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Surging long-term rates stoke GOP tensions on tax cuts

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Surging long-term interest rates and stubborn inflation are inflaming divisions among congressional Republicans over paying for the sweeping tax cuts Donald Trump promised, complicating the path to passage with the party’s already tenuous majority.

“The bond vigilantes are coming,” Representative Andy Barr of Kentucky warned a group of House Republicans behind closed doors on Wednesday, resurrecting a catchphrase of the 1980s and 1990s, when concern over high interest rates set by the bond market drove Washington to take painful steps to bring down budget deficits.

Barr, a senior member of the Financial Services Committee, pointed to a jump in long-term rates since September. “This is a tipping point,” said Barr, a firm tax-cut supporter, urging his colleagues to come up with credible spending cuts to assure bond investors the federal deficit won’t balloon.

The mood in markets and the nation’s financial situation are starkly different from 2017, when Trump and congressional Republicans passed a deficit-expanding tax cut. Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes touched 4.8% this week, double what investors demanded just before Trump started his first term. Total US government debt held by the public reached almost 100% of the economy’s size last year, up from 76% in 2017.

Fresh deficit projections due Friday from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office are expected to show a worsening fiscal outlook as higher rates add to the cost of the government’s debt-servicing payments.

Cost-of-living concerns loom large after an election in which public discontent with the surge in prices in recent years was pivotal. Americans’ long-term inflation expectations jumped this month to the highest since 2008, according to the latest consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan. And Trump’s plans for broad new tariffs threaten to stoke more price increases.

The bond market’s travails have pushed mortgage rates back up above 7%, putting homes out of reach for more Americans. Higher yields also threaten to undermine the bull market in stocks.

None of this has cooled congressional Republicans’ enthusiasm for large-scale tax cuts. But it has intensified fiscal conservatives’ calls to offset revenue losses with substantial spending cuts, stoking further conflict within the party’s fractious and slender majority.

In the House, the defection of just a few Republicans can defeat any party-line legislation. GOP leaders already face internal struggles over causes such as California and New York lawmakers’ demands to lift a ceiling that the 2017 tax law imposed on deductions for state and local taxes.

Meanwhile, Republicans’ dominant establishment wing has long favored spending more on defense, agriculture and other projects important to their individual districts. Trump himself is among those calling for a military build-up and wants more resources for border security. The sweeping spending cuts the party’s fiscal conservatives demand also risk backlash from key political constituencies that could endanger lawmakers representing competitive districts.

But hardline conservative Chip Roy of Texas laid down a marker on the House floor Wednesday, saying spending cuts should be at least big enough to pay for the tax cuts so that the deficit will shrink rather than expand.

“As we speak, interest rates are going up, our debt is getting refinanced at higher interest rates, and we have more debt,” Roy told the House. “The American people didn’t send us here to keep racking up debt.”

Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, expressed concern Thursday at his Senate confirmation hearing that maintaining current budget deficits would threaten the government’s capacity to respond to a future crisis. But he blamed spending levels, not tax cuts.

Until recently, interest rates had largely remained subdued, going back to the 2008 financial crisis — reducing the burden of borrowing costs for the U.S. government as well as consumers and businesses. 

Not anymore. The COVID shutdowns and subsequent massive government stimulus reset things not just for the U.S., but the global economy. Inflation has since been persistently higher.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have climbed roughly a percentage point since mid-September, even after the Federal Reserve embarked on a course of cuts to its short-term benchmark rate — a jarring disconnect that has few precedents in recent history. The jump in longer-term yields is partly due to the economy being stronger than expected, but Trump’s agenda of tax cuts and tariff increases also has provoked anxiety.

“The bond market has begun to express their discomfort, and inflation being sticky is also a warning for Trump 2.0,” said Stephen Jen, chief executive of Eurizon SLJ Capital.

It’s likely that the dollar’s dominant role in global finance will continue to shield the U.S. from the kind of fiscal scare that has shaken other governments, such as the U.K. and Italy, as investors demanded a higher premium to hold their debt, Jen said.

