CEO of Meta and Facebook Mark Zuckerberg, Lauren Sanchez, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attend the inauguration ceremony before Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th US President in the US Capitol Rotunda in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Via Reuters
During Mettler-Toledo‘s earnings call earlier this month, executives found themselves fielding a barrage of questions about one key topic: tariffs.
The Ohio-based maker of industrial scales and laboratory equipment had already opened the call by breaking down the expected impact from President Donald Trump’s still-evolving trade policy. But when the event transitioned to the question-and-answer portion, the inquiries from analysts seeking further detail about potential tariffs were constant.
“Uncertainty remains across many of our core markets and the global economy,” Finance Chief Shawn Vadala said on the Feb. 7 call. “Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and include the potential for new tariffs that we have not factored into our guidance.”
Mettler-Toledo’s experience wasn’t unique. America’s largest companies are getting inundated with queries about how or if Trump’s salvo of promises on issues ranging from international trade to immigration and diversity will alter businesses.
A CNBC analysis shows multiple core themes tied to Trump’s policies are popping up on the earnings calls of S&P 500-listed companies at an increasing clip. Take “tariff.” Just weeks into the new year, the frequency of the word and its variations on earnings calls hit its highest level since 2020 — the last full year of Trump’s first term.
On top of that, new acronyms and phrases, like the “Gulf of America” or “DOGE,” have found their way into these meetings as the business community assesses what Trump’s return to power means for them.
Curiously, Trump himself wasn’t racking up mentions on these calls. Many uses of the word “trump” in transcripts reviewed by CNBC referred to the verb, rather than the president.
FILE PHOTO: A logo sign outside of a facility occupied by Mettler Toledo in Columbia, Maryland on March 8, 2020.
Kristoffer Tripplaar | Sipa USA | AP
Still, a review of call transcripts shows how key words tied to Trump’s policies have quickly become commonplace. With the first earnings season of 2025 more than 75% complete, the comments offer an early glimpse into how these companies view the new administration.
Tariffs
One of the most talked about policies has been Trump’s tariff plans. The president briefly implemented — and then postponed — 25% taxes on imports to the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. He also separately slapped China with a 10% levy and imposed aluminum and steel tariffs. Then, on Thursday, he discussed a plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on other trading partners on a country-by-country basis.
Given the uncertainty, it’s no surprise tariffs are a hot topic. The topic has come up on more than 190 calls held by S&P 500 companies in 2025, putting it on track to see the highest share in half of a decade.
The frequency picked up late last year as Trump’s return to the White House became clear. About half of calls in 2024 that mentioned forms of the word took place in the fourth quarter, according to a CNBC analysis of data from FactSet, a market research service.
“Studying tariffs has been at the top of the list of things that we’ve been doing,” said Marathon Petroleum CEO Maryann Mannen on the energy company’s Feb. 4 earnings call.
Several companies said they were not factoring potential impacts from these levies into their guidance, citing uncertainty about what orders will actually go into place. Others just aren’t sure: At Martin Marietta Materials, CFO James Nickolas said the supplier’s profits could either benefit or take a hit from tariffs depending on what form ultimately takes effect.
While Generac didn’t calculate how these import taxes could affect future performance, CEO Aaron Jagdfeld said the generator maker is ready to mitigate the financial hit by reducing costs elsewhere and raising its prices. Camden Property Trust CEO Richard Campo said a company analysis shows proposed tariffs would push up costs for materials from Canada and Mexico like lumber and electrical boxes. These comments offer support to the idea that Trump’s tariffs may drive up consumer prices and fan inflation.
Aaron Jagdfeld, CEO, Generac
Scott Mlyn | CNBC
Zebra Technologies CFO Nathan Winters said price increases could help mitigate profit pressure. Auto parts maker BorgWarner, meanwhile, anticipates another year of declining demand in certain markets, which CFO Craig Aaron attributed in part to potential headwinds from these levies.
Cisco‘s R. Scott Herren agreed with other executives on the lack of clarity, describing the tariff situation as “dynamic” on the networking equipment maker’s earnings call last week. Still, the CFO said the company has planned for some variation of Trump’s tariff proposals to take effect and is expecting costs to increase as a result.
“We’ve game planned out several scenarios and steps we could take depending on what actually goes into effect,” he said.
Immigration
The topic of immigration, meanwhile, has already come up on the highest share of calls since 2017.
Trump has promised mass deportations of undocumented immigrants during his second term in office. Cracking down on immigration has been a core component of Trump’s political messaging since he ran in part to “build the wall” between the U.S. and Mexico for his first term. Critics assert that his plans would shock the labor market and could result in higher inflation.
