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Is Islamic State on the rise again?

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WHEN MAKING New Year’s resolutions few have violence on their minds. That was evidently not the case for Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old American citizen and military veteran from Texas. He rammed a rented Ford pickup truck into a crowd of revellers on Bourbon Street in New Orleans in the early hours of January 1st, killing 15 and injuring 35. After the crash police killed Mr Jabbar in a shoot-out. The FBI is investigating the attack as an act of terrorism; a black Islamic State (IS) flag flew from the bumper of the truck driven by Mr Jabbar and social media posts suggest he was a man of faith with intent to kill. The fact that he avoided detection suggests a fairly sophisticated conspiracy. “This is not a garden-variety attack,” says Colin Clarke of the Soufan Center, a global-security research group.

Economics

Trump reportedly considering important alteration to tariff plans

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump looks on during Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center on December 22, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. 

Rebecca Noble | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump is considering a plan that still would apply tariffs to all nations but narrow the focus to a select set of goods and services, according to a Washington Post report.

The new approach to tariffs likely wouldn’t be as powerful as Trump’s earlier ideas but still would cause major changes to global commerce, the paper said, citing people familiar with Trump’s thinking.

The report comes amid concerns that the incoming president’s insistence on imposing universal tariffs of 10% or 20% and specifically targeting China and Mexico would cause another spike in inflation.

During Trump’s first term, duties on a broad range of imports did little to raise prices broadly and in fact were kept in place when Joe Biden took over as president. However, economists worry that conditions are different now and aggressive tariffs would have a greater impact.

The Post report said it’s still not clear which sectors would be affected by the plans, though early discussions are looking at various industrial metals, medical supplies and energy.

The U.S. is running a $74 billion monthly trade deficit that exploded during the Covid pandemic.

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Economics

UK business confidence at lowest level since ‘mini-budget’: BCC

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We are in the midst of a hiring recession, especially in the UK: ManpowerGroup

UK firms are planning to raise prices to cover higher tax payouts as confidence among businesses tumbled to its lowest level since the market-rocking “mini-budget” crisis of fall 2022, according to a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce.

The trade group said sentiment had “declined significantly” in its largest poll since the Labour government’s debut budget last October, which included a hike in the amount many employers pay out in National Insurance (NI), a tax on earnings. 

The BCC said 63% of businesses cited tax as a worry in the survey, up from 48% in the third quarter. More than half (55%) said they expect prices to go up in the next three months, primarily due to higher labor costs.

The percentage of companies saying they expected turnover to increase in the next twelve months fell to 49%, from 56%. Concerns about inflation and interest rates remained roughly steady.

The BCC cited firms across hospitality, manufacturing, construction and healthcare expressing worries about how they would cover additional costs and saying they would likely scale back investment.

Budget has had a negative impact on business confidence in the UK: British Chambers of Commerce
UK firms less positive about the economy, but are in a good place to weather challenges: economist

“We recognize what [Reeves] said, that she’s got to increase taxes to fill her black hole, but what we need to see her do now is mitigate against that. What are we going to do to drive the economy?” Shevaun Haviland, head of the BCC, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.

“Businesses are going to have to shoulder this tax increase, but what we want to see her do is act, and they need to act quickly. It’s important that they’re putting strategies in place, industrial strategy, trade strategy, infrastructure plan, for later on this year, but we need to see action now.”

U.K. borrowing costs have climbed following the October 2024 budget, exceeding the levels they spiked to following the “mini-budget” of September 2022, which saw then-Prime Minister Liz Truss announce sweeping, uncosted tax cuts.

However, economists say the recent rise in bond yields is not equivalent to the surge seen in 2022 as the moves have been significantly less dramatic and the macro backdrop — including a cooling of inflation — has changed.

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Economics

The US Army needs inferior, cheaper drones to compete

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IN UKRAINE BOTH sides are deploying millions of low-cost drones, which play a role in combat as both scouts and as weapons. The US Army, long considered a leader in this field, has been following events in Ukraine closely. But the Pentagon is only acquiring small numbers of drones at high cost. Why are American drones so expensive, and can prices be brought down?

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