US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a “Fed Listens” event in Washington, DC, on October 4, 2019.
Eric Baradat | AFP | Getty Images
A hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading rattled markets Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.
Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a gauge of underlying prices.
Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.
Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien & Associates, said if you take the readings of the last three months and annualize them, you’re looking at a supercore inflation rate of more than 8%, far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
“As we sit here today, I think they’re probably pulling their hair out,” Fitzpatrick said.
An ongoing problem
CPI increased 3.5% year over year last month, above the Dow Jones estimate that called for 3.4%. The data pressured equities and sent Treasury yields higher on Wednesday, and pushed futures market traders to extend out expectations for the central bank’s first rate cut to September from June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“At the end of the day, they don’t really care as long as they get to 2%, but the reality is you’re not going to get to a sustained 2% if you don’t get a key cooling in services prices, [and] at this point we’re not seeing it,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander U.S.
Wall Street has been keenly aware of the trend coming from supercore inflation from the beginning of the year. A move higher in the metric from January’s CPI print was enough to hinder the market’s “perception the Fed was winning the battle with inflation [and] this will remain an open question for months to come,” according to BMO Capital Markets head of U.S. rates strategy Ian Lyngen.
Another problem for the Fed, Fitzpatrick says, lies in the differing macroeconomic backdrop of demand-driven inflation and robust stimulus payments that equipped consumers to beef up discretionary spending in 2021 and 2022 while also stoking record inflation levels.
Today, he added, the picture is more complicated because some of the most stubborn components of services inflation are household necessities like car and housing insurance as well as property taxes.
“They are so scared by what happened in 2021 and 2022 that we’re not starting from the same point as we have on other occasions,” Fitzpatrick added. “The problem is, if you look at all of this [together] these are not discretionary spending items, [and] it puts them between a rock and a hard place.”
Sticky inflation problem
Further complicating the backdrop is a dwindling consumer savings rate and higher borrowing costs which make the central bank more likely to keep monetary policy restrictive “until something breaks,” Fitzpatrick said.
The Fed will have a hard time bringing down inflation with more rate hikes because the current drivers are stickier and not as sensitive to tighter monetary policy, he cautioned. Fitzpatrick said the recent upward moves in inflation are more closely analogous to tax increases.
While Stanley opines that the Fed is still far removed from hiking interest rates further, doing so will remain a possibility so long as inflation remains elevated above the 2% target.
“I think by and large inflation will come down and they’ll cut rates later than we thought,” Stanley said. “The question becomes are we looking at something that’s become entrenched here? At some point, I imagine the possibility of rate hikes comes back into focus.”
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell. Charter Communications — The cable stock rose 7% after Charter agreed to merge with rival Cox Communications . The combined company will change its name to Cox Communications within a year. Constellation Brands — Shares popped 3.4% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed doubled its stake in the beer importer. Warren Buffett’s position is now worth around $2.2 billion. Applied Materials — The semiconductor manufacturer shed 5% after reporting fiscal second-quarter revenue of $7.10 billion, which came below the $7.13 billion analysts polled by LSEG had expected. Semiconductor revenue of $5.26 billion also disappointed the $5.31 billion analysts were looking for. Take-Two Interactive Software — Shares fell 1.3% after the video game company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for full-year bookings. The company expects the figure to come between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, missing the $7.82 billion StreetAccount consensus. For the current quarter, Take-Two projected bookings of between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion, while analysts had penciled in $1.28 billion. Cava — The company said it expected same restaurant sales growth to moderate during the year. Cava reported 10.8% sales growth at comparable locations in the first quarter, but maintained a full-year projection of 6% to 8% improvement in that category. The decline came even though first-quarter earnings per share of 22 cents came in above analyst estimates of 14 cents, according to LSEG. Shares were little changed. Doximity — The stock tumbled 19% after the health-care platform issued disappointing guidance. Doximity anticipates first-quarter adjusted EBITDA to range between $71 million and $72 million, less than the $74 million consensus estimate, per StreetAccount. Revenue guidance for both the first quarter and full year also fell short of expectations. Vistra Corp – The independent power producer’s stock jumped more than 5% after it bought seven natural gas facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners for $1.9 billion. The gas plants are located in the PJM market, New England, New York and California. Novo Nordisk — The pharmaceutical stock slipped 5% after CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen announced he would step down from his position , citing recent market challenges. Jørgensen will remain in his position “for a period to support a smooth transition to new leadership” as Novo Nordisk searches for a replacement. — CNBC’s Michelle Fox, Spencer Kimball and Jesse Pound contributed reporting.
BEIJING — Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com reported earnings this week that not only reflected improving Chinese consumer spending, but also the growing benefits of artificial intelligence in advertising.
E-commerce giant Alibaba said late Thursday its Taobao and Tmall group sales rose by 9% year on year to 101.37 billion yuan ($13.97 billion) for the three months ended March 31. That’s above the 97.94 billion yuan predicted by a FactSet analyst poll, and the quarterly growth figure was well above the 3% segment increase for the 12-month period ending March 31.
“The e-commerce and ad revenues were positive surprises as there were expectations tariffs would affect consumer behavior,” Kai Wang, Asia equity market strategist at Morningstar, said in an email regarding the three companies’ earnings results.
It’s important to note the earnings releases cover only the period before U.S.-China tensions escalated in April with new tariffs of more than 100% on products from both countries — an effective trade embargo. The two countries issued a rare joint statement Monday announcing a 90-day reduction in most of the recently added tariffs.