“The U.S. will probably enjoy a higher ‘boiling point’ than Italy did,” said Jen. Even so, investor worries are sufficient “to start to price in this risk through a higher term premium,” he said — referring to the extra yield demanded for longer-term securities instead of just rolling over holdings of short-term ones.

Republican Rand Paul of Kentucky, who has tried for years to slash the budget, said rising long-term rates have “unmasked the problem” of the national debt and prompted behind-the-scenes debates among Republicans over how much new debt is acceptable. But he said the members of his party who don’t want big spending cuts remain dominant.

“Everybody professes to care,” he said. “There is a very small number that would actually cut serious spending.”

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IRS revises guidance on residential clean energy credits

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The Internal Revenue Service has updated and added new guidance for taxpayers claiming the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit and the Residential Clean Energy Property Credit.

The updated Fact Sheet 2025-01 includes a set of frequently asked questions and answers, superseding the fact sheet from last April. The IRS noted that the updates include substantial changes.

New sections have been added on how long a taxpayer has to claim the tax credits, guidance for condominium and co-op owners, whether taxpayers who did not previously claim the credit can file an amended return to claim it, and a series of questions on qualified manufacturers and product identification numbers. Other material has been added on how to claim the credits, what kind of records a taxpayer has to keep for claiming the credit, and for how long, and whether taxpayers can include financing costs such as interest payments in determining the amount of the credit.

The IRS states that “financing costs such as interest, as well as other miscellaneous costs such as origination fees and the cost of an extended warranty, are not eligible expenditures for purposes of the credit.” 

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IESBA, IAASB to launch global sustainability assurance rules

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The International Ethics Sustainability Board for Accountants said Friday its Global Ethics Sustainability Standards have been certified by the Public Interest Oversight Board, which oversees IESBA, as well as the International Organization of Securities Commissions, ahead of the official launch later this month.

Both the PIOB and IOSCO issued a statement of support calling on their members to either apply or be informed by the new framework.

The official launch of the new standards will occur on Jan. 27, 2025, in conjunction with the International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board’s International Standard on Sustainability Assurance 5000 (ISSA 5000). The IESBA and IAASB coordinated on developing interoperable global standards for assurance, ethics and independence for sustainability assurance engagements. They are both affiliated with the International Federation of Accountants.

The Global Ethics Sustainability Standards include the International Ethics Standards for Sustainability Assurance (including International Independence Standards) and the revisions to the International Code of Ethics for Professional Accountants (including International Independence Standards) related to sustainability reporting and to the use of the work of an external expert.

The new standards offer an ethical framework for reporting and assuring sustainability-related information to provide more reliable information to investors, lenders, customers, suppliers, government, regulators and other stakeholders. The new standards and revisions to the code of ethics include guidance on use of the work of outside experts. They also address risks to the integrity, quality and effectiveness of sustainability reporting and assurance such as bias, conflicts of interest, pressure to act unethically, fraud including greenwashing, noncompliance with laws and regulations, and threats to the independence of assurance practitioners.

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Gabriela Figueiredo Dias

Victor Machado/Bluepeach

“The certification of IESBA’s new ethics standards framework for sustainability and experts, along with IOSCO’s call for its members to adopt or be informed by the framework, marks a significant step to cement ethics as the foundation of trust and accountability in sustainability reporting and assurance,” said IESBA chair Gabriela Figueiredo Dias in a statement Friday. “The global sustainability standards infrastructure is now complete, with the ethics piece providing foundational instruments to underpin transparent, relevant and trustworthy sustainability information. Looking forward to the joint launch with IAASB of the new ethics and assurance standards, join us on January 27.”

The final standards can be found on IESBA’s website.

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Danny Werfel resigns as IRS commissioner

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IRS commissioner Danny Werfel said Friday he plans to resign next Monday, Jan. 20, coinciding with Inauguration Day.

President-elect Donald Trump announced plans last month to nominate former Rep. Billy Long, a Republican from Missouri, as the next IRS commissioner, even though Werfel’s term doesn’t end until November 2027. 

“While I had always intended to complete my full term as Commissioner, the President-elect has announced his plan to nominate a new IRS Commissioner,” Werfel said in an email Friday to all IRS employees. “I have been touched by those who have reached out to me to share how they were hopeful that I could remain in seat and continue the important work underway. But as civil servants, we have a job to do, and that job is to now ensure a new Commissioner is set up for success.”

