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Surging long-term rates stoke GOP tensions on tax cuts

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Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.

“The bond vigilantes are coming,” Representative Andy Barr of Kentucky warned a group of House Republicans behind closed doors on Wednesday, resurrecting a catchphrase of the 1980s and 1990s, when concern over high interest rates set by the bond market drove Washington to take painful steps to bring down budget deficits.

Barr, a senior member of the Financial Services Committee, pointed to a jump in long-term rates since September. “This is a tipping point,” said Barr, a firm tax-cut supporter, urging his colleagues to come up with credible spending cuts to assure bond investors the federal deficit won’t balloon.

The mood in markets and the nation’s financial situation are starkly different from 2017, when Trump and congressional Republicans passed a deficit-expanding tax cut. Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes touched 4.8% this week, double what investors demanded just before Trump started his first term. Total US government debt held by the public reached almost 100% of the economy’s size last year, up from 76% in 2017.

Fresh deficit projections due Friday from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are expected to show a worsening fiscal outlook as higher rates add to the cost of the government’s debt-servicing payments.

Cost-of-living concerns loom large after an election in which public discontent with the surge in prices in recent years was pivotal. Americans’ long-term inflation expectations jumped this month to the highest since 2008, according to the latest consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan. And Trump’s plans for broad new tariffs threaten to stoke more price increases.

The bond market’s travails have pushed mortgage rates back up above 7%, putting homes out of reach for more Americans. Higher yields also threaten to undermine the bull market in stocks.

None of this has cooled congressional Republicans’ enthusiasm for large-scale tax cuts. But it has intensified fiscal conservatives’ calls to offset revenue losses with substantial spending cuts, stoking further conflict within the party’s fractious and slender majority.

In the House, the defection of just a few Republicans can defeat any party-line legislation. GOP leaders already face internal struggles over causes such as California and New York lawmakers’ demands to lift a ceiling that the 2017 tax law imposed on deductions for state and local taxes.

Meanwhile, Republicans’ dominant establishment wing has long favored spending more on defense, agriculture and other projects important to their individual districts. Trump himself is among those calling for a military build-up and wants more resources for border security. The sweeping spending cuts the party’s fiscal conservatives demand also risk backlash from key political constituencies that could endanger lawmakers representing competitive districts.

But hardline conservative Chip Roy of Texas laid down a marker on the House floor Wednesday, saying spending cuts should be at least big enough to pay for the tax cuts so that the deficit will shrink rather than expand.

“As we speak, interest rates are going up, our debt is getting refinanced at higher interest rates, and we have more debt,” Roy told the House. “The American people didn’t send us here to keep racking up debt.”

Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, expressed concern Thursday at his Senate confirmation hearing that maintaining current budget deficits would threaten the government’s capacity to respond to a future crisis. But he blamed spending levels, not tax cuts.

Until recently, interest rates had largely remained subdued, going back to the 2008 financial crisis — reducing the burden of borrowing costs for the U.S. government as well as consumers and businesses. 

Not anymore. The COVID shutdowns and subsequent massive government stimulus reset things not just for the U.S., but the global economy. Inflation has since been persistently higher.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have climbed roughly a percentage point since mid-September, even after the Federal Reserve embarked on a course of cuts to its short-term benchmark rate — a jarring disconnect that has few precedents in recent history. The jump in longer-term yields is partly due to the economy being stronger than expected, but Trump’s agenda of tax cuts and tariff increases also has provoked anxiety.

“The bond market has begun to express their discomfort, and inflation being sticky is also a warning for Trump 2.0,” said Stephen Jen, chief executive of Eurizon SLJ Capital.

It’s likely that the dollar’s dominant role in global finance will continue to shield the U.S. from the kind of fiscal scare that has shaken other governments, such as the U.K. and Italy, as investors demanded a higher premium to hold their debt, Jen said.

“The U.S. will probably enjoy a higher ‘boiling point’ than Italy did,” said Jen. Even so, investor worries are sufficient “to start to price in this risk through a higher term premium,” he said — referring to the extra yield demanded for longer-term securities instead of just rolling over holdings of short-term ones.

