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Why Donald Trump has moved ahead in our election forecast

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FOR THE first time since August, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in The Economist’s statistical model of America’s presidential election. Our latest forecast shows that Mr Trump has a 54% chance of returning to the White House, up six percentage points during the past week. Although the race still remains more or less a coin toss, it is now weighted slightly in Mr Trump’s direction.

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Economics

After a season of Gaza protests, America’s university graduates are polarised but resilient

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The graduation speech is a dismal genre, typically a sermon about showing grit and finding your own path, leavened by dad jokes. America’s university graduating classes of 2024 are unlikely to mind. The great majority of them started college four years ago, amid peak covid. This spring, protests over the war in Gaza disrupted many campuses and led to nearly 3,000 arrests nationwide. At the hotspot of Columbia University in New York, classes went online again, triggering covid flashbacks. University leaders and police prepared this month for tense scenes at graduation ceremonies.

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Economics

Bayer wants legislative help to fight its cancer lawsuits

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But the maker of Roundup weedkiller faces opposition from Republican and Democratic hardliners

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Economics

Checks and Balance newsletter: virtue and vice in public private life

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Checks and Balance newsletter: virtue and vice in public private life

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