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The Fed is on course to cut interest rates in December, but what happens next is anyone’s guess

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Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during the New York Times DealBook Summit at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024.

Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Friday’s jobs report virtually cements that the Federal Reserve will approve an interest rate cut when it meets later this month. Whether it should, and what it does from there, is another matter.

The not-too-hot, not-too-cold nature of the November nonfarm payrolls release gave the central bank whatever remaining leeway it may have needed to move, and the market responded in kind by raising the implied probability of a reduction to close to 90%, according to a CME Group gauge.

However, the central bank in the coming days is likely to face a vigorous debate over just how fast and how far it should go.

“Financial conditions have eased massively. What the Fed runs the risk of here is creating a speculative bubble,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” said after the report’s release. “There’s no reason to cut rates right now. They should pause.”

LaVorgna, who served as a senior economist during Donald Trump’s first presidential term and could serve in the White House again, wasn’t alone in his skepticism about a Fed cut.

Chris Rupkey, senior economist at FWDBONDS, wrote that the Fed “does not need to be tinkering with measures to boost the economy as jobs are plentiful,” adding that the central bank’s stated intention to keep reducing rates looks “to be increasingly unwise as the inflation fire has not been put out.”

Appearing along with LaVorgna on CNBC, Jason Furman, himself a former White House economist under Barack Obama, also expressed caution, particularly on inflation. Furman noted that the recent pace of average hourly earnings increases is more consistent with an inflation rate of 3.5%, not the 2% the Fed prefers.

“This is another data point in the no-landing scenario,” Furman said of the jobs report, using a term that refers to an economy in which growth continues but also sparks more inflation.

“I’ve no doubt the Fed will cut again, but when they cut again after December is anyone’s guess, and I think it will take more of an increase in unemployment,” he added.

Factors in the decision

In the interim, policymakers will have a mountain of information to plow through.

To start: November’s payrolls data showed an increase of 227,000, slightly better than expected and a big step up from October’s paltry 36,000. Adding the two month’s together — October was hampered by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike — nets an average of 131,500, or slightly below the trend since the labor market first started to wobble in April.

But even with the unemployment rate ticking up 4.2% amid a pullback in household employment, the jobs picture still looks solid if not spectacular. Payrolls still have not decreased in a single month since December 2020.

There are other factors, though.

Inflation has started ticking up lately, with the Fed’s preferred measure moving up to 2.3% in October, or 2.8% when excluding food and energy prices. Wage gains also continue to be robust, with the current 4% easily surpassing the pre-Covid period going back to at least 2008. Then there’s the issue of Trump’s fiscal policy when he begins his second term and whether his plans to issue punitive tariffs will stoke inflation even further.

In the meantime, the broader economy has been growing strongly. The fourth quarter is on track to post a 3.3% annualized growth rate for gross domestic product, according to the Atlanta Fed.

Then there’s the issue of “financial conditions,” a metric that includes such things as Treasury and corporate bond yields, stock market prices, mortgage rates and the like. Fed officials believe the current range in their overnight borrowing rate of 4.5%-4.75% is “restrictive.” However, by the Fed’s own measure, financial conditions are at their loosest since January.

Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell praised the U.S. economy, calling it the envy of the developed world and said it provided cushion for policymakers to move slowly as they recalibrate policy.

In remarks Friday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted the strong growth and said she needed more evidence that inflation is moving convincingly toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Hammack advocated for the Fed to slow down its pace of rate cuts. If it follows through on the December reduction, that will equate to a full percentage point move lower since September.

Looking for neutral

“To balance the need to maintain a modestly restrictive stance for monetary policy with the possibility that policy may not be far from neutral, I believe we are at or near the point where it makes sense to slow the pace of rate reductions,” said Hammack, a voting member this year on the Federal Open Market Committee.

The only thing left on the docket that could dissuade the Fed from a December cut is the release next week of separate reports on consumer and producer prices. The consumer price index is projected to show a 2.7% gain. Fed officials enter their quiet period after Friday when they do not deliver policy addresses before the meeting.

The issue of the “neutral” rate that neither restricts nor boosts growth is central to how the Fed will conduct policy. Recent indications are that the level may be higher than it has been in previous economic climates.

What the Fed could do is enact the December cut, skip January, as traders are anticipating, and maybe cut once more in early 2025 before taking a break, said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PFIM Fixed Income.

“I don’t think there’s anything in today’s data that would actually stop them from cutting in December,” Porcelli said. “When they lifted rates as much as they did, it was for a completely different inflation regime than we have right now. So in that context, I think Powell would like to continue the process of normalizing policy.”

Powell and his fellow policymakers say they are now casting equal attention on controlling inflation and supporting the labor market, whereas previously the focus was much more on prices.

