Personal Finance

Why you may get a smaller pay raise in 2025

Published

4 months ago

August 1, 2024

Hinterhaus Productions | Stone | Getty Images

Many workers will see their annual raise shrink next year as the job market continues to cool from its torrid pace in the pandemic era.

The typical worker will get a 4.1% pay raise for 2025, down from 4.5% this year, according to a new poll by WTW, a consulting firm.

This is a midyear estimate from 1,888 U.S. organizations that use a fiscal calendar year. Actual raises may change by year-end when the companies finalize their salary budgets.

How companies decide on appropriate salaries and how to negotiate for more money

The size of workers’ salary increases is “driven primarily” by the supply and demand of labor, said Lori Wisper, WTW’s work and rewards global solutions leader. Affordability and industry dynamics play lesser roles, she added.

Companies in the survey would likely pay their annual raises by April 1, 2025, she said.

Job market was ‘unbelievably robust’

Worker pay in 2021 and 2022 grew at its fastest pace in well over a decade amid an “unbelievably robust” job market, Wisper said.

Demand for workers hit records as Covid-19 vaccines rolled out and the U.S. economy reopened broadly. Workers quit their jobs readily for better, higher-paying ones, a trend dubbed the great resignation. More than 50 million people quit in 2022, a record.

Companies had to raise salaries more than usual to compete for scarce talent and retain employees.

The prevalence of incentives like signing bonuses also “grew dramatically,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

Almost 7% of online job listings offered a signing bonus in 2021, roughly double the pre-pandemic share, according to ZipRecruiter data. The percentage has dropped to 3.8% in 2024.

“I’m not sure I’ll ever see that kind of job market in my lifetime again,” Wisper said of 2021 and 2022.

Now, the job market has cooled. Hiring, quits and job openings have declined and the unemployment rate has increased.

Companies may feel they don’t need to offer as much money if they’re not getting as many applications and have fewer job openings, Pollak said.

Almost half — 47% — of U.S. organizations expect their salary budgets to be lower for 2025, according to WTW. (Companies set a salary budget and use that pool of money to pay raises to workers.)

The current environment “feels like we’re seeing more normal circumstances, where demand is back to where it was pre-pandemic in 2018 and 2019, which was still a very healthy job market,” Wisper said.

Additionally, after two years of declining buying power amid high inflation, the lessening of pricing pressures in recent months has boosted workers’ buying power.

Still high relative to recent past

While the typical 4.1% projected raise is smaller than that during the last pay cycle, it’s “still kind of high” relative to recent years, according to Wisper.

For example, the median annual pay raise had largely hovered around 3% in the years after the 2008 financial crisis, she said.

Here's how you know it's time to leave your job

The increase to more than 4% during the pandemic era was notable: Salary growth tends to fall instead of rise, Wisper said. For example, it was around 4.5% to 5% in the years leading up to the financial crisis, and had never fully recovered, she said.

It’s “something that’s never happened before,” Wisper said. “And [the raises] have stuck, to a degree.”

Don’t miss these insights from CNBC PRO

Personal Finance

How remote work can help you travel this holiday season

Published

12 hours ago

November 17, 2024

Business Finance News

Baona | E+ | Getty Images

Americans are determined to travel this holiday season — and certain workarounds are helping them take those trips.

The ability to work remotely is a major leg up when planning out itineraries.

About 49% of employed travelers are “laptop luggers” — those who plan to work at some point on their holiday vacation — up from 34% last year, according to the Deloitte holiday travel survey.

This flexibility allows workers to take trips they might not otherwise, or stretch their trips for longer, according to the survey.

While there are more laptop luggers across most age groups and income levels, Gen Zers, which Deloitte defines as those born between 1997 and 2012, and high earners make up the highest shares, at 58% and 52%, respectively, according to the survey.

Deloitte polled 4,074 American adults in September. Of that group, 2,005 were identified as holiday travelers.

The change in laptop luggers is “a pretty high jump. It’s almost across all income levels and age groups,” said Eileen Crowley, vice chair and U.S. transportation, hospitality and services attest leader at Deloitte.

Since the pandemic, remote work has become a priority for job seekers, said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

In the third quarter, 51% of surveyed job seekers said the ability to work from wherever they want is a top reason for remote jobs, up from 40.8% in the first quarter of 2022, according to ZipRecruiter data.

“The value to U.S. workers of being able to work from anywhere has clearly grown over the course of the great remote work experiment,” she said.

In addition to working during their trip, travelers are coming up with other workarounds such as driving instead of flying or cutting back on other expenses, experts said.

“People are willing to cut corners to save money, but they don’t want to skip the trip entirely,” said Ted Rossman, an industry analyst at Bankrate.

Who’s spending on holiday travel this year

High earners are driving holiday travel and spending trends this year, according to experts.

