While there hasn’t been much hiring for so-called “white collar” jobs, the contraction is not because of artificial intelligence, economists say. At least, not yet.

Professional and business services, the industry that represents white-collar roles and middle and upper-class, educated workers, hasn’t experienced much hiring activity over the past two years.

In May, job growth in professional and business services declined to -0.4%, slightly down from -0.2% in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In other words, the sector has been losing job opportunities, according to Cory Stahle, an economist at job search site Indeed.

Meanwhile, industries like health care, construction and manufacturing have seen more job creation. In May, nearly half of the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000 jobs, the bureau found.

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However, economists have said that the decline in white-collar job openings is more driven by structural issues in the economy rather than artificial intelligence technology taking people’s jobs. 

“We know for a fact that it’s not AI,” said Alí Bustamante, an economist and director at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank.

Indeed’s Stahle agreed: “This is more of an economic story and less of an AI disruption story, at least so far.”

A 2024 report by Indeed researchers found that of the more than 2,800 unique work skills identified, none are “very likely” to be replaced by generative artificial intelligence. GenAI creates content like text or images based on existing data.

Across five scenarios — “very unlikely,” “unlikely,” “possible,” “likely” and “very likely” — about 68.7% of skills were either “very unlikely” or “unlikely” to be replaced by GenAI technology, the site found. 

“We might get to a point where they do, but right now, that’s not necessarily looking like it’s a big factor,” Stahle said. 

Stahle said that openings for consulting jobs focused on implementing generative AI have been rising. Over the past year, management consulting roles with AI language accounted for 12.4% of GenAI postings, showing signs of growing demand, per a February report by Indeed.

A separate report by the World Economic Forum in January forecasts that by 2030, the new technology will create 170 million new jobs, or 14% of the current total employment.

However, that growth could be offset by the decline in existing roles. The report cites that about 92 million jobs, or 8% of the current total employment, could be displaced by AI technology.

For knowledge-based workers whose skills may overlap with AI, consider investing in developing skills on how to use AI technology to stay ahead, Stahle said.

Ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, tensions are escalating between the White House and the central bank, with consumers seemingly caught in the crossfire.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “numbskull” for not lowering interest rates already.

Trump has previously said the central bank should cut interest rates by a full percentage point. “Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday.

Vice President JD Vance echoed the president’s message in a social media post Wednesday on X, after a key inflation reading came in slightly better than expected.

“The president has been saying this for a while, but it’s even more clear: the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice,” Vance wrote.

The president has argued that maintaining a fed funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower rates. The Fed’s benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on almost all of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day.

Still, so far, Trump’s comments have had no impact and experts say the Fed is likely to hold its benchmark steady again when it meets next week — even as the political pressure to slash rates ramps up significantly.

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Since December, the federal funds rate has been in a target range of between 4.25%-4.5% and futures market pricing is implying virtually no chance of an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

In prepared remarks last month, Powell said that the federal funds rate is likely to stay higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux. He has also said repeatedly that politics will not play a role in the Fed’s policy decisions.

But Trump, who nominated Powell to head of the nation’s central bank in 2018, has publicly berated the Fed’s decision-making. 

As it stands, market pricing indicates the Fed is unlikely to consider further interest rate cuts until at least September. Once the fed funds rate comes down, consumers could see their borrowing costs start to fall as well, which some may consider a welcome change.

“The idea of lower interest rates is often romanticized from the borrowers’ perspective,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

“The reason for lower rates is what really matters,” McBride said. “We want the fed to be cutting rates because inflationary pressures are receding.”

For now, “inflation is still higher than desired,” he added.

The risk is that reducing rates too soon could halt or reverse progress on tamping down inflation, according to Mark Higgins, senior vice president at Index Fund Advisors and author of “Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future.”

“Now you have a situation where Trump is willing to pressure the Fed to lower rates while they have less flexibility to do that,” he said. “They have to keep rates higher for longer to extinguish inflation.”

Despite the softer-than-expected inflation data, central bank officials have said that they will wait until there’s more clarity about Trump’s tariff agenda before they consider lowering rates again.

The White House has said that tariffs will not cause runaway inflation, with the expectation that foreign producers would absorb much of the costs themselves. However, many economists believe that the full effect from tariffs could show up later in the summer as surplus inventories draw down.

For consumers waiting for borrowing costs to ease, they may be better off of the Fed sticks to its current monetary policy, according to Higgins.

“There’s this temptation to move fast and that is counterproductive,” Higgins said. “If the Fed prematurely lowers rates, it’s going to allow inflation to reignite and then they will have to raise rates again.”

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The Senate on Thursday confirmed Billy Long as the next IRS Commissioner, which could mark a shift for taxpayers amid sweeping agency cuts.

Picked by President Donald Trump, the former Missouri Congressman’s nomination received mixed support from Washington and the tax community. But Senate Republicans confirmed Long via a party-line vote.

During the confirmation process, Long faced Democratic scrutiny over Trump loyalties and ties to dubious tax credits, among other questions, which he addressed during a May Senate Finance Committee hearing and written testimony. 

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When asked about Trump’s power over the agency during the May Senate hearing, Long said: “The IRS will not, should not be politicized on my watch.”

In written testimony, Long said he would “follow the law” when asked for specifics about how he would respond to political favor requests from Trump.

“The confirmation process was pretty controversial,” said Carl Tobias, law professor at University of Richmond’s School of Law.

But it’s currently unclear what Long as IRS Commissioner will mean for taxpayers, he said.

Long’s confirmation comes amid widespread IRS cuts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

The hiring freeze, deferred resignation programs and reductions in force “will have significant impacts” on IRS operations, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, or TIGTA, said in a June 6 report.

A separate TIGTA report from May found the agency had lost nearly one-third of its so-called revenue agents, who conduct audits, as of March 2025.

The “tax gap” — federal levies incurred but not paid voluntarily on time — was estimated at $696 billion for tax year 2022, according to the latest IRS data.

When asked about the tax gap, Long answered in written testimony: “My goal is to modernize and streamline the IRS, so we are collecting the maximum amount owed each year.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s fiscal 2026 budget request calls for a 37% reduction in IRS spending, including staffing and technology cuts. These reductions could impact revenue collections, according to a Budget Lab at Yale analysis.

In a May House Appropriations subcommittee hearing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “collections” were among his IRS priorities. He said “smarter IT” and the “AI boom” could help meet revenue goals.

In 2022, Congress approved nearly $80 billion in IRS funding, with more than half earmarked for enforcement of corporate and high-net-worth tax dodgers. That funding has since been targeted by Republicans.

As the agency faces cuts, it could also soon see more administrative work once Republicans enact sweeping tax changes via Trump’s big beautiful spending bill.

For example, one provision would require precertification of each qualifying child for filers claiming the earned income tax credit. This could be challenging amid staffing cuts, experts say.