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Who benefits from Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act extension

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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) leaves after the House passed Republicans’ budget resolution on the spending bill on Feb. 25, 2025 in Washington.

Kayla Bartkowski | Getty Images News | Getty Images

As Congress debates how to handle trillions of dollars in expiring tax breaks, lawmakers on both sides have been lobbing claims about which consumers will see the biggest benefits from extending them. Economists and tax experts say the answer isn’t so straightforward.

In short: Who benefits depends on your frame of reference.

House Republicans passed a budget plan Tuesday that lays the groundwork to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, a package of tax cuts enacted in 2017 during President Trump’s first term.

Many of the cuts for individual taxpayers will expire after 2025 unless Congress acts — and the GOP can do this with a simple majority vote in Congress by using a special legislative maneuver called budget reconciliation.

Rep. Richard Neal, D-Mass., ranking member of the House Ways and Means tax committee, said Wednesday that Republicans’ policy plan — central to which is an extension of the Trump tax cuts, estimated to cost more than $4 trillion — amounts to a “reverse Robin Hood scam” that gives to the rich and takes from the poor.

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Meanwhile, Republicans say low- and middle-income households stand to win under the plan.

“Extending the Trump tax cuts delivers the biggest relief to working-class Americans and small businesses in a generation,” Rep. Jason Smith, R-Missouri, chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, said Tuesday.

Experts say both sides’ arguments have merit.

“The interesting thing is both can be true, depending on how you interpret what they’re saying,” said James Hines, a law and economics professor at the University of Michigan and research director in its Office of Tax Policy Research.

The Trump law cut taxes for most people

President Trump speaks about the passage of tax reform legislation on the South Lawn of the White House on Dec. 20, 2017.

Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered taxes for most U.S. households, experts said.

The legislation was broad, benefiting Americans across the income spectrum — which is broadly consistent with Republicans’ claims, they said.

Changes like a larger child tax credit and an expanded standard deduction cut income taxes for many low and middle earners, while lower marginal tax rates and tax deductions for business owners largely helped the wealthy, experts said.

If TCJA provisions are extended, 62% of tax filers would see lower tax bills in 2026, compared to if the measures expire, according to the Tax Foundation. (Put another way, many people’s tax bills would increase next year without an extension.)

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With those provisions in place, Americans would get a 2.9% boost in income after taxes in 2026, on average, according to the Tax Foundation. Income would rise by 3.4% if factoring in broader impacts of the tax cut on the U.S. economy, it said.

A U.S. Treasury Department report issued in the waning days of the Biden administration had a similar finding: The average person would get a 2.2% tax cut by extending the Trump law. (Its estimate is for the 2025 budget year.)

All income groups would get a boost in after-tax income, Treasury said.

The rich are the ‘biggest winners’

U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), joined by Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) and Rep. Katherine Clark (D-MA), delivers remarks after the House passed Republicans’ budget resolution on the spending bill on Feb. 25, 2025.

Kayla Bartkowski | Getty Images News | Getty Images

However, with an extension, the largest tax cuts would accrue to the highest-income families, Treasury said.

Household in the top 5% — who earn over $450,000 a year, roughly — are the “biggest winners,” according to a July 2024 analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. They’d get over 45% of the benefits of extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it said.

A Penn Wharton Budget Model analysis on the impacts of the broad Republican tax plan had a similar finding.

The bottom 80% of income earners would get 29% of the total value of proposed tax cuts in 2026, according to the Wharton analysis, issued Thursday. The top 10% would get 56% of the value, it said.

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This dynamic speaks to Democrats’ arguments, especially when coupled with possible spending cuts for programs like Medicaid and food stamps. Such programs largely benefit lower earners.

Wharton estimates that the combination of tax cuts and spending reductions for programs like Medicaid and food stamps would leave “low-income households worse off,” even after accounting for economic growth.

Some tax analysts view after-tax income as among the best frames of reference to assess policy impact, because it estimates how much a household’s buying power improves. Others disagree, however, saying it’s hard to control for other economic variables that might alter income.

