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Congress’ proposed Medicaid cuts may negatively impact economy: report

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A “Save Medicaid” sign is affixed to the podium for the House Democrats’ press event to oppose the Republicans’ budget on the House steps of the Capitol on Tuesday, February 25, 2024. 

Bill Clark | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

House Republicans have called for about $880 billion in spending cuts over the next decade that may target Medicaid, a program that provides health care and other services to millions of Americans.

The budget resolution adopted by the chamber on Feb. 25 is aimed at implementing the cuts to help pay for renewing tax cuts expiring the end of this year. The House Energy and Commerce Committee is charged with finding the savings, and Medicaid is under its jurisdiction. Of note, the resolution doesn’t specifically single out Medicaid.

“It is very hard to imagine coming up with enough savings from what’s in their jurisdiction without a hefty cut to Medicaid, just given its size,” said Josh Bivens, chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

Republicans including House Speaker Mike Johnson have said they do not plan to cut Medicaid, in keeping with President Donald Trump’s promise not to touch the program.

Neither the White House nor the Energy and Commerce Committee were immediately available for comment.

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Cuts to Medicaid would impact more than 80 million people who rely on the program for health insurance every month, including many individuals who are middle class, as well as older adults who use it for long-term care benefits, Bivens said.

Because the program is the largest federal program for alleviating poverty, cutbacks would increase hardships for already struggling families, according to new research from the Economic Policy Institute.

Moreover, Medicaid cuts of that size would also make the U.S. more vulnerable to a recession, according to the research.

Cuts may have ‘noticeable effects’ on spending

Implementing Medicaid spending cuts to extend tax breaks from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would have “noticeable effects” on economywide spending, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

Republicans and Democrats have opposing views on what the impact of extending those cuts may be. While Democrats say renewing the policy would benefit the wealthiest Americans, Republicans argue it could create a windfall for low- and middle-income Americans. Research from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and the Urban Institute has found high-income taxpayers would benefit most.

High-income households would likely save the additional money they see from any tax cuts, and therefore not result in meaningful spending, EPI predicts.

In contrast, individuals who are affected by the Medicaid cuts would reduce their medical spending, such as by skipping doctors’ visits, the EPI report found. For people with less generous Medicaid coverage, higher out-of-pocket costs would limit their ability to spend in other areas.

A dollar cut to Medicaid generally has a much bigger macro effect than a dollar cut to taxes for high-income people, Bivens said. Because Medicaid beneficiaries are so income constrained, every extra dollar of funding that goes to Medicaid frees up money they can spend elsewhere, he said. Medicaid cuts curb their ability to spend.

Miller: We are optimistic despite potential Medicaid cuts

An $880 billion cut to Medicaid would prompt a 0.5% drag on economic growth, according to the Economic Policy Institute. That could nudge the unemployment rate up by about 0.3 percentage points, and leave about 550,000 people involuntarily without jobs.

To counteract the slower economic growth, the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates from about 4.25% to around 2.5%, according to the Economic Policy Institute. But that would limit the central bank’s ability to react to any other recessionary shocks that could come up.

Research from the Commonwealth Fund has found when Medicaid is expanded, additional federal funding can help promote stronger state economies. For states that implement expansions, that may boost state output, state gross products and personal incomes in those states, which also benefits the country at large, according to the research.

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Personal Finance

Navigating Residential Real Estate and Mortgage Strategy

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The 2026 residential real estate market presents a nuanced landscape for homebuyers, current homeowners, and property investors. With benchmark mortgage rates adjusting alongside Treasury yield movements, real estate strategies require careful evaluation of borrowing costs, local market supply dynamics, and long-term home equity management.

Adapting Homebuying Strategies to Mortgage Dynamics
Prospective homebuyers are adapting to fixed 30-year mortgage rates hovering between 6.0% and 6.8%. While borrowing costs are elevated compared to historical lows seen in prior decades, moderating home price growth across several regional markets is creating selective opportunities for buyers with strong credit profiles.

Homebuyers are increasingly utilizing strategic mortgage options:
– Builder Rate Buydowns: Purchasing new construction homes where developers offer temporary or permanent interest rate buydowns to lower initial monthly payments.
– Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs): Selecting 5/1 or 7/1 hybrid ARMs with strict rate caps for short-to-medium-term housing plans.
– Points and Financing Structure: Evaluating upfront discount point purchases to secure lower fixed interest rates over the loan term.

Home Equity Utilization and Renovation Financing
For existing homeowners holding low-rate legacy mortgages, moving to a new property often entails relinquishing favorable debt terms. Consequently, many homeowners are choosing to renovate and expand existing properties rather than sell.

Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) and home equity loans allow homeowners to access accumulated property equity for capital improvements without disturbing their primary mortgage rate. Utilizing home equity for value-adding property renovations can enhance living space while increasing long-term property values.

Strategic Real Estate Investment Guidelines
For residential property investors, achieving positive cash flow requires strict underwriting standards:
– Stress-Test Operating Expenses: Factor in rising property insurance premiums, local property taxes, and ongoing maintenance reserves.
– Focus on High-Growth Rental Markets: Target regions experiencing steady job growth and sustained tenant demand.
– Maintain Cash Buffers: Ensure property portfolios maintain dedicated emergency reserves to navigate unexpected vacancy periods or major repairs.

