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What do higher-for-longer interest rates mean for your money?

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The Federal Reserve signaled at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday that interest rates will remain elevated for some time, bringing to an end the era of ultra-cheap money.

Americans will be forced to adapt to a new normal where savers benefit from higher rates, but borrowers face steeper debt payments on everything from credit cards to mortgages to student loans.

“The timing of when the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates is up in the air – and in an indefinite holding pattern,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

Policymakers voted during their policy-setting meeting to leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level since 2001. But officials also indicated they are unlikely to cut rates anytime soon amid signs of sticky inflation, meaning that borrowing money will remain far more expensive than it was just four years ago.

FED HOLDS INTEREST RATES STEADY AS INFLATION CASTS DOUBT ON FUTURE CUTS

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference in Washington

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference at the end of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C. on March 20, 2024. (Photo by Mandel Ngan/ AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

For Americans who carry a balance from one month to the next, the new era of persistently high interest rates could be costing them hundreds – even thousands – of dollars.

While the federal funds rate is not what consumers pay directly, it affects borrowing costs for home equity lines of credit, auto loans and credit cards. Higher rates have helped push the average rate on 30-year mortgages above 7% for the first time in years. Borrowing costs for everything from home equity lines of credit, auto loans and credit cards have also spiked.

In fact, housing affordability is as bad today as it was during the peak of the 2008 housing bubble thanks to the astronomical rise in mortgage rates. 

The Atlanta Fed’s Housing Affordability Monitor, which compares median home prices and other housing costs with median household income, indicates the median U.S. household would have to spend about 39.8% of their income to afford the median-priced house as of February, according to the index. While that marks an improvement from the end of 2023, it is still far lower than the typical pre-pandemic level.

Americans with credit card debt are also feeling the pinch from higher rates. 

Average interest rates on credit cards have already surged from 16% in February 2022, before the Fed began hiking rates, to 20.66% as of Wednesday, according to a Bankrate database.

Even just a minor change in credit card rates can affect how much Americans owe.

STAGFLATION FEARS COME BACK WITH A VENGEANCE

For instance, if you owe $5,000 – which the average American does – current APR levels would mean it would take about 277 months and $7,723 in interest to pay off the debt making the minimum payments. By comparison, that same amount of debt would have taken 269 months and $6,126 to pay off when interest rates were lower.

Those rates are unlikely to fall substantially anytime soon, thanks to the Fed’s higher-for-longer policy stance. 

“The mantra of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates is music to the ears of savers who will continue to enjoy inflation-beating returns on safe-haven savings accounts, money markets, and CDs for the foreseeable future,” McBride said. “For borrowers, however, it dashes the hopes that interest rates will come down in a meaningful way any time soon.”

The Federal Reserve building in Washington

A pedestrian passes the Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., on June 3, 2023. (Nathan Howard/Bloomberg / Getty Images)

But there is also a silver lining to higher rates for many consumers.

Most banks and credit unions will raise their savings rates during periods of higher interest rates, making it a good chance for some Americans, particularly retirees living off of their savings, to earn more.

The national average banking savings rate hit 0.58% as of May 1, according to Bankrate, although rates are as measly as 0.01% at some of the biggest banks in the U.S.

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There’s another far more lucrative option: High-yield savings accounts, many of which are now paying between 4.2% and 5.27%, providing an option for consumers who are seeking a lower-risk return. Savers can open an online high-yield savings account, but they should make sure the bank is insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

There are now more than two dozen nationally available savings and money market deposit accounts from FDIC-insured banks paying a rate of 3.75% or higher, according to Bankrate.

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India may have fastest growing e-commerce sector

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India: the "perfect" emerging market

Investors may want to consider adding exposure to the world’s second-largest emerging market.

According to EMQQ Global founder Kevin Carter, India’s technology sector is extremely attractive right now.

“It’s the tip of the spear of growth [in e-commerce] … not just in emerging markets, but on the planet,” Carter told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. 

His firm is behind the INQQ The India Internet ETF, which was launched in 2022. The India Internet ETF is up almost 21% so far this year, as of Friday’s close.

‘DoorDash of India’

One of Carter’s top plays is Zomato, which he calls “the DoorDash of India.” Zomato stock is up 128% this year.

“One of the reasons Zomato has done so well this year is because the quick commerce business blanket has exceeded expectations,” Carter said. “It now looks like it’s going to be the biggest business at Zomato.”

Carter noted his bullishness comes from a population that is just starting to go online.

“They’re getting their first-ever computer today basically,” he said, “You’re giving billions of people super computers in their pocket internet access.”

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How the Federal Reserve’s rate policy affects mortgages

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The Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate target three times in 2024.

This has many Americans waiting for mortgage rates to fall. But that may not happen for some time.

“I think the best case scenario is we’re going to continue to see mortgage rates hover around six and a half to 7%,” said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “So unfortunately for those homeowners who are looking for a bit of a reprieve on the mortgage rate side, that may not come to fruition,” Jordan said in an interview with CNBC.

