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L.A. wildfire victims face financial anxiety amid recovery

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Homes burn above Pacific Coast Highway during the Palisades Fire on Jan. 8, 2025, in Pacific Palisades, Calif. 

Photo by Jeff Gritchen/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Alicia Kalvin awoke the morning of Jan. 7 to an urgent text from a friend: “There’s a fire on your street.” She hurried outside, alarmed to see red skies and low-flying planes dumping water.

“I have to get out of here,” thought Kalvin, 53, who lives in the Pacific Palisades of Los Angeles.

Back inside, she glanced out the bathroom window and saw a hellish scene unfolding. It was a neighbor’s house engulfed in flames, embers spewing into her own yard.

Kalvin frantically threw on clothing. She grabbed her purse, her dog, a can of dog food and her mother’s ashes before fleeing her childhood home. She didn’t get an evacuation warning.

Flames licked the hills of the Los Angeles enclave as Kalvin drove away. She says she’s had nightmares ever since.

Three days later, she returned to the area with a police escort.

“I promised myself I wouldn’t look, but of course I looked,” said Kalvin. “It looks like 10 nuclear bombs went off. The whole neighborhood was just leveled — markets, churches, schools. It looked like a war zone.”

A mobile home park is destroyed during the Palisades Fire on Jan. 8, 2025. 

Jeff Gritchen/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

In one sense, Kalvin is lucky because her home, somehow, is still standing.

But questions about her financial future abound — as they do for thousands of L.A. residents whose lives were upended by the recent wildfires.

There’s significant damage to Kalvin’s home. Some sections of the exterior, including the roof, are scorched; the landscaping and artificial lawn are destroyed; the interior smells of smoke; and ash, blown in through broken windows, blankets the hallways, Kalvin said.

She’s trying to untangle what her home insurance policy — the California FAIR plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, which steps in when residents can’t obtain coverage elsewhere — might cover.

“I’m very concerned at how much I’m going to have to spend if and when I fix up this house,” said Kalvin, who is single and doesn’t have kids. “Because insurance won’t cover everything.”

Even before the Palisades Fire, Kalvin faced financial challenges.

Work has dried up in Hollywood in recent years; Kalvin — an educator hired to teach child actors on television, movie and commercial sets — has had trouble finding gigs. She collects unemployment some weeks and funds income shortfalls with savings originally earmarked for retirement.

“My future is very up in the air,” she said. “And the uncertainty is very unsettling.”

‘There are no answers right now’

Patrick O’Neal sifts through the remains of his home after it was destroyed by the Palisades wildfire, in Malibu, California, Jan. 13, 2025.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

The recent wildfires that erupted in Greater Los Angeles — fueled by hurricane-force winds and exceptionally dry conditions, exacerbated by climate change — are estimated to be among the costliest in U.S. history. They’ve killed at least 29 people.

AccuWeather estimates the blazes caused more than $250 billion in total damage and economic loss.

S&P Global Ratings projects the L.A. fires will cause roughly $40 billion of insured losses. That sum would exceed the roughly $13 billion of the Camp Fire in Paradise, Calif., in 2018, which was the costliest blaze in U.S. history.

“There are all sorts of costs associated with a disaster,” said Andrew Rumbach, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute who studies household risk to natural hazards and climate change.

“They pile up, and many Americans don’t have a [financial] cushion to rely on,” Rumbach said. “Our main way of dealing with that as an economy is going into debt. That lingers for a long time.”

The state of the LA housing market following the wildfires

The fires, largely contained, were still burning as of Thursday.

The blazes — the largest being the Palisades and Eaton Fires — have scorched more than 50,000 acres, an area exceeding the size of San Francisco, and destroyed more than 16,000 structures.

Most of those structures have been residential houses, S&P Global Ratings analysts wrote in a recent note.

The disaster pushed thousands of L.A. residents into one of the nation’s most expensive housing markets overnight. They were left with countless financial questions, compounding deep emotional scars: Considerations like where to live, how to clean up, whether to rebuild — and how to afford it all.

“Individuals are dealing with insurance, mortgages, the replacement cost of belongings, temporary housing,” said Sam Bakhshandehpour, 49, who’s lived in the Pacific Palisades for 13 years. “There are lots of near- and long-term variables and frankly there are no answers right now.”

I’m very concerned at how much I’m going to have to spend if and when I fix up this house. Because insurance won’t cover everything.

Alicia Kalvin

Pacific Palisades resident

Bakhshandehpour, an investment banker turned restaurateur, said the extent of damage to his home is unclear.

