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‘What is it they’re looking for?’

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to speak at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. 

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

If the Federal Reserve is starting to set the table for interest rate reductions, some parts of the market are getting impatient for dinner to be served.

“What is it they’re looking for?” Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said on CNBC just after the Fed concluded its meeting Wednesday. “The bar is getting set pretty high and that really doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Fed needs to start that process back gradually to normal, which means gradually reducing interest rates.”

Known for formulating the Sahm Rule that uses changes in the inflation rate to gauge when recessions occur, Sahm has been clamoring for the central bank to start easing monetary policy so it doesn’t drag the economy into recession. The rule states that when the three-month average of the unemployment rate is half a percentage point above its 12-month low, the economy is in recession.

The 4.1% jobless level is only a short distance from triggering the rule, and Sahm said the Fed’s insistence on holding short-term interest rates at their highest level in 23 years is endangering the economy.

“We don’t need a weak economy to get that last little bit out of inflation,” she said. “We do not have to be afraid of a good economy. If the inflation job is done, or we’re on that glide path, it’s OK, the Fed can start stepping aside.”

Asked about the Sahm Rule during his post-meeting news conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell called it a “statistical regularity” that doesn’t necessarily hold true this time around as the jobs picture remains strong and the pace of wage gains decelerates.

“What it looks like is a normalizing labor market, job creation and a pretty decent level of wages going up at a strong level but coming down gradually,” he said. “If it turns out to … show something more than that, then we’re well positioned to respond.”

Cautious approach

Markets, though, are pricing in an aggressive path for rate cuts starting in September with a quarter percentage point reduction, which would be the first since the early days of the Covid crisis.

After that, markets expect cuts in November and December, with an about 11% probability assigned to the equivalent of a full percentage point lopped off the fed funds rate by year-end, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge of 30-day fed funds futures contracts.

Instead of starting to take its foot off the brake, the Fed on Wednesday said it is keeping its overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50%. The post-meeting statement did note progress made on inflation, but also reiterated that policymakers on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee need “greater confidence” that inflation is heading back to 2% before they will be ready to lower rates.

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also thinks the Fed is risking recession by holding a hard line on rates.

“That’s exactly what I think because I’ve been at this game for over 40 years, and it seems to happen every single time,” Gundlach said, speaking to CNBC’s Scott Wapner on “Closing Bell” on Wednesday. “All the other underlying aspects of employment data are not improving. They’re deteriorating. And so once it starts to get to that upper level, where they have to start cutting rates, it is going to be more than they think.”

In fact, he thinks the Fed could end up slashing rates by 1.5 percentage points over the next year, a pace that’s more aggressive than the policymakers charted when they last updated the “dot plot” of individual projections.

Gundlach figures that the consumer price index will be below 3% soon, making real rates, or the difference with the fed funds rate, particularly high.

“If you have a positive real interest rate that’s even one and a half percent, that would suggest you have 150 basis points of room to cut rates without even thinking that you’re being excessive about it,” he said. “I think they should have cut today, quite frankly.”

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Germany’s election will usher in new leadership — but might not change its economy

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The struggling German economy has been a major talking point among critics of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ government during the latest election campaign — but analysts warn a new leadership might not turn these tides.

As voters prepare to head to the polls, it is now all but certain that Germany will soon have a new chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz is the firm favorite.

Merz has not shied away from blasting Scholz’s economic policies and from linking them to the lackluster state of Europe’s largest economy. He argues that a government under his leadership would give the economy the boost it needs.

Experts speaking to CNBC were less sure.

“There is a high risk that Germany will get a refurbished economic model after the elections, but not a brand new model that makes the competition jealous,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC.

The CDU/CSU economic agenda

The CDU, which on a federal level ties up with regional sister party the Christian Social Union, is running on a “typical economic conservative program,” Brzeski said.

It includes income and corporate tax cuts, fewer subsidies and less bureaucracy, changes to social benefits, deregulation, support for innovation, start-ups and artificial intelligence and boosting investment among other policies, according to CDU/CSU campaigners.

“The weak parts of the positions are that the CDU/CSU is not very precise on how it wants to increase investments in infrastructure, digitalization and education. The intention is there, but the details are not,” Brzeski said, noting that the union appears to be aiming to revive Germany’s economic model without fully overhauling it.

“It is still a reform program which pretends that change can happen without pain,” he said.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of forecasting at research institute DIW Berlin, noted that the CDU is also looking to reach gross domestic product growth of around 2% again through its fiscal and economic program called “Agenda 2030.”

But reaching such levels of economic expansion in Germany “seems unrealistic,” not just temporarily, but also in the long run, she told CNBC.

Germany’s GDP declined in both 2023 and 2024. Recent quarterly growth readings have also been teetering on the verge of a technical recession, which has so far been narrowly avoided. The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous three-month stretch, according to the latest reading.

Europe’s largest economy faces pressure in key industries like the auto sector, issues with infrastructure like the country’s rail network and a housebuilding crisis.

Dany-Knedlik also flagged the so-called debt brake, a long-standing fiscal rule that is enshrined in Germany’s constitution, which limits the size of the structural budget deficit and how much debt the government can take on.

Whether or not the clause should be overhauled has been a big part of the fiscal debate ahead of the election. While the CDU ideally does not want to change the debt brake, Merz has said that he may be open to some reform.

“To increase growth prospects substantially without increasing debt also seems rather unlikely,” DIW’s Dany-Knedlik said, adding that, if public investments were to rise within the limits of the debt brake, significant tax increases would be unavoidable.

“Taking into account that a 2 Percent growth target is to be reached within a 4 year legislation period, the Agenda 2030 in combination with conservatives attitude towards the debt break to me reads more of a wish list than a straight forward economic growth program,” she said.

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Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, sees some benefits to the plans of the CDU-CSU union, saying they would likely “be positive” for the economy, but warning that the resulting boost would be small.

“Tax cuts would support consumer spending and private investment, but weak sentiment means consumers may save a significant share of their additional after-tax income and firms may be reluctant to invest,” she told CNBC.  

Palmas nevertheless pointed out that not everyone would come away a winner from the new policies. Income tax cuts would benefit middle- and higher-income households more than those with a lower income, who would also be affected by potential reductions of social benefits.

Coalition talks ahead

Following the Sunday election, the CDU/CSU will almost certainly be left to find a coalition partner to form a majority government, with the Social Democratic Party or the Green party emerging as the likeliest candidates.

The parties will need to broker a coalition agreement outlining their joint goals, including on the economy — which could prove to be a difficult undertaking, Capital Economics’ Palmas said.

“The CDU and the SPD and Greens have significantly different economic policy positions,” she said, pointing to discrepancies over taxes and regulation. While the CDU/CSU want to reduce both items, the SPD and Greens seek to raise taxes and oppose deregulation in at least some areas, Palmas explained.

The group is nevertheless likely to hold the power in any potential negotiations as it will likely have their choice between partnering with the SPD or Greens.

“Accordingly, we suspect that the coalition agreement will include most of the CDU’s main economic proposals,” she said.

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