Mortgage rates can be influenced by Fed policy. But the rates are more closely tied to long-term borrowing rates for government debt. The 10-year Treasury note yield has been increasing in recent months as investors consider more expansionary fiscal policies that may come from Washington in 2025. This, combined with signals sent from the market for mortgage-backed securities, determine the rates issued within new mortgages.

Economists at Fannie Mae say the Fed’s management of its mortgage-backed securities portfolio may contribute to today’s mortgage rates.

In the pandemic, the Fed bought huge amounts of assets, including mortgage-backed securities, to adjust demand and supply dynamics within the bond market. Economists also refer to the technique as “quantitative easing.”

Quantitative easing can reduce the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which leads to cheaper loan terms for home buyers. It can also provide opportunities for owners looking to refinance their mortgages. The Fed’s use of this technique in the pandemic brought mortgages rates to record lows in 2021.

“They were extra aggressive in 2021 with buying mortgage-backed securities. So, the [quantitative easing] was probably ill-advised at the time.” said Matthew Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily.

In 2022, the Federal Reserve kicked off plans to reduce the balance of its holdings, primarily by allowing those assets to mature and “roll-off” of its balance sheet. This process is known as “quantitative tightening,” and it may add upward pressure on the spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields.

“I think that’s one of the reasons the mortgage rates are still going in the wrong direction from the Federal Reserve’s standpoint,” said George Calhoun, director of the Hanlon Financial Systems Center at Stevens Institute of Technology.

Watch the video above to learn how the Fed’s decisions affect mortgage rates.

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Fintechs are 2024’s biggest gainers among financials

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Jason Wilk

Source: Jason Wilk

Jason Wilk, the CEO of digital banking service Dave, remembers the absolute low point in his brief career as head of a publicly-traded firm.

It was June 2023, and shares of his company had recently dipped below $5 apiece. Desperate to keep Dave afloat, Wilk found himself at a Los Angeles conference for micro-cap stocks, where he pitched investors on tiny $5,000 stakes in his firm.

“I’m not going to lie, this was probably the hardest time of my life,” Wilk told CNBC. “To go from being a $5 billion company to $50 million in 12 months, it was so freaking hard.”

But in the months that followed, Dave turned profitable and consistently topped Wall Street analyst expectations for revenue and profit. Now, Wilk’s company is the top gainer for 2024 among U.S. financial stocks, with a 934% year-to-date surge through Thursday.

The fintech firm, which makes money by extending small loans to cash-strapped Americans, is emblematic of a larger shift that’s still in its early stages, according to JMP Securities analyst Devin Ryan.

Investors had dumped high-flying fintech companies in 2022 as a wave of unprofitable firms like Dave went public via special purpose acquisition companies. The environment turned suddenly, from rewarding growth at any cost to deep skepticism of how money-losing firms would navigate rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve battled inflation.

Now, with the Fed easing rates, investors have rushed back into financial firms of all sizes, including alternative asset managers like KKR and credit card companies like American Express, the top performers among financial stocks this year with market caps of at least $100 billion and $200 billion, respectively.

Big investment banks including Goldman Sachs, the top gainer among the six largest U.S. banks, have also surged this year on hope for a rebound in Wall Street deals activity.

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Dave, a fintech firm taking on big banks like JPMorgan Chase, is a standout stock this year.

But it’s fintech firms like Dave and Robinhood, the commission-free trading app, that are the most promising heading into next year, Ryan said.

Robinhood, whose shares have surged 190% this year, is the top gainer among financial firms with a market cap of at least $10 billion.

“Both Dave and Robinhood went from losing money to being incredibly profitable firms,” Ryan said. “They’ve gotten their house in order by growing their revenues at an accelerating rate while managing expenses at the same time.”

While Ryan views valuations for investment banks and alternative asset manages as approaching “stretched” levels, he said that “fintechs still have a long way to run; they are early in their journey.”

Financials broadly had already begun benefitting from the Fed easing cycle when the election victory of Donald Trump last month intensified interest in the sector. Investors expect Trump will ease regulation and allow for more innovation with government appointments including ex-PayPal executive and Silicon Valley investor David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.

Those expectations have boosted the shares of entrenched players like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, but have had a greater impact on potential disruptors like Dave that could see even more upside from a looser regulatory environment.

Gas & groceries

Dave has built a niche among Americans underserved by traditional banks by offering fee-free checking and savings accounts.

It makes money mostly by extending small loans of around $180 each to help users “pay for gas and groceries” until their next paycheck, according to Wilk; Dave makes roughly $9 per loan on average.

Customers come out ahead by avoiding more expensive forms of credit from other institutions, including $35 overdraft fees charged by banks, he said. Dave, which is not a bank, but partners with one, does not charge late fees or interest on cash advances.

The company also offers a debit card, and interchange fees from transactions made by Dave customers will make up an increasing share of revenue, Wilk said.

While the fintech firm faces far less skepticism now than it did in mid-2023— of the seven analysts who track it, all rate the stock a “buy,” according to Factset — Wilk said the company still has more to prove.

“Our business is so much better now than we went public, but it’s still priced 60% below the IPO price,” he said. “Hopefully we can claw our way back.”

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