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You can bet on the words that will be said on Apple’s earnings call

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The Apple logo, taken at the Apple Store on 5th Avenue in Manhattan.

Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Wall Street is gearing up for Apple’s third-quarter results after the bell, and users on prediction platform Kalshi are betting on what will be discussed on the iPhone maker’s upcoming earnings call.

In the late morning on Thursday, Kalshi was pricing in a probability of about 90% that Apple was going to mention words like “China” and “Tariff” during the call, while the mention of “Severance” was being priced in at more than 50%.

Betting on this question has brought in almost $43,000 in trading volumes.

Apple has come under pressure to boost domestic manufacturing in recent months. In May, President Donald Trump said that Apple would have to pay a tariff of 25% or more for its iPhones not made in the U.S.

The company has since made efforts to relieve some of that pressure, announcing earlier this week that it’s going to open a manufacturing academy in downtown Detroit next month, where it plans to offer manufacturing and artificial intelligence workshops to small and medium-sized businesses.

But analysts have said that U.S.-made iPhones would make the device much more costly, as some estimates have put its price in a range of $1,500 to $3,500. The company mainly manufactures most of its iPhones in China but has expanded its production to India amid the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariffs.

The move has evidently been taking hold, as a report released this week showed that India surpassed China in smartphone exports during the second quarter.

Heading into its print, Barclays analyst Tim Long forecasts that iPhones will “struggle” due to a “rough” macroeconomic backdrop, a lack of new product and feature traction, as well as market share losses in China.

“According to Apple, the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. are expected to have India as their country of origin for the June-Q, and almost all iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods sold in the U.S. are expected to ship from Vietnam for the Q,” he wrote. “We expect AAPL could adopt other mitigation efforts … before it would turn to pricing actions, which we would expect to erode demand.”

Alongside commentary related to China tariffs, Kalshi users are expecting some discussion of the most-watched series on Apple TV+, “Severance,” which saw a boost in popularity with the premiere of its second season earlier this year.

It was officially renewed for a third season shortly after its season two finale aired in March.

Other words in the entertainment industry like “Formula 1/F1” stood at 87% odds among users. “F1: The Movie” generated more than $293 million globally just days after its release, becoming Apple’s highest-grossing theatrical film.

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Apple vs. S&P 500, year-to-date

Apple shares were near the flatline in midday trading Thursday. That put its year-to-date fall at nearly 17%, lagging the S&P 500’s rise in the period of more than 8%.

The company’s third-quarter earnings call is slated for 5 p.m. ET Thursday following the release of its quarterly results. Analysts surveyed by LSEG are expecting that Apple will see a single-digit-percentage increase in earnings and revenue for the quarter compared to the prior-year period.

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

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Treasury Yields Rise as Fed Cut Expectations Shift

Fixed-income markets recorded significant re-pricing during the week ending July 25, 2026, as a convergence of strong labor market metrics and surging energy costs drove U.S. Treasury yields higher across all maturities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.70%, reaching its highest point in several months. Institutional bond investors rapidly adjusted portfolio durations as expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve faded in response to inflation concerns.

The upward shift in sovereign yields reflects a broader fundamental reassessment of global monetary policy. Earlier in the quarter, money markets had priced in a series of rate reductions designed to support economic activity. However, with initial jobless claims falling to 187,000 and crude oil breaching $100 per barrel, fixed-income traders are pricing in a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment. The inversion between short-term Treasury bills and long-term bonds narrowed, indicating a shift toward term premium expansion.

Rising Treasury yields present both challenges and opportunities for institutional wealth managers. While commercial lenders and mortgage origination volumes face headwinds from elevated borrowing costs, fixed-income investors are locking in attractive real yields on high-quality sovereign and investment-grade corporate bonds. Institutional debt issuers, conversely, are recalibrating their capital structures, opting for shorter-term refinancing instruments or private credit facilities to avoid committing to elevated long-term coupon rates.

Navigating the current bond market landscape demands strict duration management and credit selection. Wealth advisors recommend maintaining flexible fixed-income allocations, combining short-duration Treasuries with inflation-protected securities (TIPS) to shield capital against potential energy-driven inflation spikes while earning dependable nominal income.

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

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Private Credit Expansion Transforms Corporate Loans

Private credit markets reached a pivotal milestone during the week ending July 25, 2026, as non-bank direct lending consortiums captured a record share of middle-market corporate debt originations. With commercial banks maintaining conservative credit standards and public bond yields remaining elevated, corporate borrowers are increasingly turning to private fund managers for customized capital solutions. This expansion marks a permanent structural shift in enterprise finance, establishing private credit as a primary pillar of institutional corporate liquidity.

The acceleration of private credit deals is driven by speed, deal certainty, and flexible terms. Unlike traditional syndicated bank loans that require lengthy underwriting, credit rating approvals, and public roadshows, private direct lenders can structure tailored financing packages within days. Middle-market firms facing upcoming debt maturities are utilizing private debt facilities to execute recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, and growth capital deployments without risking execution delay in public markets.

However, financial regulators and central bank supervisors are scrutinizing the sector’s rapid growth. Supervisory agencies are evaluating potential systemic risks associated with non-bank leverage, valuation transparency, and liquidity mismatches during economic downturns. Despite regulatory interest, major pension funds, insurance firms, and sovereign wealth entities continue to expand capital allocations to private credit funds, attracted by reliable floating-rate yields that outperform public fixed-income benchmarks.

As private credit matures into a dominant asset class, corporate chief financial officers must evaluate non-bank lenders alongside traditional banking relationships. Direct lending partnerships provide valuable balance sheet resilience, enabling companies to secure flexible financing terms even during periods of public market turbulence.

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Tokenized Debt Shifts How Corporate Manage Short Term Liquidity

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Tokenized Debt Shifts Corporate Liquidity

The landscape of institutional debt markets is undergoing a profound structural shift on July 21, 2026, as major corporate issuers and commercial banks rapidly accelerate the deployment of tokenized debt instruments. Data published by leading capital market consortiums indicates that primary issuances of digital commercial paper and tokenized corporate bonds have reached record volumes this month. By moving legacy debt origination, underwriting, and secondary distribution onto permissioned distributed ledgers, corporate treasurers are unlocking unprecedented operational flexibility and instantaneous cross-border liquidity.

The adoption of tokenized debt is fundamentally altering how enterprise balance sheets manage short-term liquidity needs. Traditional corporate bond settlement cycles historically required multi-day clearing processes involving numerous intermediaries, custodial entities, and clearinghouses. Through programmable smart contracts on distributed ledgers, issuers can now execute atomic settlement—enabling continuous, 24/7 access to institutional capital pools. This instantaneous clearing mechanism drastically reduces counterparty risk, eliminates costly settlement friction, and allows treasury teams to dynamically optimize working capital in real time.

A major catalyst driving this institutional migration is the establishment of comprehensive digital asset regulatory frameworks across major financial hubs. Clear legal guidelines regarding ledger-based securities ownership have provided institutional compliance officers with the regulatory confidence necessary to transition multi-billion-dollar liquidity facilities onto digital platforms. Furthermore, the integration of automated regulatory reporting directly into token smart contracts simplifies ongoing compliance audits, ensuring that secondary market trades automatically enforce investor accreditation limits and tax withholding requirements.

For chief financial officers and institutional portfolio managers, tokenized debt represents a fundamental evolution in fixed-income strategy. Companies that embrace ledger-based debt structures gain direct access to a broader, global base of digital-native institutional investors while substantially reducing borrowing overhead. As ledger interoperability continues to improve across global exchanges, tokenized debt is poised to become the standard infrastructure for global corporate finance.

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