When it comes to holiday travel, 52% of shoppers with incomes of $100,000 or more said they can “easily afford” that expense, according to Morning Consult, a survey research firm. That is the highest share compared with mid- to low-income groups.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

“Higher-income consumers are not nearly as price sensitive,” Stacy Francis, president and CEO of Francis Financial, a wealth management, financial planning and divorce financial planning firm in New York City, recently told CNBC.

“They’re not nearly as budget conscious as people in lower-wage-earning brackets,” said Francis, a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council.

Among generational groups, millennials, or those born between 1980 and 1996, have the highest budgets and longest travel planned. According to the report, millennials plan to take about 2.6 trips over the course of the holiday season and spend on average $3,927, per the Deloitte survey.

What’s making holiday travel possible this year

More than 4 in 5 holiday travelers, 83%, are finding ways to save money this holiday season, such as driving instead of flying, according to Bankrate.

“Most of these people are still traveling, they’re just doing so differently to cut some costs,” Rossman said.

Separately, about 50% of respondents are cutting back on other expenses and 49% are picking up discounts and deals, according to the 2024 Holiday Travel Outlook by Hopper, a travel site.

Among other strategies, 22% plan to travel on off-peak days and 21% are using credit card points or miles to cover some of the cost, the Hopper report found.

If you do plan to pull out your laptop and work during a holiday vacation, make sure to review your company’s rules around remote work, said Pollak. Some companies require employees to work from their home, from within the company’s home state or within the U.S. unless otherwise authorized.

“You risk getting your access shut off, being punished or even having your employment terminated if you try to work from elsewhere,” Pollak said.

Touch base with your manager or director about the idea as well, she said: “Some managers just care that you’re getting the job done and aren’t concerned how.”

Finally, you want to make sure the location you plan to work from has a strong electric grid or service and Wi-Fi is reliable.

“If you’re on the hook for work, make sure you are somewhere where you can get it done,” Pollak said.

Spending on experiences such as travel and concerts spiked after pandemic-era lockdowns and restrictions because of pent-up demand from Americans, experts say.

Yet even after several years, travel “seems to be something that’s sticking,” said Deloitte’s Crowley: “People are placing value and making room in their budgets for travel.”

Personal Finance

Why many young adults in the U.S. are still living with their parents

Published

13 hours ago

November 17, 2024

Business Finance News

Approximately 1 in 3 U.S. adults ages 18 to 34 live in their parents’ home, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

The pandemic caused more young adults to return home or remain living with their parents into their late 20s and 30s, but aside from that spike, the numbers have remained fairly consistent in recent years.

Pre-pandemic, the most recent surge in the share of 18- to 34-year-olds living with their parents occurred between 2005 and 2015, according to data from the Census Bureau.

“Those were the times coming [during] the Great Recession and coming out of the Great Recession, and there were a lot of media narratives at the time about millennials eating too much avocado toast to live on their own,” said Joanne Hsu, a research associate professor at the University of Michigan who co-authored a 2015 study on “boomerang” kids for the Federal Reserve.

“What we found was that part of the reason we see this escalation of young adults not leaving the nest or returning to the nest is this idea that it was harder and harder for them to weather shocks,” Hsu said.

Economic shocks are significant and unexpected events that disrupt financial stability and markets, which then affect households’ income, employment and debt levels. The 2008 financial crisis, the Great Recession and the pandemic are all examples of economic shocks.

More than half of Gen Z adults say they don’t make enough money to live the life they want due to the high cost of living, according to a 2024 survey from Bank of America. A significant number of millennials and Gen Z adults lack emergency savings.

‘Why rent and give my money to someone else?’

Victoria Franklin, left, has lived with her mother, Terilyn Franklin, right, in Oceanport, New Jersey, since she graduated from college in 2019.

Natalie Rice | CNBC

Victoria Franklin, 27, moved back to her mom’s house in the summer of 2019 after graduating from college to search for a job in business administration.

“I ended up bartending and waitressing until October [of 2019], where I got my first offer,” Franklin said. “So it did take a little bit longer than I expected.”

She found a job in her field in New York City, which required a two-hour commute from her mother’s home on the Jersey Shore.

“I thought, you know, in six months or so, I’ll move into the city, be closer to the job,” Franklin said. “And the pandemic threw a wrench in those plans.”

Franklin decided to continue living at her mom’s house after switching to a fully remote job in fall 2023.

“My mentality is why rent and give my money to someone else when I can start to own?” Franklin said.

Franklin said she’s saving between 40% and 50% of her income, with “a big chunk” allocated toward a down payment on a house.

While living with parents can provide personal financial benefits, experts say this trend can negatively affect the economy.

“We do also have a situation that what is really good for an individual person or an individual family is not necessarily good for the entire macro economy,” Hsu said. “One of the big boosts to consumer spending is when people form households.”

The Federal Reserve estimated in a 2019 paper that young adults who move out of their parents’ home would spend about $13,000 more per year on things such as housing, food and transportation.

