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China’s $41 billion plan to boost consumption is just a start

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QINGDAO, CHINA – JANUARY 08: Customers browse at an electronics shop amid an ongoing nationwide trade-in subsidy program on January 8, 2025 in Qingdao, Shandong Province of China.  

Zhang Ying | Visual China Group | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s latest move to boost consumption isn’t meant to jolt all kinds of spending.

Policymakers last week doubled subsidies for a consumer trade-in program to 300 billion yuan ($41.47 billion) this year, matching market expectations — and again steering clear of cash handouts. The subsidies will go toward around 15% to 20% of the purchase price for select products, including mid-range smartphones and home appliances.

That’s an expansion from last year’s 150 billion yuan program, announced in the summer, for a narrower range of products.

The new round of subsidies are “pretty substantial” and will likely support retail sales, similar to how e-commerce companies saw a sales boost in certain products late last year, Jacob Cooke, co-founder and CEO of WPIC Marketing + Technologies, told CNBC on Monday.

While there’s skepticism that the impact of a one-time subsidy won’t last long, Cooke said more subsidy programs will likely follow. He added that China’s “aggressive” 5% GDP growth target and prioritization of consumption indicate that Beijing will do more to support growth — without relying as much on the old playbook of infrastructure spending.

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Chinese Premier Li Qiang last week delivered an annual report on government work that named boosting consumption as the top task for the year ahead.

That’s the first time in a decade that Beijing has given consumption such high priority, said Laura Wang, chief China equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. She added that the government work report cited “consumption” 27 times — the most mentions in a decade.

While Beijing has not followed the U.S. or other countries in handing out cash to consumers, Chinese policymakers have increasingly acknowledged the need to counter deflationary pressure at home.

China must focus more on domestic demand given the possibility of “new shocks” to overseas demand, Shen Danyang, head of the drafting group of the Government Work Report and director of the State Council Research Office, told reporters Wednesday in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

China’s retail sales grew by 3.5% last year, a sharp slowdown from 7.2% growth the prior year. In a sign of a persistent drop in demand, China’s consumer price inflation in February fell below zero for the first time in over a year, according to official data released Sunday.

If prices are too low, it becomes difficult to incentivize businesses to invest and increase consumers’ income, Chen Changsheng, member of the drafting group of the Government Work Report and deputy director of the State Council Research Office, said at the same press conference on Wednesday.

He noted that the work report called for four tasks to address the depressed prices: expanding fiscal support, working to lift consumption, using regulation to prevent price wars and making a greater effort to stabilize real estate prices.

Real estate accounts for the majority of household wealth in China. A crackdown on property market leverage in 2020 spurred a slump that only started to turn around late last year — after a high-level policy call in September to halt the real estate sector’s decline.

Stabilizing real estate can have a significant effect on boosting consumption, similar to wealth effects from a rise in the stock market, said Meng Lei, China equity strategy analyst at UBS Securities, noting expectations that the mainland China A share market has become more strategically important.

Stocks have rallied after China’s stimulus announcements in recent months.

The 300 billion yuan for the subsidies comes from an increase in ultra-long special government bonds for 2025. China said last week it is raising its deficit to 4% as it pursues “proactive fiscal policy.”

NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 19: The Chinese flag flies outside the New York Stock Exchange during the initial price offering (IPO) for Alibaba Group on September 19, 2014 in New York City. The New York Times reported yesterday that Alibaba had raised $21.8 Billion in their initial public offering so far. 

Andrew Burton | Getty Images News 

Also helping sentiment are signs that Beijing appears to be turning more business friendly. Chinese President Xi Jinping held a rare meeting with entrepreneurs last month.

Once businesses are more confident, they can hire more and increase wages. The Chinese premier at the high-level meeting last week vowed more efforts to promote residents’ income growth and ease financial burdens for low-to-middle income groups.

The officials pledged more support for the care of the elderly, children and the broader healthcare system, steps seen critical to bolster the country’s safety net, allowing residents to feel comfortable spending more.

