Connect with us

Finance

Slower economic growth is likely ahead with risk of a recession rising, according to the CNBC Fed Survey

Published

on

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill on February 11, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey have raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, cut their growth forecast for 2025 and raised their inflation outlook.

Much of the change appears to stem from concern over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which are now seen by them as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The outlook for the S&P 500 declined for the first time since September.

The 32 survey respondents, who include fund managers, strategists and analysts, raised the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January. The January number had dropped to a three-year low and looked to have reflected initial optimism following the election of President Trump.  But like many consumer and business surveys, the recession probability now shows considerable concern about the outlook.

“We’ve had an abundance of discussions with investors who are increasingly concerned the Trump agenda has gone off the rails due to trade policy,” said Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics. “Consequently, the economic risks of something more insidious than a soft patch are growing.”

“The degree of policy volatility is unprecedented,” said John Donaldson, director of fixed income at Haverford Trust.

The average GDP forecast for 2025 declined to 1.7% from 2.4%, a sharp markdown that ended consecutive increases in the three prior surveys dating back to September. GDP is forecast to bounced back to 2.1% in 2026, in line with prior forecasts.

“The risks to consumers’ spending are skewed to the downside,” said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. “Alongside a frozen housing market and less spending across state and local governments, there is meaningful downside to current estimates of 2025 GDP.”

Fed rate cut outlook

Most continue to believe the Fed will cut rates at least twice and won’t hike rates, even if faced with persistently higher prices and weaker growth. Three-quarters forecast two or more quarter-point cuts this year. Part of the reason is that two-thirds believe that tariffs will result in one-time price hikes rather than a broader outbreak of inflation. But the policy uncertainty has created a wider range of views on the Fed than normal with 19% believing the Fed won’t cut at all.

Still, higher tariffs and weaker growth are a dilemma for the Fed.

“Powell is really stuck here because of the tariff overhang,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer, Bleakley Financial Group. “If he gets more worried about growth because of them and cuts rates as unemployment rises but then Trump removes all the tariffs, he’s jumped the gun.”

More than 70% of respondents believe tariffs are bad for inflation, jobs and growth. 34% say tariffs will decrease US manufacturing with 22% saying they will result in no change. Thirty-seven percent of respondents believe tariffs will end up in greater manufacturing output. More than 70% believe the DOGE effort to reduce government employment is bad for growth and jobs but will be modestly deflationary.

“A global trade war, haphazard DOGE cuts to government jobs and funding, aggressive immigrant deportations, and dysfunction in DC threaten to push what was an exceptionally performing economy into recession,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Analytics.

Continue Reading

Finance

Investor Ric Edelman reacts to crypto ETF boom

Published

on

Ric Edelman cuts through crypto confusion specifically for the long-term investor

Bitcoin’s milestone week comes as new crypto exchange-traded funds are hitting the market.

Investor and best-selling personal finance author Ric Edelman thinks the rollout gives investors more access to upside.

He finds buffer ETFs and yield ETFs particularly exciting.

“You can now invest in bitcoin ETFs that protect you against the downside volatility while preserving your ability to enjoy the upside profits,” Edelman told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.” You can generate massive amounts of yield, much more than you can in the stock market.”

Edelman is the founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, which educates financial advisors on cryptocurrencies. He is also in Barron’s Financial Advisor Hall of Fame.

“Crypto is meant to be a long-term hold, just like the stock market,” said Edelman. “It’s meant to diversify the portfolio.”

His thoughts came as a bitcoin rally got underway. The cryptocurrency crossed $100,000 on Thursday for the first time since February. As of Friday’s close on Wall Street, bitcoin gained 6% this week. It is now up almost 10% so far this month.

However, Edelman sees problems when it comes to leverage and inverse bitcoin ETFs. He warned that not all crypto ETFs are appropriate for retail investors, suggesting most don’t understand how they work.

‘Same thing as buying a lottery ticket’

“These leveraged ETFs often have an assumption you’re going to hold the fund for a single day, a daily reset,” he said. “That’s literally the same thing as buying a lottery ticket. This isn’t investing.”

During the same interview, “ETF Edge” host Bob Pisani referenced 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) as an example of a leveraged bitcoin product that includes daily fees and resets.

The fund is beating bitcoin this week, jumping more than 12%. So far this month, the ETF is up 19%. But the BITX is underperforming bitcoin this year. It is up about 1.5%, while bitcoin is up roughly 10%.

Volatility Shares is the ETF provider behind BITX.

The company writes on its website: “The Fund is not suitable for all investors … An investor in the Fund could potentially lose the full value of their investment within a single day.”

Continue Reading

Finance

America failing its young investors, warns financial guru Ric Edelman

Published

on

Legendary investor Ric Edelman on why financial literacy hasn't improved in a generation… and what can be done.

One of the most recognized names in personal finance is urging Americans to increase their financial literacy, and urging the country to do a better job of providing the education. 

“We spend a lot of time trying to improve financial literacy. We stink at it,” said Ric Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Engines, on this week’s CNBC “ETF Edge.”

Edelman believes the problem is rooted in the fact the U.S. has never had a great tradition of encouraging smart personal finance, and he says it has never been more important to fix, given how long people are now living. That increases the risks related to running out of money later in life and creates serious questions about standard investing models for long-term financial security, such as the 60-40 stock and bond portfolio.

“We are the first generation, as baby boomers, that will live long lives as part of the norm,” Edelman said. “Everyone before us, our parents and grandparents mostly died in their 50s and 60s. You didn’t have to plan for the future, because you weren’t going to have one,” he added.

