CEO of Meta and Facebook Mark Zuckerberg, Lauren Sanchez, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attend the inauguration ceremony before Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th US President in the US Capitol Rotunda in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Via Reuters
During Mettler-Toledo‘s earnings call earlier this month, executives found themselves fielding a barrage of questions about one key topic: tariffs.
The Ohio-based maker of industrial scales and laboratory equipment had already opened the call by breaking down the expected impact from President Donald Trump’s still-evolving trade policy. But when the event transitioned to the question-and-answer portion, the inquiries from analysts seeking further detail about potential tariffs were constant.
“Uncertainty remains across many of our core markets and the global economy,” Finance Chief Shawn Vadala said on the Feb. 7 call. “Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and include the potential for new tariffs that we have not factored into our guidance.”
Mettler-Toledo’s experience wasn’t unique. America’s largest companies are getting inundated with queries about how or if Trump’s salvo of promises on issues ranging from international trade to immigration and diversity will alter businesses.
A CNBC analysis shows multiple core themes tied to Trump’s policies are popping up on the earnings calls of S&P 500-listed companies at an increasing clip. Take “tariff.” Just weeks into the new year, the frequency of the word and its variations on earnings calls hit its highest level since 2020 — the last full year of Trump’s first term.
On top of that, new acronyms and phrases, like the “Gulf of America” or “DOGE,” have found their way into these meetings as the business community assesses what Trump’s return to power means for them.
Curiously, Trump himself wasn’t racking up mentions on these calls. Many uses of the word “trump” in transcripts reviewed by CNBC referred to the verb, rather than the president.
FILE PHOTO: A logo sign outside of a facility occupied by Mettler Toledo in Columbia, Maryland on March 8, 2020.
Kristoffer Tripplaar | Sipa USA | AP
Still, a review of call transcripts shows how key words tied to Trump’s policies have quickly become commonplace. With the first earnings season of 2025 more than 75% complete, the comments offer an early glimpse into how these companies view the new administration.
Tariffs
One of the most talked about policies has been Trump’s tariff plans. The president briefly implemented — and then postponed — 25% taxes on imports to the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. He also separately slapped China with a 10% levy and imposed aluminum and steel tariffs. Then, on Thursday, he discussed a plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on other trading partners on a country-by-country basis.
Given the uncertainty, it’s no surprise tariffs are a hot topic. The topic has come up on more than 190 calls held by S&P 500 companies in 2025, putting it on track to see the highest share in half of a decade.
The frequency picked up late last year as Trump’s return to the White House became clear. About half of calls in 2024 that mentioned forms of the word took place in the fourth quarter, according to a CNBC analysis of data from FactSet, a market research service.
“Studying tariffs has been at the top of the list of things that we’ve been doing,” said Marathon Petroleum CEO Maryann Mannen on the energy company’s Feb. 4 earnings call.
Several companies said they were not factoring potential impacts from these levies into their guidance, citing uncertainty about what orders will actually go into place. Others just aren’t sure: At Martin Marietta Materials, CFO James Nickolas said the supplier’s profits could either benefit or take a hit from tariffs depending on what form ultimately takes effect.
While Generac didn’t calculate how these import taxes could affect future performance, CEO Aaron Jagdfeld said the generator maker is ready to mitigate the financial hit by reducing costs elsewhere and raising its prices. Camden Property Trust CEO Richard Campo said a company analysis shows proposed tariffs would push up costs for materials from Canada and Mexico like lumber and electrical boxes. These comments offer support to the idea that Trump’s tariffs may drive up consumer prices and fan inflation.
Aaron Jagdfeld, CEO, Generac
Scott Mlyn | CNBC
Zebra Technologies CFO Nathan Winters said price increases could help mitigate profit pressure. Auto parts maker BorgWarner, meanwhile, anticipates another year of declining demand in certain markets, which CFO Craig Aaron attributed in part to potential headwinds from these levies.
Cisco‘s R. Scott Herren agreed with other executives on the lack of clarity, describing the tariff situation as “dynamic” on the networking equipment maker’s earnings call last week. Still, the CFO said the company has planned for some variation of Trump’s tariff proposals to take effect and is expecting costs to increase as a result.
“We’ve game planned out several scenarios and steps we could take depending on what actually goes into effect,” he said.
Immigration
The topic of immigration, meanwhile, has already come up on the highest share of calls since 2017.
