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Wait, does America suddenly have a record number of bees?

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Where in the unholy heck did all these bees come from?!

After almost two decades of relentless colony collapse coverage and years of grieving suspiciously clean windshields, we were stunned to run the numbers on the new Census of Agriculture (otherwise known as that wonderful time every five years where the government counts all the llamas): America’s honeybee population has rocketed to an all-time high.

We’ve added almost a million bee colonies in the past five years. We now have 3.8 million, the census shows. Since 2007, the first census after alarming bee die-offs began in 2006, the honeybee has been the fastest-growing livestock segment in the country! And that doesn’t count feral honeybees, which may outnumber their captive cousins several times over.

This prompted so many questions. Does this mean the insect apocalypse is over? Are pollinators saved? Did we unravel the web of maladies known as colony collapse disorder?

But let’s start with the most important question: Is there, in fact, a bee boom?

We consider the census from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to be the gold standard, but another data set from those quantitative crusaders, the annual honey report, actually shows bee colonies losing ground.

Agriculture Department economist Stan Daberkow, who helped write the definitive comparison of these sources, retired in 2008 but continues to follow the beekeeping business closely. When we tracked him down, he dove headfirst into our data mystery, sending us theories and exchanging emails at 1:35 a.m. and beyond.

Like any source produced by humans and constrained by budgets, Daberkow said, the honey report and Census of Agriculture have their limitations. The honey report focuses on operations with five or more hives, while the census includes every farm in the country. In this case, “farm” means any plot of land that sells at least $1,000 of agriculture products in a year, a measure that could include more hobbyists and dabblers in the buzz biz.

Inflation also increases the share of beekeepers who qualify for the census: The Agriculture Department’s $1,000 farm definition hasn’t changed since 1975. So as honey prices, pollination fees, hive prices and other sources of bee revenue rise, more hobbyists will magically transmogrify into “farmers.” Some of those new farmers, plus others discovered through census outreach efforts, might get added to the honey report. So next year’s honey report could paint a sunnier picture.

Daberkow said he was somewhat “leery” of the latest census data. Given less-than-ideal recent honey prices, major producers shouldn’t have much incentive to expand their operations. “Any growth would likely have come in smaller operations, a demographic USDA goes to great lengths to track down for the census,” he said.

Sure enough, the census shows the number of operations with any bee colonies has ascended far faster than honey production or bee-colony counts — about 160 percent since 2007.

Much of the explosion of small producers came in just one state: Texas. The Lone Star State has gone from having the sixth-most bee operations in the country to being so far ahead of anyone else that it out-bees the bottom 21 states combined.

Our data showed the biggest increases in north Texas, a region not traditionally considered a honey hotbed. So we started dialing beekeepers to ask what was going on. The first thing we learned? Our job would be half as hard and twice as joyful if all our sources were Texas bee boosters. Every last one seemed genuinely thrilled to pick up the phone.

Consider John Talbert of Sabine Creek Honey Farm, age 85. A past president of both the Association for Facilities Engineering and the Texas Beekeepers Association, Talbert takes a spoonful of honey before bed each night and brings a jar of wildflower honey to every politician he meets. He does the same for his doctor and his dentist.

“That’s so small that it couldn’t be considered a bribe,” Talbert told us. “It’s just a gesture of good faith!”

Talbert is such an infectious evangelist, we suspect that he and his many protégés could have propelled the great American bee resurgence by enthusiasm alone. But the Texas beekeepers all pointed to one clear reason for the bee boom — and that reason answered the phone on our second try.

Dennis Herbert wouldn’t strike you as a political mover and shaker. A retired wildlife biologist, Herbert, 75, boasts of no fancy connections and drops no names. But in 2011, after keeping bees for a few years, he went to the Texas legislature and laid out a simple hypothetical.

“You own 200 acres on the other side of the fence from me, and you raise cotton for a living. You get your ag valuation and cheaper taxes on your property. I have 10 acres on the other side of the fence and raise bees, and I don’t receive my ag valuation. And yet my bees are flying across the fence and pollinating your crops and making a living for you,” Herbert said. “Well, I just never thought that quite fair.”

In 2012, the Herbert Hypothetical gave rise to a new law: Your plot of five to 20 acres now qualifies for agriculture tax breaks if you keep bees on it for five years.

Over the next few years, all 254 Texas counties adopted bee rules requiring, for example, six hives on five acres plus another hive for every 2.5 acres beyond that to qualify for the tax break. Herbert keeps a spreadsheet of the regulations and drives across the state to educate bee-curious landowners.