Immigration mentions tend to tick up during the first year of a new administration, CNBC data shows. But 2025 has surpassed the first years of Joe Biden’s presidency and Barack Obama’s second term, underscoring Trump’s role in elevating the issue within U.S. businesses.
Some companies grouped immigration with tariffs as drivers of broader unpredictability within the economy. Nicholas Pinchuk, CEO of toolmaker Snap-On, described anecdotes of strong demand for repair services from its clients, but said they were still stressed by red flags in the economic backdrop.
“It’s clear the techs are in a good position. But that doesn’t make them immune to the macro uncertainty around them: ongoing wars, immigration disputes, lingering inflation,” Pinchuk said. “Although the election is in the rear mirror and the new team may be more focused on business expansion, there’s a rapid fire of new initiatives. … It’s hard not to be uncertain about what’s up.”
Firms in a variety of sectors took questions about what changes in the composition of America’s population would mean. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile all fielded questions about whether a slowdown in immigration would hurt demand for certain phone plans. Michael Manelis, operations chief at apartment manager Equity Residential, said in response to an immigration-related inquiry that it hasn’t seen any upticks in lease breaks from tenants being deported.
In the Southern California market, real estate developer Prologis CEO Hamid Moghadam said deportations can decrease the pool of workers and, in turn, drive up employment costs in the region. That can exacerbate pricing pressures already expected as the Los Angeles community rebuilds in the wake of last month’s wildfires.
Employees of Tyson Foods
Greg Smith | Corbis SABA | Getty Images
Other businesses insisted deportations wouldn’t create labor shortages for their operations because all of their workers are legally authorized. One such company, chicken producer Tyson Foods, said it hasn’t had factories visited by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or seen any declines in worker attendance.
“We’re confident that we’ll be able to continue to successfully run our business,” CEO Donnie King said on Feb. 3.
DOGE and the Gulf
Topics that gained newfound relevance with Trump’s return to office have also already started emerging.
DOGE — the acronym for the new Department of Government Efficiency led by Tesla CEO Elon Musk — has been mentioned on more than 15 calls, as of Friday morning. This department has put Wall Street on alert as investors wonder if contracts between public companies and federal agencies could be on the chopping block with Musk’s team slashing spending.
Iron Mountain‘s mine that stores government retirement records was ripped as an example of inefficiency by Musk during a visit to the Oval Office. But surprisingly, CEO Bill Meaney said the push for streamlining can actually benefit other parts of its business.
“As the government continues to drive to be more efficient, we see this as a continued opportunity for the company,” he said last week.
A man exits the Iron Mountain Inc. data storage facility in Boyers, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2018. The underground data center, located in a former limestone mine, stores 200 acres of physical data for many clients including the federal government.
Stephanie Strasburg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Executives at Palantir, the defensive technology company that was a top performer within the S&P 500 last year, are similarly hopeful. Technology Chief Shyam Sankar described Palantir’s work with the government as “operational” and “valuable,” and is hopeful that DOGE engineers will be “able to see that for a change.”
“I think DOGE is going to bring meritocracy and transparency to government, and that’s exactly what our commercial business is,” Sankar said during the company’s Feb. 3 call. “The commercial market is meritocratic and transparent, and you see the results that we have in that sort of environment. And that’s the basis of our optimism around this.”
He noted some concerns among other government software providers, and called those agreements “sacred cows of the deep state” during the call.
Elsewhere, the so-called Gulf of America has been a point of divergence after Trump’s executive order renaming what has long been known as the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron used the moniker Gulf of America repeatedly in its earnings release and on its call with analysts late last month. But Exxon Mobil, which held its earnings call the same day, opted instead to refer to the body of water as the Gulf of Mexico.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks during the Division of International Finance 7th Anniversary Conference at the Fed on June 02, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
Federal Reserve officials get to voice their outlook this week on the future path of interest rates along with the impact that tariffs and Middle East turmoil will have on the economy.
While any immediate movement on interest rates seems improbable, the policy meeting, which concludes Wednesday, will feature important signals that still could move markets.
Among the biggest things to watch will be whether Federal Open Market Committee members stick with their previous forecast of two rate cuts this year, how they see inflation trending, and any reaction from Chair Jerome Powell to what has become a concerted White House campaign for easier monetary policy.
“The Fed’s main message at the June meeting will be that it remains comfortably in wait-and-see mode,” Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said in a note. BofA thinks the Fed won’t cut at all this year but will leave open the possibility for one reduction. “Investors should focus on Powell’s take on the softening labor data, the recent benign inflation prints and the risks of persistent tariff-driven inflation.”
The committee’s “dot plot” grid of individual members’ rate expectations will be front and center for investors.
At the last update in March, the committee indicated the equivalent of two quarter percentage point reductions this year, which is in line with current market pricing. However, that was a close call, and just two participants changing their approach would swing the median forecast down to one cut.