Republican Rand Paul of Kentucky, who has tried for years to slash the budget, said rising long-term rates have “unmasked the problem” of the national debt and prompted behind-the-scenes debates among Republicans over how much new debt is acceptable. But he said the members of his party who don’t want big spending cuts remain dominant.

“Everybody professes to care,” he said. “There is a very small number that would actually cut serious spending.”

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Accounting firms seeing increased profits

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Accounting firms are reporting bigger profits and more clients, according to a new report.

The report, released Monday by Xero, found that nearly three-quarters (73%) of firms reported increased profits over the past year and 56% added new clients thanks to operational efficiency and expanded service offerings.

Some 85% of firms now offer client advisory services, a big spike from 41% in 2023, indicating a strategic shift toward delivering forward-looking financial guidance that clients increasingly expect.

AI adoption is also reshaping the profession, with 80% of firms confident it will positively affect their practice. Currently, the most common use cases for AI include: delivering faster and more responsive client services (33%), enhancing accuracy by reducing bookkeeping and accounting errors (33%), and streamlining workflows through the automation of routine tasks (32%).

“The widespread adoption of AI has been a turning point for the accounting profession, giving accountants an opportunity to scale their impact and take on a more strategic advisory role,” said Ben Richmond, managing director, North America, at Xero, in a statement. “The real value lies not just in working more efficiently, but working smarter, freeing up time to elevate the human element of the profession and in turn, strengthen client relationships.”

Some of the main challenges faced by firms include economic uncertainty (38%), mastering AI (36%) and rising client expectations for strategic advice (35%). 

While 85% of firms have embraced cloud platforms, a sizable number still lag behind, missing out on benefits such as easier data access from anywhere (40%) and enhanced security (36%).

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Private equity is investing in accounting: What does that mean for the future of the business?

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Private equity firms have bought five of the top 26 accounting firms in the past three years as they mount a concerted strategy to reshape the industry. 

The trend should not come as a surprise. It’s one we’ve seen play out in several industries from health care to insurance, where a combination of low-risk, recurring revenue, scalability and an aging population of owners create a target-rich environment. For small to midsized accounting firms, the trend is exacerbated by a technological revolution that’s truly transforming the way accounting work is done, and a growing talent crisis that is threatening tried-and-true business models.

How will this type of consolidation affect the accounting business, and what do firms and their clients need to be on the lookout for as the marketplace evolves?

Assessing the opportunity… and the risk

First and foremost, accounting firm owners need to be aware of just how desirable they are right now. While there has been some buzz in the industry about the growing presence of private equity firms, most of the activity to date has focused on larger, privately held firms. In fact, when we recently asked tax professionals about their exposure to private equity funding in our 2025 State of Tax Professionals Report, we found that just 5% of firms have actually inked a deal and only 11% said they are planning to look, or are currently looking, for a deal with a private equity firm. Another 8% said they are open to discussion. On the one hand, that’s almost a quarter of firms feeling open to private equity investments in some way. But the lion’s share of respondents —  87% — said they were not interested.

Recent private equity deal volume suggests that the holdouts might change their minds when they have a real offer on the table. According to S&P Global, private equity and venture capital-backed deal value in the accounting, auditing and taxation services sector reached more than $6.3 billion in 2024, the highest level since 2015, and the trend shows no signs of slowing. Firm owners would be wise to start watching this trend to see how it might affect their businesses — whether they are interested in selling or not.

Focus on tech and efficiencies of scale

The reason this trend is so important to everyone in the industry right now is that the private equity firms entering this space are not trying to become accountants. They are looking for profitable exits. And they will do that by seizing on a critical inflection point in the industry that’s making it possible to scale accounting firms more rapidly than ever before by leveraging technology to deliver a much wider range of services at a much lower cost. So, whether your firm is interested in partnering with private equity or dead set on going it alone, the hyperscaling that’s happening throughout the industry will affect you one way or another.

