven swing states and go on to win the presidency. The second-most likely is the exact opposite: our model gave Ms Harris a 9% chance of sweeping the seven. The third would give all of the swing states except Nevada to Mr Trump—that would be a repeat of the 2016 result. But based on all of our model’s scenarios, the race is a toss-up: neither candidate has a lead big enough to offset the kind of polling errors seen in previous presidential elections.

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The unemployment rate for Black women fell in December

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A jobseeker holds flyers during the New York Public Library’s annual Bronx Job Fair & Expo at the the Bronx Library Center in the Bronx borough of New York, US, on Friday, Sept. 6, 2024.

Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The unemployment rate fell for Black women in December, following an alarming increase in the figure for November.

Overall, nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in December, rising 256,000 in the month and topping economists’ prediction for a gain of 155,000, per Dow Jones. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% in a sign of a resilient labor market. The data fueled the belief that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates much less than anticipated this year.

For Black women, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% in December. That’s down from 5.9% in November, when the jobless rate rose nearly a percentage point for the cohort. The labor force participation rate, which tracks the population employed or seeking work, inched up to 62.4%.

Among Black workers overall, the unemployment rate also declined in December, slipping to 6.1%. That compares to a rate of 6.4% in November and 5.7% in October.

“There were some concerns about the Black unemployment rate going up,” said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, referring to November’s uptick. “It’s still significantly higher than for other groups – and that’s still a concern – but nothing in this report jumps out as particularly problematic.”

Black men also made strides, with the jobless rate declining to 5.6% in December from 6% a month earlier. The labor force participation rate for the cohort inched lower to 68.2% last month from 68.7%.

Hispanic men also saw their unemployment rate improve in December, ticking down to 4% from 4.4% as labor force participation improved.

Though the unemployment rate among Hispanic women inched up to 5.3% last month from 5.2%, Gould noted that this shift is within the margin of error. “There’s a lot of volatility with the data,” she said. “I would say that things mostly held steady.”

By comparison, the jobless rate fell to 3.6% in December among white workers overall. That’s down from 3.8%. Among white men, the unemployment rate slipped to 3.3% last month from 3.5%, but the figure held steady at 3.4% for white women.

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Here’s where the jobs are for December 2024 – in one chart

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December’s job report marked yet another month of stronger-than-expected growth, with gains coming from many different parts of the U.S. economy.

Last month, health care and social assistance jobs saw the largest gains for a third consecutive month, adding 69,500 to payrolls, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Including private education, as some economists do, the health care group’s growth would have risen by 80,000.

Retail trade, which added 43,400 jobs, and leisure and hospitality, up 43,000, scored the second- and third-largest increases last month. Retail trade jobs are in or outside a store, from infomercials to street vendors to vending machines, can sell to consumers or other businesses and involve after-sale services, such as repair and installation, the BLS says.

Government jobs rounded out the top four, posting growth of 33,000 in December.

“Recently, job growth has been very narrowly concentrated in government and health care,” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist, told CNBC. “Now, it seems like perhaps it’s broadening out.”

Retail growth, a sharp turnaround from steep losses in November, was bolstered by employment increases across key categories. Notably, clothing, clothing accessories, shoe and jewelry retailers saw an increase of 23,000 positions, while general merchandise retailers and health and personal care retailers grew by 13,000 and 7,000 jobs, respectively, according to BLS data.

That rise is “not just a blip,” Pollak said, adding that it reflects other data that shows an improving backdrop in the sector.

For instance, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ December Texas Retail Outlook Survey showed an acceleration in retail sales activity. The sales index, which measures state retail activity, hit its highest level since late 2021.

“Retailers are more upbeat on 2025 and on the backs of a strong consumer,” Pollak continued. “We’ll probably see more movement in the housing market coming soon.”

In contrast to the strength in retail trade, manufacturing – which saw sizable growth in November – led the declines for December, losing 13,000 jobs.

Additionally, mining and logging, and wholesale trade reversed course last month from November. After seeing slight increases two months ago, mining and logging employment dropped by 3,000, while wholesale trade slumped even more, losing 3,500 positions.

Professional and business services, plus financial activities continued to be bright spots. Those two groups were among the nine in 13 sectors that added jobs last month.

“We’re seeing improvement in total vehicle sales, Americans are making big ticket purchases again, [and] businesses are buying vehicles too,” Pollak said. “These trends have been picking up over the last few months; they were taking a while to filter into the labor market, but this report suggests … perhaps a recovery is starting to take hold.”

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Jobs report December 2024:

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Job growth was much stronger than expected in December, possibly providing the Federal Reserve less incentive to cut interest rates this year.

Nonfarm payrolls surged by 256,000 for the month, up from 212,000 in November and above the 155,000 forecast from the Dow Jones consensus, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, one-tenth of a point below expectations. An alternative measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons moved down to 7.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point and the lowest since June 2024.

Stock market futures were negative after the report’s release while Treasury yields soared.

The report brings to a close a year in which employment grew each month, though inconsistently and at times raising questions over whether a recession loomed. However, the final two months showed a labor market still operating at strength as the Fed contemplates its next moves on monetary policy.

One area that Fed officials have stressed to not be a source of inflation is the labor market, and wages grew slightly less than expected.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month, which was in line with forecasts, but the 12-month gain of 3.9% was slightly below the outlook and indicative that wage inflation at least is becoming less of a factor. The average work week again held steady at 34.3 hours.

Job growth came from the familiar sources of health care (up 46,000), leisure and hospitality (43,000) and government (33,000).

Retail also saw a sizeable gain, up 43,000 after losing 29,000 in November heading into the holiday shopping season. The sector saw payroll growth of 2.2 million for the full year, down nearly one-third from the 3 million gain in 2023.

Revisions for prior months were less substantial than has been the recent trend. The October count saw an upward change of 7,000 to 43,000, while the November number was cut by 15,000 from the prior estimate.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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