The U.S.-China trade dispute since April has negatively affected consumption to some extent, given the increased uncertainty for small and medium-sized businesses, Charlie Chen, managing director and head of Asia research at China Renaissance Securities, said Friday. He expects that as trade tensions ease, consumption will rise.
But despite lackluster consumption overall, sales of certain electronics and home appliances have done well since last year thanks to China’s trade-in subsidies for supporting such consumer spending.
JD.com on Tuesday said its sales of for that category surged by 17% from a year ago. Overall, the e-commerce company reported a 16.3% increase in revenue from its retail business to 263.85 billion yuan in the three months ended March 31. That was better than the 226.84 billion yuan in retail segment sales predicted by a FactSet poll.
On Wednesday, Tencent said its “fintech and business services” segment, a proxy for consumer-related business transactions, reported a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to 54.9 billion yuan in the first quarter.
While Nomura analysts said that segment revenue growth was in line with estimates, they pointed out in a note that “Tencent ads was a big outperformer in the Chinese ads industry despite the challenging macro environment.”
Tencent’s marketing services revenue surged by 20% to 31.9 billion yuan, helped by “robust advertiser demand” for short videos and other content inside its WeChat social media app. Tencent noted “ongoing AI upgrades” to its advertising platform.
AI is boosting ads
AI is helping Tencent lift its click-through rates — a measure of success for online ads — to nearly 3%, company management said on an earnings call Wednesday, according to a FactSet transcript. That’s up sharply from a 0.1% click-through rate for banner ads historically, and around 1% for feed ads, the company said.
Combined monthly average users for WeChat, known as Weixin in China, topped 1.4 billion in the first quarter for the first time. The app offers one of two major mobile payment systems used in mainland China.
Many coffee shops and online retailers also use mini-apps in WeChat for customers to place orders. Tencent said Thursday that its e-commerce operations had grown so large it was now a new unit within WeChat.
“AI ads improve efficiency and algorithm, which should translate into better targeting towards consumers even if macro conditions are not optimal,” Morningstar’s Wang said. “It is still a bit early to quantify how much incremental benefit AI ads bring compared to non-AI ads, but we have seen some monetization from AI-driven ads.”
JD said its marketing revenues climbed by 15.7% to 22.32 billion yuan for the quarter, also partly attributing that rise to AI tools.
On an earnings call Tuesday, JD management said its advertising research and development team is using large language models to improve ad conversion rates and accelerate ad revenue growth. The company added it is implementing AI tools that enable merchants to “execute complex ad campaigns” with a simple command.
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Advertisers have long sought ways to target ads at the consumers most likely to make a purchase.
Alibaba noted that marketing revenue, which it calls “customer management,” grew 12% year on year to nearly $10 billion thanks in part to increased use of the company’s AI tool for boosting merchants’ marketing efficiency, Quanzhantui.
China is set to release retail sales data for April on Monday. Analysts polled by Reuters predict a 5.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales for April, down slightly from 5.9% growth in March.
A Morgan Stanley survey from April 8 to 11, conducted immediately after the escalation in U.S.-China tensions, found that consumer confidence fell to a 2.5-year low, and 44% of respondents were concerned about job losses — the highest since 2020 when the survey began. Only 23% of consumers expect to spend more in the next quarter, the survey found, an 8 percentage point drop from the prior quarter.
Lackluster domestic demand persisted in April, with a 0.1% year-on-year drop in the consumer price index for the month — the third-straight month of decline. However, when excluding food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI rose by 0.5%, the same pace as in March.
Since the real estate market has yet to recover, and exports are restricted by geopolitics, Chen expects Chinese policymakers to focus on boosting consumption in order to achieve the year’s growth target of around 5%.
He expects related stimulus policies to include boosting spending on food and beverage, caregiving, travel, sports, and durable goods not yet included in the trade-in subsidies program.
June 18 marks the next major promotional season for shopping in China.
“I think we’re going to get a pretty good 618. Now obviously, we’re not dealing with 30% year-on-year growth anymore like we were in the first 10 years” of the shopping festival, Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBCearlier this week. The company helps foreign brands — such as Vitamix and IS Clinical — sell online in China and other parts of Asia.
He predicts 618 sales growth will rise by “very low double-digits.”
Walmart‘s business is strong enough to withstand tariff headwinds without increasing its prices, according to the discount retailer’s former U.S. CEO.
Bill Simon, who ran Walmart U.S. from 2010 to 2014, suggests the company may be overstating challenges tied to tariffs.
“If you look down deep and dig into the details of their earnings release today, you know this quarter they grew their gross profit margin in the U.S. business 25 basis points. So, they’re expanding their margin. They also reported their general merchandise categories were flattish because they had mid-single digit price deflation,” he told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday, the day Walmart reported fiscal first-quarter results. “That sort of gives them room in my view to manage any tariff impact that they would have.”
Simon is optimistic consumers can largely handle price increases — citing a steady jobs market and cheaper fuel prices this year. But he notes worrisome commentary from corporate executives could be chipping away at consumer confidence.
“All the doom and gloom we hear about price increases and tariffs like we heard from my friends at Walmart today, I think it scares them some,” said Simon, who’s now on the Darden Restaurants board and is the chairman at Hanesbrands.
Walmart shares fell 0.5% on Thursday, but the stock closed above session lows. Shares are off almost 9% from the all-time high of $105.30 hit on Feb. 14.
On Feb. 20, Simon joined “Fast Money” as Walmart shares were wrapping up their worst week since May 2022 on tariff jitters. He suggested the stock was a steal for investors even though Walmart warned profits were slowing.
As of Thursday’s close, Walmart shares are positive for the year, up more than 6% in 2025. The stock has climbed more than 7% since President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.