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The Fed is clearly worried tariffs may be more inflationary than previously, says KPMG's Diane Swonk

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it will leave interest rates unchanged as inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% mandate.

The move comes after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point last year and in the wake of President Donald Trump‘s comment during his first week back in office that he’ll “demand that interest rates drop immediately.”

The latest CNBC Fed Survey showed expectations for only two rate cuts later in the year, the same number penciled in by Federal Reserve officials in their recent forecasts.

“While inflation concerns have significantly abated, they still remain,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “As a result, it is quite possible that there will be fewer rate cuts over the course of next year than anticipated only a few months ago.”

For consumers struggling under the weight of high prices and high borrowing costs, that means there will be little relief to come. It also means Trump may further challenge the Fed’s independence.

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Inflation has been an ongoing issue since the pandemic, when price increases soared to their highest levels since the early 1980s. The Fed responded with a series of interest rate hikes that took its benchmark rate to its highest level in more than 22 years.

On the campaign trail, Trump said inflation and high interest rates are “destroying our country.”

The federal funds rate, which is set by the U.S. central bank, is the rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and savings rates they see every day.

The spike in interest rates caused most consumer borrowing costs to skyrocket, putting many households under pressure.

Even though the central bank has already started cutting its benchmark rate and more rate cuts are on the horizon, consumers won’t see their borrowing costs come down significantly, according to Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst.

“The rate cuts are not going to be big enough or often enough to do the heaving lifting for you,” he said.

From credit cards and mortgage rates to auto loans and savings accounts, here’s a look at where those rates could go in 2025.

Credit cards

Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. In the wake of the rate hike cycle, the average credit card rate rose from 16.34% in March 2022 to more than 20% today — near an all-time high.

Annual percentage rates will continue to come down as the central bank reduces rates, but they are only easing off extremely high levels. With only a few potential quarter-point cuts on deck, APRs aren’t likely to fall much, according to Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“Anyone hoping for the Fed to ride in as the cavalry and rescue you from high interest rates anytime soon is going to be really disappointed,” he said.

Try consolidating and paying off high-interest credit cards with a lower-interest personal loan or switching to an interest-free balance transfer credit card, Schulz advised: “A 0% balance transfer credit card can be an absolute lifesaver.”

Mortgage rates

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, anyone shopping for a new home has lost considerable purchasing power, partly because of inflation and the Fed’s policy moves.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now just above 7%, according to Bankrate.

Going forward, McBride expects mortgage rates to “spend most of the year in the 6% range,” he said. But since most people have fixed-rate mortgages, their rate won’t change unless they refinance or sell their current home and buy another property. 

Auto loans

Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger and less affordable because car prices have been rising along with the interest rates on new loans.

The average rate on a five-year new car loan is 5.3%, according to January data from Edmunds compiled for CNBC.

“With the Fed signaling that any rate cuts in 2025 will be gradual, affordability challenges are likely to persist for most new vehicle buyers,” said Joseph Yoon, Edmunds’ consumer insights analyst.

“The average transaction price of a new vehicle remains near $50,000, driving average loan amounts to record highs,” he said. “Although further rate cuts in 2025 could provide some relief, the continued upward trend in new vehicle pricing makes it difficult to anticipate significant improvements in affordability for consumers in the new year.”  

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers aren’t immediately affected by any Fed moves.

However, undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note.

Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index, which means those borrowers are typically paying more in interest. How much more, however, varies with the benchmark.

Savings rates

While the central bank has no direct influence on deposit rates, the yields tend to be correlated to changes in the target federal funds rate.

In recent years, top-yielding online savings accounts have offered the best returns in over a decade and still pay nearly 5%.

“While the Fed putting the brakes on interest rate cuts stinks for those with debt, it is welcome news for savers,” Schulz said. “That means that it is still a really opportune time to shop for a high-yield savings account. Sure, you’ve missed out on the peak, but there are still plenty of good returns to be found.”

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Social Security plans to cut about 7,000 workers. That may affect benefits

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The Social Security Administration office in Brownsville, Texas.

Robert Daemmrich Photography Inc | Corbis Historical | Getty Images

The Social Security Administration plans to shed 7,000 employees as the Trump administration looks for ways to cut federal spending.

The agency on Friday confirmed the figure — which will bring its total staff down to 50,000 from 57,000.

Previous reports that the Social Security Administration planned for a 50% reduction to its headcount are “false,” the agency said.

Nevertheless, the aim of 7,000 job cuts has prompted concerns about the agency’s ability to continue to provide services, particularly benefit payments, to tens of millions of older Americans when its staff is already at a 50-year low.

“It’s going to extend the amount of time that it takes for them to have their claim processed,” said Greg Senden, a paralegal analyst who has worked at the Social Security Administration for 27 years.

“It’s going to extend the amount of time that they have to wait to get benefits,” said Senden, who also helps the American Federation of Government Employees oversee Social Security employees in six central states.

Officials at the White House and the Social Security Administration were not available for comment at press time.

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The Social Security Administration on Friday said it anticipates “much of” the staff reductions needed to reach its target will come from resignations, retirement and offers for Voluntary Separation Incentive Payments, or VSIP. 

More reductions could come from “reduction-in-force actions that could include abolishment of organizations and positions” or reassignments to other positions, the agency said. Federal agencies must submit their reduction-in-force plans by March 13 to the Office of Personnel Management for approval.

Cuts may affect benefit payments, experts say

Former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O’Malley last week told CNBC.com that the continuity of benefit payments could be at risk for the first time in the program’s history.

“Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits,” O’Malley said. “I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.”

Other experts say the changes could affect benefits, though it remains to be seen exactly how.

“It’s unclear to me whether the staff cuts are more likely to result in an interruption of benefits, or an increase in improper payments,” said Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former public trustee for Social Security and Medicare.