“If you want until you see cracks from a labor market perspective and then you start to adjust policy down, it’s too late,” he said. “So prudence would really suggest that you start that process now.”

Economics

Producer price index November 2024

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A measure of wholesale prices rose more than expected in November as questions percolated over whether progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

The producer price index, or PPI, which measures what producers get for their products at the final-demand stage, increased 0.4% for the month, higher than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 0.2%. On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023.

However, excluding food and energy, core PPI increased 0.2%, meeting the forecast. Also, subtracting trade services left the PPI increase at just 0.1%. The year-over-year increase of 3.5% also was the most since February 2023.

In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that first-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending Dec. 7, considerably higher than the 220,000 forecast and up 17,000 from the prior period.

On the inflation front, the news was mixed.

Final-demand goods prices leaped 0.7% on the month, the biggest move since February of this year. Some 80% of the move came from a 3.1% surge in food prices, according to the BLS.

Within the food category, chicken eggs soared 54.6%, joining an across-the-board acceleration in items such as dry vegetables, fresh fruits and poultry. Egg prices at the retail level swelled 8.2% on the month and were up 37.5% from a year ago, the BLS said in a separate report Wednesday on consumer prices.

Services costs rose 0.2%, pushed higher by a 0.8% increase in trade.

The PPI release comes a day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index, or CPI, a more widely cited inflation gauge, also nudged higher in November to 2.7% on a 12-month basis and 0.3% month over month.

Despite the seemingly stubborn state of inflation, markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to lower its key overnight borrowing rate next week. Futures markets traders are implying a near certainty to a quarter percentage point reduction when the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee concludes its meeting Wednesday.

Following the release, economists generally viewed the data this week as mostly benign, with underlying indicators still pointing towards enough disinflation to get the Fed back to its 2% target eventually.

The Fed uses the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, as its primary inflation gauge and forecasting tool. However, data from the CPI and PPI feed into that measure.

An Atlanta Fed tracker is putting November PCE at 2.6%, up 0.3 percentage point from October, and core PCE at 3%, up 0.2 percentage point. The Fed generally considers core a better long-run indicator. A few economists said the details in the report point to a smaller monthly rise in PCE inflation than they had previously expected.

“It appears that only an exogenous shock such as dramatic tariff policy shifts would be capable of derailing supply-side contributions toward inflation’s return to the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% average goal in the near term,” PNC senior economist Kurt Rankin wrote.

Stock market futures were slightly in negative territory following the economic news. Treasury yields were mixed while the odds of a rate cut next week were still around 98%, according to the CME Group.

One reason markets expect the Fed to cut, even amid stubborn inflation, is that Fed officials are growing more concerned about the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls have posted gains every month since December 2020, but the increases have slowed lately, and Thursday brought news that layoffs could be increasing as unemployment lasts longer.

Jobless claims posted their highest level since early October, while continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged higher to 1.89 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, rose to its highest level in just over four years.

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Economics

The Young Thug trial could be Fani Willis’s last big act

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It is a result that has the government licking its wounds. In May 2022 Fulton County prosecutors indicted 28 men from Cleveland Avenue, a rough part of Atlanta, for committing a string of killings, robberies and drug deals in service of a street gang led by Jeffery Williams, a rapper who goes by the name “Young Thug”. Over the past year the state presented a Georgia jury with nearly 200 witnesses and a barrage of rap verses that, it argued, proved that “YSL”, used to denote Mr Williams’s platinum-selling record label “Young Stoner Life”, also stood for “Young Slime Life” and was an affiliate of the notorious Bloods gang from Los Angeles. But when the alleged kingpin pleaded guilty in late October to overseeing crimes the judge chose to ignore the state’s recommendation to lock him up for decades, opting instead for 15 years probation and banishing him from Atlanta for ten.

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Economics

The Young Thug trial could be the district attorney’s last big act

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It is a result that has the government licking its wounds. In May 2022 Fulton County prosecutors indicted 28 men from Cleveland Avenue, a rough part of Atlanta, for committing a string of killings, robberies and drug deals in service of a street gang led by Jeffery Williams, a rapper who goes by the name “Young Thug”. Over the past year the state presented a Georgia jury with nearly 200 witnesses and a barrage of rap verses that, it argued, proved that “YSL”, used to denote Mr Williams’s platinum-selling record label “Young Stoner Life”, also stood for “Young Slime Life” and was an affiliate of the notorious Bloods gang from Los Angeles. But when the alleged kingpin pleaded guilty in late October to overseeing crimes the judge chose to ignore the state’s recommendation to lock him up for decades, opting instead for 15 years probation and banishing him from Atlanta for ten.

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