Herbert himself doesn’t qualify for the exemption. His modest homestead in the tiny town of Salado, about an hour north of Austin, isn’t big enough. But, he says, “more bees provide more pollination, and so I get to eat a little better. I get my watermelon during the summer. And that doesn’t make me anybody special at all. I just, I like my watermelon.”

While Herbert never intended it, Texas bee exemptions have become big business. That has created an opportunity for Gary Barber, a former newspaper photographer.

Barber got bit by the bee bug after he left the Dallas Morning News in 2014. His firm, Honey Bees Unlimited, now leases and runs 1,500 hives for 170 clients in eight counties north of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. As developers split the once-rural countryside into five- and 10-acre ranchettes, he’s signing up new clients faster than he can split hives to place on their land.

“It’s crazy, the blanket of bees over these counties!” Barber said. “Honestly, it’s not bee country: You’re not going to make it like a traditional beekeeper. But it’s really great because … now we’ve got pollinators all around!”

Barber has risen to become vice president of the Texas Beekeepers Association and promotes the industry alongside Herbert — especially every other year when the Texas legislature is in session.

“There’s usually some legislator that wants to mess with [the tax break], and we’ve got to go tell them why it’s great,” Barber told us. “And luckily, while our two political parties don’t agree on much, they all seem to want to save bees.”

These Texans helped explain the rise in beekeeping operations. And they built our trust in the Census of Agriculture as a purveyor of weird truth. But even with its army of small producers, Texas still ranks only sixth in the number of actual bee colonies. To find the true core of the bee boom, we had to make like the Village People and go west.

When the census was taken in December 2022, California had more than four times as many bees as any other state. We emailed pollination expert Brittney Goodrich at the University of California at Davis, who explained that pollinating the California almond crop “demands most of the honeybee colonies in the U.S. each year.”

Every February and March, something like 170 million almond trees unite in one of Earth’s great synchronized acts of sexual reproduction — made possible by the migration of the bees.

Pollination — not honey prices — has been the true rocket booster strapped to the back of the modern beekeeping industry. And almond pollination is responsible for $4 of every $5 spent on bee fertility assistance in the United States, according to NASS.

America’s almond acreage has more than doubled since 2007 as the world’s food firms race to stuff the nut into every conceivable granola mix, nut butter and milk substitute. So it seems reasonable to assume the honeybee population doubled along with it. After all, those almonds aren’t pollinating themselves.

(Editor’s note: Some of those almonds are, in fact, pollinating themselves. But self-pollinating trees remain a small minority.)

So the situation on the ground seems to confirm the census: We probably do have a record number of honeybees.

Sadly, however, this does not mean we’ve defeated colony collapse. One major citizen-science project found that beekeepers lost almost half of their colonies in the year ending in April 2023, the second-highest loss rate on record.

For now, we’re making up for it with aggressive management. The Texans told us that they were splitting their hives more often, replacing queens as often as every year and churning out bee colonies faster than the mites, fungi and diseases can take them down.

But this may not be good news for bees in general.

“It is absolutely not a good thing for native pollinators,” said Eliza Grames, an entomologist at Binghamton University, who noted that domesticated honeybees are a threat to North America’s 4,000 native bee species, about 40 percent of which are vulnerable to extinction.

Grames helps lead EntoGEM, a collaborative effort to sift through more than 120,000 often-obscure scholarly articles worldwide in search of hidden insect-population data. Grames said the consensus holds that pollinators, like all insects, are in decline — losing probably 1 to 2 percent a year.

(“Pollinators” is not a synonym for “bees,” by the way. Legions of insects have evolved to help native plants with long-distance reproduction, including butterflies, moths, beetles, flies, midges and gnats. Many aren’t even fully known to science, so we can’t say with certainty they’re declining. But optimism would seem misplaced.)

Many of the same forces collapsing managed beehives also decimate their native cousins, only the natives don’t usually have entire industries and governments pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into supporting them. Grames compared the situation to birds, another sector in which maladies common in farmed animals, such as bird flu, threaten their wild cousins.

“You wouldn’t be like, ‘Hey, birds are doing great. We’ve got a huge biomass of chickens!’ It’s kind of the same thing with honeybees,” she said. “They’re domesticated. They’re essentially livestock.”

Mace Vaughan leads pollinator and agricultural biodiversity at Xerces, an insect-conservation outfit that has grown from five to nearly 80 employees during his 24 years there. Vaughan says it’s not a zero-sum game: For native pollinators to win, honeybees don’t have to lose. If we focus not on tax breaks, but on limiting the use of insecticide and promoting habitats such as meadows, hedgerows and wetlands, all pollinators can come out ahead.

