People walk past digital billboards at the Moynihan Train Hall displaying a new initiative from New York Governor Kathy Hochul titled ‘New York Wants You’, a program designed to recruit and employ displaced federal workers across New York State, in New York, U.S., March 3, 2025.
David Dee Delgado | Reuters
Mixed signals lately from the labor market are adding to angst for investors already on a knife’s edge over the potential threat that tariffs pose to inflation and economic growth.
Depending on the perspective, employers either are cutting workers at the highest rate in years or skating by with current staffing levels.
What has become clear is that workers are increasingly uncertain of their employment status and less prone to seek other opportunities, at the same time as job hunters are reporting it harder to find new positions, according to several recent surveys.
The sentiment indicators counter otherwise solid numbers showing up in more traditional data points like nonfarm payrolls growth and the jobless rate, which is still at a level historically associated with full employment and a bustling labor market.
Sound fundamentals
“Fundamentally speaking, things are still relatively sound in the United States. That doesn’t mean there are no cracks,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “You can just whistle past that and just hang your hat on the payrolls report, or recognize that the payrolls report is a lagging indicator and some of those other indicators that give you a better flavor of what’s happening under the surface are looking softer by comparison.”
Markets will get another snapshot of labor market health when the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its February nonfarm payrolls report Friday at 8:30 ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect growth of 170,000 jobs, up from 143,000 in January, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%.
While that represents a stable labor market, there are a number of caveats that point to more difficult times ahead.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that layoff announcements from companies soared in February to their highest monthly level since July 2020. A big reason for that move was the effort by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to cull the federal workforce. Challenger reported more than 62,000 DOGE-related cuts.
DOGE actions as well as other labor survey indicators showing worker angst likely won’t be reflected in Friday’s jobs number, primarily due to the timing of the cuts and the methodology the BLS uses in its twin counts of household employment and jobs filled at the establishment level.
Consumer confidence drop
But a recent Conference Board report showed an unexpectedly large drop in consumer confidence that coincided with a spike in respondents expecting fewer jobs to be available as well as harder to get. Similarly, a University of Michigan’s survey saw a slide as respondents worried about inflation.
In the world of economics, such fears can quickly become self-fulfilling prophecy.
“If workers don’t feel confident that they’re going to be able to find a new job … then that’s going to be reflected in the economy, and the same in terms for how willing employers are to hire,” said Allison Shrivastava, economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “Don’t ever discount sentiment.”
In recent days, economists have been ramping up the potential impact for DOGE cuts, with some saying that multiplier effects involving government contractors could take the total labor force reduction to half a million or more.
“They’re going to have some trouble being reabsorbed into the economy,” Shrivastava said. “It also does shake people’s confidence and sentiment, which can certainly impact the actual economy.”
For now, Goldman Sachs said the DOGE cuts probably will lower the headline payrolls number by just 10,000 or so and exepcts weather-related impacts to be small. Overall, the bank said the current picture, according to alternative figures, is one of “a firm pace of job creation, and we expect continued, albeit moderating, contributions from catch-up hiring and the recent surge in immigration.”
In addition to the employment numbers, the BLS will release figures on pay growth. Average hourly earnings are expected to show a 0.3% monthly gain, up 4.2% from a year ago and about 0.1 percentage point above the January level.
Alicia Love typically purchases the most popular beans for Coffee Labs Roasters in a one-year deal with her coffee importer. But at the end of last year, prices were so high that she decided to wait the market out.
Instead, prices climbed even higher. With supplies running low, she signed a purchase order for a three-month supply, and hopes that prices will soon ease.
“At the time I thought, should we wait to sign this new deal?” Love, an owner of the Tarrytown, New York, business, told CNBC. “I’m kicking myself in the butt now for not doing it then.”
The initial deal would have cost Love roughly $4 per bag, which is for either 130 pounds or 152 pounds, depending on the variety. The three-month deal she just signed was for roughly $5 per bag.
The skyrocketing cost of coffee comes as egg prices are also rising without any end in sight. Both products are pillars of an American breakfast, which has long been one of the cheaper meals to eat either at home or on the go. The quickly escalating prices means consumers are changing their habits and businesses are scurrying to react.
A rapid rise
In the latest consumer price index report, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed the price of eggs in the U.S. up 53% year over year. But the pace of gains has been rapid. From December to January, the average cost of a dozen spiked 15%, per FRED data. In the week ended March 3, a 7% week-over-week increase brought average prices above $8 a dozen, JPMorgan Chase said.
While egg production is suffering from a devastating avian flu outbreak, which has resulted in the culling of millions of hens. Some say the consolidation of the industry is exacerbating the problem. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Department of Justice opened an investigation into antitrust practices that might be at play.
Coffee, meanwhile, is also reaching record-high prices. A dry spell in Brazil, which has hit crop yields, is largely at fault. Over the past 12 months, futures prices have more than doubled. Last month, coffee prices on the Intercontinental Exchange surpassed $4 per pound for the first time ever.
