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Economics

Why Donald Trump has moved ahead in our election forecast

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FOR THE first time since August, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in The Economist’s statistical model of America’s presidential election. Our latest forecast shows that Mr Trump has a 54% chance of returning to the White House, up six percentage points during the past week. Although the race still remains more or less a coin toss, it is now weighted slightly in Mr Trump’s direction.

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Economics

Matt Gaetz v the ethics committee

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On December 23rd a congressional committee released a lurid 37-page report alleging ethical misconduct by Matt Gaetz, the former maverick member of the House of Representatives who briefly stood as Donald Trump’s nominee for attorney-general. In a different time the investigation’s details about illicit sex and drug use would definitively end Mr Gaetz’s political career, and perhaps it will now. Yet he could soon test how far deviance has been defined down in America’s norm-smashing political era.

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Economics

Matt Gaetz vs the ethics committee

Published

on

On December 23rd a congressional committee released a lurid 37-page report alleging ethical misconduct by Matt Gaetz, the former maverick member of the House of Representatives who briefly stood as Donald Trump’s nominee for attorney-general. In a different time the investigation’s details about illicit sex and drug use would definitively end Mr Gaetz’s political career, and perhaps it will now. Yet he could soon test how far deviance has been defined down in America’s norm-smashing political era.

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Economics

At the state level, democracy in America is fracturing

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The residents of Bristol, Tennessee and Bristol, Virginia share a border, a downtown and even a Nascar speedway. But thanks to the quirks of American federalism, the 27,800 Bristolians who live in the Volunteer State reside in America’s least democratic state, while their 16,800 neighbors to the north live in one of the most democratic.

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