To a certain extent, these measures can help to reduce living costs and release potential consumption, said Pan Xiang, a macro foreign exchange analyst at Nanhua Futures.

Incremental pivot

Economists have long called for a structural re-calibration of the income distribution system and policies seen necessary to stimulating domestic consumption in a meaningful way.

The recent pledges signal that “the door [is] cracking open” yet still “very gradual movement of the leadership toward being comfortable with doing more direct support for consumption,” said Michael Hirson, a fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

“We’re not really there yet in terms of a very forceful push,” he added.

Before more support comes, an underdeveloped social safety net, a gloomy job market and low wages have spurred households to save rather than spend, Hirson said.

Household spending accounts for less than 40% of China’s GDP, significantly lower than the international average of roughly 60%, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

EVs, films, tourism

A look at an implementation plan, released Wednesday, from the National Development and Reform Commission reveals how China is thinking about boosting consumption.

The portion describing tasks for 2025 starts with an entire section on boosting consumption and investment. The report calls for efforts to “increase spending power” and encourage the development of products and scenarios that would encourage consumers to spend.

But it’s not a call to support all kinds of shopping.

Top of mind for policymakers is retail sales of “big-ticket items,” according to the report. China also said it would reduce restrictions on real estate transactions and automobile purchases.

Part of the plan includes developing the experience economy — immersive scenarios that combine film, video games, tourism and traditional Chinese culture — similar to the surge in tourists to historical sites associated with last year’s hit video game “Black Myth: Wukong.”

BEIJING, CHINA – JANUARY 15: People queue up in outside a Miniso store to buy co-branded goods featuring characters from the game ‘Black Myth: WuKong’ on January 15, 2025 in Beijing, China. Miniso and ‘Black Myth: WuKong’ launch co-branded products on January 15. 

Yi Haifei | China News Service | Getty Images

Chinese authorities also said they would improve “mechanisms for regular pay increases” along with the system for paid vacation days. Employees in China typically get fewer than 10 paid days off and several public holidays include days that must be made up by working for part of a weekend.

The report also discussed the continued plan for subsidizing consumer good trade-ins and upgrading equipment.

But two parts of the sub-section focused more on investment — developing talent, infrastructure and ecological projects — as well as building up “security capacity” in basic research for tech innovation and domestic food supplies.

China will soon release a more detailed plan for boosting consumption, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters Thursday.

Preliminary data indicates a sales boost from China’s initial 81 billion yuan in consumption subsidies announced in January, ahead of the this month’s parliamentary meeting.

Retail sales of new energy vehicles, for which buyers enjoy trade-in subsidies of up to 15,000 yuan, surged almost 80% to 686,000 units in February from a year earlier, data from China’s auto industry body showed on Monday.

Smartphone sales for the week of Jan. 20 to Jan. 26 surged by nearly 65% from the year-ago period to more than 9.5 million units, “and maintained a high level in the following weeks,” Counterpoint Research said in a late February report.

The analysis said subsidies are likely encouraging Chinese consumers to replace their smartphones earlier than planned, especially when artificial intelligence features are gaining prominence. The firm estimates the first-quarter subsidy to generate at least two to three points of additional growth this year in China’s smartphone sales.

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DeepSeek AI cranks open the spigots on Chinese venture capital

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BEIJING — DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence breakthrough is stirring up China’s venture capital world after three straight years of decline.

As DeepSeek released its OpenAI rival in late January, AI drug discovery company Insilico Medicine was finalizing a $110 million series E financing round led by Hong Kong-based Value Partners, the startup’s CEO and founder Alex Zhavoronkov told CNBC in an exclusive interview. The deal closed last month.

But so many Chinese funds wanted to participate at the last minute — “like an avalanche” — that Insilico is planning a series “E2” raise, Zhavoronkov said. “We have never seen this level of interest before.”

Qiming Ventures-backed Insilico uses AI from DeepSeek and other companies to create models for developing drugs. Ten of the startup’s drugs have already received approval for clinical tests, according to Insilico, which lists research labs in China, the U.S. and the Middle East.