Watch the video above to learn more about why the trend of young adults living with their parents is continuing and what it means for the economy.

Personal Finance

Black Friday deals and discounts to expect this season

Published

2 days ago

November 16, 2024

Business Finance News

A customer visits Macy’s Herald Square store in New York City during early morning Black Friday sales, Nov. 24, 2023.

Kena Betancur | Getty Images

Typically, the five days beginning Thanksgiving Day and ending Cyber Monday are some of the busiest shopping days of the year.

This year, the number of people shopping in stores and online during that period could hit a new record, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey.

But consumers trying to make the most of the Black Friday sales may not be getting the best prices of the season.

According to WalletHub’s 2023 Best Things to Buy on Black Friday report, 35% of items at major retailers offered no savings compared with their pre-Black Friday prices. The site compared Black Friday advertisements against prices on Amazon earlier that fall.

“Some Black Friday deals are misleading as retailers may inflate original prices to make a deal look like a better value,” said consumer savings expert Andrea Woroch.

This year, in particular, some of the deals are already as good as they are going to get.

“Those holidays have gotten a little watered down because retailers want to maximize the selling days,” said Adam Davis, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance.

“Compounding the importance of stretching the holiday season, retailers are facing a shorter selling season between Thanksgiving and Christmas — almost a week shorter in 2024,” he said. “That will force the retailer’s hand to be pretty promotional in November.”

Concerns about shipping

There’s another good reason to shop early.

Consumers are increasingly concerned that their online orders may not arrive in time for the holiday — and rightfully so.

DHL Supply Chain’s new CEO for North America, Patrick Kelleher, recently told CNBC that items may arrive later than in years past, especially those ordered around big dates such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Retailers plan to deliver your holiday deals a little slower this year

In a period of such high volume, third-party shippers are particularly strained, according to Lauren Beitelspacher, a professor of marketing at Babson College. An ongoing labor shortage also means that some companies simply cannot hire enough workers to sort, transport and deliver packages on time.

“We are very spoiled; we got to the point where we think of something we want and it magically appears,” Beitelspacher said. But at the same time, “we’ve learned how fragile the supply chain is.”

When there are more packages to ship, shipping times increase, which can also boost the chance they may get damaged, lost or stolen en route — not to mention the risk of “porch piracy” once an item is delivered.

What discounts to expect on Black Friday

“You are easily going to see 20% to 30% off,” Davis said — but “not necessarily storewide.”

Depending on the retailer, some markdowns could be up to 50%, according to Beitelspacher. However, premium brands — including high-end activewear companies such as Nike, Alo or Lululemon — likely will not discount more than 20% or 30%, she said. “It’s a fine balance with maintaining the premium brand integrity and offering promotions.”

As in previous years, these companies are aware of how price sensitive consumers have become.

“The holidays are a time people want to treat themselves, but they also want to make their dollar last longer,” Beitelspacher said.

To that end, retailers will also try to lure shoppers to spend with incentives, such as a free gift card with a minimum purchase, Woroch said. “Many stores will also offer bonus rewards when you spend a certain amount on Black Friday.”

What not to buy on Black Friday

Typically, Black Friday is a great time to find rock-bottom prices on fall clothing — including flannels, denim, coats and accessories — as well as televisions and consumer electronics.

But hold off on beauty and footwear, which are typically better buys on Cyber Monday, Woroch said.

For those planning a trip, “Travel Tuesday” is a good time to snag discounts on airfares, cruises and tour packages, with many hotels offering 20% to 30% off best available rates. Travelers can check out Travel Tuesday deals from 2023 to get an idea of what to expect this year.

With toys, it could pay to hold out until the last two weeks of December, and holiday decorations are cheaper the last few days before Christmas or right after, according to Woroch.

Exercise equipment, linens and bedding tend to be marked down more during January’s “white sales,” she said, and furniture and mattress deals are often better over other holiday weekends throughout the year, such as Presidents’ Day, Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends.

How to get even lower prices

Woroch recommends using a price-tracking browser extension such as Honey or Camelizer to keep an eye on price changes and alert you when a price drops. Honey will also scan for applicable coupon codes.

If you are shopping in person, try the ShopSavvy app for price comparisons. If an item costs less at another store or popular site, often the retailer will match the price, Woroch said.

Further, stack discounts: Combining credit card rewards with coupon codes and a cash-back site such as CouponCabin.com will earn money back on those purchases. Then, take pictures of your receipts using the Fetch app and get points that can be redeemed for gift cards at retailers such as Walmart, Target and Amazon.

Finally, pay attention to price adjustment policies. “If an item you buy over Black Friday goes on sale for less shortly after, you may be able to request a price adjustment,” Woroch said. Some retailers such as Target have season-long policies that may apply to purchases made up until Dec. 25.