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Dalio says cutting budget deficit is crucial to stabilize bond market

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Ray Dalio, Founder & CIO Mentor Bridgewater Associates, speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box at the WEF Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 16th, 2024.

Adam Galici | CNBC

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio thinks reducing the U.S. budget deficit could stabilize the bond market and lower interest rates.

The founder of Bridgewater, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, said the current projected deficit is 7.5% of U.S. gross domestic product. If that ratio goes down to 3%, the supply-demand imbalance in the bond market would be lessened significantly, Dalio said.

“It’s almost a black and white situation,” Dalio said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “All those bonds have to be sold … there’s a tremendous supply … It’s happened many times before, so we have to stabilize that, and we can do it.”

Rising financing costs along with continued spending growth and declining tax receipts have combined to send deficits spiraling and have pushed the national debt past the $36 trillion mark. In 2024, the government spent more on interest payments than any other outlay other than Social Security, defense and health care.

The widely-followed investor said reducing the deficit can be achieved through higher taxes, lower spending or a combination of the two, so long as politicians work together to solve the problem.

“That’s what I call the 3% solution,” Dalio said. “We have so much debt that the interest costs on the debt is more important than spending and taxes …. our problem isn’t the deficit. Our problem is the politics, the fragmented politics.”

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U.S.-China agree on framework to implement Geneva trade consensus

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks with the media as he departs to return to the U.S., while trade talks between the U.S. and China continue, in London, Britain, June 10, 2025.

Toby Melville | Reuters

The U.S. and China have reached consensus on trade, representatives from both sides said following a second day of high-level talks in London, according to an NBC transcript.

“We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.

That echoed comments from the Chinese side, shared via a translator.

Lutnick said he and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will head back to Washington, D.C., to “make sure President Trump approves” the framework. If Xi also approves it, then “we will implement the framework,” Lutnick said.

Earlier, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters he was headed back to the U.S. in order to testify before Congress on Wednesday.

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

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Gundlach says to buy international stocks on dollar’s ‘secular decline’

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Jeffrey Gundlach speaking at the 2019 Sohn Conference in New York on May 6, 2019.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday that international stocks will continue to outshine U.S. equities on the back of what he believes to be the dollar’s secular downtrend.

“I think the trade is to not own U.S. stocks, but to own stocks in the rest of the world. It’s certainly working,” Gundlach said in an investor webcast. “The dollar is now in what I think is the beginning of [a] secular decline.”

Gundlach, whose firm managed about $95 billion at the end of 2024, said dollar-based investors who buy foreign stocks could enjoy “a double barreled wind” if the greenback declines against foreign currencies and international equities outperform.

The dollar has weakened in 2025 as Trump’s aggressive trade policies dented sentiment toward U.S. assets and triggered a reevaluation of the greenback’s dominant role in global commerce. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index is down about 8% this year.

“I think it’s perfectly sensible to invest in a few emerging market countries, and I would still rather choose India as the long term hold there,” Gundlach said. “But there’s nothing wrong with certain Southeast Asian countries, or perhaps even Mexico and Latin America.”

The widely-followed investor noted that foreigners invested in the United States could also be holding back committing additional capital due to heightened geopolitical tensions, and that could create another tailwind for international markets.

“If that’s reversing, then there’s a lot of selling that can happen. And this is one of the reasons that I advocate ex U.S. stocks versus U.S. stocks,” he said.

The investor has been negative on the U.S. markets and economy for some time, saying a number of recession indicators are starting to “blink red.”

Gundlach predicted that the Federal Reserve will stay put on interest rates at its policy meeting next week even as current inflation is “quite low.”

He estimated that inflation is likely to end 2025 at roughly 3%, although he acknowledged the difficulty in predicting future price pressures due to the lack of clarity in President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

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BlackRock’s smallest deal of 2024 may end up being its most consequential

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