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TIPS can provide an investor protection against inflation

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The Fed is 'very comfortable' staying on hold for an extended period: JPMorgan's Kelsey Berro

Although inflation has eased considerably, in many ways, it is still alive and well.

The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a wide-ranging basket of goods and services, has fallen gradually from a 9.1% pandemic-era peak in June 2022 to 3% in January. But it is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

“The progress toward 2% inflation has stalled out, and the Fed knows it,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. Federal Reserve officials have also expressed concern about the impact tariffs may now have on inflation.

How TIPS work

TIPS are issued and backed by the U.S. government like typical Treasury bonds, however, these securities are meant to hedge against rising consumer prices.

To compare, regular Treasury bonds could lose value over time if the interest they earn is below the rate of inflation. Currently, the bellwether 10-year Treasury bond is yielding just below 4.5%. (The same goes for the low yields on certificates of deposits when it comes to protecting long-term buying power.)

Alternatively, the principal portion of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. In this case, as inflation rises, the value of the principal will rise as well to maintain its value.

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For example, an investor buys $1,000 in TIPS at a fixed rate of 1%. If inflation rises by 2%, the principal will rise to $1,020. The rate will stay the same 1%, but future interest payments are multiplied by the new principal amount of $1,020, so payments are $10.20 for the year (or $5.10 every six months, since TIPS pay interest twice a year).

TIPS are issued in 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities and when a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater.

TIPS are a ‘valuable tool’

The threat of tariffs on imports is causing more investors to consider increasing their exposure to TIPS to mitigate inflation concerns, according to a recent report by Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

“TIPS continue to be a valuable tool for protecting purchasing power in an inflationary environment,” said certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth, president of Bone Fide Wealth in New York.

“With yields currently near decade highs, they’re certainly more attractive than in recent years,” said Boneparth, a member of the CNBC Financial Advisor Council.

US President Donald Trump speaks while signing an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House to impose 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminum, broadening his trade restrictions to some of the country’s top trading partners.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

However, TIPS aren’t immune from losses even in an inflationary environment, according to Colin Gerrety, a certified financial planner and client advisor at Glassman Wealth Services in Tysons Corner, Virginia.

“Just look at 2022 as an example,” he said.

“Let’s say inflation spikes and interest rates rise at the same time,” he said, as they did that year. “TIPS might actually lose money if the negative impact from the rise in rates exceeds the adjustment that occurs due to inflation.”

In 2022, rising interest rates hurt TIPS and other bonds; TIPS had a -11.85% return that year, although that was still better than U.S. Treasurys.

How to use TIPS as an investment option

Consider the potential impact of tariffs on inflation going forward, said Winnie Sun, co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth Partners, based in Irvine, California.

She recommends a strategy that combines fixed-income TIPS with dividend-paying stocks and laddered CDs for short-term cash flow needs. Sun is also a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council

“I usually advise clients to view TIPS as one part of a diversified portfolio rather than a standalone solution,” Boneparth also said.

“While they offer the benefit of inflation-adjusted returns, it’s important to consider factors like tax treatment and the potential for lower returns if inflation moderates,” he added.

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What a Trump, Powell Fed showdown means for your money

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Trump on Fed Chair Powell: Why doesn't he lower rates

Ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, tensions are escalating between the White House and the central bank, with consumers seemingly caught in the crossfire.

On Thursday, President Donald Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “numbskull” for not lowering interest rates already.

Trump has previously said the central bank should cut interest rates by a full percentage point. “Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday.

Vice President JD Vance echoed the president’s message in a social media post Wednesday on X, after a key inflation reading came in slightly better than expected.

“The president has been saying this for a while, but it’s even more clear: the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice,” Vance wrote.

The president has argued that maintaining a fed funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow and puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage to countries with lower rates. The Fed’s benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on almost all of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day.

Still, so far, Trump’s comments have had no impact and experts say the Fed is likely to hold its benchmark steady again when it meets next week — even as the political pressure to slash rates ramps up significantly.

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Since December, the federal funds rate has been in a target range of between 4.25%-4.5% and futures market pricing is implying virtually no chance of an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

In prepared remarks last month, Powell said that the federal funds rate is likely to stay higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux. He has also said repeatedly that politics will not play a role in the Fed’s policy decisions.

But Trump, who nominated Powell to head of the nation’s central bank in 2018, has publicly berated the Fed’s decision-making

‘The idea of lower interest rates is often romanticized’

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Craig Hudson | Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

As it stands, market pricing indicates the Fed is unlikely to consider further interest rate cuts until at least September. Once the fed funds rate comes down, consumers could see their borrowing costs start to fall as well, which some may consider a welcome change.

