Personal Finance
Who benefits from Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act extension
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) leaves after the House passed Republicans’ budget resolution on the spending bill on Feb. 25, 2025 in Washington.
Kayla Bartkowski | Getty Images News | Getty Images
As Congress debates how to handle trillions of dollars in expiring tax breaks, lawmakers on both sides have been lobbing claims about which consumers will see the biggest benefits from extending them. Economists and tax experts say the answer isn’t so straightforward.
In short: Who benefits depends on your frame of reference.
House Republicans passed a budget plan Tuesday that lays the groundwork to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a package of tax cuts enacted in 2017 during President Trump’s first term.
Many of the cuts for individual taxpayers will expire after 2025 unless Congress acts — and the GOP can do this with a simple majority vote in Congress by using a special legislative maneuver called budget reconciliation.
Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., ranking member of the House Ways and Means tax committee, said Wednesday that Republicans’ policy plan — central to which is an extension of the Trump tax cuts, estimated to cost more than $4 trillion — amounts to a “reverse Robin Hood scam” that gives to the rich and takes from the poor.
Meanwhile, Republicans say low- and middle-income households stand to win under the plan.
“Extending the Trump tax cuts delivers the biggest relief to working-class Americans and small businesses in a generation,” Rep. Jason Smith, R-Missouri, chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, said Tuesday.
Experts say both sides’ arguments have merit.
“The interesting thing is both can be true, depending on how you interpret what they’re saying,” said James Hines, a law and economics professor at the University of Michigan and research director in its Office of Tax Policy Research.
The Trump law cut taxes for most people
President Trump speaks about the passage of tax reform legislation on the South Lawn of the White House on Dec. 20, 2017.
Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered taxes for most U.S. households, experts said.
The legislation was broad, benefiting Americans across the income spectrum — which is broadly consistent with Republicans’ claims, they said.
Changes like a larger child tax credit and an expanded standard deduction cut income taxes for many low and middle earners, while lower marginal tax rates and tax deductions for business owners largely helped the wealthy, experts said.
If TCJA provisions are extended, 62% of tax filers would see lower tax bills in 2026, compared to if the measures expire, according to the Tax Foundation. (Put another way, many people’s tax bills would increase next year without an extension.)
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With those provisions in place, Americans would get a 2.9% boost in income after taxes in 2026, on average, according to the Tax Foundation. Income would rise by 3.4% if factoring in broader impacts of the tax cut on the U.S. economy, it said.
A U.S. Treasury Department report issued in the waning days of the Biden administration had a similar finding: The average person would get a 2.2% tax cut by extending the Trump law. (Its estimate is for the 2025 budget year.)
All income groups would get a boost in after-tax income, Treasury said.
The rich are the ‘biggest winners’
U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), joined by Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) and Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA), delivers remarks after the House passed Republicans’ budget resolution on the spending bill on Feb. 25, 2025.
Kayla Bartkowski | Getty Images News | Getty Images
However, with an extension, the largest tax cuts would accrue to the highest-income families, Treasury said.
Household in the top 5% — who earn over $450,000 a year, roughly — are the “biggest winners,” according to a July 2024 analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. They’d get over 45% of the benefits of extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it said.
A Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis on the impacts of the broad Republican tax plan had a similar finding.
The bottom 80% of income earners would get 29% of the total value of proposed tax cuts in 2026, according to the Wharton analysis, issued Thursday. The top 10% would get 56% of the value, it said.
This dynamic speaks to Democrats’ arguments, especially when coupled with possible spending cuts for programs like Medicaid and food stamps. Such programs largely benefit lower earners.
Wharton estimates that the combination of tax cuts and spending reductions for programs like Medicaid and food stamps would leave “low-income households worse off,” even after accounting for economic growth.
Some tax analysts view after-tax income as among the best frames of reference to assess policy impact, because it estimates how much a household’s buying power improves. Others disagree, however, saying it’s hard to control for other economic variables that might alter income.