Private equity thrives in fragmented businesses where the ability to roll up companies with complementary skill sets and specialized services creates an outsized growth opportunity. Andrew Dodson, managing partner at Parthenon Capital, recently commented after his firm took a stake in the tax and advisory firm Cherry Bekaert, “We think that for firms to thrive, they need to make investments in people and technology, and, obviously, regulatory adherence, to really differentiate themselves in the market. And that’s going to require scale and capital to do it. That’s what gets us excited.”

Over time, this could reshape the industry’s market dynamics by creating the accounting firm equivalent of the Traveling Wilburys — supergroups capable of delivering a wide range of specialized services that smaller, more narrowly focused firms could never previously deliver. It could also put downward pressure on pricing as these larger, platform-style firms start finding economies of scale to deliver services more cost-effectively.

The technology factor

The great equalizer in all of this is technology. Consistently, when I speak to tax professionals actively working in the market today, their top priorities are increased efficiency, growth and talent. Firms recognize they need to streamline workflows and processes through more effective use of technology, and they are investing heavily in AI, automation and data analytics capabilities to do that. Private equity firms, of course, are also investing in tech as they assemble their tax and accounting dream teams, in many cases raising the bar for the industry.

The question is: Can independent firms leverage technology fast enough to keep up with their deep-pocketed competition?

Many firms believe they can, with some even going so far as to publicly declare their independence.  Regardless of the path small to midsized firms take to get there, technology-enabled growth is going to play a key role in the future of the industry. Market dynamics that have been unfolding for the last decade have been accelerated with the introduction of serious investors, and everyone in the industry — large and small — is going to need to up their games to stay competitive.

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Trump tax bill would help the richest, hurt the poorest, CBO says

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The House-passed version of President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending bill would deliver a financial blow to the poorest Americans but be a boon for higher-income households, according to a new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office.

The bottom 10% of households would lose an average of about $1,600 in resources per year, amounting to a 3.9% cut in their income, according to the analysis released Thursday. Those decreases are largely attributable to cuts in the Medicaid health insurance program and food aid through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

Households in the highest 10% of incomes would see an average $12,000 boost in resources, amounting to a 2.3% increase in their incomes. Those increases are mainly attributable to reductions in taxes owed, according to the report from the nonpartisan CBO.

Households in the middle of the income distribution would see an increase in resources of $500 to $1,000, or between 0.5% and 0.8% of their income. 

The projections are based on the version of the tax legislation that House Republicans passed last month, which includes much of Trump’s economic agenda. The bill would extend tax cuts passed under Trump in 2017 otherwise due to expire at the end of the year and create several new tax breaks. It also imposes new changes to the Medicaid and SNAP programs in an effort to cut spending.

Overall, the legislation would add $2.4 trillion to US deficits over the next 10 years, not accounting for dynamic effects, the CBO previously forecast.

The Senate is considering changes to the legislation including efforts by some Republican senators to scale back cuts to Medicaid.

The projected loss of safety-net resources for low-income families come against the backdrop of higher tariffs, which economists have warned would also disproportionately impact lower-income families. While recent inflation data has shown limited impact from the import duties so far, low-income families tend to spend a larger portion of their income on necessities, such as food, so price increases hit them harder.

The House-passed bill requires that able-bodied individuals without dependents document at least 80 hours of “community engagement” a month, including working a job or participating in an educational program to qualify for Medicaid. It also includes increased costs for health care for enrollees, among other provisions.

More older adults also would have to prove they are working to continue to receive SNAP benefits, also known as food stamps. The legislation helps pay for tax cuts by raising the age for which able bodied adults must work to receive benefits to 64, up from 54. Under the current law, some parents with dependent children under age 18 are exempt from work requirements, but the bill lowers the age for the exemption for dependent children to 7 years old. 

The legislation also shifts a portion of the cost for federal food aid onto state governments.

CBO previously estimated that the expanded work requirements on SNAP would reduce participation in the program by roughly 3.2 million people, and more could lose or face a reduction in benefits due to other changes to the program. A separate analysis from the organization found that 7.8 million people would lose health insurance because of the changes to Medicaid.

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