“We’ve got really well-meaning people who are keeping honeybees because, ‘Oh, I’ve got to save the bees.’ That’s not the way you save the bees!” Vaughan told us. “The way you support both honeybees and beekeepers — and the way you save native pollinators — is to go out there and create beautiful flower-rich habitat on your farm or your garden.”

Howdy! The Department of Data seeks your quantitative queries. What are you curious about: Should we pay blood donors? When does spring really start? What’s the best time to get your flu shot? Just ask!

If your question inspires a column, we’ll send you an official Department of Data button and ID card. This week we owe one to ace news researcher Razzan Nakhlawi, who helped us track down several bee-data experts.

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There’s a key change coming to 401(k) catch-up contributions in 2025

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Many Americans face a retirement savings shortfall. However, setting aside more money could get easier for some older workers in 2025.

Enacted by Congress in 2022, the Secure Act 2.0 ushered in several retirement system improvements, including updates to 401(k) plans, required withdrawals, 529 college savings plans and more.

While some Secure 2.0 changes have already happened, another key change for “max savers,” will begin in 2025, according to Dave Stinnett, Vanguard’s head of strategic retirement consulting.

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Some 4 in 10 American workers are behind in retirement planning and savings, according to a CNBC survey, which polled roughly 6,700 adults in early August.

But changes to 401(k) catch-up contributions — a higher limit for workers age 50 and older — could soon help certain savers, experts say. Here’s what to know.

Higher 401(k) catch-up contributions

Employees can now defer up to $23,000 into 401(k) plans for 2024, with an extra $7,500 for workers age 50 and older.

But starting in 2025, workers aged 60 to 63 can boost annual 401(k) catch-up contributions to $10,000 — or 150% of the catch-up limit — whichever is greater. The IRS hasn’t yet unveiled the catch-up contribution limit for 2025.  

“This can be a great way for people to boost their retirement savings,” said certified financial planner Jamie Bosse, senior advisor at CGN Advisors in Manhattan, Kansas.

An estimated 15% of eligible workers made catch-up contributions in 2023, according to Vanguard’s 2024 How America Saves report.

Those making catch-up contributions tend to be higher earners, Vanguard’s Stinnett explained. But they could still have “real concerns about being able to retire comfortably.”

More than half of 401(k) participants with income above $150,000 and nearly 40% with an account balance of more than $250,000 made catch-up contributions in 2023, the Vanguard report found.

Roth catch-up contributions

Another Secure 2.0 change will remove the upfront tax break on catch-up contributions for higher earners by only allowing the deposits in after-tax Roth accounts.

The change applies to catch-up deposits to 401(k), 403(b) or 457(b) plans who earned more than $145,000 from a single company the prior year. The amount will adjust for inflation annually. 

However, IRS in August 2023 delayed the implementation of that rule to January 2026. That means workers can still make pretax 401(k) catch-up contributions through 2025, regardless of income.

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Holiday shoppers plan to spend more, while taking on debt this season

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Increase in consumer holiday spending expected this year, says Mastercard's Michelle Meyer

Americans often splurge on gifts during the holidays.

This year, holiday spending from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 is expected to increase to a record total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Even as credit card debt tops $1.14 trillion, holiday shoppers expect to spend, on average, $1,778, up 8% compared to last year, Deloitte’s holiday retail survey found.

Meanwhile, 28% of holiday shoppers still haven’t paid off the gifts they purchased for their loved ones last year, according to another holiday spending report by NerdWallet

How shoppers pay for holiday gifts

Heading into the peak holiday shopping season, 74% of shoppers plan to use credit cards to make their purchases, NerdWallet found.

Another 28% will tap savings to buy holiday gifts and 16% will lean on buy now, pay later services. NerdWallet polled more than 1,700 adults in September.  

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Buy now, pay later is now one of the fastest-growing categories in consumer finance and is only expected to become more popular in the months ahead, according to the most recent data from Adobe. Adobe forecasts BNPL spending will peak on Cyber Monday with a new single-day-record of $993 million.

However, buy now, pay later loans can be especially hard to track, making it easier for more consumers to get in over their heads, some experts have cautioned — even more than credit cards, which are simpler to account for, despite sky-high interest rates.

The problem with credit cards and BNPL

To be sure, credit cards are one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. The average credit card charges more than 20% — near an all-time high.

Alternatively, the option to pay in installments can make financial sense, especially at 0%. 

And yet, buy now, pay later loans “are just another form of credit, disguised as something for free,” said Howard Dvorkin, a certified public accountant and the chairman of Debt.com.