Trump has promised mass deportations of undocumented immigrants during his second term in office. Cracking down on immigration has been a core component of Trump’s political messaging since he ran in part to “build the wall” between the U.S. and Mexico for his first term. Critics assert that his plans would shock the labor market and could result in higher inflation.
Immigration mentions tend to tick up during the first year of a new administration, CNBC data shows. But 2025 has surpassed the first years of Joe Biden’s presidency and Barack Obama’s second term, underscoring Trump’s role in elevating the issue within U.S. businesses.
Some companies grouped immigration with tariffs as drivers of broader unpredictability within the economy. Nicholas Pinchuk, CEO of toolmaker Snap-On, described anecdotes of strong demand for repair services from its clients, but said they were still stressed by red flags in the economic backdrop.
“It’s clear the techs are in a good position. But that doesn’t make them immune to the macro uncertainty around them: ongoing wars, immigration disputes, lingering inflation,” Pinchuk said. “Although the election is in the rear mirror and the new team may be more focused on business expansion, there’s a rapid fire of new initiatives. … It’s hard not to be uncertain about what’s up.”
Firms in a variety of sectors took questions about what changes in the composition of America’s population would mean. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all fielded questions about whether a slowdown in immigration would hurt demand for certain phone plans. Michael Manelis, operations chief at apartment manager Equity Residential, said in response to an immigration-related inquiry that it hasn’t seen any upticks in lease breaks from tenants being deported.
In the Southern California market, real estate developer Prologis CEO Hamid Moghadam said deportations can decrease the pool of workers and, in turn, drive up employment costs in the region. That can exacerbate pricing pressures already expected as the Los Angeles community rebuilds in the wake of last month’s wildfires.
Employees of Tyson Foods
Greg Smith | Corbis SABA | Getty Images
Other businesses insisted deportations wouldn’t create labor shortages for their operations because all of their workers are legally authorized. One such company, chicken producer Tyson Foods, said it hasn’t had factories visited by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or seen any declines in worker attendance.
“We’re confident that we’ll be able to continue to successfully run our business,” CEO Donnie King said on Feb. 3.
DOGE and the Gulf
Topics that gained newfound relevance with Trump’s return to office have also already started emerging.
DOGE — the acronym for the new Department of Government Efficiency led by Tesla CEO Elon Musk — has been mentioned on more than 15 calls, as of Friday morning. This department has put Wall Street on alert as investors wonder if contracts between public companies and federal agencies could be on the chopping block with Musk’s team slashing spending.
Iron Mountain‘s mine that stores government retirement records was ripped as an example of inefficiency by Musk during a visit to the Oval Office. But surprisingly, CEO Bill Meaney said the push for streamlining can actually benefit other parts of its business.
“As the government continues to drive to be more efficient, we see this as a continued opportunity for the company,” he said last week.
A man exits the Iron Mountain Inc. data storage facility in Boyers, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2018. The underground data center, located in a former limestone mine, stores 200 acres of physical data for many clients including the federal government.
Stephanie Strasburg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Executives at Palantir, the defensive technology company that was a top performer within the S&P 500 last year, are similarly hopeful. Technology Chief Shyam Sankar described Palantir’s work with the government as “operational” and “valuable,” and is hopeful that DOGE engineers will be “able to see that for a change.”
“I think DOGE is going to bring meritocracy and transparency to government, and that’s exactly what our commercial business is,” Sankar said during the company’s Feb. 3 call. “The commercial market is meritocratic and transparent, and you see the results that we have in that sort of environment. And that’s the basis of our optimism around this.”
He noted some concerns among other government software providers, and called those agreements “sacred cows of the deep state” during the call.
Elsewhere, the so-called Gulf of America has been a point of divergence after Trump’s executive order renaming what has long been known as the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron used the moniker Gulf of America repeatedly in its earnings release and on its call with analysts late last month. But Exxon Mobil, which held its earnings call the same day, opted instead to refer to the body of water as the Gulf of Mexico.
OVER 14 seasons of “The Apprentice”, Donald Trump gleefully dispatched more than 200 contestants for botching a task or ruffling the wrong feather. In his second term as president, Mr Trump is discovering that axing federal-agency heads protected by “for-cause” removal statutes may require more than an imperious finger-point. In the latest of a series of emergency applications to the Supreme Court, he is asking the justices to grant him the unfettered power he once wielded on reality TV.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks during The Clearing House Annual Conference in New York City, U.S. November 12, 2024.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday he expects the impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on prices to be “transitory,” embracing a term that got the central bank in trouble during the last bout of inflation.
