President-elect Donald Trump has been vocal about potentially raising tariffs on imported goods, which experts say could bump up car prices.

Trump has talked about implementing an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imported goods, as well as adding tariffs of 25% on all products from Mexico and Canada. On Friday, Trump told the European Union it must reduce its trade gap with the U.S. by purchasing oil and gas, or it could face tariffs as well.

Tariffs are taxes on imported goods, paid by U.S. companies that import those goods.

Tariffs have the potential to disproportionately affect auto prices because materials used to assemble a vehicle come from different parts of the world. Some components even cross U.S. borders multiple times before they even get to the factory, according to Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.

“There’s no such thing as a 100% American vehicle,” said Drury. “There’s so much complexity, even though it’s a seemingly straightforward thing.”

Component tariffs could add $600 to $2,500 per vehicle on parts from Mexico, Canada and China, according to estimates in a Wells Fargo analyst note. Prices on vehicles assembled in Mexico and Canada — which account for about 23% of vehicles sold in the U.S. — could rise $1,750 to $10,000.

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If tariffs are enacted, the sticker price drivers pay at the dealership will eventually go up, experts say. But carmakers and sellers may have to bear some of the costs, too. 

“The cost will spread across all stakeholders: automakers, dealers and consumers,” said Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive. “No one company is going to dump all of that expense directly on their consumers.” 

Here’s what to know.

The average transaction price for new cars is expected to hover between $47,000 and $48,000, according to Keating. As of November, the average price was $48,724, 1.5% higher from a year before, per Kelley Blue Book data.

While the average price is higher than pre-pandemic levels, “the good news is it’s relatively stable. We’re not vacillating all over the place,” Keating said. 

As of December, average auto loan rates for new cars are at 9.01% while borrowing costs for used vehicles are at 13.76%, per Cox Automotive. The average rates for both types of loans are down about a full percentage point from a 24-year high earlier this year.

“We expect that consumers may see even lower rates by spring, which would create the most normal and favorable buying environment since 2019,” Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive, wrote in the report.

For now, experts are optimistic for the auto market next year as inventory and deal opportunities grow.

“Tariffs or no tariffs, there will be more incentives,” Drury said.

“I don’t want a lot for Christmas / There is just one thing I need / An answer to just one question / An estimate of Mariah Carey’s song royalties, please?”

No, my makeshift lyrics aren’t as catchy as the opening lines of Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You,” the 1994 jingle that became practically ubiquitous over the airwaves around holiday season.

But they do pose a question that probes into the black box of music-industry economics: How much money does the song earn for Carey, the song’s performer and so-called “Queen of Christmas,” each year?

Revenue estimates by Billboard suggest she made perhaps $2.7 million to $3.3 million in 2022, for example, from song downloads and on-demand streaming. It excludes other potentially lucrative revenue streams like Christmas TV specials.

But it’s hard to know a precise sum, largely because contractual details between Carey, her music label and song publishers aren’t public, experts said. The pop star’s publicist, Chris Chambers, didn’t return a request for comment submitted to his firm, The Chamber Group, about her royalties.

“Whatever it is, it’s a lot of money,” said Natasha Chee, a music, entertainment and intellectual property attorney at law firm Donahue Fitzgerald.

Spotify announced this month that the anthem was the first-ever holiday song to surpass 2 billion global streams. It has been the No. 1 song globally on Christmas Day each year since 2016, Spotify said.

The tune’s popularity has only grown: Total U.S. audio streams rose to 249 million in 2023, up about 49% from 167 million in 2019, according to Luminate, which tracks music industry data.

(As of Dec. 12, total U.S. streams of the song this year were down 8% relative to 2023, Billboard estimated. That’s partly a function of the shorter holiday season from a late Thanksgiving, experts said.)

The song “is a money machine,” said George Howard, a professor at the Berklee College of Music and former president of Rykodisc, an independent record label. “It’s a real phenomenon,” he said.

Howard, who also does consulting work to value music copyrights, estimates the chart-topper makes $2 million to $4 million in annual gross revenue.