The top 1% of households (who make about $1 million or more a year) would get a 3.2% boost in after-tax income in 2027 via an extension of the Trump law, the Tax Policy Center said. In dollar terms, their tax savings would be about $70,000, on average.
By comparison, middle-income households, would get a 1.3% income boost, or a $1,000 tax cut, according to the Tax Policy Center.
The rich ‘pay most of the taxes’
In a sense, this dynamic is to be expected because the U.S. income-tax system is progressive, experts said. That means high earners generally shoulder more of the overall tax burden than low earners.
“If you ask, ‘Who gets the dollars,’ it’s mostly rich taxpayers,” said Hines of the University of Michigan. “But that’s because it’s a tax cut and they pay most of the taxes.”
The top 1% paid 40% of all U.S. income taxes collected in 2022, according to a recent Tax Foundation analysis. The bottom 90% paid about a quarter — 28% — of total income tax.
“Democrats say most of the tax dollars went to the rich: They’re absolutely correct,” Hines said.
However, the TCJA cut taxes more for working families than rich families on a proportional basis, a White House spokesperson said.
Experts agreed with that assessment.
“Republicans say, ‘But the cuts were not slanted to the rich compared to how much people were paying originally,” which is also generally correct, Hines said.
President Donald Trump holds up a copy of legislation he signed before before signing the tax reform bill into law in the Oval Office Dec. 22, 2017.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty Images
For example, the bottom 50% of Americans saw their average federal tax rate fall by 15% from 2017 to 2018, after the Trump tax cut took effect, according to the Tax Foundation. (Their rate fell to 3.4% from 4%.)
By contrast, the top 1% saw their average rate decline by a lesser percentage (about 5%) during that period, to 25.4% from 26.8%.
“The reason why the debate is so fractured is there are elements of truth to both sides,” said Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation. “It’s a battle of metrics, and what weight to place on each of them.”
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Nearly 2 million federal student loan borrowers who’ve requested to be in an affordable repayment plan are stuck in a backlog of applications, waiting to be approved or denied, according to new data recently shared by the U.S. Department of Education.
The Education Department disclosed the information in a May 15 court filing in response to a legal challenge lodged by the American Federation of Teachers. The teachers’ union sued the Trump administration in March for shutting down access to income-driven repayment plan applications on the Education Department’s website.
IDR plans cap borrowers’ monthly bills at a share of their discretionary income with the aim of making their payments manageable.
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In late March, the Trump administration made the online applications available again, and said that it pulled the forms because it needed to make sure all repayment plans complied with a court order that blocked the Biden administration’s new IDR plan, known as SAVE, or the Saving on a Valuable Education plan.
Trump officials argued that the ruling had broader implications for other IDR plans, and it ended up removing the loan forgiveness component under some of the options.
The backlog complicates things for borrowers as the Trump administration restarts collection activity. The Education Department estimates that nearly 10 million people could be in default on their student loans within months.
Without access to an affordable repayment plan, student loan borrowers can be suspended on their timeline to loan forgiveness and at risk of falling behind and facing collection activity.
‘The opposite of government efficiency’
In the May court document, the Education Department disclosed that more than 1.98 million IDR applications remained pending as of the end of April. Only roughly 79,000 requests had been approved or denied during that month.
Consumer advocates slammed the findings.
“This filing confirms what borrowers have known for months: Their applications for loan relief have effectively been going into a void,” said Winston Berkman-Breen, legal director at the Student Borrower Protection Center.
The Center said that if the Education Department continued to move at its current rate, it would take more than two years to process the existing applications.
AFT President Randi Weingarten called the backlog “outrageous and unacceptable.”
“This is the opposite of government efficiency,” Weingarten said. “Millions of borrowers are being denied their legal right to an affordable repayment option.”
What’s behind the backlog
A spokesperson for the Education Dept. blamed the backlog on the Biden administration, saying that it “failed to process income-driven repayment applications for borrowers, artificially masking rising delinquency and default rates and promising illegal student loan forgiveness to win points with voters.”