“The idea of lower interest rates is often romanticized from the borrowers’ perspective,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.

“The reason for lower rates is what really matters,” McBride said. “We want the fed to be cutting rates because inflationary pressures are receding.”

For now, “inflation is still higher than desired,” he added.

The risk is that reducing rates too soon could halt or reverse progress on tamping down inflation, according to Mark Higgins, senior vice president at Index Fund Advisors and author of “Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future.”

“Now you have a situation where Trump is willing to pressure the Fed to lower rates while they have less flexibility to do that,” he said. “They have to keep rates higher for longer to extinguish inflation.”

Despite the softer-than-expected inflation data, central bank officials have said that they will wait until there’s more clarity about Trump’s tariff agenda before they consider lowering rates again.

The White House has said that tariffs will not cause runaway inflation, with the expectation that foreign producers would absorb much of the costs themselves. However, many economists believe that the full effect from tariffs could show up later in the summer as surplus inventories draw down.

For consumers waiting for borrowing costs to ease, they may be better off of the Fed sticks to its current monetary policy, according to Higgins.

“There’s this temptation to move fast and that is counterproductive,” Higgins said. “If the Fed prematurely lowers rates, it’s going to allow inflation to reignite and then they will have to raise rates again.”

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Billy Long confirmed as IRS Commissioner amid sweeping agency cuts

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Former Representative Billy Long, a Republican from Missouri, speaks during a campaign event for former US President Donald Trump at Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa, US, on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. 

Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Senate on Thursday confirmed Billy Long as the next IRS Commissioner, which could mark a shift for taxpayers amid sweeping agency cuts.

Picked by President Donald Trump, the former Missouri Congressman’s nomination received mixed support from Washington and the tax community. But Senate Republicans confirmed Long via a party-line vote.

During the confirmation process, Long faced Democratic scrutiny over Trump loyalties and ties to dubious tax credits, among other questions, which he addressed during a May Senate Finance Committee hearing and written testimony

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When asked about Trump’s power over the agency during the May Senate hearing, Long said: “The IRS will not, should not be politicized on my watch.”

In written testimony, Long said he would “follow the law” when asked for specifics about how he would respond to political favor requests from Trump.

“The confirmation process was pretty controversial,” said Carl Tobias, law professor at University of Richmond’s School of Law.

But it’s currently unclear what Long as IRS Commissioner will mean for taxpayers, he said.

IRS cuts will have ‘significant impacts’

Long’s confirmation comes amid widespread IRS cuts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

The hiring freeze, deferred resignation programs and reductions in force “will have significant impacts” on IRS operations, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, or TIGTA, said in a June 6 report.

A separate TIGTA report from May found the agency had lost nearly one-third of its so-called revenue agents, who conduct audits, as of March 2025.

Closing the ‘tax gap’

The “tax gap” — federal levies incurred but not paid voluntarily on time — was estimated at $696 billion for tax year 2022, according to the latest IRS data.

When asked about the tax gap, Long answered in written testimony: “My goal is to modernize and streamline the IRS, so we are collecting the maximum amount owed each year.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s fiscal 2026 budget request calls for a 37% reduction in IRS spending, including staffing and technology cuts. These reductions could impact revenue collections, according to a Budget Lab at Yale analysis.

In a May House Appropriations subcommittee hearing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “collections” were among his IRS priorities. He said “smarter IT” and the “AI boom” could help meet revenue goals.

Trump’s mega tax and spending bill faces pushback from fiscal hawks, Musk

In 2022, Congress approved nearly $80 billion in IRS funding, with more than half earmarked for enforcement of corporate and high-net-worth tax dodgers. That funding has since been targeted by Republicans.

As the agency faces cuts, it could also soon see more administrative work once Republicans enact sweeping tax changes via Trump’s big beautiful spending bill.

For example, one provision would require precertification of each qualifying child for filers claiming the earned income tax credit. This could be challenging amid staffing cuts, experts say.

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Tenants are flooding the suburbs where they can’t afford to buy

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Aerial view of tract housing neighborhood in Boise, Idaho, USA.

Simonkr | E+ | Getty Images

Renting is taking off in the suburbs as homeownership remains out of reach for many would-be buyers.

Between 2018 and 2023, rentership surged by at least 5 percentage points in 11 out of 20 suburbs surrounding the largest U.S. metro areas, according to a recent analysis by Point2Homes, a rental market research company.

