Personal Finance
How to know if you’re withholding enough taxes from your paycheck
Prapass Pulsub | Moment | Getty Images
If you have a tax bill or bigger than expected refund this season, it may be time to update your paycheck withholding, which can be tricky, experts say.
Typically, there’s a refund when you overpay taxes throughout the year, and a tax bill when you don’t pay enough. It’s up to the employee to tell employers how much federal tax to withhold from each paycheck via Form W-4.
The form “seems like a calculus problem,” said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida. But there’s a “quick and dirty” way to figure it out, he said.
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‘Back-of-the-napkin’ math for your withholding
After filing your 2024 return, you can see your “total tax” on line 24 on the second page of your filing, Form 1040, Lucas said. If your earnings and tax situation are the same for 2025, your tax liability should be similar.
Next, you’ll need to know how much you’re withholding from each paycheck and how many pay periods remain for 2025 to see if you’re on track, he explained.
For example, let’s say your “total tax” was $10,000 for 2024. If there are 23 pay periods left in 2025, you’ll need to withhold roughly $435 from each paycheck, Lucas said.
To withhold more, you can resubmit Form W-4 with an “extra withholding” added in the “other adjustments” section of step 4, he said.
“That’s the simple, back-of-the-napkin method,” Lucas said.
However, you’ll need to readjust your W-4 at the beginning of the next tax year. It should also be updated as your tax situation changes — like a bonus, second job, marriage, divorce, having a child and more.
Use the IRS ‘tax withholding estimator’
If your tax situation has changed or you want a more detailed update, you can use a free IRS tool known as the “tax withholding estimator,” Lucas said.
“It’s intuitive and it actually does a really good job,” he said.
You’ll also need pay stubs from all jobs (including your spouse) and most recent tax returns. But it won’t be a good fit “if your tax situation is complex,” according to the IRS.
With rapid changes in income, investment earnings or retirement plan distributions, you may need quarterly estimated tax payments to avoid IRS penalties, said Sheneya Wilson, a certified public accountant and founder of Fola Financial in New York.
Martin Barraud | Ojo Images | Getty Images
As U.S. home equity climbs, owners are more likely to face capital gains taxes from selling property. But a lesser-known tax strategy could help shrink your bill, experts say.
When selling your main home, there’s a special tax break that shields up to $250,000 of profits for single filers and $500,000 for married couples filing jointly. However, you need to meet certain rules.
An increasing number of home sellers are exceeding those thresholds, according to a 2024 report from real estate data firm CoreLogic. Nearly 8% of U.S. homes sold in 2023 exceeded the capital gains tax limit of $500,000 for married couples, up from about 3% in 2019, the report found.
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Those percentages were even higher in high-cost states like Colorado, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and and Washington, according to the CoreLogic report.
Exceeding the $250,000 and $500,000 exclusions is “becoming more common,” said Tommy Lucas, a certified financial planner and enrolled agent at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.
Home sale profits above the $250,000 or $500,000 thresholds are subject to capital gains taxes of 0%, 15% or 20%, depending on your taxable income.
Increase your ‘basis’ to reduce profits
Many home sellers don’t realize they can reduce capital gains by increasing their “basis,” or the home’s original purchase price, according to Mark Baran, managing director at financial services firm CBIZ’s national tax office.
You can increase your basis by adding “capital improvements,” such as renovations, adding a new roof, exterior upgrades or replaced systems.
Your “adjusted basis” is generally the cost of buying your home plus any capital improvements made while you own the property.
“That adds up over time and can bring them fully within the [$250,000 or $500,000 capital gains] exclusion,” Baran said.
However, you cannot add home repairs and maintenance, such as fixing leaks, holes, cracks or replacing broken hardware, according to the IRS.
You also can reduce your home sale profit by adding fees and closing costs from the purchase and sale of the home, according to Lucas.
The IRS says some of these expenses could include:
- Title fees
- Charges for utility installation
- Legal and recording fees
- Surveys
- Transfer taxes
- Title insurance
- Balances owed by the seller
“Maybe that gets you an extra few thousand” to reduce the profit, Lucas added.
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the opening bell in New York City on Feb. 12, 2025.
Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images
Stock market investors enjoyed lofty annual returns over the past two years. However, 2025 may not offer a “three-peat,” investment analysts say.
The S&P 500 stock market index yielded a 23% return for investors in 2024 and 24% in 2023. (Those returns were 25% and 26%, respectively, with dividends.)
Three consecutive years of total returns of more than 20% for U.S. stocks is a historical rarity. It has only happened once — in the late 1990s — dating back to 1928, according to Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“Do we expect an S&P 500 Index three-peat in 2025? In short, no,” Wren wrote in a market commentary Wednesday.
The U.S. stock market has delivered average annual returns of roughly 10% since 1926, according to Dimensional, an asset manager. After accounting for inflation, stocks have consistently returned an average 6.5% to 7% per year dating to about 1800, according to a McKinsey analysis.
“We have been spoiled as investors” the past two years, said Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Twenty-percent gains haven’t been the norm,” Cox said. “Twenty percent gains are the exception.”
What might ruin the party?
While history “isn’t gospel,” there are reasons to think the stock market may not perform as well in 2025, Cox said.
For one, there are many uncertainties that could negatively impact the stock market, including tariffs and a potential rebound in inflation, Wren said. A surge in bond yields might also pose a headwind, Wren wrote in a market commentary. (Higher yields could dampen demand for U.S. stocks.)
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Additionally, technology companies have been a major driver of S&P 500 returns in recent years but may not be poised for the same outperformance this year, Cox said.
Tech stocks suffered a rout in late January, for example, amid fears of a Chinese artificial intelligence startup called DeepSeek undercutting major U.S. players. Those stocks have largely recovered since then, however.
In all, a rosy backdrop of solid economic growth and consumer spending, coupled with relatively low unemployment, may push the S&P 500 up by about 12% in 2025, Wren wrote. That would be slightly better than the long-term historical average, he said.
“So do not be disappointed,” Wren wrote. “We think investors should be optimistic.”
However, investors shouldn’t let high expectations cloud judgment about market risks, Cox said.
The current environment is one in which investors should “prioritize portfolio balance” and long-term investors should ensure their portfolio is in line with their targets, she said.
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