Zhavoronkov added that during his U.S. travels in the last few weeks, many U.S. and other global investors have asked him about ways to invest in Chinese AI companies.

“It looks like the DeepSeek moment, it created a lot of interest from global investors to invest in China,” he said Monday. “I think the funding is going to come back.”

The AI-driven big rally that U.S. market had the last 2 years is what China is starting to have now

Regulatory uncertainty in both China and the U.S., especially around IPOs, and slow economic growth have contributed to a sharp drop in Chinese venture capital activity in recent years. VC investment into China-based companies has fallen for the last three years, reaching just $48.86 billion in 2024, the lowest on record going back to at least 2016, according to Pitchbook data.

Now, as regulatory clarity emerges, sentiment is changing — and encouraging investors to take a different approach to the past, when internet-based startups such as Alibaba emerged.

“People are rushing just to find the next DeepSeek,” said Annabelle Yu Long, founding and managing partner of BAI Capital in Beijing. She also sits on the board of Coach parent Tapestry.

“Everybody is making investments, but I am asking my team to hold on new deals, because we see our core portfolio [of around 6 companies] are gaining very, very meaningful AI traction,” she said, noting that her firm is opting to increase its investments in existing holdings in coming months.

Part of her call stems from her view that Chinese funds have far less capital than U.S. ones to invest in AI, requiring a targeted approach. Instead of looking at new startups, Long said she expects entrepreneurs who are already using AI well to succeed in the near future.

For example, BAI Capital-backed Black Lake, which sells manufacturing management systems, has become profitable this quarter because AI has lowered service costs, Long said. Another of her investments, a healthcare company called Lejian, has become more profitable with the help of AI, and Goldman Sachs is preparing its IPO, she added.

Long said she plans to list nine portfolio companies this year, mostly in Hong Kong, and has received many calls from international investors about China’s economy and Chinese entrepreneurship beyond AI. “I definitely see a return of confidence.”

Other recent investment rounds also reflect how capital is piling into existing players. Insilico’s Zhavoronkov said some Chinese investors had previously lost nearly all their money on AI drug startups, and now recognize that only a few, likely more established, players will make it.

This month, AI model company Zhipu AI raised the equivalent of around $137.68 million from Alibaba Cloud and a Hangzhou city-backed fund, according to PitchBook’s records of 12 AI deals for the first 10 days of March. The data also showed robotics company LimX Dynamics raised an undisclosed amount from Alibaba Group and other investors.

A holiday turning point

China’s Lunar New Year in late January marked a turning point for AI investment. DeepSeek’s R1 model came out just before the holiday, while state media’s widely broadcast Spring Festival gala showcased dancing robots from Unitree.

“I think Unitree and DeepSeek encourage a lot of foreign investors to try to seek opportunities here,” said Hongye Wang, executive director at Shenzhen-based Forebright Capital, which has funds denominated in the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan. He noted that some Middle East funds have recently been looking for opportunities in Chinese AI companies.

“I believe confidence [is] coming back,” he said of domestic VCs, noting many were traveling again for meetings.

Wang said his firm has invested in a company that makes cellphone chargers and AI glasses, and is looking for opportunities in humanoid robots, along with companies that provide solutions for computing reasoning. Forebright, which Wang says has several billion U.S. dollars in assets under management, plans to make at least five to six investments this year, he said.

Policy support

Importantly for a market that’s been hit by regulatory crackdowns, Beijing is signaling clear support.

“The fact that President Xi [Jinping in February] shook the hand of DeepSeek’s founder and pretty much gave the green light for generative AI to be used at scale, now you should expect a massive number of DeepSeek-like clones … that will be popping out and just disclosing what they have been doing over the past three years,” Zhavoronkov said.

Premier Li Qiang’s work report last week said China would work to “accelerate the development of venture capital investment and the growth of patient capital,” referring to long-term investment.

A day after Li presented that plan, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters the central government is planning a fund that’s expected to mobilize 1 trillion yuan ($137.7 billion) for tech investment. Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng announced at the same press conference that a loan program for tech innovation would nearly double to as much as 1 trillion yuan.

