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Economics

Minimum payments on credit cards hit record level as delinquencies also rise

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In this photo illustration the Visa, Mastercard and American Express logo on various credit cards and debit cards are seen beside US one dollar bills on January 4, 2025 in Somerset, England. 

Anna Barclay | Getty Images

Consumer stress has intensified, with an escalating share of credit card holders making only minimum payments on their bills, according to a Philadelphia Federal Reserve report.

In fact, the share of active holders just making baseline payments on their cards jumped to a 12-year high, data thorough the third quarter of 2024 shows.

The level rose to 10.75% for the period, part of a continuing trend that began in 2021 and has accelerated as average interest rates have soared and delinquencies also have accelerated. The increase also marked a series high for a data set that began in 2012.

Along with the trend in minimum payments came a move higher in delinquency rates.

The share of card holders more than 30 days past due rose to 3.52%, an increase from 3.21%, for a gain of more than 10%. It also is more than double the delinquency level of the pandemic-era low of 1.57% hit in the second quarter of 2021.

The news counters a general narrative of a healthy consumer who has kept on spending despite inflation hitting a more than 40-year high in mid-2022 and holding above the Fed’s 2% target for nearly four years.

Signs of strength

To be sure, there remain plentiful positive signs. Even with the rising delinquency rate, the pace is still well below the 6.8% peak during the 2008-09 financial crisis and not yet indicative of serious strains.

“A lot remains unknown. We’ve seen in the past few days how quickly things might be changing,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at personal finance company NerdWallet. “The baseline expectation is consumers in aggregate economywide will remain strong.”

Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 2.9% on an annual basis in November, according to Goldman Sachs, which noted Tuesday that it sees consumers as “a source of strength” in the economy. The firm estimates that consumer spending will slow some in 2025, but still grow at a healthy 2.3% real rate in 2025, and Goldman sees delinquency rates showing signs of leveling.

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However, if the trend of solid consumer spending holds, it will come against some daunting headwinds.

Average credit card rates have climbed to 21.5%, or about 50% higher than three years ago, according to Fed data. Investopedia puts the average rate even higher, at 24.4%, noting that so-called low-cost cards that are given to borrowers with poor or no credit history have topped 30%. Consumers haven’t gotten any help from the Fed: Even as the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point last year, credit card costs remained elevated.

Those rates are hitting much higher balances, with money owed on revolving credit swelling to $645 billion, up 52.5% since hitting a decade low of $423 billion in the second quarter of 2021, according to the Philadelphia Fed.

Renter noted that an increasing number of respondents — now at 48% — to the firm’s own consumer survey reported using credit cards for essentials. Moreover, the NerdWallet survey also found an even higher level, more like 22%, saying they are only making minimum payments.

With average credit card balances at $10,563, it would take 22 years and cost $18,000 in interest when just paying the minimum, according to NerdWallet.

“With higher prices, people are going to turn to credit cards more to use for necessities. You tack on higher interest rates and then you have more difficulty getting by,” Renter said. “If they’re only making the minimum payment, you can go very quickly from getting by to drowning.”

The trend in that direction is not encouraging. A recently released New York Fed survey for December found that the average perceived probability for missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months stood at 14.2%, tied with September for the highest since April 2020.

Home loans slow

It’s also not just credit cards where households are feeling the pinch.

Mortgage originations hit a more than 12-year low in the third quarter as well, according to the Philadelphia Fed report. After peaking at $219 billion in third quarter of 2021, originations are just $63 billion three years later.

“With high mortgage rates, consumers who have locked in low fixed-rate mortgages have little motivation to refinance, reducing mortgage demand,” the central bank branch said in the report.

Moreover, debt-to-income ratios on home loans also are on the rise, hitting 26% most recently, or 4 percentage points higher over the past five years.

The typical 30-year mortgage rate recently has swelled above 7%, posing another obstacle for housing and homeownership.