He wants to continue living in the Palisades, which he calls an “oasis” in L.A. — but acknowledges cleanup of debris and toxic materials and repair to local infrastructure “could be years.”

Indeed, the recovery period for L.A. residents could be two to five years or longer, Rumbach estimates.

Some residents may never be able to move back.

“Even if there is a desire on the part of the homeowners [to rebuild], it is unclear as to whether the land will be re-zoned such that it can no longer be developed,” according to S&P Global Ratings.

A ‘massive’ financial drain

Why the U.S. has a home insurance crisis

During a state of emergency, California law also requires home insurers to issue a cash advance worth at least 30% of a policyholder’s “dwelling” insurance limit, up to $250,000, without filing an itemized claim. They must also advance at least four months of coverage for living expenses.

“There is no comparison to the dollars you get from a home insurance policy,” said Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a nonprofit consumer advocacy group. “It has long been the most important source of funds to repair and rebuild, much more than any government program, for the vast majority of people.”

Some insurers are paying policyholders even more than the law demands, Ricardo Lara, the California insurance commissioner, said Jan. 23. However, others “are not adhering” to those consumer protections, Lara said.

Only a ‘ghost town hellscape’ remains

Melted lawn chairs are seen near the remains of a burnt home after the Palisades Fire. 

Agustin Paullier | Afp | Getty Images

The rules on advance insurance payments only apply for policyholders with a “total loss.”

But Julia Pollak’s home is considered a “partial” loss. Her insurer, State Farm, paid a $15,000 advance on the home’s contents and also authorized coverage for two months of living expenses. Both amounts are less than guarantees for those with a total loss.

Her house, in the Marquez Knolls part of the Pacific Palisades, is damaged but still standing — a white home now surrounded by “wasteland,” she said.

“There’s a row of seven houses standing. All the rest are gone,” said Pollak, a labor economist. “My house now looks out on a ghost town hellscape.”

She and her family — a husband and four kids, including a newborn — are in limbo in many respects.

Fast Forward: Hollywood after the LA wildfires

For one, the insurance proceeds they’ve received so far aren’t enough to commit to a long-term lease, Pollak said.

“I looked into liquidating my 401(k) for emergency purposes, but the tax consequences are not very nice,” Pollak said. “So, I’m going to try not to do it.”

Thus far, the family has hopped from AirBnb to AirBnb. They don’t know where they’ll live after Feb. 5, when their current rental expires on a two-bedroom in Santa Monica.

More from Personal Finance:
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State Farm urged Pollak to use its third-party vendor to find future temporary housing — a cost the insurer would pay for directly, rather than via reimbursement. As of Thursday, Pollak was awaiting approval for certain properties she’d identified. She worries they’ll be snapped up in the interim.

“As Feb. 5 approaches, I am getting pretty nervous,” she said.

Then, there are longer-term questions.

The back side of their home is scorched. Everything inside reeks of smoke; various consultants have warned the smell won’t disappear unless insulation and ducting is replaced. Contractors have recommended a “full gut” and a replacement of all porous, hard-to-clean items like carpets, couches and upholstered beds, Pollak said. They must wait for the insurer’s determination.

To stay or to go?

There’s an additional tension here: It may be difficult to stay in the Palisades, but it’s also financially difficult to leave.

Pollak and others she knows whose homes are still standing worry insurers will deem their homes livable in a few months. She wonders, would they be residing in a construction zone for five years with no neighbors, businesses or schools nearby?

Emergency vehicles are on the side of the road as flames from the Hughes Fire race up the hill in Castaic, a northwestern neighborhood of Los Angeles, California, on January 22, 2025.

Frederic J. Brown | Afp | Getty Images

Pollak and her husband bought their home in 2019 for about $2.75 million. Its value had grown to about $3.8 million before the wildfires, according to a Redfin estimate — the family’s biggest financial asset.

Now, they likely can’t sell or rent it for anything close to pre-fire value, Pollak said.

“Ideally, we’d keep it and enjoy it in five to 10 years when it blossoms again,” Pollak said. “But the carrying costs are so high that we can’t pay the mortgage without living there and also pay for comparable accommodation elsewhere.” 

An uncertain future

Search and rescue members work with firefighters through residential damage from the Eaton Fire as wildfires cause damage and loss through LA region on Jan. 14, 2025 in Altadena, California.

Benjamin Fanjoy | Getty Images

For all she and her family have endured, Pollak considers herself lucky: At least they have insurance.