Futures trading for coffee has spiked over the past 12 months.
“I’m hoping that we just have stability in the market. It’s very challenging to navigate the volatility, and the consumers are going to struggle with that,” said Andrew Blyth, coffee trading operations manager at Royal New York. “You can’t have menu prices changing once a month, especially for something as … routine as coffee.”
Consumers have gotten the message. Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note that its survey of consumer sentiment signaled the first negative reading since June 2024. This follows the University of Michigan’s own survey from February that showed consumers expect inflation to get worse in the near term.
Breakfast as a whole was already stretching consumers wallets in recent years, according to Robert Byrne, senior director of consumer research at Technomic’s food service segment.
“Speaking of breakfast more broadly, over the past few years we have seen affordability ratings for family-style chains (IHOP, Cracker Barrel,Denny’s, etc.) under greater pressure than what is reported across other restaurant segments,” Byrne said, in an interview.
That’s caused diners to shift their behavior, Byrne said.
“Breakfast is the easiest to either replace with something simple from home or even skip altogether,” Byrne said. He added, a recent Technomic survey found, on average, consumers use some type of foodservice for breakfast roughly 1.2 times per week.
“With inflation impacting all consumers – even affluent diners are pulling back on frequency – the thought is consumers are skipping other types of occasions and instead saving up for a weekend splurge, which probably is a dinner,” he said.
Technomic’s research also shows consumers are walking away from more routine breakfast orders at quick service options like Dunkin’ or McDonald’s. Byrne said, when they do go now, it’s often either an “impulse” order or a substitute for a splurge at a restaurant.
Profits under pressure
The impact is being felt across the restaurant industry. Dine Brands, the parent of breakfast staple IHOP, has seen its stock pull back more than 13% this year and shares hit a 52-week low on Wednesday after providing a disappointing 2025 outlook. The majority of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a hold rating.
“For IHOP … we’re expecting sort of low to mid single-digit inflation cost for the year. And that’s really primarily – it’s really driven by eggs,” Dine Brands Chief Financial Officer Vance Chang said on the company’s earnings call. “Outside of that, I think there’s some headwinds with bacon and coffee as well.”
Dine Brands expects domestic same-store sales for IHOP to be in the range of down 1% to up 2% for fiscal 2025.
Facing similar pressures, Waffle House and Denny’s recently imposed a surcharge for menu items containing eggs as opposed to a straight up price hike. Byrne said such a move may be more bearable for consumers because it’s assumed the surcharge is a temporary increase. McDonald’s has held the line and said the company will not implement an egg surcharge.
Restaurant stocks that offer robust breakfast menu items have been hit hard over the past year, with the exception of McDonald’s.
“My sense is that consumers may appreciate that it is noted as a temporary surcharge rather than a blanket price increase, as this implies that prices will return when the situation changes,” Byrne said. “On the flip side, printing menus is expensive and an operator may not be in a position to do so quickly.”
Restaurant stocks have well underperformed the market over the past year. McDonald’s is an outlier with a 10% gain over the past year, but Denny’s stock has plummeted more than 55% and Cracker Barrel has fallen 38% over the same period.
The impact of tariffs
More bad news could be coming for coffee drinkers. Coffee Labs’ Love said some decaffeinated coffee travels back and forth over the U.S. border and could be impacted by proposed tariffs.
She explained that if a roaster is using a washing method to decaffeinate their coffee, the mountain water used in the process comes from Mexico, but pre-roasted beans can be sent to Canada for processing. This means President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada could add a new layer of price pressures.
“This cost will show across the board ,” Love said. “The Canada tariff will make decaf coffee cost a lot more on top of the already high price.”
Blyth is less sure that decaf coffee will be hurt by the White House’s trade policy, but signaled there is still a lack of clarity.
“As of now we don’t believe it would incur a tariff, but we just don’t know yet. Hopefully there is more guidance in the coming days to help navigate the unknowns,” Blyth said.
Eggs are displayed for sale in a Manhattan grocery store on Feb. 25, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
The U.S. Justice Department has opened an investigation into potential antitrust issues related to the surging price of eggs, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The investigation, which is in its early stages, includes a look at whether large egg producers have worked together to raise prices or reduce supply, the report said.
The news comes as the price of eggs has soared, leading some restaurants to announce menu changes and reports of grocery stores with empty shelves. For example, Denny’s announced last month that it was passing along rising egg costs to customers in the form of a surcharge.
In the latest consumer price index report, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed the price of eggs up 53% year over year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the cost of eggs rose 15.2% just between December and January — this marked the largest increase in the eggs index since June 2015.
The price increases appear to be at least in part due to an outbreak of avian flu that has led egg producers to cull their populations. However, advocacy group Farm Action sent a letter last month to the DOJ and Federal Trade Commission, calling for an investigation into other causes.
CNBC has not independently confirmed that this investigation is ongoing. The Justice Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.