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Fed likely to hold rates steady, but some borrowing costs are easing

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Recession risks are a little overblown, according to Societe Generale's U.S. Rates Strategy Head

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting next week, despite some encouraging news on inflation. 

Although inflation receded last month, an escalating trade war threatens to cause prices to rise on a wide range of consumer goods going forward.

“This is likely just the beginning with tariffs on Europe and universal ones to follow suit over the coming weeks,” Andrzej Skiba, head of U.S. fixed income at RBC Global Asset Management, said in an email. “This will be inflationary, and the Fed won’t likely be able to cut rates in this environment.”

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The federal funds rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects many of the borrowing and savings rates Americans see every day.

“Consumers are stretched and stressed,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Once the federal funds rate comes down, consumers may see their borrowing costs decrease across a variety of consumer debt such as auto loans, credit cards and mortgages, making it cheaper to borrow money. 

But even with the Fed on the sidelines for now, households could see some relief. Already, rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards are edging lower. Still, these rates remain relatively elevated compared to recent highs, with credit card APRs down only slightly from an all-time record. 

Here’s a look at where consumer borrowing costs stand.

Mortgages

Although 15- and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed, and largely tied to Treasury yields and the economy, rates have been trending lower for weeks.

Worries about a possible recession and increased uncertainty over President Donald Trump‘s tariff plans have soured consumers’ outlook and dragged down rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“The good news is that even though the Fed has taken its foot off the gas when it comes to rate cuts, mortgage rates have fallen,” said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is now 6.77%, down from 7.04% at the beginning of the year, according to Bankrate.

Credit cards

Most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark.

But even though the central bank held rates at the last few meetings, the average annual percentage rate has moved lower too — it’s currently, down to 20.09%, from 20.27% at the start of the year, thanks to the lingering effects of last year’s rate cuts

“March was the sixth straight monthly decline, but the decreases have slowed as Fed rate cuts get further back in the rearview mirror,” Schulz said of credit card APRs.

In the meantime, credit card debt continues to be a pain point for consumers struggling to keep up with high prices. Revolving debt, which mostly includes credit card balances, is up 8.2% year over year, while nonrevolving debt, such as auto loans and student loans, is 3% higher, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest consumer credit report.

Auto loans

Although auto loan rates are fixed, those payments continue to grow because car prices are rising, in addition to pressure from trade policy uncertainty.

“That’s troubling news for potential car buyers, who are already beset on all sides by high rates and high prices and also face the possibility of tariffs pushing car costs even higher,” Schulz said.

However, auto loan rates have also backed down from recent highs. The average rate on a five-year new car loan is now 7.42%, down from 7.53% in January, according to Bankrate.

Student loans

Federal student loan rates are fixed, as well, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic turmoil.

Undergraduate students who took out direct federal student loans for the 2024-25 academic year are paying 6.53%, up from 5.50% in 2023-24. Interest rates for the upcoming school year will be based in part on the May auction of the 10-year Treasury note.

Private student loans tend to have a variable rate tied to the prime, Treasury bill or another rate index.

Savings

On the upside, top-yielding online savings accounts have offered the best returns in more than a decade and currently pay 4.4%, on average, according to Bankrate.

While the Fed holds rates steady, “savings rates really haven’t changed all that much, that’s the good news,” said Bankrate’s McBride. “Savings rates are still at attractive levels and the top yields are still well in excess of inflation.”

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Social Security benefits at risk for defaulted student loan borrowers

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Social Security beneficiaries are at risk of receiving a smaller benefit if they’ve fallen behind on their student loans.

The Trump administration recently announced it would move to offset defaulted student loan borrowers’ federal benefits, and warned that payments could be garnished as soon as June.

That involuntary collection activity could have serious consequences on those who rely on the benefits to pay most, if not all, of their bills, consumer advocates say.

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There are some 2.9 million people age 62 and older with federal student loans, as of the first quarter of 2025, according to Education Department data. That is a 71% increase from 2017, when there were 1.7 million such borrowers, according to the data.