Similarly, Manatt, Phelps & Phillips, which specializes in music industry law, estimates the hit generates $3.4 million a year.

Over its 30-year existence, the song has made about $103 million in earnings, the law firm estimates. The projections include global streaming and non-streaming revenue sources, according to Manatt, which created Billboard’s royalty calculator.

The song’s 2 billion global Spotify streams alone earned $9.8 million in royalties, according to the calculator.

But Carey only gets a portion of those earnings.

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Music royalties are different from those of other works like books or photography.

That’s because there are two distinct royalty streams — one for music composition and another for sound recording, said Jordan Bromley, partner and head of Manatt Entertainment. Think of the former like the sheet music sitting on your piano (the songwriting), and the latter as the recorded song that you hear, he said.

Each has its own royalty structure. The royalties for music composition are received by songwriters and publishers, while those for sound recording are paid to song performers and their labels, Howard said.

Carey “has both the copyright to the song and the sound recording, so she’s getting paid on both sides,” Howard said.

“She’s getting paid six ways to Sunday,” he said.

A song’s writers and publishers — and not its performers — get the royalties when a song plays in a public space, such as on TV and radio, or in restaurants and retail stores, experts said. The U.S. is one of the few countries to have such a rule, Howard said.

This means that Carey (and Afanasieff, her co-writer) gets royalties whenever a cover version of “All I Want for Christmas Is You” plays in the public domain. Over 150 performers have covered the song, according to ASCAP, a performing rights organization.

Carey and Afanasieff split their writing credits with publishers including Universal Music, Sony Music and Kobalt Songs Music Publishing, according to ASCAP.

However, song recording generally brings in four to five times the revenue of songwriting, Bromley said.

“If you’re a songwriter with no record revenue, it’s hard to make a living even if you’re making hits,” he said.

The artist’s take of the recording revenue relative to the label’s can swing widely, anywhere from 20% up to 90%, depending on the contract, Bromley said. “All I Want for Christmas Is You” was released by Columbia Records, which is owned by Sony Music.

Afanasieff, Sony Music and Kobalt Songs Music Publishing didn’t return requests for comment. Universal Music Publishing Group declined comment.

The copyright for works published after Jan. 1, 1978, generally remains intact for the author’s lifetime, plus 70 years after the author’s death, according to Chee of Donahue Fitzgerald.

In the case of a joint work with two or more authors, such as “All I Want for Christmas Is You,” the rule applies to the last surviving author.

That means Carey’s estate will likely rake in royalties for decades, until the song eventually passes into the public domain, she said. When that happens, the song would join the ranks of Christmas classics like “Jingle Bells” and “We Wish You a Merry Christmas,” which can generally be freely shared and adapted.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the third time in 2024. Despite the move, mortgage rates increased.

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage spiked to 6.72% for the week ending Dec. 19, a day after the Fed meeting, according to Freddie Mac data via the Fed. That’s up from 6.60% from a week prior.

At an intraday level, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased to 7.13% on Wednesday, up from 6.92% the day before, per Mortgage News Daily. It notched up to 7.14% on Thursday.

The dot plot, which indicates individual members’ expectations for rates, showed officials see their benchmark lending rate falling to 3.9% by the end of 2025, equal to target range of 3.75% to 4%. After the latest rate cut, it’s currently at 4.25%-4.5%.

When the Fed made its first rate cut in September, it had projected four quarter-point cuts, or a full percentage point reduction, for 2025.

“That, in conjunction with Trump’s desired policies on tariffs, immigration and tax cuts — which are all inflationary — spooked the bond market,” Cohn said.

Mortgage rates also tend to move in anticipation of what the Fed is going to do in its upcoming meetings, said Jacob Channel, a senior economist at LendingTree.

For instance, mortgage rates declined this summer and early fall, in anticipation of the first interest rate cut since March 2020.

Therefore, mortgage rates might not do “anything particularly dramatic” in the face of the Fed’s actual meeting, he said.