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The Fed is on course to cut interest rates in December, but what happens next is anyone’s guess

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Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during the New York Times DealBook Summit at Jazz at Lincoln Center in New York, US, on Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024.

Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Friday’s jobs report virtually cements that the Federal Reserve will approve an interest rate cut when it meets later this month. Whether it should, and what it does from there, is another matter.

The not-too-hot, not-too-cold nature of the November nonfarm payrolls release gave the central bank whatever remaining leeway it may have needed to move, and the market responded in kind by raising the implied probability of a reduction to close to 90%, according to a CME Group gauge.

However, the central bank in the coming days is likely to face a vigorous debate over just how fast and how far it should go.

“Financial conditions have eased massively. What the Fed runs the risk of here is creating a speculative bubble,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” said after the report’s release. “There’s no reason to cut rates right now. They should pause.”

LaVorgna, who served as a senior economist during Donald Trump’s first presidential term and could serve in the White House again, wasn’t alone in his skepticism about a Fed cut.

Chris Rupkey, senior economist at FWDBONDS, wrote that the Fed “does not need to be tinkering with measures to boost the economy as jobs are plentiful,” adding that the central bank’s stated intention to keep reducing rates looks “to be increasingly unwise as the inflation fire has not been put out.”

Appearing along with LaVorgna on CNBC, Jason Furman, himself a former White House economist under Barack Obama, also expressed caution, particularly on inflation. Furman noted that the recent pace of average hourly earnings increases is more consistent with an inflation rate of 3.5%, not the 2% the Fed prefers.

“This is another data point in the no-landing scenario,” Furman said of the jobs report, using a term that refers to an economy in which growth continues but also sparks more inflation.

“I’ve no doubt the Fed will cut again, but when they cut again after December is anyone’s guess, and I think it will take more of an increase in unemployment,” he added.

Factors in the decision

In the interim, policymakers will have a mountain of information to plow through.

To start: November’s payrolls data showed an increase of 227,000, slightly better than expected and a big step up from October’s paltry 36,000. Adding the two month’s together — October was hampered by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike — nets an average of 131,500, or slightly below the trend since the labor market first started to wobble in April.

But even with the unemployment rate ticking up 4.2% amid a pullback in household employment, the jobs picture still looks solid if not spectacular. Payrolls still have not decreased in a single month since December 2020.

There are other factors, though.

Inflation has started ticking up lately, with the Fed’s preferred measure moving up to 2.3% in October, or 2.8% when excluding food and energy prices. Wage gains also continue to be robust, with the current 4% easily surpassing the pre-Covid period going back to at least 2008. Then there’s the issue of Trump’s fiscal policy when he begins his second term and whether his plans to issue punitive tariffs will stoke inflation even further.

In the meantime, the broader economy has been growing strongly. The fourth quarter is on track to post a 3.3% annualized growth rate for gross domestic product, according to the Atlanta Fed.

Then there’s the issue of “financial conditions,” a metric that includes such things as Treasury and corporate bond yields, stock market prices, mortgage rates and the like. Fed officials believe the current range in their overnight borrowing rate of 4.5%-4.75% is “restrictive.” However, by the Fed’s own measure, financial conditions are at their loosest since January.

Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell praised the U.S. economy, calling it the envy of the developed world and said it provided cushion for policymakers to move slowly as they recalibrate policy.

In remarks Friday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted the strong growth and said she needed more evidence that inflation is moving convincingly toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Hammack advocated for the Fed to slow down its pace of rate cuts. If it follows through on the December reduction, that will equate to a full percentage point move lower since September.

Looking for neutral

“To balance the need to maintain a modestly restrictive stance for monetary policy with the possibility that policy may not be far from neutral, I believe we are at or near the point where it makes sense to slow the pace of rate reductions,” said Hammack, a voting member this year on the Federal Open Market Committee.

The only thing left on the docket that could dissuade the Fed from a December cut is the release next week of separate reports on consumer and producer prices. The consumer price index is projected to show a 2.7% gain. Fed officials enter their quiet period after Friday when they do not deliver policy addresses before the meeting.

The issue of the “neutral” rate that neither restricts nor boosts growth is central to how the Fed will conduct policy. Recent indications are that the level may be higher than it has been in previous economic climates.

What the Fed could do is enact the December cut, skip January, as traders are anticipating, and maybe cut once more in early 2025 before taking a break, said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PFIM Fixed Income.

“I don’t think there’s anything in today’s data that would actually stop them from cutting in December,” Porcelli said. “When they lifted rates as much as they did, it was for a completely different inflation regime than we have right now. So in that context, I think Powell would like to continue the process of normalizing policy.”

Powell and his fellow policymakers say they are now casting equal attention on controlling inflation and supporting the labor market, whereas previously the focus was much more on prices.

“If you want until you see cracks from a labor market perspective and then you start to adjust policy down, it’s too late,” he said. “So prudence would really suggest that you start that process now.”