More than 450,000 borrowers in that age group are in default on their federal student loans and likely to be receiving Social Security benefits, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found.

Here’s what borrowers need to know.

Up to 15% of Social Security benefits can be taken

Social Security recipients can typically see up to 15% of their monthly benefit reduced to pay back their defaulted student debt, but beneficiaries need to be left with at least $750 a month, experts said.

The offset cap is the same “regardless of the type of benefit,” including retirement and disability payments, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

The 15% offset is calculated from your total benefit amount before any deductions, such as your Medicare premium, Kantrowitz said.

Little notice provided

Student loan borrowers facing offsets of their federal benefits seem to be getting less notice under the Trump administration, Kantrowitz said.

While a 65-day heads-up used to be the norm, it seems the Education Department is now assuming borrowers who are in default were already notified about possible collection activity prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, he said.

“The failure of the U.S. Department of Education to provide the 65-day notice limits the ability of borrowers to challenge the Treasury offset of their Social Security benefit payments,” Kantrowitz said.

Still, borrowers should get at least a 30-day warning, Kantrowitz said. The notice should be sent to your last known address, so borrowers should make sure their loan servicer has their most recent contact information.

The Education Department provided defaulted federal student borrowers with the required notice, a spokesperson told CNBC after collections efforts resumed May 5.

“The notice may be sent only once, and borrowers may have received this notice before Covid,” the spokesperson said.

You can still contest offset

Once you receive a notice that your Social Security benefits will be offset, you should have the option to challenge the collection activity, Kantrowitz said. The notice is supposed to include information on how you can do so, he said.

You may be able to prevent the offset if you can prove a financial hardship or have a pending student loan discharge, Kantrowitz added.

“Borrowers who receive these notices should not panic,” said Nancy Nierman, assistant director of the Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program. “They should reach out for help as soon as possible.”

Getting out of default

The best way to avoid the offset of your Social Security benefits is to get current on your loans, said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors, a nonprofit.

You can contact the government’s Default Resolution Group and pursue several different avenues to get out of default, including enrolling in an income-driven repayment plan.

“If Social Security is their only income, their payment under those plans would likely be zero,” Mayotte said.

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How to save for college in a volatile market

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“Markets go up and down, but students’ goals remain the same,” said Chris McGee, chair of the College Savings Foundation.

529 plan popularity has soared

In 2024, the number of 529 plan accounts increased to 17 million, up more than 3% percent from the year before, according to Investment Company Institute.

Total investments in 529s rose to $525 billion as of December, up 11% from a year earlier, while the average 529 plan account balance hit a record of $30,961, data from the College Savings Plans Network, a network of state-administered college savings programs, also showed.

The industry is coming off its best year ever in terms of new inflows,” said Richard Polimeni, head of education savings at ‎Merrill Lynch.

However, “in terms of the current market volatility, that creates some concern,” he added.

Student loan matching funds

Even as concerns over college costs are driving more would-be college students to rethink their plans, college savings accounts are still as vital as ever.

Roughly 42% of students are pivoting to technical and career training or credentialing, or are opting to enroll in a local and less-expensive community college or in-state public school, according to a recent survey of 1,000 high schoolers by the College Savings Foundation. That’s up from 37% last year. 

As a result of those shifting education choices, 69% of students are expecting to live at home during their studies, the highest percentage in three years. 

Despite those adjustments, some recent changes have helped make 529 plans even more worthwhile: As of 2024, families can roll over unused 529 funds to the account beneficiary’s Roth individual retirement account, without triggering income taxes or penalties, so long as they meet certain requirements.

Restrictions have also loosened to allow 529 plan funds to be used for continuing education classes, apprenticeship programs and student loan payments. For grandparents, there is also a new “loophole,” which allows them to fund a grandchild’s college without impacting that student’s financial aid eligibility.

Managing 529 allocations in a volatile market

For parents worried about their account’s recent performance, Mary Morris, CEO of Commonwealth Savers, advises checking the asset allocation. “What you need to think about is assessing your risk appetite,” she said.