During the same period, 15 suburbs went from being predominantly composed of homeowners to majority-renter communities. The trend spans fast-growing Sun Belt metros like Dallas, Houston and Miami as well as Northeastern cities like Boston and Philadelphia.

In five of those top 20 metro areas — Dallas, Minneapolis, Boston, Tampa and Baltimore — the suburbs are gaining renters faster than the urban centers they surround, Point2Homes found. The share of residents who rent surged in the Dallas suburbs by 17.6% from 2018 to 2023, while that rate rose just 7.9% in the city itself — with the nearby suburbs of Frisco, McKinney and Grand Prairie each gaining over 5,000 renter households apiece during that period.

Back in 2018, it was harder to buy a home in Dallas County, where most of the city sits, than it was in the metro area’s more suburban counties, like those including Frisco, McKinney and Grand Prairie — suburbs where the ranks of renters have swelled faster than virtually anywhere else, Point2Homes found. That’s no longer the case: Homebuying is now more difficult in the suburban counties surrounding Dallas than it is in Dallas County itself, the NBC News Home Buyer Index shows.

Housing affordability is a nationwide problem spanning cities and suburbs alike.

Mortgage costs have risen sharply since the pandemic, pricing out many prospective buyers in all sorts of in-demand areas. Average interest rates on the popular 30-year fixed home loan currently hover just under 7%, levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. In a market this tough, some housing experts say the proliferation of rental properties has helped keep suburban lifestyles accessible to people who otherwise couldn’t afford them.

A “For Rent” sign is placed in front of a home in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., June 8, 2021.

Will Dunham | Reuters

“You have your own land, you have kids or you have a dog, and you want that space,” said N. Edward Coulson, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, and the director of its Center for Real Estate. “They get all that amenity from having a single-family home.”

Mark, a suburbanite just outside Chicago who asked to be identified by his first name to avoid professional blowback for weighing in on hot-button housing issues, said the type of property he has rented for three years is out of budget for him to buy. He estimated many comparable properties in the area would cost 30% more in monthly housing payments than his current rent, and he’s considering leaving the area so he can purchase someplace else.

“If I want to stay here, it’s basically not tenable,” Mark said.

Andrew Decker, a renter in Lake Villa, Illinois, halfway between Chicago and Milwaukee, said he and his family would love to buy the property where they live now, which he said was offered to him for $340,000.

“We would like to make it our forever home if we could afford it, but it’s just so expensive,” Decker said. “If they were to come at me and tell me that, ‘Hey, you can buy this house for 200 grand today,’ I’d pull the trigger tomorrow. I wouldn’t even hesitate. But 340’s crazy.”

Tara Raghuveer, who runs the tenant advocacy group Tenant Union Federation, said affordability issues that have fueled the suburban rental boom threaten to push people farther from urban cores.

“As people are moved out of the city, they’re further from transportation, they might be further from employment, they might be living in homes that are not necessarily connected to other people like them, which impacts things like child care, Social Security,” Raghuveer said.

Landlords, however, tout the benefits that come from renting in the ‘burbs.

“The ability to have one payment that covers all your expenses generally — you don’t have to deal with the mortgage payment and the home insurance and maybe the HOA and then a lot of maintenance expense, so on — has been something that for a lot of people has been worth it,” said George Ratiu, vice president of research at the National Apartment Association trade group, which represents rental operators.

A construction worker helps builds a roof on a residential homes in Irvine, California, U.S., March 28, 2025. 

Mike Blake | Reuters

Developers have also been building different types of properties for suburban tenants, including multifamily complexes. Jay Parsons, a housing economist and host of “The Rent Roll” podcast, points to the rise of “suburban downtowns,” partly fueled by the pandemic-era shift to remote work. These mixed-use developments are typically aimed at offering younger families a balance between urban convenience and suburban amenities, he said.

“You can still be close to your job. You can be close to nice restaurants and shops but live in a suburban area where you’re still using a car, and you still have probably a rent that’s more affordable than living in most downtowns,” Parsons said.

Coulson doesn’t expect the appeal of the suburbs to fade anytime soon, which could prop up prices in many of them for buyers and renters alike.

“If you work downtown, it’s still an advantage to live downtown, but it’s not as great an advantage” as it used to be, he said, now that remote work remains commonplace — despite an ongoing drumbeat of return-to-office mandates. “What that does is also raise the cost of living in the suburbs, because now more people want to live in the suburbs.”

“That’s a dynamic that’s going to have to work itself out a little bit more before we know the final impact on suburban versus downtown pricing,” he said.

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