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Economics

‘He should bring them down’

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U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Win McNamee | Annabelle Gordon | Reuters

President Donald Trump on Friday lobbed his latest criticism at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as the White House’s discontent for the economic policy leader hits a fever pitch.

During a Friday afternoon question-and-answer session with reporters, Trump pointed to examples of prices going down.

“If we had a Fed Chairman that understood what he was doing, interest rates would be coming down, too,” Trump said. “He should bring them down.”

Trump has long argued that the Fed, which sets monetary policy in the U.S., should cut down interest rates. His latest comments come as the White House has ratcheted up its attacks on Powell in recent days.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Friday that Trump and his team are assessing whether they can remove the Fed chair. Powell has said previously that he cannot be fired under law and intends to serve through the end of his term as chair in May 2026.

“The president and his team will continue to study that matter,” Hassett said at the White House after a reporter questioned if firing Powell “is an option in a way that it wasn’t before,” according to Reuters.

Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday that “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.” His post included the nickname of “Too Late” for Powell, a continuation of Trump’s habit of giving satirical titles to political rivals.

His use of the word “termination” raised questions around if Trump was referring to Powell’s potential removal from his post ahead of schedule. Hassett said on Friday the administration will look at if there’s “new legal analysis” that would allow for Powell’s firing.

Powell appeared to irk Trump after saying Wednesday that the president’s contentious tariff plan could drive up inflation in the near-term and create challenges for the central bank in managing goals of high employment rates and price stability. Powell said Trump’s levies — many of which are currently on pause — are “likely to move us further away from our goals.”

“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” Powell said in prepared remarks before the Economic Club of Chicago. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

Powell also said that the Fed was “well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

The Federal Open Market Committee has its borrowing rate currently targeted in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%, where it has sat since December. Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 90% likelihood that the central bank holds rates steady again at its policy meeting next month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

As Trump’s team has scaled up criticisms, some Democrats have gone on defense. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned on Thursday that a president firing the Fed chief would be dire for U.S. financial markets.

“Understand this: If Chairman Powell can be fired by the president of the United States, it will crash markets in the United States,” Warren said on CNBC.

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China targets U.S. services and other areas after decrying ‘meaningless’ tariff hikes on goods

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Dilara Irem Sancar | Anadolu | Getty Images

China last week announced it was done retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, saying any further increases by the U.S. would be a “joke,” and Beijing would “ignore” them.

Instead of continuing to focus on tariffing goods, however, China has chosen to resort to other measures, including steps targeting the American services sector.

Trump has jacked up U.S. levies on select goods from China by up to 245% after several rounds of tit-for-tat measures with Beijing in recent weeks. Before calling it a “meaningless numbers game,” China last week imposed additional duties on imports from the U.S. of up to 125%.

While the Trump administration has largely focused on pressing ahead on his tariff plans, Beijing has rolled out a series of non-tariff restrictive measures including widening export controls of rare-earth minerals and opening antitrust probes into American companies, such as pharmaceutical giant DuPont and IT major Google.

Before the latest escalation, in February Beijing had put dozens of U.S. businesses on a so-called “unreliable entity” list, which would restrict or ban firms from trading with or investing in China. American firms such as PVH, the parent company of Tommy Hilfiger, and Illumina, a gene-sequencing equipment provider, were among those added to the list.

Its tightening of exports of critical mineral elements will require Chinese companies to secure special licenses for exporting these resources, effectively restricting U.S. access to the key minerals needed for semiconductors, missile-defense systems and solar cells.

In its latest move on Tuesday, Beijing went after Boeing — America’s largest exporter — by ordering Chinese airlines not to take any further deliveries for its jets and requested carriers to halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from U.S. companies, according to Bloomberg.

Having deliveries to China cut off will add to the cash-strapped plane maker’s troubles, as it struggles with a lingering quality-control crisis.

In another sign of growing hostilities, Chinese police issued notices for apprehending three people they claimed to have engaged in cyberattacks against China on behalf of the U.S. National Security Agency.

Chinese state media, which published the notice, urged domestic users and companies to avoid using American technology and replace them with domestic alternatives.

