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China retail sales strengthen at start of 2025, industrial data beats

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Pictured here is a Shanghai development under construction on Nov. 4, 2024.

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images

China’s economy showed a modest pickup for the first two months of the year, according to data published Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, as Beijing reiterated its plan to bolster domestic consumption.

Retail sales rose by 4.0% in the January-February period from a year ago, compared with the 3.7% year-on-year growth in December and in line with Reuters estimates.

Industrial production climbed 5.9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago, slower than the 6.2% growth in December, but faster than a 5.3% expansion forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.

Fixed asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, rose by 4.1%, beating the 3.6% growth estimated by economists, a notable jump from the 3.2% increase last year.

The data comes shortly after Chinese policymakers unveiled a wide-ranging plan to stimulate domestic consumption, reiterating Beijing’s pledges to bolster residents’ income and household spending.

The notice, published Sunday, repeated Beijing’s plan to stabilize the stock market, establish a childcare subsidy scheme as well as boosting tourism.

While the high-level document appears to lack concrete implementation details, it provides a glance into Beijing’s stance toward addressing some deep-seated issues, such as the slowing income growth and insufficient social safety net, Lynn Song, chief China economist at ING, told CNBC via email.

“Directionally it is quite encouraging that policymakers are taking a sober look at these themes, and it should help the longer term transition to a consumption driven economy,” he added.

Growth target

Chinese leadership took on a hefty task by keeping a growth target of “around 5%” this year, a target seen harder to reach given rising trade tensions with the U.S. and entrenched deflationary pressure for the economy.

Economists say Beijing will likely need to provide stronger stimulus to achieve this year’s growth target and bolster domestic consumption to fill the hole left by potentially slowing exports. Exports contributed nearly a quarter of China’s GDP last year.

In a sign of a persistent drop in demand, China’s consumer price inflation in February fell below zero for the first time in over a year. Beijing revised down its annual inflation target to “around 2%” — the lowest in more than two decades — from above 3% in prior years, a move seen to show a degree of official acceptance of the current deflationary environment.

As part of an expanded fiscal package, Chinese leaders pledged at an annual parliamentary meeting earlier this month an additional 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) of ultra-long special treasury bonds for consumers’ subsidy support.

Still, beyond the trade-in program, the existing stimulus measures have barely targeted consumers directly.

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Buffett hikes stakes in five Japanese trading houses to almost 10% each

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Warren Buffett speaks during the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, on May 4, 2024.

CNBC

Warren Buffett’s love for Japanese stocks grows fonder even as he increasingly sells U.S. equities.

The 94-year-old investor’s Berkshire Hathaway holding company raised its holdings in five Japanese trading houses —  Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo — by more than 1 percentage point each, to stakes ranging from 8.5% to 9.8%, according to a regulatory filing.

The “Oracle of Omaha” said in his 2024 annual letter that Berkshire is committed to its Japanese investments for the long term and has reached an agreement with the companies to go beyond an initial 10% ceiling.

All five are the biggest “sogo shosha,” or trading houses, in Japan that invest across diverse sectors domestically and abroad — “in a manner somewhat similar to Berkshire itself,” Buffett said. Berkshire first bought into the companies in the summer of 2019. 

Part of the investment strategy involves Buffett hedging currency risk by selling Japanese debt and then pocketing the difference between dividends from the investments and the bond coupon payments he has to make to service the debt.

At the end of 2024, the market value of Berkshire’s Japanese holdings came to $23.5 billion, at an aggregate cost of $13.8 billion. The investor praised the companies’ managements, relationships with their investors and their capital deployment strategies. 

Buffett first unveiled the Japanese positionsd on his 90th birthday in August 2020 after making regular purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, saying he was “confounded” by the opportunity and was attracted to the trading houses’ dividend growth.

In 2023, Buffett even paid a visit to Japan with his designated successor Greg Abel and met with the heads of the Japanese firms. He said he’d like Berkshire to own the companies forever.

The student of famed investor Benjamin Graham has been aggressively selling U.S. stocks and growing his record cash pile to $334 billion. Berkshire sold more than $134 billion worth of stocks in 2024, largely by shrinking the size of Berkshire’s two largest equity holdings — Apple and Bank of America.