Actionable Homeownership Steps
1. Evaluate Complete Monthly Housing Costs: Assess property taxes, homeowners insurance, and HOA fees alongside principal and interest.
2. Leverage Renovation Equity Carefully: Utilize equity loans strategically for renovations that generate long-term property value.
3. Prioritize Credit Score Optimization: Secure top-tier credit scores prior to mortgage pre-approval to qualify for competitive lender pricing tiers.

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$20,000 Caution Bond Requirement for US Visa Applications imposed on 50 Countries

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The United States Department of State has officially implemented a revised visa policy introducing a mandatory posting requirement for caution payments of up to $20,000 on select foreign travel applications. Under the updated regulatory framework, consular officials are authorized to require temporary nonimmigrant visa applicants from targeted foreign countries to post a refundable financial bond of $20,000 as a condition for visa issuance. The policy mechanism is designed to address diplomatic concerns regarding high overstay rates among temporary visitor, business, and educational visa categories.

The caution bond pilot program applies selectively to foreign nationals from designated countries whose diplomatic entities record historical visa overstay rates exceeding established federal thresholds. Under administrative guidelines published by the State Department, the full financial deposit is posted directly to a dedicated federal escrow account prior to final visa issuance. The entire caution payment is automatically refunded to the applicant upon verified proof of timely departure from the United States in strict compliance with the authorized duration of stay. Conversely, failure to depart within the legal timeframe results in full forfeiture of the posted financial bond to the United States government.

Diplomatic representatives and travel policy experts have expressed varying perspectives regarding the operational implementation of the caution bond system. Administration officials emphasize that the measure serves as an effective, market-based incentive to enforce international travel compliance and preserve domestic immigration security standards. However, international trade organizations and foreign diplomatic missions have raised concerns regarding the financial burden imposed on legitimate business travelers, foreign students, and commercial partners from developing nations.

The United States finalized the rule to make the temporary visa bond program permanent, taking effect on August 3, 2026. The updated permanent regulation replaces the prior 12-month pilot, eliminates the lowest $5,000 tier, and raises the maximum required bond amount to $20,000 for specific B-1/B-2 business and tourist visa applicants.

Here is the list of the 50 countries on the list as o August 3, 2026

African Nations (31 Countries)

  • Algeria
  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burundi
  • Cabo Verde (Cape Verde)
  • Central African Republic
  • Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)
  • Djibouti
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • The Gambia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Malawi
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Nigeria
  • São Tomé and Príncipe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Tanzania
  • Togo
  • Tunisia
  • Uganda
  • Zambia
  • Zimbabwe

Asian & Eastern European Nations (11 Countries)

  • Bangladesh
  • Bhutan
  • Cambodia
  • Georgia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Mongolia
  • Nepal
  • Papua New Guinea
  • Tajikistan
  • Turkmenistan
  • Uzbekistan

Caribbean & Latin American Nations (5 Countries)

  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Grenada
  • Venezuela

Oceanian Nations (3 Countries)

  • Fiji
  • Tonga
  • Vanuatu

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Next-Generation Retirement Planning: Managing Longevity Risk and Variable Income Streams

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Retirement planning strategies are evolving in 2026 to address increased life expectancies, shifting dynamic market conditions, and the transition away from traditional defined-benefit pensions. Individual investors and financial advisors are abandoning rigid retirement models in favor of flexible, multi-asset strategies designed to mitigate longevity risk and preserve purchasing power over multi-decade retirement horizons.

Mitigating Longevity Risk with Dynamic Asset Allocation
As average life expectancies extend past eighty-five years, one of the primary financial risks facing retirees is outliving their accumulated wealth. Traditional fixed income allocations—such as the standard 60/40 equity-to-bond portfolio—are being reevaluated to ensure portfolios generate sufficient capital growth alongside reliable income.

Financial planners recommend maintaining a meaningful equity allocation throughout retirement to offset long-term inflation erosion. High-dividend equity funds, global real estate investment trusts (REITs), and inflation-indexed Treasuries are combined to create diversified portfolios that deliver both growth and income stability.

The Transition to Dynamic Withdrawal Strategies
The classic “4% safe withdrawal rule” is increasingly replaced by dynamic withdrawal strategies that adapt annually based on market performance. Under a dynamic withdrawal framework, retirees adjust their annual distribution rates within pre-set caps and floors:
– Market Upside: During strong market returns, retirees can increase discretionary spending or fund family legacy gifts.
– Market Downturns: During market pullbacks, spending distributions are temporarily reduced to prevent sequence-of-returns risk and preserve core investment principal.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Options and Deferred Annuities
To establish a guaranteed baseline for essential living expenses, individuals are incorporating modern fixed-indexed and deferred longevity annuities into their broader retirement architectures. Modern annuity structures offer competitive return caps, transparent fee schedules, and inflation-adjustment options.

By funding essential expenses—such as housing, healthcare, and insurance—with guaranteed income streams from Social Security, pensions, and annuities, retirees can manage discretionary investment portfolios with greater flexibility and lower emotional stress during market volatility.

Actionable Steps for Future Retirees
1. Calculate Baseline Retirement Expenses: Determine fixed living costs and map guaranteed income sources to cover essential expenditures.
2. Adopt Flexible Withdrawal Rules: Implement dynamic spending rules to protect investment principal against market downturns.
3. Incorporate Inflation-Protected Assets: Maintain exposure to dividend-growing equities and inflation-indexed bonds to safeguard long-term purchasing power.

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