“Beijing is clearly signaling to Washington that two can play in this retaliation game and that it has many levers to pull, all creating different levels of pain for U.S. companies,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president at Asia Society Policy Institute.

“With high tariffs and other restrictions in place, the decoupling of the two economies is at full steam,” Cutler said.

Targeting trade in services

China is seen by some as seeking to broaden the trade war to encompass services trade — which covers travel, legal, consulting and financial services — where the U.S. has been running a significant surplus with China for years.

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Earlier this month, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, suggested Beijing could impose curbs on U.S. legal consultancy firms and consider a probe into U.S. companies’ China operations for the huge “monopoly benefits” they have gained from intellectual-property rights.

China’s imports of U.S. services surged more than 10-fold to $55 billion in 2024 over the past two decades, according to Nomura estimates, driving U.S. services trade surplus with China to $32 billion last year.

Last week, China said it would reduce imports of U.S. films and warned its citizens against traveling or studying in the U.S., in a sign of Beijing’s intent to put pressure on the U.S. entertainment, tourism and education sectors.

“These measures target high-visibility sectors — aviation, media, and education — that resonate politically in the U.S.,” said Jing Qian, managing director at Center for China Analysis.

While they might be low on actual dollar impact given the smaller scale of these sectors, “reputational effects — such as fewer Chinese students or more cautious Chinese employees — could ripple through academia and the tech talent ecosystem,” he added.

Nomura estimates $24 billion could be at stake if Beijing significantly step up restrictions on travel to the U.S.

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Travel dominated U.S. services exports to China, reflecting expenditure by millions of Chinese tourists in the U.S., according to Nomura. Within travel, education-related spending leads at 71%, it estimates, mostly coming from tuition and living expenses for the more than 270,000 Chinese students studying in the U.S.

Entertainment exports, encompassing films, music and television programs, accounted for just 6% of U.S. exports within this sector, the investment firm said, noting that Beijing’s latest move on film imports “carries more symbolic heft than economic bite.”

“We could see deeper decoupling — not only in supply chains, but in people-to-people ties, knowledge exchange, and regulatory frameworks. This may signal a shift from transactional tension to systemic divergence,” said Qian.

Can Beijing get more aggressive?

Analysts largely expect Beijing to continue deploying its arsenal of non-tariff policy tools in an effort to raise its leverage ahead of any potential negotiation with the Trump administration.

“From the Chinese government’s perspective, the U.S. companies’ operations in China are the biggest remaining target for inflicting pain on the U.S .side,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at risk advisory firm Teneo.

Apple, Tesla, pharmaceutical and medical device companies are among the businesses that could be targeted as Beijing presses ahead with non-tariff measures, including sanction, regulatory harassment and export controls, Wildau added.

Shoppers and staff are seen inside the Apple Store, with its sleek modern interior design and prominent Apple logo, in Chongqing, China, on Sept. 10, 2024.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images

While a deal may allow both sides to unwind some of the retaliatory measures, hopes for near-term talks between the two leaders are fading fast.

Chinese officials have repeatedly condemned the “unilateral tariffs” imposed by Trump as “bullying” and vowed to “fight to the end.” Still, Beijing has left the door open for negotiations but they must be on “an equal footing.”

On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is open to making a deal with China but Beijing needs to make the first move.

“In the end, only when a country experiences sufficient self-inflicted harm might it consider softening its stance and truly returning to the negotiation table,” said Jianwei Xu, economist at Natixis.

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Economics

Donald Trump’s approval rating is dropping

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EVEN WHEN Donald Trump does something well, he exaggerates. He won the popular vote last November for the first time in three tries, by a 1.5 point margin. “The mandate was massive,” he told Time. In fact it was the slimmest margin since 2000, but it was an improvement on Mr Trump’s two previous popular-vote losses, by 2.1 points in 2016 and 4.5 points in 2020. (He was elected in 2016 through the vagaries of the Electoral College.)

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