The more BNPL accounts open at once, the more prone consumers become to overspending, missed or late payments and poor credit history, other research shows.

If a consumer misses a payment, there could be late fees, deferred interest or other penalties, depending on the lender. In some cases, those interest rates can be as high as 30%, rivaling the highest credit card charges. 

“This is just another way for financers to put their hands in the pocket of consumers,” Dvorkin said. “It’s a trojan horse.”

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Here’s why the U.S. retirement system isn’t among the world’s best

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The U.S. retirement system doesn’t get high marks relative to other nations.

In fact, the U.S. got a C+ grade and ranked No. 29 out of 48 global pension systems in 2024, according to the annual Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, released Tuesday. It analyzed both public and private sources of retirement funds, like Social Security and 401(k) plans.

A similar index compiled by Natixis Investment Management puts the U.S. at No. 22 out of 44 nations this year. Its position has declined from a decade ago, when it ranked No. 18.

“I think [a C+ grade] would describe a rating where there is a lot of room for improvement,” said Christine Mahoney, global retirement leader at Mercer, a consulting firm.

The Netherlands placed No. 1, followed by Iceland, Denmark and Israel, respectively, which all received “A” grades, according to Mercer. Singapore, Australia, Finland and Norway got a B+.

Fourteen nations — Chile, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Uruguay, New Zealand, Belgium, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, France, Germany, Croatia and Portugal — got a B.

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Of course, retirement systems differ since they address a nation’s unique economies, social and cultural norms, politics and history, according to the Mercer report. However, there are certain traits that can generally determine how well older citizens fare financially, the report found.

The U.S. system is often referred to as a three-legged stool, consisting of Social Security, workplace retirement plans and individual savings.

The lackluster standing by the U.S. in the world is largely due to a sizable gap in the share of people who have access to a workplace retirement plan, and for the ample opportunities for “leakage” of savings from accounts before retirement, Mahoney said.

Employers aren’t required to offer a retirement plan like a pension or 401(k) plan to workers. About 72% of workers in the private sector had access to one in March 2024, and about half (53%) participated, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  

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“The people who have [a plan], it’s probably pretty good on average, but you have a lot of people who have nothing,” Mahoney said.

By contrast, some of the highest-ranked countries like the Netherlands “cover essentially all workers in the country,” said Graham Pearce, Mercer’s global defined benefit segment leader.

Additionally, top-rated nations generally have greater restrictions relative to the U.S. on how much cash citizens can withdraw before retirement, Pearce explained.

American workers can withdraw their 401(k) savings when they switch jobs, for example.

About 40% of workers who leave a job cash out “prematurely” each year, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. A separate academic study from 2022 examined more than 160,000 U.S. employees who left their jobs from 2014 to 2016, and found that about 41% cashed out at least some of their 401(k) — and 85% completely drained their balance.

Employers are also legally allowed to cash out small 401(k) balances and send workers a check.

While the U.S. might offer more flexibility to people who need to tap their funds in case of emergencies, for example, this so-called leakage also reduces the amount of savings they have available in old age, experts said.

“If you’re someone who moves through jobs, has low savings rates and leakage, it makes it difficult to build your own retirement nest egg,” said David Blanchett, head of retirement research at PGIM, Prudential’s investment management arm.

Social Security is considered a major income source for most older Americans, providing the majority of their retirement income for a significant portion of the population over 65 years old.

To that point, about nine out of 10 people aged 65 and older were receiving a Social Security benefit as of June 30, according to the Social Security Administration.

Social Security benefits are generally tied to a worker’s wage and work history, Blanchett said. For example, the amount is pegged to a worker’s 35-highest years of pay.

While benefits are progressive, meaning lower earners generally replace a bigger share of their pre-retirement paychecks than higher earners, Social Security’s minimum benefit is lesser than other nations, like those in Scandinavia, with public retirement programs, Blanchett said.

“It’s less of a safety net,” he said.

“There’s something to be said that, as a public pension benefit, increasing the minimum benefit for all retirees would strengthen the retirement resiliency for all Americans,” Blanchett said.

That said, policymakers are trying to resolve some of these issues.

For example, 17 states have established so-called auto-IRA programs in a bid to close the coverage gap, according to the Georgetown University Center for Retirement Initiatives.

These programs generally require employers who don’t offer a workplace retirement plan to automatically enroll workers into the state plan and facilitate payroll deduction.

A recent federal law known as Secure 2.0 also expanded aspects of the retirement system. For example, it made more part-time workers eligible to participate in a 401(k) and raised the dollar threshold for employers to cash out balances for departing workers.

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