Economics

Fed ‘Beige Book’ economic report cites declining growth, rising prices and slow hiring

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A store closing sign is displayed as customers shop during the last day of a store closing sale at a JOANN Fabric and Crafts location in a shopping mall following the company’s bankruptcy in Torrance, California on May 27, 2025.

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

The U.S. economy contracted over the past six weeks as hiring slowed and consumers and businesses worried about tariff-related price increases, according to a Federal Reserve report Wednesday.

In its periodic “Beige Book” summary of conditions, the central bank noted that “economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report” released April 23.

“All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions,” the report added.

Hiring was “little changed” across most of the Fed’s 12 districts, with seven describing employment as “flat” amid widespread growth in applicants and lower turnover rates.

“All Districts described lower labor demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses, and staff reduction plans. Some Districts reported layoffs in certain sectors, but these layoffs were not pervasive,” the report said.

On inflation, the report described prices as rising “at a moderate pace.”

“There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward. A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial,” it said. “All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices.”

There were disparities, though, over expectations for how much prices would rise, with some businesses saying they might reduce profit margins or add “temporary fees or surcharges.”

“Contacts that plan to pass along tariff-related costs expect to do so within three months,” the report said.

The report covers a period of a shifting landscape for President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

In early May, Trump said he would relax so-called reciprocal tariffs against China, which responded in kind, helping to set off a rally on Wall Street amid hopes that the duties would not be as draconian as initially feared.

However, fears linger over the inflationary impact as well as whether hiring and the broader economy would slow because of slowdowns associated with the tariffs.

Tariffs were mentioned 122 times in Thursday’s report, compared to 107 times in April.

Regionally, Boston, New York and Philadelphia all reported declining economic activity. Richmond, Atlanta and Chicago were among the districts reporting better growth.

In New York specifically, the Fed found “heightened uncertainty” and input prices that “grew strongly with tariff-inducted cost increases. Richmond reported a slight increase in hiring despite Trump’s efforts to trim the federal government payroll.

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Economics

Meet SCOTUSbot, our AI tool to predict Supreme Court rulings

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This June may be the most harried for the Supreme Court’s justices in some time. On top of 30-odd rulings due by Independence Day, the court faces a steady stream of emergency pleas. Over 16 years, George W. Bush and Barack Obama filed a total of eight emergency applications in the Supreme Court (SCOTUS). In the past 20 weeks, as many of his executive orders have been blocked by lower courts, Donald Trump has filed 18.

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The euro zone is ready for a new member: Bulgaria

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A worker counts Bulgarian Lev banknotes at a store in Sofia, Bulgaria, on Friday, March 29, 2024.

Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Bulgaria on Wednesday secured the green light to join the euro zone, meaning the bloc could soon grow from 20 to 21 members.

The European Commission and European Central Bank both assessed that the country met the requirements to adopt the single currency starting next year.

“This positive assessment of convergence paves the way for Bulgaria to introduce the euro as of 1 January 2026 and become the 21st EU Member State to join the euro area,” Philip Lane, member of the ECB Executive Board, said in a press release.

The European Commission described the assessment as “a critical and historic step on Bulgaria’s journey towards euro adoption” in a statement.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated the country, saying the decision “will mean more investment and trade with euro area partners, and more stability and prosperity for the Bulgarian people.”

“Bulgaria will also take its rightful place in shaping euro area decisions,” she added in a social media post.

This marks a shift from last year’s reports, which concluded that Sofia did not meet the so-called convergence criteria to adopt the currency on the grounds that the country’s inflation rate was too high.

One of the obstacles to cross was inflation. Bulgaria’s harmonized consumer price index — which is comparable across European countries — came in at 2.8% in April according to statistics agency Eurostat.

Price stability is just one of the requirements a country needs to fulfil in order to join the euro zone, and thereby the European Central Bank. Others include limitations on the size of a nation’s government deficit and debt ratio, its average nominal long-term interest rate and its exchange rate stability.

There is also a legal requirement that covers central bank independence.

Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007 and committed at the time to also join the euro zone and relinquish the Bulgarian lev as its official currency. Around 341 million people use the euro across the current 20 euro zone countries, according to the European Union. The ECB says over 29 billion euro bank notes with a value of more than 1.5 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion) are in circulation.

One euro is equivalent to 1.96 lev, a rate set when Bulgaria became part of the board which anchors the currencies.

There are mixed attitudes about joining the euro within Bulgaria. A survey published last year by the EU suggested 49% of the public was in favor of the becoming part of the euro bloc. Political opinion is also split, with several nationalist parties and the country’s president advocating against it, while Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov is supportive.

The European Commission said that alongside its assessment, it had also adopted proposals for a council decision and council regulation on Bulgaria’s euro adoption at the start of next year. The council of the EU has the final say on countries joining the euro zone.

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