The meeting comes against a complicated geopolitical backdrop in which the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on inflation has been minimal so far but unclear for the future. At the same time, Trump and other administration officials have stepped up their urging of the Fed to lower rates.
On top of that, the Israel-Iran conflict threatens to destabilize the global energy picture, providing yet another variable through which to navigate policy.
“We expect Chair Powell to repeat his message from the May press conference,” Bhave said. “Policy is in a good place and there is no hurry for the Fed to act.”
However, the landscape could change quickly.
Varying economic signals
While the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, the May nonfarm payrolls report showed a continuing if gradual softening in the labor market. The most recent inflation data also indicated that tariffs have done little to impact prices at least on a macro scale, adding another incentive for the Fed to at least think about easing.
“We’re in a disinflating world,” former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said in a CNBC interview last week. “If it weren’t for these prospective tariffs that will flow through and are flowing through, I think the Fed would be on their front foot looking to cut rates.”
As things stand heading into the meeting, markets are pricing in the next cut to come in September, which would be the one-year anniversary of a surprisingly aggressive half percentage point reduction the FOMC instituted amid concerns over the labor market. The committee added two more quarter-point moves by the end of the year and has been on hold since.
In the current climate, “trade tensions have diminished somewhat, inflation has been low, and the hard data have shown only limited signs of softening,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle wrote.
Goldman sees the Fed sticking with its two-cut forecast but the firm’s economists expect ultimately to see only one.
“We are confident that we are still on track for eventual rate cuts because aside from the tariffs, the inflation news has actually been fairly soft. While an earlier cut is possible, the peak summer tariff effects on the monthly inflation prints will most likely be too fresh for the FOMC to cut before December,” Mericle said.
Officials also will update their projections for employment, inflation and gross domestic product growth.
Goldman sees the FOMC taking up the inflation expectation to 3% for all of 2024, 0.2 percentage point higher than March. The firm also sees a slight lowering of GDP growth to 1.5% from 1.7% and a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.5%.
Officials will then use the summer to watch the data and judge from there what it will do later in the year, said Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI.
“We think the FOMC will maintain its wait-and-see posture at its June meeting Wednesday, underline it still expects to learn a lot more about the evolving outlook over the next several months, and continue to point to September as the next decision point on rates,” Guha said in a note.
For almost a century and a half, the federal government denied the Lumbee, the largest tribe east of the Mississippi, recognition. Now, nearly everyone in Washington is trying to give it to them. “I love the Lumbee tribe,” President Donald Trump said on his third full day in office, as he signed a memorandum ordering the secretary of the interior to, within 90 days, submit a plan to help the Lumbee gain full federal recognition. The president isn’t the only one showing the Lumbee love. Last October, while campaigning on behalf of Kamala Harris in North Carolina, Bill Clinton made a swing through Pembroke, the seat of the tribal government. Donald Trump junior was nearby holding a rally filled with “Lumbees for Trump” signs. During the campaign both presidential candidates called John Lowery, the Lumbee tribal chairman, to promise full federal recognition. Also last year, the House of Representatives passed the Lumbee Fairness Act, which would extend recognition to the tribe, 311 to 96, only to see it stall in the Senate.
Shoppers try on shoes at a Footlocker store in New York City, U.S., May 16, 2025.
Jeenah Moon | Reuters
Consumers spending pulled back sharply in May, weighed by declining gas sales and a looming unease over where the economy is headed, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
Retail sales declined 0.9%, even more than the 0.6% drop expected from the Dow Jones consensus, according to numbers adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. The decline followed a 0.1% loss in April and came at a time of unease over tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%, also worse than the estimate for a gain of 0.1%.
However, excluding a series of items such as auto dealers, building materials suppliers, gas stations and others, sales increased 0.4%. That reading, known as the control group, is what the department uses when calculating gross domestic product.
Building materials and garden stores saw sales fall 2.7%, while sliding energy prices pushed gasoline station receipts down 2%. Motor vehicles and parts retailers were off 3.5%, while bars and restaurants saw sales declined 0.9%.
On the plus side, miscellaneous retailers gained 2.9% while online sales rose 0.9% and furniture stores increased sales by 1.2%.
Stock market futures held negative after the release while Treasury yields also fell.
The pullback in retail sales came despite surveys showing that consumer sentiment actually increased in May, though compared to levels that had been falling through the year. The ongoing trade war ignited by President Donald Trump’s tariffs had dented consumer and business optimism, though an easing in some of the rhetoric amid a 90-day negotiating period has led to better readings.
GDP declined at a 0.2% annualized pace in the first quarter but is projected to rebound. Second-quarter growth heading into the retail sales release was pegged at 3.8%, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker of rolling data. The gauge will be updated later Tuesday.
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