Improper payments happen when the agency either overpays or underpays benefits due to inaccurate information.

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With fewer staff, the Social Security Administration will have to choose between making sure all claims are processed, which may lead to more improper payments, or avoiding those errors, which could lead to processing delays, Blahous said.

Disability benefits, which require more agency staff attention both to process initial claims and to continue to verify beneficiaries are eligible, may be more susceptible to errors compared to retirement benefits, he added.

Cuts may have minimal impact on trust funds

Under the Trump administration, Social Security also plans to consolidate its geographic footprint to four regions down from 10 regional offices, the agency said on Friday.

Ultimately, it remains to be seen how much savings the overall reforms will generate.

The Social Security Administration’s funding for administrative costs comes out of its trust funds, which are also used to pay benefits. Based on current projections, the trust funds will be depleted in the next decade and Social Security will not be able to pay full benefits at that time, unless Congress acts sooner.

The efforts to cut costs at the Social Security Administration would likely only help the trust fund solvency “in some miniscule way,” said Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration.

What President Donald Trump is likely looking to do broadly is reset the baseline on government spending and employment, he said.

“I’m not disagreeing with the idea that the agency could be more efficient,” Biggs said. “I just wonder whether you can come up with that by cutting the positions first and figuring out how to have the efficiencies later.”

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Student loan borrowers pursuing PSLF are ‘panicking.’ Here’s what to know

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Students walk through the University of Texas at Austin on February 22, 2024 in Austin, Texas. 

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

As the Trump administration overhauls the student loan system, many borrowers pursuing the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program are worried about its future.

“There’s a lot of panicking by PSLF borrowers due to the uncertainty,” said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

PSLF, which President George W. Bush signed into law in 2007, allows certain not-for-profit and government employees to have their federal student loans canceled after 10 years of payments.

Here’s what borrowers in the program need to know about recent changes affecting the program.

IDR repayment plan applications down

Some borrowers’ PSLF progress has stalled

While the legal challenges against SAVE were playing out, the Biden administration paused the payments for enrollees through a forbearance, as well as the accrual of any interest.

Unlike the payment pause during the pandemic, borrowers in this forbearance aren’t getting credit toward their required 120 payments for loan forgiveness under PSLF. It’s unclear when the forbearance will end.

But while the applications for other IDR plans remain unavailable, borrowers in SAVE are stuck on their timeline toward loan forgiveness, Kantrowitz said. If you were on an IDR plan other than SAVE, you will continue to get credit during this period if you’re making payments and working in eligible employment.

The Education Department is now tweaking the applications to make sure all their repayment plans comply with the new court order, an agency spokesperson told CNBC last week.

It will likely be months before the Department has reworked all the applications and made them available again, Kantrowitz said.

Those who switch to the Standard plan will continue to get PSLF credit, but the payments are often too high for those working in the public sector or for a nonprofit to afford, experts said.

‘Buy back’ opportunity can help

While it’s frustrating not to be inching toward loan forgiveness for the time being, an option down the road may help, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

The Education Department’s Buyback opportunity lets people pay for certain months that didn’t count, if doing so brings them up to 120 qualifying payments.

For example, time spent in forbearances or deferments that suspended your progress can essentially be cashed in for qualifying payments.

The extra payment must total at least as much as what you have paid monthly under an IDR plan, according to Studentaid.gov.

Borrowers who’ve now been pursuing PSLF for 10 years or more should put in their buyback request sooner than later, Kantrowitz said.

“The benefit is likely to be eliminated by the Trump administration,” he said.

Keep records

Borrowers have already long complained of inaccurate payment counts under the PSLF program. While the student loan repayment options are tweaked, people could see more errors, Kantrowitz said.

“A borrower’s payment history and other student loan details are more likely to get corrupted during a transition,” he said.

As a result, he said, those pursuing PSLF should print out a copy of their payment history on StudentAid.gov.

“It would also be a good idea to create a spreadsheet showing all of the qualifying payments so they have their own count,” Kantrowitz said.

With the PSLF help tool, borrowers can search for a list of qualifying employers and access the employer certification form. Try to fill out this form at least once a year, Kantrowitz added.

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Treasury Department halts enforcement of BOI reporting for businesses

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The US Treasury building in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Jan. 27, 2025. 

Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of the Treasury on Sunday announced it won’t enforce the penalties or fines associated with the Biden-era “beneficial ownership information,” or BOI, reporting requirements for millions of domestic businesses. 

Enacted via the Corporate Transparency Act in 2021 to fight illicit finance and shell company formation, BOI reporting requires small businesses to identify who directly or indirectly owns or controls the company to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN.

After previous court delays, the Treasury in late February set a March 21 deadline to comply or risk civil penalties of up to $591 a day, adjusted for inflation, or criminal fines of up to $10,000 and up to two years in prison. The reporting requirements could apply to roughly 32.6 million businesses, according to federal estimates.     

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The rule was enacted to “make it harder for bad actors to hide or benefit from their ill-gotten gains through shell companies or other opaque ownership structures,” according to FinCEN.

In addition to not enforcing BOI penalties and fines, the Treasury said it would issue a proposed regulation to apply the rule to foreign reporting companies only. 

President Donald Trump praised the news in a Truth Social post on Sunday night, describing the reporting rule as “outrageous and invasive” and “an absolute disaster” for small businesses.

Other experts say the Treasury’s decision could have ramifications for national security.

“This decision threatens to make the United States a magnet for foreign criminals, from drug cartels to fraudsters to terrorist organizations,” Scott Greytak, director of advocacy for anticorruption organization Transparency International U.S., said in a statement.

Greg Iacurci contributed to this reporting.

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