The top 1% of households (who make about $1 million or more a year) would get a 3.2% boost in after-tax income in 2027 via an extension of the Trump law, the Tax Policy Center said. In dollar terms, their tax savings would be about $70,000, on average.

By comparison, middle-income households, would get a 1.3% income boost, or a $1,000 tax cut, according to the Tax Policy Center.

The rich ‘pay most of the taxes’

In a sense, this dynamic is to be expected because the U.S. income-tax system is progressive, experts said. That means high earners generally shoulder more of the overall tax burden than low earners.

“If you ask, ‘Who gets the dollars,’ it’s mostly rich taxpayers,” said Hines of the University of Michigan. “But that’s because it’s a tax cut and they pay most of the taxes.”

The top 1% paid 40% of all U.S. income taxes collected in 2022, according to a recent Tax Foundation analysis. The bottom 90% paid about a quarter — 28% — of total income tax.

“Democrats say most of the tax dollars went to the rich: They’re absolutely correct,” Hines said.

However, the TCJA cut taxes more for working families than rich families on a proportional basis, a White House spokesperson said.

Experts agreed with that assessment.

“Republicans say, ‘But the cuts were not slanted to the rich compared to how much people were paying originally,” which is also generally correct, Hines said.

President Donald Trump holds up a copy of legislation he signed before before signing the tax reform bill into law in the Oval Office Dec. 22, 2017.

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty Images

For example, the bottom 50% of Americans saw their average federal tax rate fall by 15% from 2017 to 2018, after the Trump tax cut took effect, according to the Tax Foundation. (Their rate fell to 3.4% from 4%.)

By contrast, the top 1% saw their average rate decline by a lesser percentage (about 5%) during that period, to 25.4% from 26.8%.

“The reason why the debate is so fractured is there are elements of truth to both sides,” said Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation. “It’s a battle of metrics, and what weight to place on each of them.”

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Treasury Department halts enforcement of BOI reporting for businesses

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The US Treasury building in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, Jan. 27, 2025. 

Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The U.S. Department of the Treasury on Sunday announced it won’t enforce the penalties or fines associated with the Biden-era “beneficial ownership information,” or BOI, reporting requirements for millions of domestic businesses. 

Enacted via the Corporate Transparency Act in 2021 to fight illicit finance and shell company formation, BOI reporting requires small businesses to identify who directly or indirectly owns or controls the company to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, known as FinCEN.

After previous court delays, the Treasury in late February set a March 21 deadline to comply or risk civil penalties of up to $591 a day, adjusted for inflation, or criminal fines of up to $10,000 and up to two years in prison. The reporting requirements could apply to roughly 32.6 million businesses, according to federal estimates.     

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The rule was enacted to “make it harder for bad actors to hide or benefit from their ill-gotten gains through shell companies or other opaque ownership structures,” according to FinCEN.

In addition to not enforcing BOI penalties and fines, the Treasury said it would issue a proposed regulation to apply the rule to foreign reporting companies only. 

President Donald Trump praised the news in a Truth Social post on Sunday night, describing the reporting rule as “outrageous and invasive” and “an absolute disaster” for small businesses.

Other experts say the Treasury’s decision could have ramifications for national security.

“This decision threatens to make the United States a magnet for foreign criminals, from drug cartels to fraudsters to terrorist organizations,” Scott Greytak, director of advocacy for anticorruption organization Transparency International U.S., said in a statement.

Greg Iacurci contributed to this reporting.

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Trump ‘gold card’ visa may attract rich college applicants from abroad

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New York University graduates walk through New York’s Washington Square Park on May 9, 2021.

Alexi Rosenfeld | Getty Images

For years, restrictive student visa policies in the U.S. have been a drag on college enrollment among international students. President Donald Trump’s proposed “gold card” could change that for some wealthy college hopefuls.

While the details of the initiative remain unclear, experts say the gold card visa program could offer these students from overseas a path to citizenship in return for $5 million.