Many insurers have stopped writing policies in California or limited their exposure due to wildfire risk. Homeowners who lost coverage may not have renewed it, while others may have foregone insurance altogether in the face of higher premiums — and those rates will likely increase in the future after the L.A. fires, said S&P Global.

Two-thirds or more of L.A. fire victims will find they were underinsured, said Bach of United Policyholders. That means their insurance policy won’t cover the full cost of rebuilding or repairing property.

For example, 36% of victims who filed insurance claims after the 2021 Marshall Fire in Boulder County, Colorado, were “severely” underinsured, according to a recent study by researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder and University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Their coverage was less than 75% of the actual cost to fix their home, the study found. That means policyholders rebuilding a $1 million home would need an extra $250,000 or more out of pocket, Tony Cookson, finance professor at the University of Colorado Boulder and a co-author of the study, said in a statement.

My house now looks out on a ghost town hellscape.

Julia Pollak

Pacific Palisades resident

State Farm, the state’s largest insurer, dropped Kalvin, the L.A. resident and teacher, in July 2024. She switched to the California FAIR Plan.

The policy has more meager coverage than her former policy, Kalvin said. She’s filed an insurance claim but hasn’t yet received any funds. As of Thursday, an insurance adjuster hadn’t yet been assigned to her case.

For now, her basic needs are being met. Kalvin is staying with a friend in Santa Monica and doesn’t have a mortgage on her Palisades home. While her bills are limited — largely for groceries, and health and auto insurance — she feels stretched given it’s been hard to get more than two days of work per week.

She doesn’t know what her future holds — and whether it will be in the Palisades.

“I probably would continue living there, because I have such love for the Palisades,” she said. “It’s home. But it’s so changed now. And I don’t know how I would feel.”

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Treasury Bond Volatility Forces Bessent to Double Debt Buyback Size as Yields Swing

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Bessent

A turbulent week in the U.S. Treasury market prompted the Treasury Department to sharply increase the size of its long-term debt buyback program, as bond prices fell even while equity markets pushed toward record highs. The divergence has drawn attention from fixed-income strategists who see it as a signal of underlying investor unease about federal borrowing levels.

What Happened This Week

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday, August 20, 2026, that the Treasury had doubled the size of its long-term debt buyback operations, moving from roughly $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bessent indicated the figure could climb further, saying “we’re going to increase the size of the buyback,” and noted the accelerated pace could exceed the announced $4 billion threshold per issue.

Buybacks allow the Treasury to repurchase outstanding government bonds directly from the market, which can help support prices and dampen yield volatility during periods of stress. The expanded program came as stocks staged a late-week recovery: the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advanced on Friday, August 21, even as Treasuries logged mild losses, according to Bloomberg market data.

Why Bond and Equity Markets Are Diverging

Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn described the week’s dynamic as markets “ending the week on a softer tone after the relative calm of early August was disrupted by renewed pressure in global bond markets, another rise in oil prices, and growing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.” She noted that higher long-term borrowing costs are increasingly challenging elevated equity valuations, even as U.S. equities pull back modestly from record highs.

This divergence — equities near record levels while bonds sell off  is unusual and reflects two different sets of investor concerns. Equity investors have remained focused on corporate earnings strength, particularly from large technology companies ahead of Nvidia’s closely watched August 26 earnings report. Bond investors, by contrast, are more directly exposed to concerns about the scale of federal borrowing, highlighted this week by the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold for the first time.

The Fed and Treasury “Working in Opposite Directions”

Wilmington Trust senior bond portfolio manager Wil Stith told Yahoo Finance that current conditions reflect “the Fed and the Treasury basically working in sort of opposite directions,” adding that the imbalance will likely require the Federal Reserve  which he described as having “the larger sandbox”  to adjust the federal funds rate rather than relying on Treasury market interventions alone to manage yields.

Notably, the bond market’s reaction to the Treasury’s buyback expansion was relatively muted; strategists described the move as being largely absorbed without a major rally, suggesting the underlying pressure on yields stems from factors, such as inflation persistence and debt sustainability concerns, that a buyback program alone cannot resolve.

What Comes Next

Markets are now looking to two major events in the days ahead: Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, August 26, and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, running August 27-29. This will be the first Jackson Hole gathering under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose public communication style and policy signals remain less established than his predecessors’, according to market commentary from Regards of Wall Street.

For investors, the key metrics to watch are the size and frequency of future Treasury buyback operations, movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, and any policy signals from Warsh’s keynote address. Continued yield volatility alongside record equity valuations would suggest the market imbalance identified this week has not yet been resolved.

