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You can bet on the words that will be said on Apple’s earnings call

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The Apple logo, taken at the Apple Store on 5th Avenue in Manhattan.

Sven Hoppe | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Wall Street is gearing up for Apple’s third-quarter results after the bell, and users on prediction platform Kalshi are betting on what will be discussed on the iPhone maker’s upcoming earnings call.

In the late morning on Thursday, Kalshi was pricing in a probability of about 90% that Apple was going to mention words like “China” and “Tariff” during the call, while the mention of “Severance” was being priced in at more than 50%.

Betting on this question has brought in almost $43,000 in trading volumes.

Apple has come under pressure to boost domestic manufacturing in recent months. In May, President Donald Trump said that Apple would have to pay a tariff of 25% or more for its iPhones not made in the U.S.

The company has since made efforts to relieve some of that pressure, announcing earlier this week that it’s going to open a manufacturing academy in downtown Detroit next month, where it plans to offer manufacturing and artificial intelligence workshops to small and medium-sized businesses.

But analysts have said that U.S.-made iPhones would make the device much more costly, as some estimates have put its price in a range of $1,500 to $3,500. The company mainly manufactures most of its iPhones in China but has expanded its production to India amid the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariffs.

The move has evidently been taking hold, as a report released this week showed that India surpassed China in smartphone exports during the second quarter.

Heading into its print, Barclays analyst Tim Long forecasts that iPhones will “struggle” due to a “rough” macroeconomic backdrop, a lack of new product and feature traction, as well as market share losses in China.

“According to Apple, the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. are expected to have India as their country of origin for the June-Q, and almost all iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and AirPods sold in the U.S. are expected to ship from Vietnam for the Q,” he wrote. “We expect AAPL could adopt other mitigation efforts … before it would turn to pricing actions, which we would expect to erode demand.”

Alongside commentary related to China tariffs, Kalshi users are expecting some discussion of the most-watched series on Apple TV+, “Severance,” which saw a boost in popularity with the premiere of its second season earlier this year.

It was officially renewed for a third season shortly after its season two finale aired in March.

Other words in the entertainment industry like “Formula 1/F1” stood at 87% odds among users. “F1: The Movie” generated more than $293 million globally just days after its release, becoming Apple’s highest-grossing theatrical film.

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Apple vs. S&P 500, year-to-date

Apple shares were near the flatline in midday trading Thursday. That put its year-to-date fall at nearly 17%, lagging the S&P 500’s rise in the period of more than 8%.

The company’s third-quarter earnings call is slated for 5 p.m. ET Thursday following the release of its quarterly results. Analysts surveyed by LSEG are expecting that Apple will see a single-digit-percentage increase in earnings and revenue for the quarter compared to the prior-year period.

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Big Tech Enterprise Borrowing Reaches $135 Billion as Hyperscalers Fund AI Infrastructure

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Big Tech Enterprise Borrowing Reaches $135 Billion

Corporate debt markets are undergoing a major structural shift as major technology hyperscalers execute unprecedented debt offerings to finance large-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure. According to institutional market estimates, the annual value of debt issued by top technology firms reached $135 billion in 2026, marking a massive increase from the $35 billion annual average recorded between 2020 and 2024. This wave of corporate borrowing reflects the immense capital required to build next-generation data centers, secure specialized silicon, and build energy infrastructure.

The scale of AI-driven capital expenditures is reshaping corporate finance frameworks. While tech giants historically maintained fortress balance sheets dominated by cash reserves and minimal debt liabilities, the speed of the AI infrastructure deployment race has led corporate treasurers to access debt capital markets. These multi-billion-dollar corporate bond issuances are competing directly with sovereign debt for institutional investment capital.

Credit rating agencies and fixed income analysts are evaluating the long-term balance sheet implications of this corporate borrowing boom. While technology hyperscalers possess substantial revenue streams and strong operating margins, the high interest rate environment means new debt issuances carry higher coupon burdens. Financial analysts are closely tracking return-on-investment (ROI) metrics to ensure capital outlays generate sufficient cash flow to service expanding debt obligations over the coming decade.

Despite elevated borrowing costs, primary market demand for high-grade technology bonds remains robust. Institutional asset managers, pension funds, and insurance firms are absorbing new issuances, attracted by investment-grade credit ratings and attractive yields. However, the concentration of corporate debt issuance within the technology sector highlights growing exposure to enterprise technology spend cycles.

Why This Information Matters
The massive surge in technology sector debt issuance impacts broader credit markets and institutional liquidity. For corporate leaders and investors, understanding how major enterprise tech firms fund infrastructure expansion provides key insights into market interest rate dynamics, corporate credit availability, and the long-term ROI expectations driving modern corporate finance.

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S&P 500 Outperforms Amid Strong Corporate Earnings as Treasury Yields Cap Equity Multiples

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S&P 500 Outperforms Amid Strong Corporate Earnings as Treasury Yields Cap Equity Multiples

Financial markets opened September on a firm footing following a solid performance in August, where the S&P 500 gained 2.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 3.9%. Corporate earnings across major index constituents showed impressive momentum, with S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth topping historic averages. However, despite robust corporate balance sheets, equity market valuations face headwinds as benchmark 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated near 4.75%.

The current financial environment is characterized by a strong divergence between corporate earnings resilience and bond market pressure. Enterprise technology leaders, financial institutions, and consumer sectors reported strong profit margins, benefiting from operational efficiency gains and disciplined cost management. Yet, institutional investors remain cautious about expanding price-to-earnings multiples when risk-free benchmark bond yields offer yields near 4.7%.

Fixed income markets continue to reflect restrictive monetary conditions. The broader aggregate bond market recorded flat total returns year-to-date, while fixed income yields—such as 30-day SEC yields on core bond funds—stayed above 4.6%. This yield profile provides institutional and retail investors with meaningful cash flow returns without taking on equity market downside risk, creating a competitive alternative for institutional capital allocation.

Portfolio managers and investment strategists recommend a disciplined, quality-oriented approach entering the final quarter of 2026. Rather than chasing speculative momentum, capital flows are favoring companies with strong cash flow generation, low debt-to-equity ratios, and robust pricing power capable of withstanding elevated input costs.

Why This Information Matters
The tension between strong corporate earnings and elevated bond yields directly impacts portfolio allocations and retirement wealth. Individual investors and wealth managers must balance equity market participation with fixed-income yield opportunities, ensuring portfolios are diversified against sudden valuation adjustments caused by fluctuating benchmark interest rates.

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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