Generally, 529 plans offer age-based portfolios, which start off with more equity exposure early on in a child’s life and then become more conservative as college nears. By the time high school graduation is around the corner, families likely have very little invested in stocks and more in investments like bonds and cash. That can help blunt their losses.

Pay attention to your fund’s approach toward shifting from stocks to bonds, Morris said.

“If you are in a total stock portfolio, you may not want that ride,” she said: “You don’t want to get seasick.”

If the market volatility is still too much to bear, consider adjusting your allocation.

“One strategy is to start de-risking a portion of their portfolio and reallocate a portion into cash equivalent, which will provide a protection of principle while also proving a competitive return and peace of mind,” Polimeni said.

Still, financial experts strongly caution against shifting your entire 529 balance to cash. “The worst thing an investor can do in a down market is panic and sell investments prematurely and lock in losses,” Polimeni said.

Often that is the last resort. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, only 10% of investors liquidated their entire 529 accounts, and 20% switched to less risky assets, according to an earlier survey by higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

How to help 529 assets recover

For those who must make a hefty withdrawal for tuition payments now due, Polimeni suggests considering using income or savings outside the 529 to cover immediate college expenses, and requesting a reimbursement later.

You can get reimbursed from your 529 plan for any eligible out-of-pocket expenses within the same calendar year. “Using that strategy gives another six to seven months for the market to recover,” Polimeni said.

Another option is to tap a federal student loan and take a qualified distribution from the 529 plan to pay off the debt down the road. However, if you’re thinking of taking out private student loans or a personal loan that starts incurring interest immediately, you may want to spend 529 funds first in that case, and defer that borrowing until later.

Once you have a withdrawal plan, you can — and should — keep contributing to your 529, experts say. Not only can you get a tax deduction or credit for contributions, but earnings will grow on a tax-advantaged basis, whether over 18 years or just a few.

“The major advantage is the tax-deferred growth, so the longer you are invested, the more tax-deferred growth you will have,” Polimeni said.

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House Republican tax plan debate kicks off. What to watch

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President Donald Trump waits for the arrival of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House in Washington, DC, on May 6, 2025.

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Debate for the House Republicans’ tax bill is underway — and experts are watching to see which of President Donald Trump’s priorities make the final cut.

The House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over tax, released the full text of its portion of the bill Monday afternoon, and started to debate over provisions on Tuesday.

GOP lawmakers included several of Trump’s campaign priorities, including tax cut extensions, no tax on tips and tax-free overtime pay. Rather than cutting taxes on Social Security, the plan includes an extra $4,000 deduction for older Americans.

The early bill did not include a higher tax rate on some of the wealthiest Americans or plans to end the so-called “carried interest loophole,” which are both ideas that Trump supported.  

However, the final bill could change significantly before the committee vote.

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The early version of the GOP tax bill would cost about $3.7 trillion over 10 years, according to estimates from the Joint Committee on Taxation. That’s under the Republicans’ $4.5 trillion limit, which could leave room for other priorities to be added or increased during Tuesday’s negotiations, experts say. 

“It’s really important for any additional tax cuts to be paid for,” which will impact individual provisions, said Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center.

As the debate heats up, here are two key areas to watch.

The battle over the ‘SALT’ deduction

Watch CNBC's full interview with Senate Majority Leader John Thune

Child tax credit boost

Republican lawmakers also want to expand the child tax credit, a change that was passed via a bipartisan House bill in February 2024.

TCJA temporarily increased the maximum child tax credit to $2,000 from $1,000 per child under age 17, and boosted eligibility. These changes are scheduled to sunset after 2025.

The preliminary House GOP text calls for raising the credit to $2,500 per child through 2028, as long as both parents have a Social Security number. The $1,400 refundable portion, which is available without taxes owed, would be indexed for inflation.

However, the proposal “does nothing for the 17 million children who currently don’t get the full $2,000 child tax credit because their families’ incomes are too low,” said Chuck Marr, vice president for federal tax policy for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.  

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