Werfel has been serving as IRS commissioner since March 2023 after previously serving as acting commissioner in 2013, bringing much needed stability to the agency after a scandal erupted over the delayed approval of political groups for tax-exempt status. During his most recent tenure, he oversaw tax seasons that ran relatively smoothly thanks to increased funding from the Inflation Reduction Act as well as the launch of the free Direct File program for electronic filing.

“After significant introspection and consultation with others, I’ve determined the best way to support a successful transition is to depart the IRS on January 20, 2025,” Werfel wrote. “While leaving a job you love is never easy, I take comfort in knowing that the civil servant leaders and employees at the IRS are the exact right team to effectively steward this organization forward until a new IRS Commissioner is confirmed. I know this because of what I have seen you achieve over the past two years — remarkable work that will serve as a strong foundation for the future.”

Werfel said he has been holding discussions with members of Congress and the presidential transition team to ensure a smooth transition at the IRS as the start of tax season approaches on Jan. 27.

“At the IRS, we can’t take any days off in protecting the non-partisan nature of our work,” he wrote. “And this of course includes during a presidential transition. In the past few weeks, I have had discussions with IRS employees, members of Congress, staff on the transition team and other stakeholders on how the IRS can best ensure a successful transition to a new administration. I start each of those conversations with the same key point: As a non-partisan entity, the IRS will work as tirelessly to support the incoming Treasury team’s agenda just as we have for the outgoing Treasury team.”

Werfel was asked during a press conference last week about how long he plans to remain at the IRS and insisted he has remained “laser focused” on his job and preparing for filing season.

“I spend every waking hour during the day and, quite frankly, at night, focused on one thing and one thing only, and that’s getting ready for this filing season,” said Werfel. “That has consumed all of my energy, and that is my sole focus.”

Long has not yet been officially nominated by Trump, and in the meantime, deputy commissioner Douglas O’Donnell will be in charge of the agency.

“Deputy Commissioner Douglas O’Donnell, with his extensive experience and proven leadership, will step in as Acting Commissioner, to ensure a smooth transition and continuity of the agency’s critical work until a new Commissioner is confirmed,” said Werfel on Friday. “Over the next few days, we will provide more specifics on leadership changes. I also want to thank the Treasury Secretary, the Deputy Secretary, and their entire leadership team who have been active champions for all the positive change underway.”

Werfel has been leveraging the funding from the Inflation Reduction Act to improve taxpayer service, technology and enforcement at the IRS, including new digital tools such as the Tax Professional Online Account

“We are making major progress toward the same modern experience that taxpayers get with their bank or financial institution,” he wrote. “We launched more digital tools in the last two years than the previous 20, making it easier for taxpayers to access services and manage their accounts. This includes more than two dozen new features and enhancements to Individual and Tax Professional Online Account and the launch of Business Tax Account.”

The IRS has also been ramping up enforcement, doing more audits of large partnerships and corporations and high-income taxpayers, as well as cracking down on abuse of the Employee Retention Credit, imposing a temporary moratorium on processing new ERC claims. The IRS has since lifted the moratorium, but a recent report from National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins has criticized the slow processing of the claims. while lauding other improvements in taxpayer service at the IRS. Long has been a booster for the ERC since leaving office and was recently questioned about it by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, in a letter last week.

Werfel highlighted some of his other accomplishments in his email to IRS employees. “We launched new initiatives to ensure tax enforcement is fair by strengthening complex and high-end enforcement,” he wrote. “In just one example, more than $1.4 billion has been recovered from a small number of high-income people who have not paid overdue tax debt or filed tax returns for many years. Lastly, we have made major progress updating foundational technology to process transactions more quickly, transparently and securely. We have turned a corner on modernizing our core processing system, the Individual Master File, and we are now running the new system in parallel with our legacy system, a longstanding goal of the agency. Brick by brick — and online tool by online tool — we are making improvements that will empower IRS to more quickly implement any tax code changes like those that may be enacted in 2025, while reducing the costs of maintaining IRS systems.”

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