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Minimum payments on credit cards hit record level as delinquencies also rise

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In this photo illustration the Visa, Mastercard and American Express logo on various credit cards and debit cards are seen beside US one dollar bills on January 4, 2025 in Somerset, England. 

Anna Barclay | Getty Images

Consumer stress has intensified, with an escalating share of credit card holders making only minimum payments on their bills, according to a Philadelphia Federal Reserve report.

In fact, the share of active holders just making baseline payments on their cards jumped to a 12-year high, data thorough the third quarter of 2024 shows.

The level rose to 10.75% for the period, part of a continuing trend that began in 2021 and has accelerated as average interest rates have soared and delinquencies also have accelerated. The increase also marked a series high for a data set that began in 2012.

Along with the trend in minimum payments came a move higher in delinquency rates.

The share of card holders more than 30 days past due rose to 3.52%, an increase from 3.21%, for a gain of more than 10%. It also is more than double the delinquency level of the pandemic-era low of 1.57% hit in the second quarter of 2021.

The news counters a general narrative of a healthy consumer who has kept on spending despite inflation hitting a more than 40-year high in mid-2022 and holding above the Fed’s 2% target for nearly four years.

Signs of strength

To be sure, there remain plentiful positive signs. Even with the rising delinquency rate, the pace is still well below the 6.8% peak during the 2008-09 financial crisis and not yet indicative of serious strains.

“A lot remains unknown. We’ve seen in the past few days how quickly things might be changing,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at personal finance company NerdWallet. “The baseline expectation is consumers in aggregate economywide will remain strong.”

Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 2.9% on an annual basis in November, according to Goldman Sachs, which noted Tuesday that it sees consumers as “a source of strength” in the economy. The firm estimates that consumer spending will slow some in 2025, but still grow at a healthy 2.3% real rate in 2025, and Goldman sees delinquency rates showing signs of leveling.

PepsiCo CEO: Trump administration will be pro-growth and help consumer confidence

However, if the trend of solid consumer spending holds, it will come against some daunting headwinds.

Average credit card rates have climbed to 21.5%, or about 50% higher than three years ago, according to Fed data. Investopedia puts the average rate even higher, at 24.4%, noting that so-called low-cost cards that are given to borrowers with poor or no credit history have topped 30%. Consumers haven’t gotten any help from the Fed: Even as the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point last year, credit card costs remained elevated.

Those rates are hitting much higher balances, with money owed on revolving credit swelling to $645 billion, up 52.5% since hitting a decade low of $423 billion in the second quarter of 2021, according to the Philadelphia Fed.

Renter noted that an increasing number of respondents — now at 48% — to the firm’s own consumer survey reported using credit cards for essentials. Moreover, the NerdWallet survey also found an even higher level, more like 22%, saying they are only making minimum payments.

With average credit card balances at $10,563, it would take 22 years and cost $18,000 in interest when just paying the minimum, according to NerdWallet.

“With higher prices, people are going to turn to credit cards more to use for necessities. You tack on higher interest rates and then you have more difficulty getting by,” Renter said. “If they’re only making the minimum payment, you can go very quickly from getting by to drowning.”

The trend in that direction is not encouraging. A recently released New York Fed survey for December found that the average perceived probability for missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months stood at 14.2%, tied with September for the highest since April 2020.

Home loans slow

It’s also not just credit cards where households are feeling the pinch.

Mortgage originations hit a more than 12-year low in the third quarter as well, according to the Philadelphia Fed report. After peaking at $219 billion in third quarter of 2021, originations are just $63 billion three years later.

“With high mortgage rates, consumers who have locked in low fixed-rate mortgages have little motivation to refinance, reducing mortgage demand,” the central bank branch said in the report.

Moreover, debt-to-income ratios on home loans also are on the rise, hitting 26% most recently, or 4 percentage points higher over the past five years.

The typical 30-year mortgage rate recently has swelled above 7%, posing another obstacle for housing and homeownership.

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Economics

Companies already raise prices or plan to, blaming tariffs, data shows

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Johnson & Johnson manufacturing facility in Wilson, North Carolina.

Courtesy: Johnson & Johnson

Data from the New York Federal Reserve shows a majority of companies have passed along at least some of President Donald Trump’s tariffs onto customers, the latest in a growing body of evidence indicating the policy change is likely to stretch consumers’ wallets.

In May, about 77% of service firms that saw increased costs due to higher U.S. tariffs tariffs passed through at least at least some of the rise to clients, according to a survey conducted by the New York Fed that was released Wednesday. Around 75% of manufacturers surveyed said the same.

In fact, more than 30% of manufacturers and roughly 45% of service firms passed through all of the higher cost to their customers, according to the New York Fed’s statics.