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Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: AFRM, NFLX, INCY

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Klarna, nearing IPO, wins fintech partnership from Affirm

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Sebastian Siemiatkowski, CEO of Klarna, speaking at a fintech event in London on Monday, April 4, 2022.

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg via Getty Images

Swedish fintech firm Klarna will be the exclusive provider of buy now, pay later loans for Walmart, taking a coveted partnership away from rival Affirm, CNBC has learned.

Klarna, which just disclosed its intention to go public in the U.S., will provide loans to Walmart customers in stores and online through the retailer’s majority-owned fintech startup OnePay, according to people with knowledge of the situation who declined to be identified speaking about the partnership.

OnePay, which updated its brand name from One this month, will handle the user experience via its app, while Klarna will make underwriting decisions for loans ranging from 3 months to 36 months in length, and with annual interest rates from 10% to 36%, said the people.

The new product will be launched in the coming weeks and will be scaled to all Walmart channels by the holiday season, likely leaving it the retailer’s only buy now, pay later option by yearend.

The move heightens the rivalry between Affirm and Klarna, two of the world’s biggest BNPL players, just as Klarna is set to go public. Although both companies claim to offer a better alternative for borrowers than credit cards, Affirm is more U.S.-centric and has been public since 2021, while Klarna’s network is more global.

The deal comes at an opportune time for Klarna as it readies one of the year’s most highly-anticipated IPOs. After a dearth of big tech listings in the U.S. since 2021, the Klarna IPO will be a key test for the industry. It’s private market valuation has been a rollercoaster: It soared to $46 billion in 2021, then crashed by 85% the next year amid the broader decline of high-flying fintech firms.

CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski has worked to improve Klarna’s prospects, including touting its use of generative AI to slash expenses and headcount. The company returned to profitability in 2023, and its valuation is now roughly $15 billion, according to analysts, nearly matching the public market value of Affirm.

For Affirm, the move is likely to be seen as a blow at a time when tech stocks are particularly vulnerable. Run by CEO Max Levchin, a PayPal co-founder, the company’s stock has surged and fallen since its 2021 IPO. The lender’s shares have dipped 18% this year.

Affirm executives frequently mention their partnerships with big merchants as a key driver of purchase volumes and customer acquisition. In November, Affirm chief revenue officer Wayne Pommen referred to Walmart and other tie-ups including those with Amazon, Shopify and Target as its “crown jewel partnerships.”

An Affirm spokesman declined to comment.

Everything app

The deal is no less consequential to Walmart’s OnePay, which has surged to a $2.5 billion pre-money valuation just two years after rolling out a suite of products to its customers.

The startup now has more than 3 million active customers and is generating revenue at an annual run rate of more than $200 million.

As part of its push to penetrate areas adjacent to its core business, Walmart executives have touted OnePay’s potential to become a one-stop shop for Americans underserved by traditional banks.

Walmart is the world’s largest retailer and says it has 255 million weekly customers, giving the startup — which is a separate company backed by Walmart and Ribbit Capital — a key advantage in acquiring new customers.

Last year, the Walmart-backed fintech began offering BNPL loans in the aisles and on checkout pages of Walmart, CNBC reported at the time. That led to speculation that it would ultimately displace Affirm, which had been the exclusive provider for BNPL loans for Walmart since 2019.

OnePay’s move to partner with Klarna rather than going it alone shows the company saw an advantage in going with a seasoned, at-scale provider versus using its own solution.

The Walmart logo is displayed outside their store near Bloomsburg.

Paul Weaver | Lightrocket | Getty Images

OnePay’s push into consumer lending is expected to accelerate its conversion of Walmart customers into fintech app users. Cash-strapped consumers are increasingly relying on loans to meet their needs, and the installment loan is seen as a wedge to also offer users the banking, savings and payments features that OnePay has already built.

Americans held a record $1.21 trillion in credit card debt in the fourth quarter of last year, about $441 billion higher than balances in 2021, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.

Next up is likely a OnePay-branded credit card offered with the help of a new banking partner after Walmart successfully exited its partnership with Capital One.

“We’re looking forward to going down this new path where not only can they provide installment credit … but also revolving credit,” Walmart CFO John David Rainey told investors in June.

— CNBC’s MacKenzie Sigalos and Melissa Repko contributed to this report.

Klarna files to go public on NYSE under 'KLAR'

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