“I can hear the howls already that this must be a mistake given what happened in 2021 and 2022. But just because it didn’t work out once does not mean you should never think that way again,” Waller said in remarks for a policy speech in St. Louis that compared his inflation view to the controversial “Tush Push” football play.
Laying out two scenarios for what the duties eventually will look like, Waller said larger and longer-lasting tariffs would bring a larger inflation spike initially to a 4%-5% range that eventually would ebb as growth slowed and unemployment increased. In the smaller-tariff scenario, inflation would hit around 3% and then fall off.
Either case would still see the Fed cutting interest rates, with timing being the only question, he said. Larger tariffs might force a cut to support growth, while smaller duties might allow a “good news” cut later this year, Waller added.
“Yes, I am saying that I expect that elevated inflation would be temporary, and ‘temporary’ is another word for transitory,'” he said. “Despite the fact that the last surge of inflation beginning in 2021 lasted longer than I and other policymakers initially expected, my best judgment is that higher inflation from tariffs will be temporary.”
The “transitory” term harkens back to the inflation spike in 2021 that Fed officials and many economists expected to ease after supply chain and demand factors related to the Covid pandemic normalized.
However, prices continued to rise, hitting their highest since the early 1980s and necessitating a series of dramatic rate hikes. While inflation has pulled back substantially since the Fed started raising in 2022, it remains above the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed cut its benchmark borrowing rate by a full percentage point in late 2024 but has not cut further this year.
A Trump appointee during the president’s first term, Waller used a football analogy to explain his views on “transitory” inflation. He cited the Philadelphia Eagles’ famed “Tush Push” play that the team has used to great effect on short-yardage and goal line situations.
“You are the Philadelphia Eagles and it is fourth down and a few inches from the goal line. You call for the Tush Push but fail to convert by running the ball,” he said. “Since it didn’t work out the way you expected, does that mean that you shouldn’t call for the Tush Push the next time you face a similar situation? I don’t think so.”
Waller estimated that Trump has either of two goals from the tariffs: to keep the levies high and remake the economy, or use them as negotiating tactics. In the first case, he sees growth slowing “to a crawl” while the unemployment rate rises “significantly.” If the tariffs are negotiated down, he sees the impact on inflation to be “significantly smaller.”
In the other case, he said “one of the biggest shocks to affect the U.S. economy in many decades” is making forecasting and policymaking difficult. Fed officials will need to “remain flexible” in deciding the future path.
Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE
Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange.
In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.
Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
People shop for produce at a Walmart in Rosemead, California, on April 11, 2025.
Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images
Consumer worries grew over inflation, unemployment and the stock market as the global trade war heated up in March, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday.
The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that respondents saw inflation a year from now at 3.6%, an increase of half a percentage point from February and the highest reading since October 2023.
Along with concerns over a higher cost of living came a surge in worries over the labor market: The probability that the unemployment rate would be higher a year from now surged to 44%, a move up of 4.6 percentage points and the highest level going back to the early Covid pandemic days of April 2020.
The survey also showed angst about the uncertainty translating into problems for stock market prices.
The expectation that the market will be higher a year from low slid to 33.8%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points to the lowest reading going back to June 2022. While the expectations for equities pulled back, respondents said they figure gold to rise by 5.2%, the highest since April 2022.
In the case of the New York Fed measure, the survey took place ahead of President Donald Trump’s April 2 “liberation day” tariff announcement, as well as the 90-day suspension of the order a week later. However, it is largely consistent with other measures reflecting consumer concern over the impact tariffs will have, even as market-based measures show inflation worries are low among traders.
Expectations for inflation at the five-year horizon actually edged lower to 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point, and were unchanged for the three-year outlook at 3%. The outlook for food prices a year from now nudged up to 5.2%, its highest since May 2024, and was at 7.2% for rent, an increase of half a point. The outlook for medical care costs also jumped to an expected 7.9% increase, the most since August 2024.
Respondents expect gasoline to rise by 3.2%, a 0.5 percentage point drop from the February outlook.
Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE
Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE, an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange.
In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12.
Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!