“Over the past 24 hours, we received an unusual influx of inquiries from students in China, Korea and India because of Trump’s gold card visa,” Christopher Rim, president and CEO of college consulting firm Command Education, said Thursday, two days after Trump first floated the idea.

“Now these wealthy international students have a clear path of staying in the country after graduation,” he said.

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Currently, there are more than 1.1 million international undergraduate and graduate students in the U.S., mostly from India and China, making up slightly less than 6% of the total U.S. higher education population, according to the latest Open Doors data, released by the U.S. Department of State and the Institute of International Education.

“It’s a relatively small cohort but these policies can have great value,” said Robert Franek, editor-in-chief of The Princeton Review.

International enrollment is an important source of revenue for schools like New York University and Columbia University, which is why colleges tend to admit more foreign students, who typically pay full tuition, according to Franek. 

“We know those students are incredibly attractive because they are not applying for financial aid,” he said.

In fact, “more than 95% of four-year colleges in the U.S. are tuition driven,” Franek said. “For schools dependent on students paying tuition, we know this [visa option] is going to be a benefit.”

Altogether, international student enrollment contributed $43.8 billion to the U.S. economy during the 2023-2024 academic year, according to a separate report by NAFSA: Association of International Educators.

A spotlight on college access

However, Trump’s proposed gold card also comes at a time when college access is increasingly in the spotlight.

“Clearly those families that can afford it will take advantage of that, but I don’t know what the net long-term effect on higher education will be,” said James Lewis, co-founder of the National Society of High School Scholars, an academic honor society.

“We certainly want to make college accessible for everyone,” he said.

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Higher education already costs more than most families can afford, and college costs are still rising

Tuition and fees plus room and board for a four-year private college averaged $58,600 in the 2024-25 school year, up from $56,390 a year earlier, the College Board found. At four-year, in-state public colleges, it was $24,920, up from $24,080.

For far more families, financial aid is crucial when it comes to covering the cost of college, and particularly for students from low-income, first-generation or minority backgrounds.

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Here’s how rent can make or break your credit, experts say

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Blonde woman standing in the room while unpacking boxes.

Miniseries | E+ | Getty Images

Rent payments don’t typically affect your credit — but they can in a few circumstances. The consequences can be significant.

Rent doesn’t show up in your credit history, experts say because landlords don’t usually report payments to credit bureaus as credit card issuers and other lenders do.

When rent payments do appear, it’s generally because a tenant — or a property manager on a tenant’s behalf — has enrolled in a so-called rent reporting program. These services are meant to provide tenants with the opportunity to grow their credit history through on-time rent payments.

“The good news is that there are a lot of them out there,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. “It’s certainly been a growing space over the last few years.”

If you fall behind, however, those services can also hurt your credit, experts say. And whether you report your rent to the bureaus or not, debt collection efforts for late or unfulfilled rent payments can also be a black mark on your credit.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau began accepting complaints about rental debt collection in August 2023. Since then, there have been roughly 10,960 consumer complaints about rental debt collection in the U.S., per CFPB data through Feb. 21.

If you’re a renter or plan to be, here’s what you should know. 

Rent reporting can help the ‘credit invisible’

Rent reporting can especially help those who are “credit invisible” or do not have any credit history. If you’re looking for ways to grow your credit, such platforms can be a helpful tool.

Those who have enrolled typically see their credit scores increase. When rent payments are included in credit reports, consumers see an average growth of 60 points to their credit score, according to a 2021 TransUnion report.

But if you fall behind on your rent payments, that activity could be also reflected in such tools, and in turn, your score, experts say.

What’s more, rent reporting services are not always free and do not always report the data to all three major credit bureaus, experts say. For example, rent reporting platform Rental Kharma charges $8.95 a month after an initial setup fee of $75. The service reports the data to two of the three bureaus: TransUnion and Equifax. 

How rent can appear as a debt collection

Even if you don’t use a rent reporting service, your landlord has the ability to report late or unpaid rents to the credit bureaus via a debt collection service, said Chi Chi Wu, a senior attorney at the National Consumer Law Center, a nonprofit headquartered in Boston. 