 

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Cross-Border Settlement Innovation and Real-Time Payment Architecture

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The global banking system is undergoing a comprehensive modernization of cross-border payment infrastructure. Driven by real-time settlement networks, open banking APIs, and interoperable messaging standards, financial institutions and multinational corporations are eliminating multi-day delays and reducing transaction costs associated with legacy international wire transfers.

Transition to Real-Time Gross Settlement Networks
Historically, international business-to-business (B2B) payments relied on complex correspondent banking relationships involving intermediary fees and processing delays. In 2026, the widespread adoption of ISO 20022 messaging protocols alongside interconnected Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) systems allows direct, end-to-end processing of cross-border transfers.

Commercial banks are providing corporate clients with continuous, 24/7 payment clearing capabilities. Real-time transaction confirmation and automated FX rate locking allow international businesses to settle cross-border trade obligations within minutes, significantly reducing counterparty risk.

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Interoperability
Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) pilot initiatives are reaching operational maturity across several key financial centers. Collaborative multi-CBDC platforms enable participating central banks and commercial institutions to settle foreign exchange and international trade transactions directly on shared distributed ledgers.

These wholesale digital currency networks eliminate traditional clearinghouse delays and minimize foreign exchange slippage. Enterprise treasury departments benefit from enhanced liquidity management, as cross-border cash balances can be deployed and repatriated instantaneously.

Corporate Treasury Transformation
For enterprise treasurers, instant cross-border settlement transforms cash management strategies:
– Working Capital Optimization: Reduced transaction float allows companies to lower precautionary cash reserves and optimize short-term liquidity investments.
– Automated Reconciliation: Enriched data formats embedded in ISO 20022 payment messages streamline automated general ledger posting and invoice matching.
– Reduced Processing Overhead: Account-to-account (A2A) real-time clearing bypasses costly intermediary correspondent banking fees.

Strategic Financial Priorities
1. Upgrade Treasury Systems: Ensure internal core enterprise software supports real-time ISO 20022 payment messaging standards.
2. Leverage Instant Clearing Rails: Utilize direct payment networks to lower cross-border transaction fees and eliminate settlement delays.
3. Evaluate Multi-Currency Liquidity: Modernize liquidity management frameworks to capitalize on 24/7 real-time settlement capabilities.

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Private Credit Expansion and Regulatory Oversight in 2026 Capital Markets

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The global private credit market has solidified its role as a fundamental pillar of enterprise finance, expanding rapidly across middle-market lending, asset-backed finance, and infrastructure financing. As non-bank financial institutions capture a larger share of corporate debt origination, global regulatory bodies are increasing oversight to evaluate market transparency and systemic risk interconnections.

Growth Drivers in Direct Lending
Direct lending platforms have continued to attract substantial institutional allocations from pension funds, sovereign wealth entities, and insurance companies seeking attractive risk-adjusted yields. Private debt funds offer corporate borrowers customized financing structures, faster execution timelines, and confidentiality compared to syndicated loan markets.

In 2026, private credit managers are increasingly financing larger corporate transactions, providing multi-billion-dollar credit facilities for buyout deals and corporate restructurings. The flexibility of private debt contracts—featuring unitranche pricing and tailored covenant packages—has made direct lending the preferred capital source for middle-market enterprise sponsors.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Systemic Risk Assessment
The rapid growth of non-bank intermediation has drawn heightened scrutiny from financial regulators in North America and Europe. Because private debt agreements are negotiated privately without public exchange disclosures, central banks are evaluating potential vulnerabilities related to asset valuation consistency and fund liquidity profiles.

Regulatory agencies are introducing guidelines aimed at improving reporting standards for private investment vehicles managing institutional assets. Key focus areas include monitoring leverage ratios within private credit funds and evaluating indirect credit exposures between commercial banking institutions and private debt funds.

Navigating Elevated Refinancing Costs
With benchmark interest rates remaining elevated, private debt borrowers face higher debt service obligations on floating-rate credit facilities. Financial advisory firms report an increase in proactive liability management strategies, including payment-in-kind (PIK) interest options, equity infusions from sponsors, and covenant modifications.

Private credit managers with deep operational capabilities are actively working alongside portfolio companies to optimize working capital and maintain cash flow coverage ratios during periods of higher borrowing costs.

Key Financial Takeaways
1. Mainstream Asset Class: Private credit has expanded beyond niche alternative asset status into a core corporate finance solution.
2. Enhanced Transparency Standards: Regulatory frameworks are evolving toward greater disclosure requirements for private debt managers.
3. Proactive Risk Management: Lenders and sponsors must prioritize debt sustainability and active portfolio monitoring amid high benchmark rates.

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