Price hikes happened quickly after Trump slapped steep levies on trading partners, whether large or small. More than 35% of manufacturers and nearly 40% of service firms raised prices within a week of seeing tariff-related cost increases, according to the survey.

Trump announced in early April that he would impose “reciprocal” tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories, sending the stock market into a tailspin. But Trump soon rolled back or paused those levies for three months, unleashing the equity market to claw back most of its initial losses.

July deadline

Companies and investors alike are now looking to a July 9 deadline for the return of those suspended tariffs, coping in the meantime with continued confusion regarding to trade policy. The U.S. has already announced one trade deal with the United Kingdom, and Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said this week that the Trump administration is “close to the finish line” on some other agreements.

The New York Fed’s survey is the latest in a salvo of data releases and anecdotal reports that have shown companies’ willingness to pass down cost increases despite pressure from Trump not to do so.

Nearly nine out of 10 of the 300 CEOs surveyed in May said they have raised prices or planned to soon, according to data released last week by Chief Executive Group and AlixPartners. About seven out of 10 chief executives surveyed in May said they plan to hike prices by at least 2.5%.

Corporate executives have been careful in how they speak about the impact of Trump’s policies on their business, especially when it comes to trade, to avoid getting caught in the president’s crosshairs. Last month, for example, Trump warned Walmart in a social media post that the retailer should “eat the tariffs” and that he would “be watching.”

Consequently, survey data and anonymous commentary offer insights into how American business leaders are discussing the tariffs behind closed doors.

“The administration’s tariffs alone have created supply chain disruptions rivaling that of Covid-19,” one respondent said in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey published Monday.

Another respondent said “chaos does not bode well for anyone, especially when it impacts pricing.” While another pointed to the agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily slash tariffs, they said the central question is what the landscape will look like in a few months.

‘Hugely distracting’

“We are doing extensive work to make contingency plans, which is hugely distracting from strategic work,” this respondent said. “It is also very hard to know what plans we should actually implement.”

Responses to the ISM service sector survey released Wednesday revealed a similar focus on the uncertainty stemming from controversial tariffs.

“Tariffs remain a challenge, as it is not clear what duties apply,” one respondent wrote. “The best plan is still to delay decisions to purchase where possible.”

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Fed ‘Beige Book’ economic report cites declining growth, rising prices and slow hiring

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A store closing sign is displayed as customers shop during the last day of a store closing sale at a JOANN Fabric and Crafts location in a shopping mall following the company’s bankruptcy in Torrance, California on May 27, 2025.

Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

The U.S. economy contracted over the past six weeks as hiring slowed and consumers and businesses worried about tariff-related price increases, according to a Federal Reserve report Wednesday.

In its periodic “Beige Book” summary of conditions, the central bank noted that “economic activity has declined slightly since the previous report” released April 23.

“All Districts reported elevated levels of economic and policy uncertainty, which have led to hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions,” the report added.

Hiring was “little changed” across most of the Fed’s 12 districts, with seven describing employment as “flat” amid widespread growth in applicants and lower turnover rates.

“All Districts described lower labor demand, citing declining hours worked and overtime, hiring pauses, and staff reduction plans. Some Districts reported layoffs in certain sectors, but these layoffs were not pervasive,” the report said.

On inflation, the report described prices as rising “at a moderate pace.”

“There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward. A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial,” it said. “All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices.”

There were disparities, though, over expectations for how much prices would rise, with some businesses saying they might reduce profit margins or add “temporary fees or surcharges.”

“Contacts that plan to pass along tariff-related costs expect to do so within three months,” the report said.

The report covers a period of a shifting landscape for President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

In early May, Trump said he would relax so-called reciprocal tariffs against China, which responded in kind, helping to set off a rally on Wall Street amid hopes that the duties would not be as draconian as initially feared.

However, fears linger over the inflationary impact as well as whether hiring and the broader economy would slow because of slowdowns associated with the tariffs.

Tariffs were mentioned 122 times in Thursday’s report, compared to 107 times in April.

Regionally, Boston, New York and Philadelphia all reported declining economic activity. Richmond, Atlanta and Chicago were among the districts reporting better growth.

In New York specifically, the Fed found “heightened uncertainty” and input prices that “grew strongly with tariff-inducted cost increases. Richmond reported a slight increase in hiring despite Trump’s efforts to trim the federal government payroll.

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Economics

Meet SCOTUSbot, our AI tool to predict Supreme Court rulings

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This June may be the most harried for the Supreme Court’s justices in some time. On top of 30-odd rulings due by Independence Day, the court faces a steady stream of emergency pleas. Over 16 years, George W. Bush and Barack Obama filed a total of eight emergency applications in the Supreme Court (SCOTUS). In the past 20 weeks, as many of his executive orders have been blocked by lower courts, Donald Trump has filed 18.

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