Rent delinquencies sometimes appear in credit reports if a tenant leaves a unit and the landlord claims the tenant owes back rent or damages, she said. The landlord in this situation will then send that amount to a debt collector.

How on-time rent payments can help 'credit invisible' consumers be seen

The addition of any paid or unpaid collections tradeline — amounts of allegedly past-due accounts appearing on consumer credit reports — of at least $100 to a credit report will reduce a score of 680 by more than 40 points and a score of 780 by over 100 points, according to a 2014 report by the CFPB, citing the FICO 8 scoring model.

But the impact of a collection tradeline will depend on variable factors like your current score, the score model and even how recent the collection is, experts say. It could be less impactful once paid. 

“If the debt collection items are a few months old, that’s going to hurt a lot more than if it’s a few years old. It’s very variable,” Wu said.

Here are some key factors to keep in mind about how your track record as a tenant could affect your credit history, according to experts:

Rent reporting services

1. Do you actually need it? Check out if you would truly benefit from reporting your rent payments, Wu suggests. Experts point out that it’s more of an advantageous tool for those with weaker credit history. 

“It’s not the same value for everyone,” said Adam Rust, director of financial services at the Consumer Federation of America.

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“For some people, their credit may already be good. So it won’t make much of a difference, whereas for others, particularly those who have no credit history or a thin file, it could be very important,” Rust said.

2. Does the service cost anything? Some rent reporting services are free of charge, others require a fee that can range from $6.95 to $9.95 a month, according to Apartment List. Some services charge a one-time enrollment or setup fee that can cost from $25 to $95, the site found. See if it would come at an additional cost to you or if your landlord covers any of the fees.

3. Does the service report to all three major bureaus? It makes sense to confirm that the rent reporting services report your payment history to all three credit bureaus, Schulz said. Sometimes the service will report to one or two of the bureaus, but not all three — which can mean a limited or uneven effect on your credit.

“It’s something that people don’t always think about,” he said.

4. What data does the service report? Some only share on-time, in-full rent payments to credit bureaus while others might include late-payment activity, experts say. And even if they only report positive history, if you’ve paid on time for eight consecutive months and all of a sudden the record is blank, future landlords and lenders might be able to connect the dots, Wu said.

Also remember that “life happens,” she said. “Look at all of these federal employees that are out of a job right now. They didn’t think they were going to be late on rent either, and they had secure jobs.”

Rental debt

Affected tenants may have inaccurate information reported to the credit bureaus. From August 2023 up until Feb. 21, there have been roughly 1,697 complaints about false statements or representation about debt collection related to rent, per CFPB data.

If you understand there is inaccurate or erroneous information on your credit report, you have the right to dispute that information under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, a law that governs credit reports, tenant screening reports and background checks, Wu said. 

“You have the right to dispute it,” she said. But keep in mind that it has been historically difficult to dispute reporting errors that involve debt collectors, Wu said. Creditors typically will take the side of the debt collector.

“It’s like a judge that always rules for the defendant or a referee that always makes the call for the home team,” she said. 

Even if you decide to ultimately pay the collection item on your credit report, with the exception of medical debt, it does not immediately go away, Wu said — it just appears as “paid.”

Under the provisions of the Fair Credit Reporting Act, adverse information like debt collections may remain on your credit report for seven years.

In 2022, the three credit bureaus announced voluntary changes to remove some medical debt from credit reports, which included paid off medical debt and unpaid debt under $500, Wu said. 

Outside of that, the item stays as a “ding” on your credit report even if you pay. 

“So paying it off might not solve the problem,” she said. One thing you could do is “pay-for-delete,” or pay the debt collector for them to kick the collection line off your credit in return, she said. If you decide to go through this route, make sure to get the agreement in writing, Wu said. You may want to consult legal experts about the idea.

Similar to your landlord — if you’re going to end your lease early, and you get the landlord’s “OK,” get the agreement and any details on your outstanding balance or obligations in writing.

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