“The Trump Administration is actively working with federal student loan servicers and hopes to clear the Biden backlog over the next few months,” they said.
The Biden administration put the student loan borrowers who’d enrolled in its new IDR plan, SAVE, into an interest-free forbearance while the GOP-led legal challenges to the program unfolded. Many of the currently pending IDR requests are likely from borrowers who are trying to leave that blocked plan to get into an available one.
Sarah Sattlemeyer, a project director at New America and senior advisor under the Biden administration, said that the current backlog began last year “and has existed across both the Biden and Trump administrations” as a result of the legal battle over the SAVE plan.
“It is a demonstration of how complicated the loan system is, how much uncertainty there has been over the last few years and what is at stake,” Sattlemeyer said. “There also isn’t clarity around how some applications in the backlog should or will be handled, such as those where a borrower chose an option that no longer exists on the application.”
In recent months, the Trump administration has terminated around half of the Education Department’s staff, including many of the people who helped assist borrowers.
That is also likely one reason why so many of the applications haven’t been processed, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.
“Perhaps the reduction in staff is affecting their ability to process the forms,” Kantrowitz said.
The Trump administration’s resumption of collection efforts on defaulted federal student loans has far-reaching consequences for delinquent borrowers.
For starters, borrowers who are in default may have wages, tax returns and Social Security payments garnished.
But involuntary collections could also have a “spillover effect,” which puts consumers at risk of falling behind on other debt repayments, according to a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
As collection activity restarts, disposable income falls
“We were obviously somewhat concerned about potential spillovers to delinquencies on other types of debt,” the New York Fed researchers said on a press call earlier this month.
“During the period where people were not required to make payments on their student loans, they could have used that money to pay their credit card bills and auto loans,” the researchers said. “Now they have to make these payments again on their student loans, so that could put pressure on their ability to pay these other loans.”
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The U.S. Department of Education’s crack down on student loan repayments could take billions of dollars out of consumers’ pockets, reports show. Monthly collections on defaulted loans may reduce disposable personal income between $3.1 billion to $8.5 billion a month, according to research by JPMorgan.
“Part of the reason that some people are adding to credit card debt is because they have student loan payments — that’s the spillover effect,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate. “Something’s got to give.”
‘It’s just money that can’t go to other financial things’
Until earlier this month, the Department of Education had not collected on defaulted student loans since March 2020. After the Covid pandemic-era pause on federal student loan payments expired in September 2023, the Biden administration offered borrowers another year in which they would be shielded from the impacts of missed payments. That on-ramp officially ended on Sept. 30, 2024, and the Education Department restarted collection efforts on defaulted student loans on May 5.
Whether borrowers face garnishment, or opt to resume payments to get current on their loan, that’s likely to have a significant impact on their wallet.
“It’s just money that can’t go to other financial things,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.
After the five-year pause ended and collections are resumed, the delinquency rate for student loan balances spiked, the New York Fed found. Nearly 8% of total student debt was reported as 90 days past due in the first quarter of 2025, compared to less than 1% in the previous quarter.
Currently, around 42 million Americans hold federal student loans and roughly 5.3 million borrowers are in default, according to the Education Department. Another 4 million borrowers are in “late-stage delinquency,” or over 90 days past due on payments.
Among borrowers who are now required to make payments — not including those who are in deferment or forbearance or are currently enrolled in school — nearly one in four student loan borrowers are behind in their payments, the New York Fed found.
As borrowers transition out of forbearance and into repayment, those borrowers may also face challenges making payments, according to a separate research note by Bank of America. “This transition will likely drive delinquencies and defaults on student loans higher and could have further knock-on effects for consumer finance companies,” Bank of America analyst Mihir Bhatia wrote to clients on May 15.
In a blog post, the New York Fed researchers noted that “it is unclear whether these penalties will spill over into payment difficulties in other credit products, but we will continue to monitor this space in the coming months.”
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