“From early stage investment to exit, policy is more complete and clearer,” Liu Rui, vice president of China Renaissance Capital, said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

He expects more resources to go toward AI applications this year, given the faster-than-expected decline in model operating costs and China’s large consumer base.

Tensions with the U.S. — ranging from tariffs to tech restrictions — remain a hurdle for international investors contemplating China AI opportunities, however.

Unlike U.S.-based companies that can access the global market, China-based ones will also likely find it harder to expand abroad given the sensitivities around AI and data, said Xuhui Shao, Palo Alto-based managing partner at Foothill Ventures. His firm focuses on the U.S. and doesn’t invest in China.

Even with the potential of China’s large market, foreign investors need to understand the risks of investing in China, such as restrictions on capital flow, Shao said. But he pointed out that “innovative breakthroughs” such as DeepSeek shouldn’t be a surprise given that China has many college-educated engineers and data scientists, who can represent half of the AI researchers at an industry conference.

“I think,” he said, “competition always pushes the whole sector [to move] forward and technology would not be contained by borders.”

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Most of the S&P 500 is already in correction territory as benchmark teeters near milestone

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A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell in New York City on March 10, 2025. 

Charly Triballeau | Afp | Getty Images

The majority of the stocks in the S&P 500 are already in correction territory as the sell-off on Wall Street continues to drag the benchmark closer to that key threshold.

As of Monday’s close, 366 S&P 500 components or 73% were trading 10% or more below their respective 52-week highs, which means they have already suffered a correction. A total of 203 components closed more than 20% below 52-week highs as of Monday, meaning they are in bear market territory.

The S&P 500 is in the red again Tuesday, sitting about 9% below its 52-week high reached on Feb. 19. The market decline accelerated in the past week as President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs stoke fears of slowing economic growth and even a recession.

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S&P 500

Five out of 11 S&P 500 sectors are in correction territory – consumer discretionary, tech, communication services, materials and energy.

The biggest laggards in the S&P 500 include drug maker Moderna and the highly volatile artificial intelligence play Super Micro Computer, which have fallen 79% and 69% from their record highs, respectively.

First Solar, Intel, Enphase Energy, Dollar Tree, Estee Lauder and Tesla have all declined at least 50% from their recent peaks.

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Ron Baron says he won’t sell a single personal Tesla share despite nosedive

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Ron Baron, founder of Baron Capital.

Anjali Sundaram | CNBC

Billionaire investor Ron Baron is standing by Elon Musk’s Tesla even in the face of its dramatic sell-off. The stock plunged 15% on Monday, its biggest one-day loss since September 2020.

“I can’t believe how cheap they are, things that we look at,” Baron said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Tuesday. “I was thinking we would make four times over the next 10 years. I think we’re gonna make more than that now from these prices.”

The Baron Capital chair and CEO first invested $400 million in Tesla between 2014 and 2016, and that early bet has made him billions of dollars as the EV company gained mainstream acceptance. Tesla represented 12% of Baron’s entire portfolio across different funds at the end of 2024.

Tesla shares have been on a roiller coaster ride since Musk went to Washington, D.C. to take on a major role in the second Trump White House. Tesla just suffered a seventh straight week of losses, its longest weekly decline since debuting on the Nasdaq in 2010.

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Tesla shares in 2025.

Baron Capital trimmed its Tesla position in the second quarter last year because the holding had gotten too big in its portfolio. Baron vowed that his personal Tesla shares would be the last he would touch when it comes to portfolio management.

“I’m the last in, I’ll be the last out. So I won’t sell a single share personally until I sell all the shares for clients, and that’s what I’ve done,” he said.

Musk admitted Monday he is running his businesses “with great difficulty,” as he took on the role of heading Trump’s advisory Department of Government Efficiency, which is engaged in a broad, controversial effort to reduce federal government spending and slash employee headcount at dozens of agencies.

“I would hope that he would be a little less visible, but he feels that this is the way he’s going to get things done,” Baron said of the 53-year-old Musk. “He is more charged up about his business now than he’s ever been.”

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