One of his biggest concerns with the current generation of young investors is that they seem to believe in get-rich-quick schemes. Many of the new investing websites have been too encouraging of risky strategies that lure young investors in, he says, promoting financial gambling rather than investing. Options and zero-day options have become a significant part of the daily trading landscape in the last several years. According to data from the New York Stock Exchange, the percent of retail traders participating in the options market approached the 50% mark in 2022. In 2024, options volume hit an all-time record.

Edelman says younger generations should be wary of a corporate America that makes consumer finance more complicated than it should be, which includes the manufacturing of overly sophisticated and expensive financial products. “They want to make it complex, to make you a hostage rather than a customer,” he said. 

He also cautions young investors to make sure they are getting information about personal finance from credible sources. “When so many are getting their financial education from TikTok, that’s a little scary,” he said.

Edelman believes the cards are stacked against young investors because of the lack of high schools mandating a course in personal finance. “The only way we discover the issues of money is through the school of hard knocks as adults, and we’re over our heads when it comes to buying a car, getting a mortgage, insurance and saving for college” he said. 

That situation is improving for the next generations of adults. Utah was the first state to require a personal finance course for high school graduation in 2004, and the list grew to include 11 states by 2021. As of this year, 27 states now require high school students to take a semester-long personal finance course for graduation, according to Next Gen Personal Finance. 

Another big challenge for young investors is they often don’t have a lot of money to invest, with many recent college graduates struggling to pay bills and left with little to put towards other financial goals. But there is at least one reason to be hopeful about younger Americans, Edelman says: they are highly motivated to reach financial success.

“Today’s youth looks at their parents and sees how poorly they were prepared for retirement. They don’t want that to be their future” he said.

ETF Edge: New crypto ETFs, 60/40 investing and bond ETFs

Continue Reading

Finance

Powell may have a hard time avoiding Trump’s ‘Too Late’ label even as Fed chief does the right thing

Published

on

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 7, 2025.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

History suggests that President Donald Trump’s new “Too Late” nickname for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has a strong chance of coming true, though he’d hardly be alone if it does.

After all, central bank leaders have a long history of being too reluctant to raise or lower interest rates.

Whether it was Arthur Burns keeping rates too low in the face of the stagflation threat during the 1970s, Alan Greenspan not responding quickly enough to the dotcom bubble in the ’90s, or Ben Bernanke’s dismissal of the subprime housing prices as “contained” and not lowering rates prior to the 2008 financial crisis, Fed leaders have long been criticized as slow to act absent compelling data showing them something needs to be done.

So some economists think Powell, faced with a unique set of challenges to the Fed’s twin goals of full employment and low inflation, has a strong chance of wearing the “Too Late” label.

In fact, many of them think nothing is exactly what Powell should do now.

“Historically, go back and look at any Federal Reserve, and I’m going back into the ’70s, the Fed is always late both ways,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “They tend to wait. They want to wait to make sure that they won’t make a mistake, and by the time they do that, usually it is too late. The economy is almost always in recession.”

The Fed will have to get back in the business of forecasting, says New Century's Claudia Sahm

However, he said that given the volatile policy mix, with Trump’s tariffs threatening both growth and inflation, Powell has little choice but to sit tight absent more clarity.

Powell is in a no-win situation, with threats to both sides of the Fed mandate, “and that’s why he’s doing the exact right thing at this moment, which is nothing, because one way or another it’s going to be a mistake,” North said.

Trump wants a cut

Though Trump said the economy probably will be fine no matter what the Fed does, he has been badgering the central bank lately to cut rates, insisting that inflation has been slayed.

In a Truth Social post after the Fed decision this week to keep rates unchanged, Trump declared that “Too Late’ Jerome Powell is a FOOL, who doesn’t have a clue.” The president declared there is “virtually NO INFLATION,” something that was true for March at least when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in unchanged for the month.

However, the president’s tariffs have yet to be felt in the real economy, as they are barely a month old.

Recent economic data do not indicate price spikes nor a perceptible slowdown in economic activity. However, surveys are showing heightened worries in both the manufacturing and service sectors, while consumer sentiment has soured, and nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies mentioned tariff concerns on their quarterly earnings calls.

At this week’s post-meeting news conference, though, Powell repeatedly voiced confidence in what he called a “solid” economy and a labor market “consistent with maximum employment.”

No ‘pre-emptive’ cuts

The 72-year-old Fed chair also dismissed any idea of a pre-emptive rate cut, despite what sentiment survey data is indicating about current conditions.

“Powell offered two reasons for not being in a hurry. The first – ‘no real cost to waiting’ – is one he may live to regret,” Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a client note. “The second – ‘we are not sure what the right thing will be’ – makes more sense.”

Powell has his own particular history of being late, with the Fed reluctant to hike when inflation began spiking in 2021. He and his colleagues labeled that episode “transitory,” a call that came back to haunt them when they had to institute a series of historically aggressive hikes that still have not brought inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.

“If they’re waiting for the labor market to confirm whether they should cut rates, by definition they’re too late,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities and a senior economic advisor to Trump in his first term. “I don’t think the Fed is being forward-looking enough.”

Indeed, if the Fed is using the labor market as a guide, it almost certainly will be behind the curve. An old adage on Wall Street says, “the labor market is the last to know” when a recession is coming, and history has been fairly consistent that job losses generally don’t start until after a downturn has begun.

LaVorgna thinks the Fed is hamstrung by its own history and will miss this call as well, as policymakers unsuccessfully try to game out the impact of tariffs.

“We’re not going to know if it’s too late until it’s too late,” he said. “Economic history combined with current market pricing suggests there’s a real risk the Fed will be too late.”

Fed Chair Powell: I’ve never asked for a meeting with any president and I never will

Continue Reading

Trending